Math Question

[Amazin]

My homemade computer program returns a +15% R.O.I..The hit rate is 60% using 2 horses.Can anyone tell me a mathematical formula to figure out what the average odds are of the horses it's picking.Obviously some are too low(odds on and I'm losing money there,but I bet them as a cover to minimize the loss in case the other horse doesn't win).My point is to figure out what odds would be acceptable to raise the R.O.I. to say 30%.

[cj]

Are you serious? Let me get this straight. You are smart enough to write a computer program. The program is so good it produces a 15% profit. You are smart enough to calculate the hit rate and ROI. Yet, you can't figure out the answer to the question you asked? Sounds strange.

CJ:confused: :confused: :confused:

[cj]

To answer the question, if you are serious, your average winner is paying $7.66, which is 2.83 to 1.

CJ

[Amazin]

Cj

I didn't actually write the program.A friend and fellow horseplayer of mine who was curious about my ideas did at no charge.I told him exactly what I wanted I.E.Sartin and Brohamer figures etc.The first time we used it,it Nailed the K.Derby when the 10-1 and 60-1 ran 1st and second(forget their names a couple of years ago) It also nailed Valponi on top.This has exceeded myexpectations.However I have to give credit to Sartin and Brohamer.I combined their theories in a formula and it is powerful.But yes I'm dumb enough not figure out the math question.

[Amazin]

Cj

Thanks for the answer,but I was looking for the mathematical formula

[cj]

1.15 = Your ROI
60% is win %

I used a 100 race sample. Betting $2 on two horses each race, you bet $400. You would get back $460 based on your ROI. I took the $460 divided by 60, the number of winners you would have at your rate in the sample. This equals 7.66..., the average payoff. I'm sure it can be converted into a formula, I'll figure it out a little later if noone else already has.

CJ

[andicap]

I'm no math whiz,
but 60% winners with 2 horses bet is the equal of
a 30% win rate.
Out of every 100 races he wins 60. 2 horses a race so its 60/200=30%

.30 wins times 7.66 average price = 2.30 or 30 cents on $2 bet. Or $15 cents on the dollars.

right????

so its .30 times (X) = 2.30

if your profit goal is 30%

its. .30 times X -- 2.60

correct?????

[cj]

Andi

I was going by this:

My homemade computer program returns a +15% R.O.I..The hit rate is 60% using 2 horses.Can anyone tell me a mathematical formula to figure out what the average odds are of the horses it's picking.

To get his ROI to 30%, the average winner would have to pay 8.66..., or 3.33 to 1.

Sounds good on paper, good luck trying it though!

CJ

[rrbauer]

The average odds per play are:

.6n = 1.15

n = 1.15 / .6

n = 1.92

Based on the information provided you can't say much else.

[formula_2002]

the formula is;
Edge=win% x odds –(1-win%)

where edge= what most people call roi

.15=.60 x odds –(.40)
.55=.60 odds
ave odds= .916-1 (for combination of two horses)
odds= 1.83 for one horse. (providing they win equally)

For an edge of .30 at the same win rate

.30=.60 odds
ave odds= .50 -1 for two horses
odds = 1-1 for one horse

Joe M