Challenging the Premises [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Capper Al

04-13-2008, 09:34 AM

I pushed the following idea back in September 2007 in this forum, and it wasn't popular.

Here's a typical response from our own PaceAdminster. Others responded with similar.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CapperAl
This supports my assertion that maybe all there is to pace analysis is that the horses are just trying to get out of the way of the dirt being flung in their face.

Yup, that's probably it....

Read Post #311:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=39585&page=21&pp=15

Shuback in the book Bet with the Best 2 - Longshots on page 204 embraces this idea. Challenging the premise is the only way to becoming a winner. Things change in racing and, when they do, one has to be ahead of the crowd to cash in on them. I believe what happened was that many saw a correlation with early speed and winning on dirt and incorrectly concluded that early speed was the universal bias. Tom Ainslie might have had it right. Speed is evaluated by analysing the pace that was overcame in gaining that speed figure. And that's the true value of Pace.

jonnielu

04-13-2008, 10:28 AM

Gibbon

04-13-2008, 01:48 PM

What if the pace is always a product of the varying abilities of those horses.... 'Sheet' player have held this to be an eternal truism. As I have weened myself off of the convoluted, intricately perplexing Sartin paradigm, I have concluded pace matters only in extreme cases. Most can often be explained by track speed, Jockey tactics or lack thereof, rail biases and current condition of a pack of horses. Also, on some occasions, broken WWII timing equipment!

__________________________________
I’ve been in one Derby, and this is my third Belmont. But I’ve never thought of the fact that I haven’t won a Triple Crown race. I’m not like that. I always look at the sunshine of things. ~ Julie Krone

Capper Al

04-13-2008, 02:16 PM

Quote:
What if the pace is always a product of the varying abilities of those horses....

'Sheet' player have held this to be an eternal truism. As I have weened myself off of the convoluted, intricately perplexing Sartin paradigm, I have concluded pace matters only in extreme cases. Most can often be explained by track speed, Jockey tactics or lack thereof, rail biases and current condition of a pack of horses. Also, on some occasions, broken WWII timing equipment!

Are you saying that the outcome of the Pace is more inherent in the herd as a whole than the individual horses?

Another view held by Ainslie (before he teamed up with Sartin) was that Pace was tactical and only reflects racing strategy. These two mentioned ideas could explain why horses will win a race with slower times than their par time for their class, and why a lesser class horse with superior speed will lose to a classier horse with slower time.

__________________________________
I’ve been in one Derby, and this is my third Belmont. But I’ve never thought of the fact that I haven’t won a Triple Crown race. I’m not like that. I always look at the sunshine of things. ~ Julie Krone[/QUOTE]

Kelso

04-13-2008, 03:05 PM

Are you saying that the outcome of the Pace is more inherent in the herd as a whole than the individual horses?

Another view held by Ainslie (before he teamed up with Sartin) was that Pace was tactical and only reflects racing strategy. These two mentioned ideas could explain why horses will win a race with slower times than their par time for their class, and why a lesser class horse with superior speed will lose to a classier horse with slower time.

Al,
Would you please expand upon the faster-but-lesser horse losing to a slower-but-classier horse proposition? I think it would be a very profitable insight to understand, but I don't see the logic yet.

Thank you.

Gibbon

04-13-2008, 03:55 PM

Are you saying that the outcome of the Pace is more inherent in the herd as a whole than the individual horses? I do believe in general track biases. Old dirt favors gate speed. New dirt favors late speed. To this handicapper, early or late #s are not as predictive as running style. I've seen to many slow E's beat faster gate horses.

I don't believe in analyzing one horse isolated from the rest of today's pack. Sheet player will play inferior numbers if it looks as though superior numbers are 'toping out.' Inferior #s have room for improvement while superior #s have little room for error.

Give me the sheets – give me any set of past performances – give me an understanding of local rail biases: I can play 5 tracks at once. See y'all for dinner.

Give a computer handicapper a set of data - an hour later still working the same race only to find a 9/5 shot using a dozen different screens. No thanks.

Sure 'puter capper have relayed anecdotal stories of 50/1 successes based on a personal favorite angle. Good for them. Personally, I play the races NOT a race.

chickenhead

04-13-2008, 04:02 PM

I love how unique some people think they are.

LottaKash

04-13-2008, 04:10 PM

[QUOTE=jonnielu]You are on the right track Al, challenging and questioning the current premises, is the short route to learning what is real and actual.

Reality is, that when you stop believing in it, IT doesn't go away.......

Capper Al

04-13-2008, 04:38 PM

Al,
Would you please expand upon the faster-but-lesser horse losing to a slower-but-classier horse proposition? I think it would be a very profitable insight to understand, but I don't see the logic yet.

Thank you.
The faster-but-lesser horse losing to a slower-but-classier horse is a common theme for class handicappers. Their point is that there is more to handicapping than just speed figures.

Capper Al

04-13-2008, 04:44 PM

I do believe in general track biases. Old dirt favors gate speed. New dirt favors late speed. To this handicapper, early or late #s are not as predictive as running style. I've seen to many slow E's beat faster gate horses.

I don't believe in analyzing one horse isolated from the rest of today's pack. Sheet player will play inferior numbers if it looks as though superior numbers are 'toping out.' Inferior #s have room for improvement while superior #s have little room for error.

Give me the sheets – give me any set of past performances – give me an understanding of local rail biases: I can play 5 tracks at once. See y'all for dinner.

Give a computer handicapper a set of data - an hour later still working the same race only to find a 9/5 shot using a dozen different screens. No thanks.

Sure 'puter capper have relayed anecdotal stories of 50/1 successes based on a personal favorite angle. Good for them. Personally, I play the races NOT a race.

It's even worse if you write handicapping programs or spreadsheets. You spend hours creating them first, before analysing the figures. It still comes down to does one have the picture of the coming race's match up? For example, the horse with the big speed figures might be coming off a layoff. What does this mean today?

Capper Al

04-13-2008, 04:50 PM

I love how unique some people think they are.

I don't know what you are getting at? I do know that I was out on a limb alone suggesting that the early speed universal bias might be wrong.

chickenhead

04-13-2008, 07:51 PM

I don't know what you are getting at? I do know that I was out on a limb alone suggesting that the early speed universal bias might be wrong.

It wasn't so much directed at you. The early speed universal bias is I believe just a shorthand, or a cute phrase, used to describe a phenomenon that is observed at almost every dirt track in existence. I never took it necessarily as an explanation of the phenomenon. That's just me, though.

Tom

04-13-2008, 07:53 PM

I guess the guys using BM that just came in the top of a handicaping contest, and the HTR guys, who do so regularly, are just lucky and would be better off without tose danged puter programs, huh?
Here's a premise - a lot of poeple don't have a clue what they are talking about. Challenge that one.

Tom

04-13-2008, 07:54 PM

The faster-but-lesser horse losing to a slower-but-classier horse is a common theme for class handicappers. Their point is that there is more to handicapping than just speed figures.
Show me an example.

GaryG

04-13-2008, 08:00 PM

Wasn't this subject beaten to death....and then some...on more than one other thread? Talk about beating a dead horse.....:bang:

Gibbon

04-13-2008, 08:48 PM

guys using BM .... top of a handicaping contest, and the HTR guys... So that explains why the both BM boards are dead. Everyone is making winning plays.
Winning tournaments is about risking barbaric plays on some lush longshots. If you're fortunate, you may hit. Daily play requires a calm temperament.

You've got a splendid sense of humor so I'll assume that was a joke. In any given year, tournament 'puter cappers finishing well are the exception. More prize monies have gone to sheet players than all other methodologies combined.

But, I love taken your money. That is why I peruse this BBS; need to know what my competition is using. Don't you find it at least curious sheet player need not advertise? Like I said in that massive BM tread - 6 months from now I'll find BM for fifty bucks on ebay.

Remember, it's not cockiness if you're doing it.

Steve 'StatMan'

04-14-2008, 01:23 AM

Quote=
Originally Posted by CapperAl
This supports my assertion that maybe all there is to pace analysis is that the horses are just trying to get out of the way of the dirt being flung in their face.

Yup, that's probably it....

-------------------------

Makes sense in an odd way - that is, it must be true, in that for a horse not on the lead to win he must rally past the leader on either side of them (or jumping a spill), but one can't win by running directly through them(!). Yes, the will be avoiding dirt, or turf diviots, powery all-weather-materials, loose flying shoes, etc. I'm not a devoted pace number man, but will agree I do know that the actual running, however it is measured, can make a difference in one or more competitors performances. I also know a horse needs a clean enough trip to get their before the others to win. How much is pace, kickback, raceriding and tactical positioning (or lack of it), I don't know. No horse, or rider likes having dirt kicked in their face - but who does? But I also think my head will explode if I think about this in great depth, so I'll just wish you and everyone best of luck and handicapping, and scurry off to the side again.

Donnie

04-14-2008, 02:02 AM

Winning tournaments is about risking barbaric plays on some lush longshots. If you're fortunate, you may hit. Daily play requires a calm temperament.

Tell this to John Buckley. He has won the Gold Coast Summer Classic 2 summers back-to-back. He is NOT a "longshot swinger". John is one of the calmest players I have EVER met.

In any given year, tournament 'puter cappers finishing well are the exception.

Let's see....Rich Goodall won $500K this past year (NTRA Champ). Massa won $150K the year before (2nd Place NTRA). Buckley's back-to-backs @ about $80K a pop (I believe)....Gordon Bergman and his wife took 3rd and 18th at the Orleans just a couple weekends back ($20K)......not to mention the day money that has been taken down by many in the past, myself included.....doesn't appear to be an exception....considering they all use HTR. (WAY too many more to mention. Explore this thread if you need anything more to dispel this inaccurate statement..... http://www.homebased2.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=11 )

jonnielu

04-14-2008, 07:15 AM

'Sheet' player have held this to be an eternal truism. As I have weened myself off of the convoluted, intricately perplexing Sartin paradigm, I have concluded pace matters only in extreme cases. Most can often be explained by track speed, Jockey tactics or lack thereof, rail biases and current condition of a pack of horses. Also, on some occasions, broken WWII timing equipment!

Pace always matters, but you will need a grip on the horses abilities to accurately predict its affects.

jdl

__________________________________
I’ve been in one Derby, and this is my third Belmont. But I’ve never thought of the fact that I haven’t won a Triple Crown race. I’m not like that. I always look at the sunshine of things. ~ Julie Krone[/QUOTE]

Capper Al

04-14-2008, 07:19 AM

Show me an example.

There's several examples in books. If I remember correctly, Beyer talks about one case in Picking Winners when at the races with a class handicapper.

Tom

04-14-2008, 07:22 AM

You mean you can't find a single example in real time, like this week?
Then why bother dicussing it if you have to go back 20 years to find an example?

Capper Al

04-14-2008, 07:46 AM

Wasn't this subject beaten to death....and then some...on more than one other thread? Talk about beating a dead horse.....:bang:
Isn't the pot calling the kettle black here? Wasn't this your same response everytime this subject came up? Talk about beating a dead horse.

What's new is how polytracks have proven the old idea of early speed being the universal bias as not working anymore. The DRF verified it in Bet with the Best 2 - Longshots. We're addressing challenging handicapping premises. It is my belief that this is necessary to winning over the long run.

;)

Capper Al

04-14-2008, 07:50 AM

Pace always matters, but you will need a grip on the horses abilities to accurately predict its affects.

jdl

Absolutely. One needs a comprehensive view of the field in today's race.

Capper Al

04-14-2008, 07:54 AM

You mean you can't find a single example in real time, like this week?
Then why bother dicussing it if you have to go back 20 years to find an example?

Sorry Tom. I just don't have the time to cap at the moment. For something more current, Modern Pace Handicapping has several examples were Pace figures point to the horse with the slower time.

chickenhead

04-14-2008, 10:34 AM

What's new is how polytracks have proven the old idea of early speed being the universal bias as not working anymore.

Polytack is not dirt. If polytrack can "disprove" such a thing about dirt, then Turf disproved it long ago. Which of course doesn't make any sense, as dirt hasn't changed.

chickenhead

04-14-2008, 10:49 AM

Frontrunners are going to have some things in their favor over any course, all things being equal.

They get to set the pace, sometimes a pace that suites them very well
They don't get blocked
They don't get stuff kicked in their face
They can take the shortest route
They are already in the front, a precursor to winning.

this is offset by

They have no cover
They may have to set a pace that is too fast for them
The inside may be deep

those things should be true pretty much over any surface. But then the surface itself seems to have biases, which are then exaggerated probably by two things:

jockey tactics
self reinforcement in breeding

if a surface is very tiring and favors short bursts of speed over extended sprinting, the horses who are best at that are going to win and get bred to the best, which on the average passes on those traits, it gets reinforced as a trait of the better horses. Likewise is a surface is not as tiring and favors extended sprinting. And the jockeys know the surface tendencies, so they try to make it work in their favor also.

I don't think there is any one thing that makes a surface run one way or the other, it's multiple offsetting things layered on top of one another. But the root of it, to me, seems to be how tiring the surface is, and track configuration.

GaryG

04-14-2008, 10:53 AM

The point is this: Horses with tactical speed win FAR more than their fair share of dirt races. If you back a deep closer, except under certain circumstances, you are very likely to lose. As for computer program users, there are more than a few of them on this board who will be writing large checks today or tomorrow.

chickenhead

04-14-2008, 12:13 PM

But, I love taken your money. That is why I peruse this BBS; need to know what my competition is using. Don't you find it at least curious sheet player need not advertise?

I've always heard that Sheets money runs the NY pools. So if anything, to my way of thinking, Sheets players are no minority at all in NY, you're running with the crowd. And if sheets players do compusively ignore pace, and comprise such a large handle, it might explain why the AQU Inner routinely ranks amongst the most profitable meets of pace figure players that I've spoken with.

Any narrow methodology is going to have blind spots. Sheets figures included.

njcurveball

04-14-2008, 01:22 PM

. More prize monies have gone to sheet players than all other methodologies combined.

.

Film at 11! :jump:

Tom

04-14-2008, 02:29 PM

More prize monies have gone to sheet players than all other methodologies combined.

Any data to support this? Last three years would be sufficient.
Seems to me, everytime I see a tourney winner, he is a BRIS user! :lol:

Gibbon

04-14-2008, 03:21 PM

Rich Goodall D. this is not true and you know it. Goodall only recently began exploring computer apps. Bris has him all over their monthly newsletter as a pen and paper handicapper.

I've always heard that Sheets money runs the NY pools. So if anything... No. Sheet player dominate ALL major pools around the country.

...if sheets players do compusively ignore pace, and comprise such a large handle, it might explain why the AQU Inner routinely ranks amongst the most profitable meets of pace figure players that I've spoken with.... Yep, that will be the day. A collection of two dollar player producing 40% win rates on favs. Racing at major venues has become sharks feeding on barracudas. At AQU/BEL/SAR the two hundred dollar player is considered a crack head. I have yet to meet a pace player manipulating and intimidating the pools. And yes chicky, I am in a position to know.

chickenhead

04-14-2008, 03:29 PM

Sheet player dominate ALL major pools around the country.

If true, is the best reason not to use the Sheets I've ever read. Amazing how you's guy's can consider yourself both avante garde minority contrarians feeding of the legion of the dumb masses, ALL non-Sheets cappers included, AND claim to comprise the majority of all major pools.

Sorry pal, you can't have it both ways.

chickenhead

04-14-2008, 03:54 PM

Racing at major venues has become sharks feeding on barracudas.

My ROI at AQU Inner the last two years was around +20% using pace figs. Maybe if you use the same data as the majority of money in the pools it looks like sharks and barracudas...it looks more like a bunch of blind cave fish (sometimes) to others.

I guess that's the beauty of having a contrary opinion....even if you're only a crackhead. Or, a chickenhead....whatever the case may be.

Fastracehorse

04-14-2008, 04:03 PM

Donnie

04-14-2008, 05:18 PM

D. this is not true and you know it. Goodall only recently began exploring computer apps. Bris has him all over their monthly newsletter as a pen and paper handicapper.

Recent or not, here are some quotes......

Here he thanks his wife, BRIS and HTR.
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=nhcix_recap_2007

Here is a story covered by Dave Tuley, freelance writer for the DRF....
http://www.homebased2.com/forums/showthread.php?p=70589#post70589
Notice the quote of "HTR took my game to a new level."

I figure Rich is like a lot of people, they use multiple inputs, and rightfully so he thanked all those inputs. Likewise, I take nothing away from non-computer users.

But, Gibbon, to say that "....computer users scoring high in tournaments is the EXCEPTION".....??? I see too many times, and more and more frequently, the computer users are scoring, and scoring well!

Understand that BRIS is a MARKETING MACHINE!! If I or you were to win a tournament, they will spin it that I have been a 8+year subscriber to Bris Products....sorry...I think I have downloaded their data once or twice. You have to become a member to play their online tournaments! That is the extent of my "being a BRIS subscriber". BRIS is not about to give a competitor (HTR) credit for assisting in the score. Just plain business sense. It's their newsletter, they'll spin it how they please. (and I am NOT suggesting that BRIS didn't have a hand in the fine job Rich displayed! )

Gibbon

04-14-2008, 06:41 PM

I’m going back to old time handicapping. Too many modern methodologies using sophisticated tools, a contrarian would use the old DRF sp + variant. Keys to the mint.

Everything old is new again.

Donnie forgive me but I must ask. Do you have a vested interest in HTR?

______________________________
Man is a gaming animal. He must always be trying to get the better in something or other. ~ Charles Lamb

PaceAdvantage

04-14-2008, 06:45 PM

The @HTR tag is a vestige of an inter-board contest held a number of years ago....I'm pretty sure he doesn't have a vested interest in HTR other than user. Though I could be wrong.

Capper Al

04-14-2008, 06:47 PM

Are U saying the premise being challenged is that of pace??

I would assert that pace 'not being a formidable factor', would be a bolder premise to be challenged.

I could argue that pace is like time - not always a fair evaluation. However, pace figures are like speed figures - truer purveyors of the past.

fffastt
Challenge any premise you like to. I still believe speed figures are the single best inidcator for today's winner. Yes, speed isn't always fair.

Donnie

04-14-2008, 07:33 PM

Gibbon-
No, I do not have a vested interest in HTR. Mike is correct in that my handle here was the result in taking part in an online contest here.
We are closer than you imagine. My favorite screen is the FIGs2 Screen. A simulation of the Sheets. I don't know that I was the first to press Ken to include such a screen, but I am a BIG promoter of that screen. I have been a subscriber for 8 years, and as Rich was quoted, HTR as taken my game to a new level.
War story:
4 or 5 years ago @ the Gold Coast Summer Classic, Ken and I split a ticket and he had me quarterback the picks. His name was on the ticket. We came in 5th out of 793 entries. I didn't realize it, but I sat down at a table with Len Friedman at it. He was absorbed in a novel he was reading, so I didn't wish to pester him with small talk. He left before the tourney ended and stopped short before leaving and came over to wish me luck. He was totally aware of our progress, although he never let on. I learned a lot from their book, and some of my best scores have come at this time of year and their advice of 3 yr olds. Toal respect from me!

NYPlayer

04-14-2008, 07:36 PM

Any data to support this? Last three years would be sufficient.
Seems to me, everytime I see a tourney winner, he is a BRIS user! :lol:

Anyone who's ever downloaded any charts is a "BRIS user".

I'll gladly say anything if they pay me! :D

riskman

04-14-2008, 11:08 PM

My ROI at AQU Inner the last two years was around +20% using pace figs. Maybe if you use the same data as the majority of money in the pools it looks like sharks and barracudas...it looks more like a bunch of blind cave fish (sometimes) to others.

I guess that's the beauty of having a contrary opinion....even if you're only a crackhead. Or, a chickenhead....whatever the case may be.

Yours is not a contrarian opinion. My ROI is very close to yours using pace capping at Acq. inner.

"Man standing on toilet is high on pot." Confucious

46zilzal

04-15-2008, 04:42 AM

chickenhead

04-15-2008, 10:09 AM

Yours is not a contrarian opinion. My ROI is very close to yours using pace capping at Acq. inner.

Sheets money dominates the pools, therefore the sheets view of things is the majority opinion. If you're focused on pace, you're in the minority.

Congrats on your success!

jasperson

04-15-2008, 10:51 AM

I do believe in general track biases. Old dirt favors gate speed. New dirt favors late speed. To this handicapper, early or late #s are not as predictive as running style. I've seen to many slow E's beat faster gate horses.

I don't believe in analyzing one horse isolated from the rest of today's pack. Sheet player will play inferior numbers if it looks as though superior numbers are 'toping out.' Inferior #s have room for improvement while superior #s have little room for error.

Give me the sheets – give me any set of past performances – give me an understanding of local rail biases: I can play 5 tracks at once. See y'all for dinner.

Give a computer handicapper a set of data - an hour later still working the same race only to find a 9/5 shot using a dozen different screens. No thanks.

Sure 'puter capper have relayed anecdotal stories of 50/1 successes based on a personal favorite angle. Good for them. Personally, I play the races NOT a race.

I don't know if you would call me a computer handicapper,but I use the computer to hack the data and present it to me. My program can hack the data much faster than the printer can print it. This all takes about 1 min. per track and I am ready to go to the track and play between 3 and 5 tracks per day. Andy Beyers state in one of his books the question is not how fast did the horse run but how did the horse run fast. Meaning taking in track bias, pace and trip. I suspect the sheets do this and that is a advantage. I haven't used them, because of the expense. As with any data that we get it is how we use it to predict the outcome of the race. We all have pp data and some of us use it to make a profit but most don't, and that is difference.
Jack

Capper Al

04-16-2008, 06:33 PM

I saw a study once on the web. I don't know how creditable it is. It followed a couple hundred races and compared Beyer figs, the Sheets, Trackmasters, and others. They varied a lot from race to race. Amazingly in the end, they all averaged out about the same for picking winners and in the money horses. Does anyone have any current data on this?

04-16-2008, 06:38 PM