Woodside Associates - Race Of The Week

[john del riccio]

The Henry Kuck Ratings for The Arkansas Derby this saturday at OP are available at the link below. Good Luck.


John

http://www.woodsideassociates.com/r...heweek/rotw.pdf (http://www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf)

[john del riccio]

ere are my initial thoughts on the field.


VICTORY PETE shows no races or workouts on dirt. He appears to be distance limited as
the 1 1/8 mi. distance may be just beyond his scope.

TRES BORRACHOS has only one race on dirt that wasn't bad but he too appears to be
questionable at the 1 1/8 mi. distance.

SHEKINAH brokes his nw1x condition last out improving his pace figure signficantly.
He is stretching out an 1/8 of a mile off his mile victory last out and loses the services
of Borel.

KINGS SILVER SON was thrown to the wolves last out vs G-II company off a maiden win seven weeks earlier by Asmussen off some competitive morning workouts with Z FOTUNE. He has wroked out twice since then at KEE for this spot and loses Bridgmohan.

GAYEGO is nother horse that shows no form on dirt whatsoever. He comes out of two very solid races at SA and has a solid 6f work in preparation for this but also must pick up 7 lbs.

ISABULL showed some pace improvement last out but appears to be distance limited.

MY PAL CHARLIE improved last out when trying stakes company, sheds 4 lbs, and shows a crisp 5f drill over the CD strip. He retains Leparoux and the pace scenario will be critical to his success.

BLACKBERRY ROAD is a consistent sort that hasn't really broken out as a 3yo. He does lure Borel back but will need to improve to make an impact.

LIBERTY BULL won at 1 1/8 mi. last out while taking some betting action. He did run well at OP previously in the Southwest stakes and is reunited with Razo.

GOLDEN YANK was left with alot to do in the lane last out and has a solid 5f drill for his secind race after a layoff but has yet to compete run a good one vs. the upper tier 3yo's.

ABLAZE WITH SPIRIT is another Assmussen trainee that couldn't beat LIBERTY BULL last out and appears to need significant improvement to compete here.

Z FORTUNE was a big disappointment at 3-5 last out and shows only mediocre workouts since
then.

INDIAN SUN shows all his races on artificial surfaces or turf and his better efforts were long ago. The post doesn't help matters but Migliore does make the trip from California to ride.

JAZZ IN THE PARK has been a new horse since the removal of blinkers showing steadfy improvement.
He shows one 5f work since his last race in the slop at CD and Mena retains the mount. His come
from behind style may help to compensate for his poor post postition.

[john del riccio]

CLASS:
------

SHEKINAH and JAZZ IN THE PARK are the eonly runners attempting to tackle tough
competition today and since they both are on the improve, they have every right
to make continued improvement here.



PACE:
-----


The pace scenario does not look to be hot with this group. On a fast dirt surface,
thye following horses look to me the pace presence.


SHEKINAH 74 pace
ISABULL 73 pace
Z FORTUNE 73 pace
MY PAL CHARLIE 72 pace
LIBERTY BULL 72 pace

VICTORY PETE and GAYEGO show 73 & 74 pace figs respectively but they were earned over SA's cushioned surface. SHEKINAH draws inside and hasearned the best pace figure but he did so vs. softer competition. The others are very closesly matched so it does not appear as though any
of these runners has a distict pace edge.

VARIANT:
--------

It is not prudent to use ratings for horses that aremore than a 1/16 mi longer than todays
distance. This is the case with SHEKINAH, the most likely pace setter. He earned a 74
variant rating last out but that was going a flat mile; todays distance is 1 1/8 mi..
JAZZ IN THE PARK falls into the same category having also earned a 74 variant rating slast out
going a flat mile. However, he at least shows a solid race at 1 1/16 the race before.


The remaining horses that show quality races around
two turns over a dirt surface at 1 1/16 mi or better are ZFORTUNE (76 variant),
BLACKBERRY ROAD (76 variant), KINGS SILVER SON (75 variant), and MY PAL CHARLIE (75 variant).
VICTORY PETE has a 74 variant rating at 1 1/8 mi. but that was earned over SA's
cushioned surface. Lastly, GAYEGO earned a 78 variant rating last out (the best in the
field by two lengths) but he did so over SA's cushioned surface. VICTORY PETE and GAYEGO
are running on dirt today and neither has any credientials on a dirt surface.

BLACKBERRY ROAD earned his 76 variant rating as a 2yo and has failed to repeat that effort
on three separate occasions as a 3yo. If Z FORTUNE ever draws a decent post position when
racing in the right spot, he very well may win by daylight. His last two races were
from poor post positions but hi last race was extremely flat. He has has ordinary works
since and faces horses that improved last out and bested him. MY PAL CHARLIE stepped up in
class, got away with soft fractions and was the runner up to PYRO; certainly no disgrace.
He shows a 5f sharp work for this and looks likely to improve once again. He will have to
because the pace will likely be slightly faster than last out but not signficiantly so.
KINGS SILVER SON was a brave entry my Assmussen last out and it was noted in that weeks
ROTW that he liley did so after seeing how KINGS SILVER SON trained in company with Z FORTUNE.
He is the horse to beat here.


KINGS SILVER SON 3-1
MY PAL CHARLIE 6-1
JAZZ IN THE PARK 10-1

Sleeper: GAYEGO





Good Luck,
John