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Topcat
04-09-2008, 02:39 PM
Does anyone have a reliable stat on what % of horses are a late
scratch? That is scratched the day of the race.
misscashalot
04-09-2008, 03:14 PM
Horses scratched prior to 1st race running are early scratches.

Scratched after 1st race are late scratches

I do not have numbers but I observe racing in NY every day

My estimate late scratches average btwn 2 and 3 a day. Lets say 3.

There are about 70 runners per day

3/70 = 4% This is a rough estimation

on days where its turf off the figure rises greatly
Tom
04-09-2008, 03:46 PM
I thought early were the day before and late were the day of the race?
misscashalot
04-09-2008, 03:58 PM
I thought early were the day before and late were the day of the race?

if thats the criterian..then all you have to do is open the charts you can get free from Equibase, any track, all tracks and see how many for each race were scratched.
karlskorner
04-09-2008, 05:22 PM
Better yet, the SCRATCH WATCH offered at the end of the Instant Programs by BRIS, giving the reasons for previous scratches, especially helpfull if horse is scratched again today. Goes on my horse to watch list.
misscashalot
04-09-2008, 05:39 PM
Better yet, the SCRATCH WATCH offered at the end of the Instant Programs by BRIS, giving the reasons for previous scratches, especially helpfull if horse is scratched again today. Goes on my horse to watch list.

Why do you pay particular attention and enter them on your horse to watch list if they are scratched again? or is this list for horses to be suspicious of when next they run?
karlskorner
04-09-2008, 06:24 PM
I am more suspicious of the Trainer looking for a "soft spot".
misscashalot
04-09-2008, 06:33 PM
I am more suspicious of the Trainer looking for a "soft spot".


:ThmbUp: thanks...good point you have.
Topcat
04-10-2008, 12:11 AM
if thats the criterian..then all you have to do is open the charts you can get free from Equibase, any track, all tracks and see how many for each race were scratched.

I believe Tom is right scratches the day of the race are late scratches, I may be wrong but what you are refering to is sometimes called a gate scratch.

As far as just checking Equibase, that merely gives a snapshot of that day and that is not a reliable indicator but thank you for your response.