Workouts as a capping tool.

[misscashalot]

I depend alot on workouts in sizing up a horses condition coming into a race. 80% of all races are won by horses coming into a race. Anyone use workouts as a tool in capping?

[Tom]

Yes, more and more than ever.
HTR has a WO rating that is very useful, and I have a set of standards for FTS or layoff horses, plus, lack of works can be a negative factor.

[BIG49010]

Don't all horses come into a race? Who are the other 20%?

[misscashalot]

Don't all horses come into a race? Who are the other 20%?

Yes...good point...thanx...80% come into a race off a work

the other 20% off a race

[njcurveball]

Yes...good point...thanx...80% come into a race off a work

the other 20% off a race

Perhaps California and maybe even NY. Across the board the number racing after a work, rather than a race is closer to 20% for non maidens.

[Investorater]

#2-great post-Tom....I would refer newer members to study-Chapter 20-Working With Workouts-"Detailed explanations and dozens of examples of how to interpret workouts-when to trust the workout line and when to regard it suspiciously-how to spot pending improvement,live first-time starters or absentees."....Betting Thoroughbreds....Steven Davidowitz....:cool:

[Semipro]

I depend alot on workouts in sizing up a horses condition coming into a race. 80% of all races are won by horses coming into a race. Anyone use workouts as a tool in capping?Absolutly got some good hits at Oaklawn based on some workout Patterns kinda of like reading the eyes of a snake to know when it's going to strike.

[ManeMediaMogul]

For all you Keeneland players:

Clocker Tom "Red" Bridges' "Clocker's Comments" on the www.keeneland.com website are "a powerful source for winners."

Seems like every meet Tom has a good note on a boxcar winner's breeze.

[misscashalot]

Perhaps California and maybe even NY. Across the board the number racing after a work, rather than a race is closer to 20% for non maidens.

My numbers are from the NYRA circuit exclusively for the last 3,900 races.

[Niko]

Yes, more and more than ever.
HTR has a WO rating that is very useful, and I have a set of standards for FTS or layoff horses, plus, lack of works can be a negative factor.


Is the WO rating more reliable or does the rating have a bigger impact on West Coast vs. East Coast or by size of track. Seems like East Coast and smaller tracks were always less reliable and/or worked less.

[mrroyboy]

I would like to here more about your w/o standards for layoff/fts. Would you be willing to share them with us? Thanks

[juanepstein]

chris mccarron first timer angle for 6 or 6 1/2 furlong sprints. heard from his mouth. he likes to see horses working up to the days distance and ending with a 3 furlong bullet. two works at each distance.

so if you are looking at a form this how you would see it from left to right. left work being most recent.

3 fur "bullet", 6 fur, 6 fur, 5 fur, 5 fur, 4 fur, 4 fur, 3 fur, 3 fur

[46zilzal]

Two things happen at the same time does not mean one is related to the other.

[Murph]

I would like to here more about your w/o standards for layoff/fts. Would you be willing to share them with us? ThanksYes Tom, please lay those angles out for us here. I've always had trouble fitting any W/O patterns to the lower level (all claimers really) races. FTS would help mrroyboy, I'm sure but I am more interested in your layoff and "lack of works" points. I'd like to know what is in the HTR w/o number too, but I won't ask about that now.
Murph

[classhandicapper]

I think it helps to know how a trainer handles horses in general.

I looks for changes in workouts or bits of info not in the rest of the PPs.

If a horse generally races once every 4-5 weeks and works out once a week in between and then suddenly is out for 9 weeks and shows a 4 week gap in work outs, that is telling you something.

If a lightly raced horse typically works out in 100h - 101h when asked and suddenly puts in a 58.2hg and 111H since his last start that's telling you something.

If two first time starters work in company and the one that lost in their matchup wins first time out and earns a good speed figure, that's telling you something.

Etc....

[Stevie Belmont]

Absolutley use workouts for a tool. Some trainers have particular patterns of how they work thier horse. If I see the things I like, I know the horse is ready and vice versa. Gaps, no works, slow works all indicate the readiness of a horse. Different trainers, different work patterns.

Remember though works are tricky and not all activity is even published. Sometimes they hide works or do it when nobody is around. Somethings we just don't know unless one is privy or there to see it. I have heard some stories of what goes on from horseman.

Workout patterns of horses are important though.

Ill give one example. Ben Perkins Jr...when I see one of his horses rip a strong 5 furlong work a week before the race...Its a big positive. When I don't see it from him, the horse is probably not ready for his or her best effort that day.

[trigger]

Yes...good point...thanx...80% come into a race off a work

the other 20% off a race

Do you have stats on the percentage of runners that are coming off a work in an average race to compare to the 80%?

[misscashalot]

Do you have stats on the percentage of runners that are coming off a work in an average race to compare to the 80%?

I dint understand your question. Please be specific.

[cmoore]

Many horses can run a 3F bullet work. A 5F bullet is much more impressive. Horses that work farther then they are running is another good angle to look for.

Working at one track and racing at another is something cheap claimers don't do well. Horses get accustomed to one track. A different surface and atmosphere is no problem for the classier type. But for the claimers, a horse that impressed at one track often comes up flat at another.

Leaving your race in a workout. When I see a fast 4 or 5 bullet work 3 days before the race. That might of taken too much out of the horse.

A first time starter who has several works 6-9 days apart is a good workout tab. When you see gaps of 20 days. That could be a minor ailment.

[trigger]

I dint understand your question. Please be specific.

Not sure what I meant.

[misscashalot]

Not sure what I meant.

:D Dats funny...I get that way sometimes too. :lol:

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

misscashalot-In your original post(#1),and followup clarification(#4),you stated that 80% of winners in the last 3900 races on the NYRA cicuit,came in the race off of a workout.
trigger-You asked in your post(#17),"Do you have stats on the percentage of runners that are coming off a work in an average race to compare to the 80%?"

My understanding?
You were talking about winners only.
He was looking for stats on the entire field(e.g.Did 80% winners come from 50% of the field?90%?)

[misscashalot]

misscashalot-In your original post(#1),and followup clarification(#4),you stated that 80% of winners in the last 3900 races on the NYRA cicuit,came in the race off of a workout.
trigger-You asked in your post(#17),"Do you have stats on the percentage of runners that are coming off a work in an average race to compare to the 80%?"

My understanding?
You were talking about winners only.
He was looking for stats on the entire field(e.g.Did 80% winners come from 50% of the field?90%?)


Data from last 3834 races on NYRA circuit:

Total of 29,700 runners

Total runners who entered race coming off
3f work 3830 13% - 437 wins 11%

4f 11971 40% - 1624 wins 42%

5f 6073 20% - 870 wins 23%

Race 7861 26% - 828 wins 22%

There were 74 winners who's last activity prior to winning were either, 6, 7, or 8 furlongs

[Stevie Belmont]

A lot of the older cheap claimers dont always work between races.

[Murph]

My understanding?
You were talking about winners only.
He was looking for stats on the entire field(e.g.Did 80% winners come from 50% of the field?90%?)Thanks to everyone for the great ideas. Workout angles are about as unique as each handicapper in this thread.

[Murph]

A lot of the older cheap claimers dont always work between races.Do you know of any of these types that train and possibly workout away from reported venues? IN bred runners with no works between local meetings comes to my mind right away for this group of horses. Stevie, you follow the Chicago loop closely, if I'm not mistaken?

Murph

[juanepstein]

chris mccarron first timer angle for 6 or 6 1/2 furlong sprints. heard from his mouth. he likes to see horses working up to the days distance and ending with a 3 furlong bullet. two works at each distance.

so if you are looking at a form this how you would see it from left to right. left work being most recent.

3 fur "bullet", 6 fur, 6 fur, 5 fur, 5 fur, 4 fur, 4 fur, 3 fur, 3 fur


4th race keenland 4/10

#11 ALONG CAME THE CAT -6/1- shows almost the same pattern and doesnt end in a bullet but could be a hidden workout. will be one ill have to see.

4th race santa anita 4/10

#9 MISS LYDIA- 15/1- shows the 3 to 4 to 5 to 6 pattern but ends in two 4 furlong works and the last is a 4 furlong bullet. gets mig for the call so definitly will check this one out.

[Stevie Belmont]

I focus mainly on New York/New Jersey racing. And I also peak at other


Do you know of any of these types that train and possibly workout away from reported venues? IN bred runners with no works between local meetings comes to my mind right away for this group of horses. Stevie, you follow the Chicago loop closely, if I'm not mistaken?

Murph

[offtrack]

I saw this happen one sunny morning at Saratoga, while I sat behind the DRF clockers, during the morning workouts (second set):

Unraced filly runs four furlongs in sub-48 seconds, might have qualified for a bullet.
Trainer requests that the workout not be reported, under the unraced rule.
The clockers comply, the work was not reported in the form.

Anyone know if this is common practice for other racetracks?

[Kelso]

3 fur "bullet", 6 fur, 6 fur, 5 fur, 5 fur, 4 fur, 4 fur, 3 fur, 3 fur


Juan,
Any idea if the 3F distance to begin the string is very important ... as opposed to it beginning at 4F? Also, did McCarron express a preference for the schedule of works ... such as at least weekly or at least every 10 days or the last 3F within X days of the race, etc?

Thank you.

[juanepstein]

Juan,
Any idea if the 3F distance to begin the string is very important ... as opposed to it beginning at 4F? Also, did McCarron express a preference for the schedule of works ... such as at least weekly or at least every 10 days or the last 3F within X days of the race, etc?

Thank you.

definitely he said started with 3 furlong. you can always tweak it and see if can work with 4 furlong. i checked out the two horses i posted yesterday that were tweaked from the pattern that he said but really didnt work to well. one was really too light and the other was on turf. cant remember if he said it was just dirt.

he did say weekly at the least but the 3 furlong bullet x days from racing i do not recall sorry. i would guess it would be before 10 or14 days.

if you are checking it out and do see something please let me know.

thanks

[asH]

Workout patterns of horses are important though.

Ill give one example. Ben Perkins Jr...when I see one of his horses rip a strong 5 furlong work a week before the race...Its a big positive. When I don't see it from him, the horse is probably not ready for his or her best effort that day.

Ben Perkins+ New Farm + Forest Wildcat = 63% (last year Oct when I put this together) first time out, and a high percentage second time off of a first time loss .
normal first time out Perkins 'winners all' about 13% (somewhere around there).

Small barn (relative)trainers train differently when they have a runner. The big name trainers 20%+ get the good ones every year. when races include both big and small (relative) trainers sometimes it pays to investigate...Perkins had a Wildcat runner at Kee 2 days ago, Wild Jersey Boy/ Dominguez ; flashed speed.. but Ward dominates these 4.5f at Kee; Dicey Riley (nice)...came all the way down to Kee with his posse to run this horse, a win would have been nice to secure Wildcat breeding perhaps...interesting anyway

[Stevie Belmont]

There is a good chance he will run him at Monmouth Park in the summer.

Yea Ben is pretty good with the younger ones.

[njcurveball]

Ben Perkins+ New Farm + Forest Wildcat = 63% (last year Oct when I put this together) first time out, and a high percentage second time off of a first time loss .
normal first time out Perkins 'winners all' about 13% (somewhere around there).



Last 15 months

Ben Perkins+ New Farm = 6 FTS, 0 wins, 2 2nds, 0 3rds
Jeff Runco + New Farm = 3 FTS, 0 wins, 0 2nds, 2 3rds

When I see stats like that, I dont go as far as the sire, since this Owner now seems to do things differently from past years.

Might have just been a sour year, but I will let them win one before jumping back in.

[Kelso]

if you are checking it out and do see something please let me know.


Thank you for rounding out the angle, Juan. I'll let you know if I spot this FST pattern.

[asH]

Guys, dug this up., original Sun, Nov 18, 2007, cant figure where I got the 63%, will see if I can dig back, ignore the 63% for now. thanks

When not to rely on trainers percentages .

While perusing the early pk 4 at Aqu, I came upon the 2nd race entry Wild Garden trained by Ben Perkins. I first noticed the excellent workouts of the horse then my eyes dropped down to Perkins first time win percentage (3%). This was truly a contradiction in my eyes so I did a little investigation...... Ive found that low percentage First Time Trainers will show big differences in training patterns when they have a live runner...Perkins entry Wild Garden's workouts were and eye opener to me, and are not the workout patterns of 3% trainers.....this may be moot 'cause the 8 horse Parchisi looks like a MONSTER, but no (logical) doubt Wild Garden is live. Wild Garden second first time out, First second & third time out....
exacta Parchisi,Wild Garden $29

Horses trained by Perkins , Wild in its name (sire: Forest Wildcat ), and owned by New Farm.

Wild Cat Widow - 7-1-0
Wild Wildcat - 8-4 84K won first 3 in a row
Wild Gams - 17-7-3-1 $678K won 3 G3, 2nd G2, 2nd first time out won second time out
Wild Chick - 21-4-4-2 $171K won first time out , 3rd in the Schyrvl-G2 (Sar) 2nd time out
Wild Certificate - 8-2-1 won second time out CT MSW 25K, 2nd third time out
Wild Catseye - 8-3-1-1 $113K NJbred won first time out, won NJFuturity65K
Prim Wildcat - 5th first time out speed and fade 22,45,57.6
Marvelous Cat - 18-3 won second time out md32k
Nasty Wildcat - 20-2-1 3rd first time out
Diamond Wildcat 19-5-3-3 2nd first out, won next 2, then 9th in Whirlaway
Just Wild 8-1-1 won 2nd time out

Other horses trained by Perkins and Owned by New Farm

Township Cat - 2-1-1 Sire Delaware Township, Dam Kiss Me Cat (Forest Wildcat) 2nd first time out, first 2nd time out

Victory Pool - 25-6-7-6 $306K Sire: Victory Gallop 3rd first time out

Town Council - 7-2-2 $66K sire Delaware Township 3rd first time out, 1st next out , 3rd in Cowdin77K

Sejour won first time out NJbred

Horse owned by New Farm, trained by Perkins, ridden by Luzzi first out
Carryanun - 7-3-1-2 $91.9K Nov. 6 th Aqu 05' Won first time out four bullet works Mth in preparation