Morning Line Odds - Frankly I am Puzzled

[BeatTheChalk]

The Wood Memorial ... War Pass 6/5 then Tale of 9/2 and then the
rest of the field. Went from 6-1 on up. My question is this :

Why would the odds on Tale be 9/2 ? Not 4/1 ? I don't get it. Anyone
care to comment .. and I will NOT blame you .. if you don't. :bang:

[46zilzal]

Most total betting is based upon 119-120% of the odds.

Go to the chart, find the probabilities of each horse's final odds, i.e. 2/1 reciprocal becomes 1/2 then add one to the denominator to get 1/3 which tells you 2/1 is 0.3333 or 33% probability. Do that for all and your sum will be in the 119% range/

[Overlay]

The chart off the BRISnet site:

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant_pdf.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=AQU&date=2008-04-05&race=9&src=tdn

As 46zilzal indicated, the cumulative toteboard percentages for the field added up to around 118.78. (I don't know what the morning line added up to.)

[stu]

My question is this :

Why would the odds on Tale be 9/2 ? Not 4/1 ? I don't get it. Anyone
care to comment .. and I will NOT blame you .. if you don't. :bang:

18.2 points versus 20 points

If the morning line maker went with 4/1 instead of 9/2, then (s)he would have to move a 12/1 to 15/1 or 20/1 to 30/1. It is all about balancing points.

After a few weeks of making a very bad morning line for the first time in the summer of '06, I was coached on the mechanics.

The guideline that I was given has the points totalling to 100 + track take out rate + field size. Not all ML makers follow this guideline. Some pick a number and use it for all of their races.

I would have stopped the line at 124 points = 100 + 15 + 9 for the Wood.

The line totalled to about 124 points and change.

It is all a very subjective exercise to guess how the crowd is going to bet. Getting the order right is difficult. Nailing the actual odds for each horse is very hard. Especially since linemakers rarely put anyone under Evens or above 30/1

In this case seperating 9/2 from 4/1 for the same horse two days in advance would be wickedly good if one could do it.

[BeatTheChalk]

Thanks for the very informative posting. I notice that you " made a morning
line " back in 2006. Just curious .. was that for your own use or posted at
the race track ?

I have only known one line maker .. way back in the day at
Fairmount Park. He had some sort of system .. that we all followed.
It had to do with giving the horse with the " High Weight " and Low
odds .. a score of 20 / Sadly I cant Remember what we did next :bang:

I have been trying to make sense of the Line for a long time. Every now
and then I can throw out the Favorite. Still trying. Thanks again for
your posting.

[misscashalot]

Especially since linemakers rarely put anyone under Evens or above 30/1

On several occasions during the winter when competition is sparce and a stickout runs the NYRA linemaker made a horse less than evens and it drives me nutz, It acts as a self-fulfilling prophesy. PS they usually win and pay $2.40

[stu]

Thanks for the very informative posting. I notice that you " made a morning
line " back in 2006. Just curious .. was that for your own use or posted at
the race track ?


My morning line maker resume:

Last six weeks of RUI '06
Everyday of ZIA '06 less two days that I was at my sister's wedding

Starting with the '06-'07 season at SUN, I have done the line for every Friday card plus random days to help the racing secretary when he was working on the next condition book or had house guests. He does the lion share but I do between a quarter and a third of all of the races.

When I am the racing secretary at ALB my assistant, Gordon Graham, does the line. GG also does the line at Sunray Park.

This year at ARP when I am the racing secretary I will do the line.

[BeatTheChalk]

My morning line maker resume:

Last six weeks of RUI '06
Everyday of ZIA '06 less two days that I was at my sister's wedding

Starting with the '06-'07 season at SUN, I have done the line for every Friday card plus random days to help the racing secretary when he was working on the next condition book or had house guests. He does the lion share but I do between a quarter and a third of all of the races.

When I am the racing secretary at ALB my assistant, Gordon Graham, does the line. GG also does the line at Sunray Park.

This year at ARP when I am the racing secretary I will do the line.

All I can say is whoa ! Now .. as for missing the Morning Line chores for
your sister's wedding .. I ask you .. what is more important .. a correct
M/L or a wedding :lol: :jump: Many thanks for the info. :ThmbUp: