It's the 2007 Kentucky Derby - Big Brown's Odds Are?

[menifee]

If Big Brown was in last year's crop, what do you think his odds would have been entering the Derby if he had the same running lines last year going into the Derby?

My guess is that Street Sense is still the favorite. Curlin is second choice. I think Big Brown is 3rd choice at 8 or 9-1. Hard Spun and others are after him.

This year Big Brown will be 7/2 or 3-1 and he will only have had 3 prior starts to the Derby and this field looks full of pace and he has shown no ability to rate going two turns. This looks like a very weak Derby. :(

However, it might be rewarding financially if you can come up with some bomb closers. Iamawildandcrazyguy might run down this field.

[toetoe]

3/1 ??? :eek: In a field of twenty ? 9/2 is the rock bottom this year. I am so sure, I must insert an emoticon. >>>>>> :confused:

[Onion Monster]

I think you're spot on with those hypothetical odds. If able, you can bet Big Brown at 2.75-1 on the ehorse exchange right now.

On another note, I'm hearing a lot of "hot pace" talk and the full field hasn't even been assembled yet. That leaves plenty of time for some of the pinheads to think about rating their potential mounts. With all this talk about speed duels we could see a repeat of the merry-go-round War Emblem derby. So much, however, depends on the track and the maintenance crew come that first saturday in May. But I'll guess the value will be with the early speed as everybody's mother and brother will be looking for a plodder.

[jeebus1083]

As of today, Z HUMOR is my Derby selection. The Mott trainee has gone up, up and up with steady progression, and I'm thinking that Mott will have this one ready to run a big race on the 3rd of May. We still have the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby races this weekend, so anything can change.

[Bobzilla]

Z HUMOR has very solid 2 year old foundation. Did the dirty work in the Champagne. A 71 day vacation between cycle 1 and 2. Handlers might be bringing him along at a pace to ease into cycle 2. Got caught behind a loose on the lead overlay this past weekend at Hawthorne. Wouldn't say he's my Derby Horse but I, like you, don't sense we've seen the bottom of him as of yet. Distorted Humor on top of an A.P. Indy mare. Also has Conquistador Cielo on the bottom.