BridgeJumper Special

[Bill Olmsted]

BM
Race 7
#2 Nosey Britches

NB just lost to favored AWESOME 'NCOOL on March 9th while finishing 10 L ahead of the 3rd place finisher. Sherman hits 38% to win with these types. Since Nosey Britches is going to be 1/9 in the win pool, might as well shoot the moon to show.

B :)

[Bill Olmsted]

First-time-starter LINDSEY'S WISH in the 11th at OP is getting serious action with 5 minutes to post. It now stands at 6/5.

Favored first time starters are often overlays to place and show.

B :)

[Bill Olmsted]

Nice prices across the board on LINDSEY'S WISH.


5.20 3.00 2.80

B :)

[ryesteve]

Favored first time starters are often overlays to place and show.
Did you see that 3/5 firster in the 4th at Bay Meadows? The chart comments are a riot (as long as you didn't have serious money on her): "High Prices hesitated and broke slow and was beginning to close the gap when she became as green as the grass in Ireland, broke stride and almost propped, then continued to break stride to the turn, and was always far back. The stewards conducted an inquiry into the actions of High Prices but determined that she caused her own problems"

[Bill Olmsted]

Did you see that 3/5 firster in the 4th at Bay Meadows? The chart comments are a riot (as long as you didn't have serious money on her): "High Prices hesitated and broke slow and was beginning to close the gap when she became as green as the grass in Ireland, broke stride and almost propped, then continued to break stride to the turn, and was always far back. The stewards conducted an inquiry into the actions of High Prices but determined that she caused her own problems"

I've never seen a comment like that. At first I thought you were joking, but there it was in black and white, word for word just as you have quoted. :lol:

I sorry I missed it.

[098poi]

Alert Mnr r5 40k to show on the 3.

[Bill Olmsted]

Alert Mnr r5 40k to show on the 3.

I don't know...I get a funny feeling. I'm sitting it out.

[098poi]

Wise move, (he won) I made show bets on the others cause you never know!

[Bill Olmsted]

3.00 2.20 2.20.

[Bill Olmsted]

What's the deal with the show payoff? Does MNR pay a minimum of 2.20 instead of the traditional 2.10 on negative pools?

[098poi]

You got me, I was hoping he was off the board!

[ryesteve]

What's the deal with the show payoff? Does MNR pay a minimum of 2.20 instead of the traditional 2.10 on negative pools?
I recall someone pointing that out in the aftermath of the Nicole's Dream fiasco, so yeah, I guess that's still the case...

[Bill Olmsted]

A minimum of 10% return is huge for a negative pool. It's no wonder that 50k got bet into this race. Essentially, then, MNR is guaranteeing a 100% premium over the tradional 5% return on negative pools. That is one bet I'm more than willing to take.

However you must be correct 91 times out of 100 to make it work with a 10% return, which beats the heck out of having to be right 96 times out of 100 for a 5% return.

A 91%+ hit rate for show is certainly within reason for any handicapper who is selective. Count me it at MNR for 10% to show.

[ryesteve]

A 91%+ hit rate for show is certainly within reason for any handicapper who is selective.For some reason, the words "The Bill Olmsted Bridgejumper Challenge!" just popped into my head... :D

[Bill Olmsted]

Sounds gooooood!B :jump:

[098poi]

A minimum of 10% return is huge for a negative pool. It's no wonder that 50k got bet into this race. Essentially, then, MNR is guaranteeing a 100% premium over the tradional 5% return on negative pools. That is one bet I'm more than willing to take.

However you must be correct 91 times out of 100 to make it work with a 10% return, which beats the heck out of having to be right 96 times out of 100 for a 5% return.

A 91%+ hit rate for show is certainly within reason for any handicapper who is selective. Count me it at MNR for 10% to show.

Still in this case I think you made a good call staying out (if you were betting he'd be in the money). I think this type low level MdClm would be too risky to bet a lot to get a little.

[Bill Olmsted]

Still in this case I think you made a good call staying out (if you were betting he'd be in the money). I think this type low level MdClm would be too risky to bet a lot to get a little.

I was on the fence here. I wavered back and forth and figured that there is always another opportunity coming up. Better to err on the side of safety. But I must say, that 10% does loosen my standards up a bit.

[098poi]

Better to err on the side of safety.

I think I'll have that tatooed to my inner eyelid. I bet I'd save a lot of money!!!!!!!!
Off to work.

[Bill Olmsted]

This $2.20 show payoff minimum seems to apply to CT horses as well as MNR. However, I noticed from looking at recent results at CT that when there is a short priced horse (less than 1-1) in a field of 6 horses or less, they don't allow (or suspend) show betting. Strange.

[ryesteve]

Sounds gooooood!B :jump:
This is too good to pass up... I'm posting the thread now...

[BombsAway Bob]

What's the deal with the show payoff? Does MNR pay a minimum of 2.20 instead of the traditional 2.10 on negative pools?
Suffolk Downs is another track with a $2.20 Show minimum.:jump:

[Murph]

This is too good to pass up... I'm posting the thread now...Sounds like fun to me - I'm in. Murph

[rrpic6]

What's the deal with the show payoff? Does MNR pay a minimum of 2.20 instead of the traditional 2.10 on negative pools?

I believe its a State Law, as Charles Town does the same thing. West Virginia also denies bettors the right to wager in increments less than a dollar. No 50 cent pick 4's or 10 cent supers there. I think Louisiana is another state that requires a $2.20 payout.

RR