What can "Brown" do for you ?

[bellsbendboy]

In the spring, finding vulnerability, in stakes class sophomores is an admirable enterprise and often can lead to solid rewards. Over the next four weeks handcappers will be inundated with endless, nebulous data and conflicting hyperbole. Those who survive might have the Kentucky Derby winner and if it's BIG BROWN, we won't be among them.

It did not take long for "Brown" to make a splash when he won his debut by a pole at Saratoga for a trainer that seldoms loads the guns out of the box. The ink on the signed, two million dollar contract was not dry when the an ankle voided the transaction. Fast forward to his tour de force in the Florida Derby and now Big Brown is a big favorite to get the roses!

On pedigree, BB has no chance to get the ten panel Derby trip but his genetic shortcomings go much deeper. "Brown has had more sixty day vacations than he has had races. His dad, Boundary sires strictly sprinters and few of those are sound. "Brown's mom, the Nureyev mare Mien, broke down in her second start, and BB himself has some very interesting footware to go along with the aformentioned ankle. No nail slippers, super glue and copious quantities of the automotive dent repair commonly called "bondo", do not lead to comparisons with Cinderella, noting all four one seeds have advanced.

From a historical perspective, in the last twelve years or so we have seen Big Brown types blow up in Louisville. Top shelf spring sophomores usually bounce from BIG performances and the Florida Derby was certainly a hit record for "Brown. Sinister Minister, Bellamy Rd., Sweetnorthernsaint, Easy Goer, Afleet Alex, Bandini and many more could not overcome the hangover that lingers after a top derby prep performance. "Brown certainly will not either.

Over the last dozen years or so, using adjusted Beyers, a 3yo who has just ran a new top has ran poorly in Louisville to the tune of some seventy percent. None have run new tops and only one in five has paired up.

Big Brown's boss trainer Dutrow, who most feel is a better chemist than podiatrist, has his work cut out for him. Churchill is a very unforgiving track for bad footed horses. Clay based, spring rains and often stifling humidity does not bode well for "BB and meandering thru the Florida derby stretch never a good sign.

Since we are on a vulnerability rant; both War Pass and Denis of Cork aren't exactly the brothers reliable. The former had poultice up to his eyeballs this morning and his trainer ran five in the Derby a few years back and came back with exactly ten shoes. The latter has been fired by both Robby and Calvin the two best jocks in the midwest at judging talent! Tread lightly, BBB.

[JustRalph]

ok, so now I gotta start cheering for him............... :lol:

[asH]

K6O0QM-6P1A

Dam_...and I started to believe

BBB, addition by subtraction??

[Robert Fischer]

On pedigree, BB has no chance to get the ten panel Derby trip
Strongly disagree, Brown's pedigree indicates more stamina than most of the big names. He will have no problem due to pedigree stamina.

Performance, the complement to pedigree strongly agrees. Over the gulfstream park course Brown beat a group of grade 3 horses by about 10-12 lengths of performance going 9 furlongs. Extremely important to note the energy used early in that 9 furlong contest. The only possible thread of a doubt about Brown getting 10 furlongs is in performance, if you think that he will be drawn into an early speed pissing contest and prematurely use his stamina reserves.


As far as inherited soundness in pedigree, I do concur. Soundness is a separate and extremely important issue in which you make excellent points. Again, with performance being the complement to pedigree, his soundness has been a problem. His hooves have had problems. His health has a greater probability to play a role than many of the other contenders. The impression, true or false, is that brown is a bit fragile, and that his hooves will need high maintenance.


Agree with War Pass and Denis of Cork. They will need to win today before we have to worry about opposing them.

[parlay]

:bang: :bang:
"On pedigree, BB has no chance to get the ten panel Derby trip but his genetic shortcomings go much deeper. "Brown has had more sixty day vacations than he has had races. His dad, Boundary sires strictly sprinters and few of those are sound."

What a bunch of hogwash!!
Strictly sprinters, show me were exactly you get this info.
This is totaly laughable.
Boundary offspring are very precocious and can win
first out as 2 year olds sprinting. They stretch out
beautifully.
With a Nuryev mare underneath BB may very well
love classic distances on all surfaces.

[bellsbendboy]

Perhaps our post should have read that Boundary sires mainly sprinters and milers. Boundary stood at Claiborne and even with those mares his best runners were; Minardi ( Grade I winner, 6furlongs turf, never went on) Pomeroy ( Grade I winner, 7furlongs who was afflicted with ankle and foot problems and had THREE seven month layoffs during his first seventeen races, and Conserve who won at a mile over the grass.

It seems that Boundary has had two horses that won at a mile and an eighth; Big Brown and a horse that won on the lawn at Keeneland Sunday. The offspring of Boundary are VERY precocious with some 18% 2yo winners, and according to a Keeneland sale page 21% do not make the races with over 400 named foals spanning a ten year stud career.

For Boundary's in general, and Big Brown in particular there is little hope that he/they will get ten panels in early May as sophomores. With "Browns physical issues he is no better than fifty-fifty to make the Derby gate. BBB

[Rackon]

Don't sell the dam's influence short.

Personally, as a breeder, I believe a lot of the stamina influence comes from the dam's side. If BB has an X factor large heart, that for sure was inherited from his dam. BB's tail female line does show route horses and stamina influences, a typical modern TB pedigree, albeit there's not s much blacktype up close as there was on a similar speedy pedigree like Smarty Jones'. If BB gets beat it won't be on pedigree. Depending on the pace scenario, I think BB can get the KD distance How his hooves hold up on the CD surface is another question altogether.

[Stevie Belmont]

Horse galloped out like a champion. He will get the distance with no probelm whatsoever..

[asH]

consider

connections enter BB in turf (pedigree) distance first time out, horse blows away comp, competitive relative pace to older.

connections then enter horse in turf again, race called off turf, horse demolishes field again, pace relative tops of the day again

connections then enter horse in FD

anyone else do that. Logically, he has to be strongly considered

[Semipro]

consider

connections enter BB in turf (pedigree) distance first time out, horse blows away comp, competitive relative pace to older.

connections then enter horse in turf again, race called off turf, horse demolishes field again, pace relative tops of the day again

connections then enter horse in FD

anyone else do that. Logically, he has to be strongly consideredI Totally agree he raced only three times all new experiances turf ,dirt,then grade I and was much the best in all three. He may be vulnerable obviously has some kind of physical problems but has exhibiited more talent than rest of the crop.

[Charlie D]

Sires like Deputy Minister, Irish River, Unbridled, Rahy, Seeking the Gold, Kris S, Alydar, Mr Prospector, Cox Ridge have very decent strike rates of producing horses that stay 10f or above.

All have had mares covered by Boudary, not one of these matings produce a 10f horse.


What makes people think it will be any different with a mare out of Nureyev??

[Semipro]

Sires like Deputy Minister, Irish River, Unbridled, Rahy, Seeking the Gold, Kris S, Alydar, Mr Prospector, Cox Ridge have very decent strike rates of producing horses that stay 10f or above.

All have had mares covered by Boudary, not one of these matings produce a 10f horse.


What makes people think it will be any different with a mare out of Nureyev??Roberto and eyeballs.

[Charlie D]

Roberto and eyeballs.


I think you may need a lot more than Roberto's influnce and eyeballs to get this fella home

[asH]

I Totally agree he raced only three times all new experiances turf ,dirt,then grade I and was much the best in all three. He may be vulnerable obviously has some kind of physical problems but has exhibiited more talent than rest of the crop.

Is this the pattern of a current problem, to you??
Turf, Dirt, Dirt
3/29/08 FD
03/25/2008 PMM 5F :59.20 Dirt Fast H,
03/19/2008 PMM 5F 1:00.40 Dirt Fast H
3/5/08 Alowance
03/01/2008 PMM 5F 1:00.50 Dirt Fast H,


02/24/2008 PMM 4F :48.00 Dirt Fast H

"My plan was not to get on the lead, but rather to get close enough to the rail so as not to get caught wide," Desormeaux said. "Riding him was like bounding through a meadow. He just galloped around. When a horse sets fractions like that and still tells me that he's got more, and that the other horses can't get to him, that's something special."

[The Judge]

Check out Roman's http://www.chef-de-race.com

[jjm323]

I wanted to see a work for him within 10 days after the Florida Derby to show me that his behavior in the lane was not a sore horse, but a green horse. Today is Day 10.

[Stevie Belmont]

I like this horse, but I an worried about the feet. It's a concern for sure.

[Semipro]

Is this the pattern of a current problem, to you??
Turf, Dirt, Dirt
3/29/08 FD
03/25/2008 PMM 5F :59.20 Dirt Fast H,
03/19/2008 PMM 5F 1:00.40 Dirt Fast H
3/5/08 Alowance
03/01/2008 PMM 5F 1:00.50 Dirt Fast H,


02/24/2008 PMM 4F :48.00 Dirt Fast H

"My plan was not to get on the lead, but rather to get close enough to the rail so as not to get caught wide," Desormeaux said. "Riding him was like bounding through a meadow. He just galloped around. When a horse sets fractions like that and still tells me that he's got more, and that the other horses can't get to him, that's something special."I used the wrong tense of the verb has should have used had nice works by the way and I'm on the Big Brown wagon until the wheels fall off.

[asH]

I'm sorry, I did understand you, ... I used your quote so others may hear.

Pyro faces his toughest field yet, I havent looked yet but I believe some of these may not roll over in the stretch.. a Keenlend track that plays like turf at distance....

[Semipro]

I'm sorry, I did understand you, ... I used your quote so others may hear.

Pyro faces his toughest field yet, I havent looked yet but I believe some of these may not roll over in the stretch.. a Keenlend track that plays like turf at distance....Cool Coal Man is one I've been wanting to see again and might be a good one. As much as I like Pyro's trainer I still haven't seen the speed
it takes to win the Roses from him.

[parlay]

Perhaps our post should have read that Boundary sires mainly sprinters and milers. Boundary stood at Claiborne and even with those mares his best runners were; Minardi ( Grade I winner, 6furlongs turf, never went on) Pomeroy ( Grade I winner, 7furlongs who was afflicted with ankle and foot problems and had THREE seven month layoffs during his first seventeen races, and Conserve who won at a mile over the grass.

It seems that Boundary has had two horses that won at a mile and an eighth; Big Brown and a horse that won on the lawn at Keeneland Sunday. The offspring of Boundary are VERY precocious with some 18% 2yo winners, and according to a Keeneland sale page 21% do not make the races with over 400 named foals spanning a ten year stud career.

For Boundary's in general, and Big Brown in particular there is little hope that he/they will get ten panels in early May as sophomores. With "Browns physical issues he is no better than fifty-fifty to make the Derby gate. BBB

You pegged it!

[Tampa Russ]

You pegged it!

Spot on! Where do I sign up for the class?

[Stevie Belmont]

Yea baby...Bang. He romped...

[Semipro]

You pegged it!No I pegged it

[philcski]

In the spring, finding vulnerability, in stakes class sophomores is an admirable enterprise and often can lead to solid rewards. Over the next four weeks handcappers will be inundated with endless, nebulous data and conflicting hyperbole. Those who survive might have the Kentucky Derby winner and if it's BIG BROWN, we won't be among them.

It did not take long for "Brown" to make a splash when he won his debut by a pole at Saratoga for a trainer that seldoms loads the guns out of the box. The ink on the signed, two million dollar contract was not dry when the an ankle voided the transaction. Fast forward to his tour de force in the Florida Derby and now Big Brown is a big favorite to get the roses!

On pedigree, BB has no chance to get the ten panel Derby trip but his genetic shortcomings go much deeper. "Brown has had more sixty day vacations than he has had races. His dad, Boundary sires strictly sprinters and few of those are sound. "Brown's mom, the Nureyev mare Mien, broke down in her second start, and BB himself has some very interesting footware to go along with the aformentioned ankle. No nail slippers, super glue and copious quantities of the automotive dent repair commonly called "bondo", do not lead to comparisons with Cinderella, noting all four one seeds have advanced.

From a historical perspective, in the last twelve years or so we have seen Big Brown types blow up in Louisville. Top shelf spring sophomores usually bounce from BIG performances and the Florida Derby was certainly a hit record for "Brown. Sinister Minister, Bellamy Rd., Sweetnorthernsaint, Easy Goer, Afleet Alex, Bandini and many more could not overcome the hangover that lingers after a top derby prep performance. "Brown certainly will not either.

Over the last dozen years or so, using adjusted Beyers, a 3yo who has just ran a new top has ran poorly in Louisville to the tune of some seventy percent. None have run new tops and only one in five has paired up.

Big Brown's boss trainer Dutrow, who most feel is a better chemist than podiatrist, has his work cut out for him. Churchill is a very unforgiving track for bad footed horses. Clay based, spring rains and often stifling humidity does not bode well for "BB and meandering thru the Florida derby stretch never a good sign.

Since we are on a vulnerability rant; both War Pass and Denis of Cork aren't exactly the brothers reliable. The former had poultice up to his eyeballs this morning and his trainer ran five in the Derby a few years back and came back with exactly ten shoes. The latter has been fired by both Robby and Calvin the two best jocks in the midwest at judging talent! Tread lightly, BBB.

Sign me up for the class as well. :ThmbUp: