Unemployment rate finally reaches Bill Clinton level...Doom and Gloomers Rejoice

[PaceAdvantage]

But then they realize, huh?

That's right...the recession doom and gloomers are pointing to this morning's unemployment numbers, which have the unemployment rate at 5.1%.

5.1% The very same 5.1% that under Bill Clinton in 1996, won him praise and another term.

Non-farm payrolls dropped by 80,000, where in a recession, this number is usually around 130,000-150,000.....

Keep those hits coming D&Gs....

[ddog]

But then they realize, huh?

That's right...the recession doom and gloomers are pointing to this morning's unemployment numbers, which have the unemployment rate at 5.1%.

5.1% The very same 5.1% that under Bill Clinton in 1996, won him praise and another term.

Non-farm payrolls dropped by 80,000, where in a recession, this number is usually around 130,000-150,000.....

Keep those hits coming D&Gs....


you asked for it, you will get them.
as usual, the usual show shallowness of method.

check the usual nbr of jobs created back when we really created jobs.
if you only create, in the "good times" half the jobs as your "usual" call is based on, then wouldn't it figure that to lose less than the "usual" would hold true.

Oh, by the way, how can one be losing jobs in "good times"?

strange days there Polly.

[King Ritchie]

Unemployment up.

Gas prices at record highs.

Ecomony nears recession.

Stock market falling.

Who makes the laws? And who is in control of Congress? All this blame is on Peloski, Reed and the liberals running congress. It's time to put the conservatives back in charge. Can you imagine how bad it might really get if the Hillary or Obama or Gore actually becomes the President? .

[PaceAdvantage]

Oh, by the way, how can one be losing jobs in "good times"?

strange days there Polly.Please point to the post where I say we're in GOOD TIMES? I'm playing devil's advocate to those who claim Armageddon is upon us (and there are many out there).

I'm providing a much needed reality check. Take any indicator you'd like...I don't think I've seen ONE that is in the "traditional" recession zone. Not a one.

Now, I'm sure I've missed some, so maybe somebody more observant than I could post a few of the economic indicators that are in the traditional recession zone.

[ljb]

Unemployment up.

Gas prices at record highs.

Ecomony nears recession.

Stock market falling.

Who makes the laws? And who is in control of Congress? All this blame is on Peloski, Reed and the liberals running congress. It's time to put the conservatives back in charge. Can you imagine how bad it might really get if the Hillary or Obama or Gore actually becomes the President? .
After years of Republican Iron handed control you have the audacity to blame this on the Dems ?
I got a bridge in Alaska you can buy from me cheap.

[OTM Al]

Here is one thing that is a big problem because "underemployment" is a tough measure

Still the 5.1% unemployment rate only describes part of the problem for those struggling to find work in the battered labor market. The number of people outside of agriculture who are working part time who want to work full-time is now up 591,000 compared to a year ago.

from CNN report

[Tom]

Gas prices are high thanks to dems - the majority of the blame lies with thier idiodic tree-hugging mentality.

[King Ritchie]

After years of Republican Iron handed control you have the audacity to blame this on the Dems ?
I got a bridge in Alaska you can buy from me cheap.

Let me see if I have this right - Bush takes over in 2000 and you want to blame him for all the problems - Not Clinton for the mess he left Bush. But now that the democrats have taken over it's still the republicans fault. Typical liberal logic.

[Gibbon]

......Bill Clinton Bill left office with oil less than $20.00 a barrel. Today's close: $106.23
Similar pattern on all essential commodities.

Bill left office with govt. expenditures 15% of GDP.
Under current communist occupation of my White House, govt. expenditures totals an astonishing 22% of GDP. Also, staggering growth of all deficits as measured by GAO.

Our borders and ports are as porous as ever. This pres. allowed a foreign army into my country briefly during hurricane Katrina. http://usinfo.state.gov/gi/Archive/2005/Sep/08-223474.html

Frightening growth along most all federal govt. agencies while the CIA and NSA have yet to capture the mastermind behind Sept. 11, 2001.

And what of the US Constitution limiting federal govt. powers and holding state rights as inviolable? Not under clan Bush.






____________________________________
The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people, it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government - lest it come to dominate our lives and interests. ~ Patrick Henry

[Gibbon]

Gas prices are high thanks to dems - the majority of the blame lies with thier idiodic tree-hugging mentality. While this is only partly true, it does not explain all other commodities rising.

It is also true Clinton/Gore opposed all nuclear energy discussions, it does not explain Americas apathy since Oil embargo days when OPEC nations declared war on us 37 years ago!




_______________________________________
Formula for success: Rise early, work hard, strike oil. ~ Jean Paul Getty

[skate]

yeh great idea, cut cut cut to balance the budget and let the next admin. try to fill in the MANY holes.


Daaaa!

[skate]

And and and, least we forget, The Labor force is Rising.

Hello Sherlock!

Wages up
Production remains levil
Economist remain CON (f...n) fused.

That's why they come to The-Sklate for the rate.:cool:

[Gibbon]

cut cut cut to balance the budget and let the next admin.... Skate baby,
so you're saying we should inflate, inflate and inflate some more?

The real estate bubble, and the shaky securitized products it spawned, resulted from the Fed artificially setting interest rates too low. Had interest rates been allowed to find their market levels rather than be set by government decree, the real estate bubble never would have been inflated in the first place.

In a nation short on savings and heavy with debt, the free market would naturally set interest rates quite high. With lots of demand for credit, but a limited supply of savings, the risk of lending, and therefore the price of credit (interest rates), would be high.

Although onerous to borrowers, high rates would have both encouraged saving and discouraged borrowing. In the end, these market forces would reduce interest rates and produce a more stable balance between savings and consumption.

But the Fed did not want American consumers to be subjected to free market discipline that might otherwise reign in their non-stop spending.

After all, reckless consumption was falsely believed to be the engine of our prosperity!

So the Fed fixed the price of credit (interest rates) well below the rate that would have been set by the free market. This sent false economic signals to the market that more savings were available than actually existed, leading to an over-investment in housing.

Also, by keeping the rate of interest below the rate of inflation, rampant speculation was encouraged and the foundation was laid for the very type of mortgage financing that has now come back to bite us.

No one on Wall Street should be bailed out. The effects of the bursting of the housing bubble should be dealt with by the market, despite the fact that the underlying bubble itself was a byproduct of government intervention.

Apart from the problems created by interfering with the market's attempts to restore balance and reallocate resources, bailouts create all sorts of moral hazards (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moral_hazard).

After all, why should bailouts be limited to investment banks or overstretched homeowners? What about renters who also borrowed too much money? What about those behind on their credit cards, auto or student loans? Why shouldn't they get bailed out? How about small entrepreneurs whose start-up businesses failed - should they get bailed out as well?

In market economies all sorts of people lose money, sometimes as a result of circumstances entirely beyond their control. While this is clearly not the case for most homeowners and mortgage lenders, some would obviously fall within that category.

However, it is not up to the government to rescue them. Even if some borrowers and lenders were led astray by the false economic signals sent by the Fed, they are nevertheless responsible for any losses they might have incurred as a result of following them.

Bottom line: The real danger is that while government interference is actually at fault, it's the free-market that ends up taking the blame.

[riskman]

Let me see if I have this right - Bush takes over in 2000 and you want to blame him for all the problems - Not Clinton for the mess he left Bush. But now that the democrats have taken over it's still the republicans fault. Typical liberal logic.


The president did not veto a single bill during his first term in office. The last president who did not veto any bills was James Garfield (1831–1881). He had an excuse, however, since he was assassinated during his first year in office.Bush shares responsibility with the spendthrift Congresses that have for the past four years squandered not millions, not billions, but trillions of dollars of the taxpayers’ money.

But, it might be argued, Bush realized that most of the spending bills he signed into law were full of pork, but he had no choice – because so many important things were in these bills, it was imperative that the bills pass even though they also contained pork. The truth, howevever is that most of the spending bills sent by Congress to the president are mostly pork with just a few important things in them.

The greatest proof that President Bush does not have a fiscally conservative bone in his body, and that giving him a line item veto would not rein in government spending one iota, is not what Bush does with what Congress sends him but what Bush himself sends to the Congress.

Conservatives need to wake up and look in the mirror. The problem is not the Democrats or the liberal news media. The sad fact is that conservatives have no problem with trillion-dollar budgets as long as they are in charge of the government.Just like they have no problem with war as long it is their war. The fact that conservatives would have crucified Clinton if it was his trillion-dollar budget and his war shows that they are hypocrites without a shred of integrity.

[riskman]

Gibbon said:

"But the Fed did not want American consumers to be subjected to free market discipline that might otherwise reign in their non-stop spending.

After all, reckless consumption was falsely believed to be the engine of our prosperity!"



Well said. To see that requires that we take a long view. Government, however, seems constitutionally incapable of seeing the long term, much less doing the right thing to prepare for it. Making matters worse, this is that dreaded event called an election year. Prettying things up to make the economy palatable to voters is priority number one.

We can see the Bush administration resorted to its old program of sending checks out to every American family with the proviso that the money has to be spent, not saved.

No doubt that many people are thrilled by this. But look beneath the surface. Government has no money to spend on anything that it doesn't extract from the pockets of you and me and the whole American public. This is easy enough to see concerning taxes. It is not so easy to see when the government runs up debt that is guaranteed by the printing presses.

[ljb]

Gas prices are high thanks to dems - the majority of the blame lies with thier idiodic tree-hugging mentality.
Gas prices are high because the Republicans created massive bonuses for their lobbyists friends.

[JustRalph]

Gas prices are high because the Republicans created massive bonuses for their lobbyists friends.


yeah, right. Republicans have a control on the world Oil markets.......yeah right..........

[Gibbon]

While no one person or group, Bush or OPEC, controls the 71 million barrels of daily oil consumption by the world's economies, it is an undeniable fact ALL major commodities are denominated in US currency. As our greenback has spiraled into the abyss, commodities, as in natural resources have gone UP.

No conspiracy theory rather raw economic incompetence. Bush's reckless run away deficit spending directly leads us to free falling currency. The value of our monies is worth less thereby, inexorably leading to world recored inflation adjusted oil prices.

Energy costs are a hidden tax burden on all Americans.




We can see the Bush administration resorted to its old program of sending checks out to every American family with the proviso that the money has to be spent, not saved. Bush responding to September 11, 2001 said this... The unemployment rate has remained low, at 4.5 percent. A recent report on retail sales shows a strong beginning to the holiday shopping season across the country -- and I encourage you all to go shopping more --> http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/12/20061220-1.html

[PaceAdvantage]

The fact that conservatives would have crucified Clinton if it was his trillion-dollar budget and his war shows that they are hypocrites without a shred of integrity.This is actually an excellent point, on it's face. However, you leave out some very important historical perspectives when figuring this budget and this war.

I will agree though, there is massive hypocrisy....on BOTH sides....

[Valuist]

Please point to the post where I say we're in GOOD TIMES? I'm playing devil's advocate to those who claim Armageddon is upon us (and there are many out there).

I'm providing a much needed reality check. Take any indicator you'd like...I don't think I've seen ONE that is in the "traditional" recession zone. Not a one.

Now, I'm sure I've missed some, so maybe somebody more observant than I could post a few of the economic indicators that are in the traditional recession zone.

We've now seen two of the bigger bubbles in our country's history pop since 2000. If the tech nonsense wasn't bad enough (remember "new economy"?) we let another bubble develop and then get destroyed. I won't put the entire blame on the current administration, since Greenspan had a lot to do with creating BOTH bubbles, and the cheerleaders at CNBC do what they can to drive up stock prices, but they aren't free from guilt, either.

[JustRalph]

The more I learn about the cyclical tides of the economy the more I realize that things that happen now can have incredible effects ten years from now.

Kind of scary actually.

[PaceAdvantage]

By the way, all this talk of recession and depression (either real or imagined) sure gives employers plenty of real good excuses to let people go...."after all, we're in a recession, verge of a depression, etc. etc!"

As more than one person has rightly pointed out in the media and on this board, this recession, if it actually comes to pass, will have more to do with self-fulfilling prophecy than anything ground in reality.

[lsbets]

PA - there is no if. I don't know anyone in business who doesn't think we're in a recession. The jump in gas prices the last two weeks has had a huge and immediate impact on consumer spending. Its not a matter of excuses - businesses are bringing in less money because people are spending less, so layoffs and no raises are inevitable.

[PaceAdvantage]

PA - there is no if. I don't know anyone in business who doesn't think we're in a recession. The jump in gas prices the last two weeks has had a huge and immediate impact on consumer spending. Its not a matter of excuses - businesses are bringing in less money because people are spending less, so layoffs and no raises are inevitable.The price of regular here in NY is $3.39-$3.45 (more in the city)....levels we've seen before....

Yes, layoffs and no raises are inevitable if people stop spending, but RIGHT NOW, all this talk of recession sure provides a convenient excuse for some to get a jump start even if their business isn't exactly hurting yet....

[Lefty]

Gas prices are high because the Republicans created massive bonuses for their lobbyists friends.
Not even close lbj. It's dems who have stood in the way of oil exploration, refinery building and nuclear power in this country. The Pres has little to do with the price of gas. Why don't the dim Congress just remove some of the taxes?

[russowen77]

just my opinion but I think both partes deserve equal blame for this mess. 74 should have awakened them all but it didn't. No single idea or change will get us out of this until we actually develope some alternative sources that work.

I would be sweat to see oil become worthless.

[ddog]

By the way, all this talk of recession and depression (either real or imagined) sure gives employers plenty of real good excuses to let people go...."after all, we're in a recession, verge of a depression, etc. etc!"

As more than one person has rightly pointed out in the media and on this board, this recession, if it actually comes to pass, will have more to do with self-fulfilling prophecy than anything ground in reality.



I just don't know the "business" you are talking about.
Any business , especially small ones would MUCH rather be hiring people and not laying them off.

if a recession actually comes to pass then it will come to pass, it matters not how.
Of course, it has already come to pass.
B/D rates at BLS alone will show that, even though they are fudged in comparison to last recession as the way the figures are calculated has changed since 2001-2003.



You really seem to think that most all people do not act in what they think are their best interests.

If one sees he can't pay what he owes and sees no light in the short term, that you would encourage him to go out and borrow to spend no matter what?

Should we then allow anyone to wipe out their debt whenever they feel like it so they can start spending widly again?

You do realize that saving and investing is 100X better for the avg person than spending for a new car every couple of years or many of the stupid things people are taught they MUST have.
Capitalism without capital ain't much fun!

As to your "gloom and doom", do you think the gvt and the Fed were operating in a "gloom and doom" mode when they acted to bail out the fin system of the country, their words, not mine in the Bear deal?

Are they all idiots and being lead astray by the babble of the "goons"?

[46zilzal]

just my opinion but I think both parties deserve equal blame for this mess. 74 should have awakened them all but it didn't. No single idea or change will get us out of this until we actually develop some alternative sources that work.

I would be sweat to see oil become worthless.
That SHORTAGE was self made. There was no shortage on this side of the boundary.

[taxseason]

Gas prices are high thanks to dems - the majority of the blame lies with thier idiodic tree-hugging mentality.

What's wrong with you? You spout the most ridiclous nonsense time after time. On every subject you comment on you have no idea what your talking about. God gave you two ears and only one mouth for a reason. You need to listen twice as much as you talk. You can't learn anything if your always talking.

There have been two votes on Anwar drilling in the last 4 years. Both bills were killed by Republican Senators in a Republican controlled congress.


. Until the final moments, neither side was certain of victory, and the decision came down to two Republicans -- Senators Norm Coleman of Minnesota and Gordon H. Smith of Oregon -- whose opposition to drilling was not final until the floor vote.

More than enough Democrats voted in the affirmative to drill, it was the following Republican Senators that voted NAY , that killed the bills.

In addition to Mr. Coleman and Mr. Smith, the other Republicans voting against drilling were Senators Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, Susan Collins and Olympia J. Snowe of Maine, Mike DeWine of Ohio, Peter G. Fitzgerald of Illinois and John McCain of Arizona. Democrats voting for drilling were Senators Zell Miller of Georgia, John B. Breaux and Mary L. Landrieu of Louisiana, and Daniel K. Akaka and Daniel K. Inouye of Hawaii


You are one strange Human being. I hope you don't have access to young impressionable children.


EXXON and SHELL want to drill in Alaska because they love America and want Gas prices to go lower? Raise your hands if think that? All you naive little boys that think Shell Oil loves you and cares about you and they are your friend, I want all of you to raise your hands. This way we can identify the weak links in our citizenery.

[Tom]

You are one strange Human being. I hope you don't have access to young impressionable children.





Well, I was going to discuss this with some facts, like why we do not have any new refineries, why we don't drill in the Gulf, why the tree-hugging libs have hurt supply by mandating so many special blneds of fuel, but you seem too ignorant to do that.....So I'll just put you on IGGY since this seems to be the extent of your 3rd grade intelligence - more name calling, yadda yadda yadda. You are too much an insignificant waste of time to bother with. I'd rather dedvote that time to scratching my arse - and might even get a more adult reply out of it.

Just imagine me waving bye bye to you......imagine a 20% wave.....you huckleberry.

[skate]

Bill left office with oil less than $20.00 a barrel. Today's close: $106.23
Similar pattern on all essential commodities.

Bill left office with govt. expenditures 15% of GDP.
Under current communist occupation of my White House, govt. expenditures totals an astonishing 22% of GDP. Also, staggering growth of all deficits as measured by GAO.



Frightening growth along most all federal govt. agencies while the CIA and NSA have yet to capture the mastermind behind Sept. 11, 2001.




You look at One side.
How about giving a reason for oil at $15/ per and $106/per? Must be an Awful lot of Gov intervention.
Unless, maybe you think it could be "Supply and Demand".

OH oh oh, you give us a 15% of GDP, but you say Nothing about the Cuts in FBI, CIA and the Military that gave us a Low %.
And when we found out that we needed MORE security, which cost, where should this affect "Your %'?
Maybe UncleGeorge should just cut to the Bone and leave with a False Picture.

Also, how about a GDP figure "before and after", you give a percent ,but you fail to give a % of WHAT. You'll find the GDP went UP a higher % than the 7% increase you gave. And the 7% was needed.


Just in case that you did not notice, All Essential "Economies" Have Increased Along With The Commodities.

Hello hello, it's a new world out there. Globals...

[hcap]

PA - there is no if. I don't know anyone in business who doesn't think we're in a recession. The jump in gas prices the last two weeks has had a huge and immediate impact on consumer spending. Its not a matter of excuses - businesses are bringing in less money because people are spending less, so layoffs and no raises are inevitable.Most business owners around here agree. There is a large shopping Mall near me. Woodbury Common Premium Outlets.

http://www.premiumoutlets.com/outlets/outlet.asp?id=7

People from all over the world shop here taking advantage of the weak dollar. Low end to middle priced shops are experiencing lower sales. Very upscale stores however are still doing well. Great for buying a $2000 dollar glass crystal, but hurting the middle priced-even discounted shops pretty bad. I think this is a significant indicator for many stores in my area.

Another indicator out west
http://www.helenair.com/articles/2008/04/04/top/top/50lo_080404_railcars.txt

Railcars idle as economy falters
By SUSAN GALLAGHER - Associated Press- 04/04/08

CRAIG — BNSF Railway Co., the nation’s top hauler of container rail freight, is parking miles of railcars in Montana and elsewhere because there isn’t enough freight to keep them rolling. BNSF spokesman Gus Melonas says they have parked the cars on the unused line between Great Falls and Helena because freight demand has slowed and the cars are not needed at this time.

Cars that often carry 40-foot containers of goods shipped from Asia stand like an iron fence between the Missouri River and this Montana burg known for world-class fly fishing. They stretch as far as Sandee Cardinal can see when she stands outside her home on the river’s west bank between Helena and Great Falls.

‘‘What is that but a symbol of how America is down in the dumps right now?’’ Cardinal asked as she gazed at the cars that haven’t moved for about three months.

[JustRalph]

PA - there is no if. I don't know anyone in business who doesn't think we're in a recession. The jump in gas prices the last two weeks has had a huge and immediate impact on consumer spending. Its not a matter of excuses - businesses are bringing in less money because people are spending less, so layoffs and no raises are inevitable.

Still regional effects in place. My wife's restaurant is up over 30% in last 6 mths. Much of this is due to poor management in the last few years. She has turned the place around. But money is still moving around down here in the Charlotte area. If you are a Restaurant Chain that relys on travel, you are screwed. i.e. Cracker Barrel and highway style restaurants.

Charlotte is just now starting to feel the pain in some areas.

I will say that other stores in her company are echoing your opine LS. Mid Atlantic states especially.

[ceejay]

Still regional effects in place. Oklahoma unemployment rate 3.5%. $109 oil $9 net gas helps someone.

[JustRalph]

Still regional effects in place. My wife's restaurant is up over 30% in last 6 mths. Much of this is due to poor management in the last few years. She has turned the place around. But money is still moving around down here in the Charlotte area. If you are a Restaurant Chain that relies on travel, you are screwed. i.e. Cracker Barrel and highway style restaurants.

Charlotte is just now starting to feel the pain in some areas.

I will say that other stores in her company are echoing your opine LS. Mid Atlantic states especially.

spelling corrected................ :bang:

[lsbets]

Most business owners around here agree. There is a large shopping Mall near me. Woodbury Common Premium Outlets.

http://www.premiumoutlets.com/outlets/outlet.asp?id=7

People from all over the world shop here taking advantage of the weak dollar. Low end to middle priced shops are experiencing lower sales. Very upscale stores however are still doing well. Great for buying a $2000 dollar glass crystal, but hurting the middle priced-even discounted shops pretty bad. I think this is a significant indicator for many stores in my area.

Another indicator out west
http://www.helenair.com/articles/2008/04/04/top/top/50lo_080404_railcars.txt

Railcars idle as economy falters
By SUSAN GALLAGHER - Associated Press- 04/04/08

CRAIG — BNSF Railway Co., the nation’s top hauler of container rail freight, is parking miles of railcars in Montana and elsewhere because there isn’t enough freight to keep them rolling. BNSF spokesman Gus Melonas says they have parked the cars on the unused line between Great Falls and Helena because freight demand has slowed and the cars are not needed at this time.

Cars that often carry 40-foot containers of goods shipped from Asia stand like an iron fence between the Missouri River and this Montana burg known for world-class fly fishing. They stretch as far as Sandee Cardinal can see when she stands outside her home on the river’s west bank between Helena and Great Falls.

‘‘What is that but a symbol of how America is down in the dumps right now?’’ Cardinal asked as she gazed at the cars that haven’t moved for about three months.

Hcap - we can disagree on the reasons and the solutions (I have no doubt we do), but I am surprised that otherwise intelligent people can't recognize that we are in an economic downturn.

PA - when you are handicapping a race is it more important to see who the winner is after the race ran or to recognize what will happen before the gates open? Your waiting for a proclamation of two consecutive quarters of negative growth before you recognize what is happening is a bit disappointing, especially from someone who has some handicapping and trading skills. Economic cycles are normal and inevitable, and we are in the middle of a negative trend. Of course no one will really no when we've hit the bottom until we look back and say "Hey, there it was", but there is no question the trend is not going in the direction most folks would prefer.

Ralph - Texas has weathered this better than almost any state, but the rapid rise in energy prices over the last two weeks has stretched people to their limits. I take comfort in some sick way from hearing about shared misery with my fellow business owners. There is at least some consolation in hearing that everyone is slower than normal right now, it keeps me from worrying about whether or not I'm doing something wrong.

[chickenhead]

I agree with everyone I guess, we are in the middle of a pull back, and it's a normal healthy thing. I don't think it is or is going to be as bad as some people think.

For me and my area, the post boom times of 2001 and what went on were much much worse than anything my area is going to see this time around, it's not even close. Many many billions of wealth evaporated from my modestly sized city and county, seemingly overnight. Whammo. We were in the eye of it, and we got our teeth kicked in.

Fast forward a few years later, same tech type company, sales are going through the roof, earnings up, going great guns, global growth and all that jazz.

Everyone gets their turn in the barrel, I guess.

[PaceAdvantage]

Any business , especially small ones would MUCH rather be hiring people and not laying them off.[quote]Not during a slowdown, which is what we are in....not a recession, and certainly not a depression.

[quote]B/D rates at BLS alone will show that, even though they are fudged in comparison to last recession as the way the figures are calculated has changed since 2001-2003.Yes, we know....everything is fixed and fudged now since Bush took office. Everything before Bush was simple, pure and clean. Clinton's 5.1% unemployment figure actually translates to 1.8% in today's terms....

As to your "gloom and doom", do you think the gvt and the Fed were operating in a "gloom and doom" mode when they acted to bail out the fin system of the country, their words, not mine in the Bear deal?Bear deal? Yeah, that was some deal for Bear....they go from one of the greatest international investment banks in the world to a non-entity....stock price goes from $180 to $4 in a little over one year....quite the deal.....how exactly did Bear Sterns get saved here?

[PaceAdvantage]

PA - when you are handicapping a race is it more important to see who the winner is after the race ran or to recognize what will happen before the gates open? Your waiting for a proclamation of two consecutive quarters of negative growth before you recognize what is happening is a bit disappointing, especially from someone who has some handicapping and trading skills. Economic cycles are normal and inevitable, and we are in the middle of a negative trend. Of course no one will really no when we've hit the bottom until we look back and say "Hey, there it was", but there is no question the trend is not going in the direction most folks would prefer.If you're trying to say we are in the middle of an economic slowdown, then I say "I agree 100%"

I have never stated otherwise.

I would still like to see someone present a conventional economic indicator that is sitting firmly in the traditional "recession zone."

Economists KNOW the levels at which certain economic barometers scream recession, and yet none of these have been hit yet. And, as I've said before, I know I'm far from perfect and I don't know everything, which is why I requested help in locating some of these economic barometers that are clearly in the "R zone."

To date, nobody has helped me out by pointing out one I may have missed....

As an example, for the month of March, the US economy lost 63,000 jobs, only the SECOND consecutive month of negative job growth. Most economists have argued in the past that during a recession, this number should hit 150,000-180,000, topping out at around 300,000+ . Over the last three recessions, our economy lost jobs a MINIMUM of ELEVEN (11) STRAIGHT MONTHS!!!

We're currently on our second month.....and we only lost 63k

Maybe this is the beginning of the greatest economic downturn ever recorded, but at the moment, it's a slowdown, and nothing more...

Perhaps people don't pay attention to economic figures anymore, and relate them to past recessions.

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/story-images/2008/04/other/other/NFP1_4-3.gif

[hcap]

Greenspan disagrees with you. From Drudge no less.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080408/bs_nm/usa_economy_greenspan_dc

Greenspan, on CNBC: U.S. in recession

Tue Apr 8, 6:28 PM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Tuesday the U.S. economy was in recession, and said it would be appropriate to tap public funds to resolve the mortgage-related crisis that has helped pull the economy under.

.................................................. ....................

He also said Iraq as everyone knows is about OIL.
3 days later he sort of changed his mind.
Maybe he will get cold feet again?

[Gibbon]

....it's a new world out there. Globals... There is nothing new under the sun that past human civilizations haven't already dealt with. Your Keynesian (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_economics) economic philosophy of “deficits don't matter” and consumers are the key to financial growth will lead us to economic destruction....

The exponential growth by so called Asian Tigers most notable, resource barren Hong Kong, proves Milton Friedman (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_Friedman#Economics) and his “Chicago boys” were spot on. Low taxes coupled with a firm currency and encouragement of savings and investing is the key to America's future.

This foolish notion that Americas' economy is based on consume, consume and consume has lead to current conditions. Skate allow me to ask you a personal question – do you spend all your income? If no, why not?

Communist America {help me George Bush} needs to look at capitalist China/South Vietnam/Singapore/Peru {just do it} before we rely on our very existence from govt. mandate. Private capital is used more effectively than public capital.





__________________________________
Concentrated power is not rendered harmless by the good intentions of those who create it. ~ Milton Friedman

Governments never learn. Only people learn. ~ Milton Friedman

[russowen77]

I guess times are better in certain parts of the country. I am having to leave my beautiful home and go back to work for the Gov. Better than poverty.

The one thing I will give the Gov is that they don't care how old I am. Right now they just want my experience and the fact that I am morally destitute in certain areas.

I am sure going to miss Hot Springs. It is beautiful here.

[Gibbon]

I do understand your plight. However, Govt. does not have any money. Govt must extort your fellow taxpayers or print money to cut you a check. If govt at any level {State, Local, Federal} simulated Americans' to save, invest and produce NOT consume, you would not have to look for govt as a rescuer.

China produces, America consumes. A recipe for disaster.





___________________________
The government solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem. ~ Milton Friedman

[russowen77]

I do understand your plight. However, Govt. does not have any money. Govt must extort your fellow taxpayers or print money to cut you a check. If govt at any level {State, Local, Federal} simulated Americans' to save, invest and produce NOT consume, you would not have to look for govt as a rescuer.

China produces, America consumes. A recipe for disaster.





___________________________
The government solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem. ~ Milton Friedman
You misunderstand. I am not recruiting them. Just the opposite. I just hate the fact that I have to go back into the belly of the beast.

You can say all you want that I am a drain on the taxpayer or whatever language you choose. It doesn't matter one iota to me. I have to live everyday with who I am.

I will fully admit that I am not a good civilian. If you think that you enjoy all the benefits of the US without people like me go right ahead. At this point I could care less. I hear that same rap from non vets all the time.

[Gibbon]

I am NOT berating you in any fashion. Please don't take it personal. We need govt. police, fire dept. infrastructure maintenance, etc... In your shoes I would do the same.

I was speaking on a national level. Govt. causes the very problems it claims to have fixes for. Post 13 page 1 of this thread.
My sincerest apology if you felt slighted in any way.






_____________________________
The government solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem. ~ Milton Friedman

[russowen77]

I am NOT berating you in any fashion. Please don't take it personal. We need govt. police, fire dept. infrastructure maintenance, etc... In your shoes I would do the same.

I was speaking on a national level. Govt. causes the very problems it claims to have fixes for. Post 13 page 1 of this thread.
My sincerest apology if you felt slighted in any way.






_____________________________
The government solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem. ~ Milton Friedman
No need to apologize. After 3 straight years of war I was told by a VA rep that I was a drain on the America taxpayer because I was having trouble sleeping. He of course had never served.

They , the Gov, asked for much, and pay for little. You are just the voice of the majority. That is something I understand.

Luckily for me, they(Gov) are in deep Kim Shee again and need my services.

[Gibbon]

You are correct I am the voice of the majority. We have NOT forgotten the Walter Reed disgrace.

My commander and chief did not ask of me or my fellow countrymen for any sacrifices. My commander and chief told me to 'go shopping.' It was not I who cut VA's budget. I would have gladly included allowances for police action war time.

[russowen77]

You are correct I am the voice of the majority. We have NOT forgotten the Walter Reed disgrace.

My commander and chief did not ask of me or my fellow countrymen for any sacrifices. My commander and chief told me to 'go shopping.' It was not I who cut VA's budget. I would have gladly included allowances for police action war time.
I don't understand your take but then I am an old poop. Politcians, including your commander and chief don't matter to me. They are just temps. The real power is the Gov. America has no real clue imo.

[skate]

Kim Shee:lol:

[skate]

There is nothing new under the sun that past human civilizations haven't already dealt with. Your Keynesian (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_economics) economic philosophy of “deficits don't matter” and consumers are the key to financial growth will lead us to economic destruction....




let me look at Some of your points here.

If we went and put our current life style back into 100, 200, 500 years ago, im thinking about confusion, along with way TOO much power and control.

Over time, we adjust. So, many changes keep occuring, always. People have never dealt with the present situation. but that's easy...

I get a kick, when most people, who don't agree, say things like """"Deficits Don't Mater".

My point is simple, Deficits(wisely) are good. That's a big jump from "deficits don't mater", ya think?

My point is only good if we consider the structure of our present economy.
With inflation alone, a person or a nation would fall behind without investing.
Investing without debt, would not even keep you current, no growth.
Many good reasons for the USA to have debt, but if inflation stays at 4% and we did not continue a debt at 4% or more, we would not see any growth.

That building that put us into debt for $100,000, will be worth $250,000 within ten years. No debt=no building=no growth.

this does not say that everything grows, always. on the average, im ahead, while if you did not go into debt, you are behind.
Not only do i have a building worth $250,000, but for you to build the same building, you'll need $300,000 CASH.

[Gibbon]

My point is simple, Deficits(wisely) are good. That's a big jump from "deficits don't mater", ya think? I did NOT say it! Vice President Dick Cheney said it. George Bush demonstrated those words by practicing reckless spending during his first six years. We are suffering economic slowdown perpetuated by so called “sub prime” mortgages - that is audacious consumer spending on big ticket items.

And now what? Help us govt. Help us Ben 'obe one' Bernanke. Adventures spending brought down the Soviet Empire. We have economic communist in my white house!

Consequences Skate, unintended consequences.






_____________________________
http://www.shieldsnet.org/images/strange/rubens_bill_and_monica.jpg

[Gibbon]

Skate,

There are fundamental economic reasons for the moves we're seeing in commodities. But those moves are being turbocharged by the easy-money policies of the Fed.

One measure of U.S. money supply {M2 (http://economics.about.com/library/glossary/bldef-m2.htm)} surged at a 17.9% annualized rate in February. I have a Bloomberg chart that goes all the way back to 1959 on this indicator. Cannot reproduce it here for copyright infringement reasons. It has only risen this quickly a handful of times in U.S. history.

The Fed is clearly playing a perilous game by slashing rates and shifting the presses into overdrive at a time when inflation pressures are high, the dollar is weak, and commodities are through the roof.

So Wall Street may appreciate what the Fed is doing. They may like the fact that they're on the receiving end of all this Fed largesse. But the rest of us are taking a real hit to our standard of living as a result ... and we're setting some dangerous precedents for the future...

While Asia encourages savings and investments we encouraging consumption by printing money and keeping artificially low interest rates is plainly stupid.





________________________________________
A collapse in U.S. stock prices certainly would cause a lot of white knuckles on Wall Street. But what effect would it have on the broader U.S. economy? If Wall Street crashes, does Main Street follow? Not necessarily. ~ Ben Bernanke

[hcap]

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/NYT_Retailer_bankruptcies_set_to_prompt_0414.html

A growing number of bankruptcies among US retailers is set to prompt thousands of store closings, the New York Times will report on the front page of its Tuesday edition.

"The consumer spending slump and tightening credit markets are triggering a wave of bankruptcies in American retailing," with ensuing store closures "expected to remake suburban malls and downtown shopping districts across the country," writes Michael Barbaro for the Times.

Barbaro notes that over half a dozen store chains have filed for bankruptcy in recent months amidst "mounting debt and plummeting sales" and warns that financial troubles are "quickly spreading to bigger national companies."


...Since last fall, eight mostly midsize chains — as diverse as the furniture store Levitz and the electronics seller Sharper Image — have filed for bankruptcy protection as they staggered under mounting debt and declining sales.

But the troubles are quickly spreading to bigger national companies, like Linens ‘n Things, the bedding and furniture retailer with 500 stores in 47 states. It may file for bankruptcy as early as this week, according to people briefed on the matter.

Even retailers that can avoid bankruptcy are shutting down stores to preserve cash through what could be a long economic downturn. Over the next year, Foot Locker said it would close 140 stores, Ann Taylor will start to shutter 117 and the jeweler Zales will close 100.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/15/business/15retail.html?_r=1&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin

Regional?

[ljb]

Ah yes, all the republicans chickens are coming home to roost.
Some here have railed against the economic policies and laws put forth by Bush and the lapdogs in congress for these past 7 years. With the expansive rise in prices and the decrease in decent paying jobs we appear to be experiencing stagflation. I don't really give a damn about m2 or percent of gdp, I really give a damn about having to pay $50 for a tank of gas and $4 for a gallon of milk while my income remains stagnant. And yes I am bitter.

[ddog]

[QUOTE=ddog]Any business , especially small ones would MUCH rather be hiring people and not laying them off.[quote]Not during a slowdown, which is what we are in....not a recession, and certainly not a depression.

Yes, we know....everything is fixed and fudged now since Bush took office. Everything before Bush was simple, pure and clean. Clinton's 5.1% unemployment figure actually translates to 1.8% in today's terms....

Bear deal? Yeah, that was some deal for Bear....they go from one of the greatest international investment banks in the world to a non-entity....stock price goes from $180 to $4 in a little over one year....quite the deal.....how exactly did Bear Sterns get saved here?

To my knowledge those figures were not "fixed" as you say according to a Bush mandate.
Your silly injection of that small opinion is yours not mine.
You rail about posting stats/info.
Why, when if you are not willing to go to the site to see the adjustments made then what would be the point?

To the best of my understanding the "fixes" were intended to be just that.
Just as one would adjust a track variant and speed figures as horses ran back.

It is pointless to try to carry on a rational thread if you are always going to view it as a bash Bush starter.

On the Bear deal, that was a figure of speech, I don't see where it connotes a saving of any kind?

I hate to have to tell you this but deals can be good or bad for the participants.

As I have said on many different threads BEAR was not bailed out , the FED hoped they were bailing out the markets in the BEAR DEAL. See, that's how it works.

I challenge you to find one post where I stated what you twist-posted here.

As to hiring, any small business would much rather be hiring than layoff people.
Have you ever done either?
slowdown or speedup, that's always true, for if you can hire during a slowdown then you have a chance to build while others are taking a hit.

market share and all that.
the relationship for the long run is what matters.

doesn't matter if you got the customer during a slowdown or not, once you get them you have a chance to keep them.


I will give you the benefit of the doubt on some of these.
You are pressed for time with this board I would guess.

[JustRalph]

Ah yes, all the republicans chickens are coming home to roost.
Some here have railed against the economic policies and laws put forth by Bush and the lapdogs in congress for these past 7 years. With the expansive rise in prices and the decrease in decent paying jobs we appear to be experiencing stagflation. I don't really give a damn about m2 or percent of gdp, I really give a damn about having to pay $50 for a tank of gas and $4 for a gallon of milk while my income remains stagnant. And yes I am bitter.

So, our plan is working!!!! :lol: :lol:

[ljb]

Yes it is !!! :mad: :mad:

[skate]

I did NOT say it! Vice President Dick Cheney said it. George Bush demonstrated those words by practicing reckless spending during his first six years. We are suffering economic slowdown perpetuated by so called “sub prime” mortgages - that is audacious consumer spending on big ticket items.

And now what? Help us govt. Help us Ben 'obe one' Bernanke. Adventures spending brought down the Soviet Empire. We have economic communist in my white house!

Consequences Skate, unintended consequences.



Woo woo woo, You didn't say "IT"?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gibbon
There is nothing new under the sun that past human civilizations haven't already dealt with. Your Keynesian (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_economics) economic philosophy of “deficits don't matter” and consumers are the key to financial growth will lead us to economic destruction....

But when you write the above "deficits don't mater". i assumtedly thought you were tagging Me (the-skate).

People like to Stretc.............h what others say, and then you know what happens, like wisper down the lane.:cool:
When u used "your" Keynesian phil.... i thought you ment the renown one.

[skate]

Gibbons.


two points.
1) the odds for people, politician and/or the media saying that debt is good (which it is) is about 1 to 473.

2) Liquidity and Panic are causing problems.


Media and Politicians are driving the Panic.
Every big economic downturn (always, i have the figures) happens when the fed cuts spending to balance the Fed.
When the Fed is in Balance, it's in appearance only.

[Tom]

So, our plan is working!!!! :lol: :lol:

Kennedy, Kerry, Clinton, Dodd, Reid, ljb.........Grumpy old men, all bitter!
Did you ever see a happy lib? :lol::lol::lol:

[chickenhead]

Every big economic downturn (always, i have the figures) happens when the fed cuts spending to balance the Fed.

Federal spending has never been cut. At least not in the last 50 years.

Revenues temporarily overshot spending awhile back because the S&P was trading temporarily at 40x earnings, and everyone thought we were in a post-coital Cold War bliss.

It's a nice thought that if the government had only borrowed a few hundred billion more, the stock market never would have gone down, the corrupt accounting and practices that underpinned a portion of it would not have happened, no business model companies would have somehow made money hand over fist...and 9-11 wouldn't have occurred. Fantasy land, but nice.

[Tom]

Here is how the feds cut spending:

Allocate 100 billion for something that is curenty getting 25 billion.
Then cut it back to 50 billion.

Then claim they cut spending 50% when they actually doubled it.
You cannot be sane and think like the governement - it will drive you crazy.

The only purpose of governement is to spend your money and limit your rights.
They do nothing else - nothing else. Government is never a good thing.

[Lefty]

Right on Tom, and because of baseline budgeting, if each prgm or dept doesn't spend it's entire budget for the current year then they don't get the increase. It's ever upward spiraling...

[robert99]

Right on Tom, and because of baseline budgeting, if each prgm or dept doesn't spend it's entire budget for the current year then they don't get the increase. It's ever upward spiraling...

And a taxpayer's dollar is only worth 10 cents to them - unlike their own pay packets where it reaches 100 cents again.

[russowen77]

iI hate these job stats. 15 years ago there were good jobs in manufacturing that paid 15-20 bucks an hour and people could live well. They are basically gone.

The one bright side is that some jobs are coming back. One of the largest employers in HS is a customer service operation that was in India. They can now hire US workers cheaper than those in New Dehli.

I guess there is a bright side to everything.