Warpass in the Wood Memorial

[Burls]

A Question:

What kind of odds would you need to bet on Warpass in the Wood Memorial?


Another Question:

What do you think the Post Time odds on Warpass will be?

[juanepstein]

toss his last,hes running 2nd race off a 20+ layoff. also if its an off track hes out of prospector so hell handle it better than 75% of the field.

he wont even touch 3/1.

i wont even bet the race.

[classhandicapper]

This is one of those difficult scenarios where the correct odds are dependent on the probability you assign to War Pass running his "A" race vs. another dud.

Sometimes an otherwise consistent horse inexplicably runs a poor race and then bounces back next out. Other times it's more of an indication that he's going off form for some reason (usually something bothering him physically).

This horse had some question marks about him to begin with because he's been loose on the lead in his impressive races. In his last race he got banged around a little, was wide, didn't make the lead, was eased up a bit etc... Perhaps with an easier trip and that experience under his belt he will bounce back.

One problem I have with that scenario is Zito. Zito ran Noble Causeway at Saratoga a couple of years ago and had no idea the horse was a mess. If I had more faith in Zito's horsemanship I guess I'd have more faith that this horse would bounce back.

As it is, the public is probably going to make him the favorite, but not nearly as big a favorite as he would have been if it was more certain he would run his "A" race. I think that's probably the correct way to think about it.

It's just a matter of what % you assign to him running his "A" race vs. another dud. Personally, I can't see how you can confidently assign a probability.

I am likely to pass unless the odds get so extreme I feel compelled to bet.

[john del riccio]

First of all, how is it that the DRF distrubution systemm ALWAYS seems to fail

on racings bigger days. I just went to the store to get my saturday form &* they didnt't get any, went to 2 other places and tyhey didnt either. Call me old school, but I need my DRF ! Online PP's just don't have a good vibe for me....

Sorry for the rant...

WRT the Wood & WAR PASS. I will post the figs for this race once I get some work done here but I trulu think they are going to take it to him early. Based
on my pace ratings, it certainly appears that WAR PASS ain't gonna get an easy lead here without completely screwing himsef in the process.

TEXAS WILDCATTER to his inside and ROMAN EMPEROR/ GIANT MOON to his outside showed more speed in their last races than WAR PASS has in either of his two 3yo starts. With that said, its raining here now & will likely do so through saturday so that does alter things somewhat but all of the horses mentioned have shown ability over an off track. WAR PASSES BC win at MTH in the slop is obviously better than any of these have shown but there is
some underlying factors at work here. MTH was very quirky for the days leading up to BC day as many quality horses didn't fire.

My personal approach to exusing bad races is straight forward. I always give a quality horse the benefit of the doubt for a bad race, especially at a price.
I will also wait for a horse to throw in two clinkers under similiar conditions prior to getting cold on him. WAR PASS has had two starts as a 3yo and he hasn't gotten back to his A race as a 2yo or his B race. Today he is going to face some serious pressure as well. If the track does not play to early speed or pressers, I think I would stay away from him. If it does play to speed or pressers, I am not convinced he is playable at a short price. Will post more later.

John

[Robert Fischer]

A Question:

What kind of odds would you need to bet on Warpass in the Wood Memorial?


Another Question:

What do you think the Post Time odds on Warpass will be?

1. 5-1
2. 5-2:bang:

[rokitman]

1. 5-1
2. 5-2:bang:
I predict he'll be less than even money again.

[Donnie]

John-
Don't know if this is the case...but the larger crowds at the track demand more issues on-track. I doubt they change their production schedules for one day. So those extra on-track issues have to come from somewhere!

[ny0707ny]

He should be the favorite. I think he will give a huge performance this weekend judging by his last workout.
I did see a clip of him working out that ESPN played the other week. He looked great. It was only breezing though. I haven't seen him in so long. He looks better than any other horse in Derby.

If you picked horses by looks alone, which I don't but it is a part of handicapping, he would get my pick all the time.

[rokitman]

He should be the favorite. I think he will give a huge performance this weekend judging by his last workout.
I did see a clip of him working out that ESPN played the other week. He looked great. It was only breezing though. I haven't seen him in so long. He looks better than any other horse in Derby.

If you picked horses by looks alone, which I don't but it is a part of handicapping, he would get my pick all the time.
It's become clear to me that you are madly in love with War Pass, 07! It's very sweet ;)

[Marshall Bennett]

Even money or less ... :cool:

[whyhorseofcourse]

You guys got to be kidding.
He may have ran a bad race but he is still much the best in the field.
If he runs his race that he ran at the Breeders Cup or even in Gulfstream allowance he will win by at least 10 lengths.

I say 1/2.
If he is greater than 1/2, I will be him. And consider it a gift.

[classhandicapper]

My personal approach to exusing bad races is straight forward. I always give a quality horse the benefit of the doubt for a bad race, especially at a price.
I will also wait for a horse to throw in two clinkers under similiar conditions prior to getting cold on him. WAR PASS has had two starts as a 3yo and he hasn't gotten back to his A race as a 2yo or his B race.
John

John,

I understand your thinking, but I'd be willing to bet that most people here didn't take the figure for his first start at face value because it was an obvious prep and he wasn't asked to run. He looked good that day.

I think this is a case where you have to assume he's at least capable of returning to his best 2YO form tomorrow unless he has some sort of undiagnosed problem. Lots of spring 3YOs don't develop much off their 2YO form, but very few go backwards unless they have a physical problem.

There isn't a snowball's chance in hell I'd take a very short price on him because I think there an "X" chance he's simply not the same horse because something IS bothering him, he needs to get loose to run his best, he's really a sprinter/miler etc.... But I am totally ignoring the figure he earned in his first start in my thinking of what he "might" be capable of tomorrow.

[njcurveball]

Pace scenario is the key factor, not the bad last start. If you grade the race and see him getting to the lead unchallenged, go in with both hands. The poor finish will only add a few quarters to the price.

One thing too many people try to do is play trainer and most do it after the race saying if a horse should or should not have run. Our job as investors is to forecast the most likely outcomes and assign probabilities to them.

This horse is a win/win for Monday Morning quarterbacks. If he runs well, there will be plenty of posts saying they KNEW the bad race meant nothing.

If he runs poorly, there will be plenty of posts saying they KNEW he was off form and would run terrible DUE TO the bad race.

Net effect on the odds will be less than a dollar. So unless you can find a favorable pace scenario, probably an underlay again.

Jim

[john del riccio]

John-
Don't know if this is the case...but the larger crowds at the track demand more issues on-track. I doubt they change their production schedules for one day. So those extra on-track issues have to come from somewhere!

Donnie,

Thanks, that makes sense. I founf one 2 towns over at lunch. Yes, I'm nutty that way !

John

PS WP shows just a 1/2 mil edrill ? I'm getting colder & colder...

[Tom]

I will be watching the post parade very closely Saturday.
Not I could tell if anything was wrong. :rolleyes:

[GaryG]

He is 6-5 on the line....likely to go lower.

[rokitman]

I will be watching the post parade very closely Saturday.
Not I could tell if anything was wrong. :rolleyes:
I'll be sitting on the edge of my seat, with an itchy trigger finger, waiting to send in my "I knew he didn't look right!!!" post if he throws out a parachute again. The key is to send it in right when it happens. Then the minute in the time-stamp on my post will be the same as when it happened and you guys will never be able to prove in court if my post was just before or just after, and glory will be mine! :cool:

[asH]

slop or mud... Aqu closed down the track Fri just for this race...Zito's got the juice

[ny0707ny]

I don't believe he hit is head on the flight up here. He needed some stitches. But I doubt it will effect his race at all.

This horse is not having good luck latley. I think tomorrow will still be a huge performance.

[Boris]

This will be your last chance to bet this over-acheiving sprinter on the Derby Trail. Keep your eye on the show pools. May be an excellent place to be.

Good Luck to the faithful.

[ny0707ny]

He already ran a 113 at 1 1/16 miles. Sprinters wouldn't be able to go that far. He can handle the distance I think without a problem.

[ENOTE96]

I'LL WATCH AND HOPE HE WINS BY 10

EASY TOSS OUT IN DERBY

[michiken]

If War Pass does not win or even run a respectable race....

I think Zito's stock goes way down for getting new 2 year olds that are possible derby prospects.

'Burn em up Nick'.