A Soggy Wood

[Norm]

Handicapping the Wood Memorial this Weekend ? I recommend purchasing the special, water-proof edition of the DRF. If Accu-weather is correct (and they are correct almost half of the time), it will start raining around AQU late Thursday night, all day Friday and all day Saturday until just after 6:00 p.m. The rain should stop just in time for the 11th race. (The Wood is the 9th). It's a good thing that AQU is not an all-weather track or they would be in trouble.

The entries, in post position order, are : [1]Texas Wildcatter, [2] Spurrier, [3] Court Vision, [4] First Commandment, [5] War Pass, [6] Roman Emperor, [7] Giant Moon, [8] Tale of Ekati, [9] Inner Light, [10] Anak Nakal.

Hmm . . . are there and good mud runners in that batch ? . . . <grin>

[rokitman]

Handicapping the Wood Memorial this Weekend ? I recommend purchasing the special, water-proof edition of the DRF. If Accu-weather is correct (and they are correct almost half of the time), it will start raining around AQU late Thursday night, all day Friday and all day Saturday until just after 6:00 p.m. The rain should stop just in time for the 11th race. (The Wood is the 9th). It's a good thing that AQU is not an all-weather track or they would be in trouble.[/size]

[size=3]The entries, in post position order, are : [1]Texas Wildcatter, [2] Spurrier, [3] Court Vision, [4] First Commandment, [5] War Pass, [6] Roman Emperor, [7] Giant Moon, [8] Tale of Ekati, [9] Inner Light, [10] Anak Nakal.

Hmm . . . are there and good mud runners in that batch ? . . . <grin> :D

[Bubbles]

As it stands now, the Wood sets up for a frontrunner. There are only two true frontrunners in the whole field: War Pass and Giant Moon. Giant Moon was beaten 47 lengths in the Gotham, which was also run over a sloppy track. Given War Pass's romp in the slop at Monmouth at two, this is War Pass's race to lose.

For exotics, I think Tale of Ekati is live. He showed a little life in his first start back off a layoff, and has every excuse to improve in a race not full of world-beaters. I also like Court Vision underneath, but I doubt there'll be playable odds there.

[FlyinLate]

For exotics, I think Tale of Ekati is live. He showed a little life in his first start back off a layoff, and has every excuse to improve in a race not full of world-beaters. I also like Court Vision underneath, but I doubt there'll be playable odds there.

I'm personally one who has been boasting about Tale of Ekati from day one (he hasn't given me much). As much as I love the horse, he did NOT take well to the slop at Monmouth in the BC Juvy. If the track is in descent shape he will be my play and in heavy exotics with War Pass. If the track is sloppy, I may pass on him.

[juanepstein]

best mudders

war pass- mr prospector
court vision- mr prospector


texas wildcatter- maria's mon...superb off track blood but might not be up to par with mr prospector.

[Burls]

Handicapping the Wood Memorial this Weekend ? I recommend purchasing the special, water-proof edition of the DRF. If Accu-weather is correct (and they are correct almost half of the time), it will start raining around AQU late Thursday night, all day Friday and all day Saturday until just after 6:00 p.m. The rain should stop just in time for the 11th race. (The Wood is the 9th). It's a good thing that AQU is not an all-weather track or they would be in trouble.

It sounds like it'll be just like the Gotham.
If the track was smaller, maybe someone could try this strategy.

In a race on January 11, 1990, Jockey Sylvester Carmouche dropped out of the one-mile race near the starting gate and he hid in a blanket of thick fog. He waited for the rest of the field to begin approaching behind him and rejoined the race, well ahead of the other horses. Carmouche won by 24 lengths aboard 23-to-1 longshot Landing Officer.

The 24-length victory in near track-record time raised eyebrows. Jockeys aboard other horses in the race came forward, saying they never saw Carmouche pass them.

Carmouche was given a ten-year suspension from racing but was reinstated after eight years.

[ryesteve]

Sounds like a no-win situation; if WP wins by 8, people will say the track carried him...

[rokitman]

It sounds like it'll be just like the Gotham.
If the track was smaller, maybe someone could try this strategy.

In a race on January 11, 1990, Jockey Sylvester Carmouche dropped out of the one-mile race near the starting gate and he hid in a blanket of thick fog. He waited for the rest of the field to begin approaching behind him and rejoined the race, well ahead of the other horses. Carmouche won by 24 lengths aboard 23-to-1 longshot Landing Officer.

The 24-length victory in near track-record time raised eyebrows. Jockeys aboard other horses in the race came forward, saying they never saw Carmouche pass them.

Carmouche was given a ten-year suspension from racing but was reinstated after eight years.
I wasn't aware that happened. That's astounding.

[Bruddah]

Sounds like a no-win situation; if WP wins by 8, people will say the track carried him...

Whose to say what the track/weather conditions will be on the first Saturday in May. It could very well be a sloppy track. :)

[ryesteve]

Whose to say what the track/weather conditions will be on the first Saturday in May. It could very well be a sloppy track. :)
No doubt... I'm just saying that no matter how well he might run tomorrow, a lot of people will find cause to avoid saying that he redeemed himself.

[rokitman]

Whose to say what the track/weather conditions will be on the first Saturday in May. It could very well be a sloppy track. :)
Or 98% humidity.

Some of those inexplicable poor races from top contenders in Florida must have something do with the oppressive humidity there.

Tagg said Elysium Fields was very near heat stroke after the Florida Derby. I know I've been very near heat stroke down there just walking from my air conditioned room to my air conditioned car.

[rokitman]

As it stands now, the Wood sets up for a frontrunner. There are only two true frontrunners in the whole field: War Pass and Giant Moon. Giant Moon was beaten 47 lengths in the Gotham, which was also run over a sloppy track. Given War Pass's romp in the slop at Monmouth at two, this is War Pass's race to lose.

For exotics, I think Tale of Ekati is live. He showed a little life in his first start back off a layoff, and has every excuse to improve in a race not full of world-beaters. I also like Court Vision underneath, but I doubt there'll be playable odds there.
I saw the trainer of Giant Moon interviewed somewhere a while back in which he spoke very much as if he would not be running him on a sloppy track again.

[NYPlayer]

Sounds like a no-win situation; if WP wins by 8, people will say the track carried him...

You won't have to worry about that.

[NYPlayer]

It's not raining now, and actually the forcast for tomorrow predicts some light rain in the morning and then a mostly cloudy remainder of the day. Still, we had a good bit of rain over the past 24 hours, and the track will probably be rated as good or muddy for the Wood.

As for the race, I don't think War Pass will come to the finish victoriously. In fact, there's a decent chance that he could be so well beaten that he's taken off the Debry Trail altogether.

A few of these horses could win, and I think the top three are Texaswildcatter, Roman Emperor, and Court Vision in that order. Odds permitting, I would also use Tale of Ekati and Giant Moon. At 15-1 on the morning line, I'm tempted to key Roman Emperor, but I'll be sure to have Texaswildcatter on a lot of tickets too.

War Pass is listed at 6/5. I doubt he goes off at that price, but if he winds up the favorite, I'll bet against him with both hands.

[samyn on the green]

The Wood Memoria (http://www.drf.com/row/pps/08AQUwoodmemorial.pdf)l (http://www.drf.com/row/pps/08AQUwoodmemorial.pdf) is a good betting race as the 6-5 chalk War Pass looks vulnerable. As a handicapper you have to find reasons to beat chalk and the massive clunker that War Pass ran last out is reason enough to toss him at 4-5. Court Vision looks like a viable candidate to power past late as he is 2nd off the layoff and is proven over the distance and surface. The rain has been much lighter than forecasted over the last 24 hours never increasing in intensity past light rain and it has been mostly mist. Light rain is forecasted to end at 10am with cloudy conditions all day. The track should be good to fast.

[Norm]

It's not raining now, and actually the forcast for tomorrow predicts some light rain in the morning and then a mostly cloudy remainder of the day. Still, we had a good bit of rain over the past 24 hours, and the track will probably be rated as good or muddy for the Wood.
Yes, with the revised forecast making it look like the track will not be sloppy, and with no racing on Friday to allow time to manicure the track, my greatest concern is that the track will come up 'good' which is not so good. The NYRA almost never uses the term 'slow' anymore, so a 'good' track can be anywhere from 'slow' to almost 'fast'. The slow end of 'good' at AQU can take ten points off the DRF raw speed rating of most horses and makes life a little harder on front runners. War Pass will have to be at his best to pull this off.

[NY BRED]

Weather has to be driving Rick Schossberg crazy, and it is conceivable
he could scratch GM with heavy rain..

Then again, NYRA tracks tend to be lucky when forecast is for bad weather..

[Norm]

As of 11:00 A.M., the NYRA website lists the track as 'Muddy'

[rokitman]

http://img.thesun.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00462/SNF0301HS1_280_462752a.jpg

[Norm]

Wow ! It's not that the race was bad . . . it's just that it was really bad. I was hoping War Pass might redeem himself. Hmm . . . now, it's not that he lost, that was a truly gutsy race, he fought back several times, it's not that his jockey allowed himself to be bullied by the rabbit - a first 1/4 in :22 2/5 was . . . what's the polite way of saying it . . . stupid !, but it was the final time of 1:52 1/5. That is not Grade I finishing time. And with War Pass tired, staggering, running pitifully slow at the end, Tale of Ekati couldn't get him 'til the last stride. I think, maybe, this years Derby winner will not be coming out of that race.

[rokitman]

Wow ! It's not that the race was bad . . . it's just that it was really bad. I was hoping War Pass might redeem himself. Hmm . . . now, it's not that he lost, that was a truly gutsy race, he fought back several times, it's not that his jockey allowed himself to be bullied by the rabbit - a first 1/4 in :22 2/5 was . . . what's the polite way of saying it . . . stupid !, but it was the final time of 1:52 1/5. That is not Grade I finishing time. And with War Pass tired, staggering, running pitifully slow at the end, Tale of Ekati couldn't get him 'til the last stride. I think, maybe, this years Derby winner will not be coming out of that race. Correct.

[ghostyapper]

Wow ! It's not that the race was bad . . . it's just that it was really bad. I was hoping War Pass might redeem himself. Hmm . . . now, it's not that he lost, that was a truly gutsy race, he fought back several times, it's not that his jockey allowed himself to be bullied by the rabbit - a first 1/4 in :22 2/5 was . . . what's the polite way of saying it . . . stupid !, but it was the final time of 1:52 1/5. That is not Grade I finishing time. And with War Pass tired, staggering, running pitifully slow at the end, Tale of Ekati couldn't get him 'til the last stride. I think, maybe, this years Derby winner will not be coming out of that race.

In fairness to both War Pass and Tale of ekati all of the stake race time's were slow. No it was not a superb race but I'm not throwing either out based on the clock.

[ryesteve]

In fairness to both War Pass and Tale of ekati all of the stake race time's were slow. No it was not a superb race but I'm not throwing either out based on the clock.
If the numbers are out yet, I haven't seen them, but based on how much slower this race was than the Excelsior and the numbers those horses usually run, the number for the Wood is going to come up pretty low compared to other recent preps.