PUBLIC ADJUST FOR THE WIN POOL AND EXACTA POOL TAKE-OUTS

[formula_2002]

IN A SAMPLE OF 6426 HORSES IN 795 RACES, THE WIN POOL FAVORITE PRODUCED THE SAME ROI IN BOTH THE EXACTA POOL AND WIN POOL, TO THE EXTENT THAT, THE ACTUAL WIN POOL WINNERS / BY THE EXPECTED WIN POOL WINNERS RETURNED A .89 ROI, WHILE A DUTCH “FAVORITE OVER ALL” EXACTA ALSO PRODUCED AN ACTUAL RETURN / THE EXPECTED RETURN ROI OF .89.
THE BETTING PUBLIC MADE THE ADJUSTMENT FOR THE TWO DIFFERENT POOL TAKE OUTS!!

BACKUP IS ATTACHED

[formula_2002]

FILE IS TOO LARGE

IF YOU WANT A COPY, JUST E-MAIL ME FOR IT

[ryesteve]

THE ACTUAL WIN POOL WINNERS / BY THE EXPECTED WIN POOL WINNERS RETURNED A .89 ROI, WHILE A DUTCH “FAVORITE OVER ALL” EXACTA ALSO PRODUCED AN ACTUAL RETURN / THE EXPECTED RETURN ROI OF .89.
Interesting observation, but here's the important takeaway: if you're good enough to substantially outperform the takeout on your win bets, you should also be good enough to not have to bet "all" on exactas... which means once you effectively eliminate underperforming horses from the 2nd slot, your ROI would be much better than what you got in the win slot.

[formula_2002]

Interesting observation, but here's the important takeaway: if you're good enough to substantially outperform the takeout on your win bets, you should also be good enough to not have to bet "all" on exactas... which means once you effectively eliminate underperforming horses from the 2nd slot, your ROI would be much better than what you got in the win slot.

What is really interesting about this game is, you don't know things like that until you test it with data, and then, if its true and profitable..dont believe it :)

[Robert Fischer]

EXACTA ALSO PRODUCED AN ACTUAL RETURN / THE EXPECTED RETURN ROI OF .89.

It sounds interesting.
Can you make the math a little bit clearer here? It looks like you are saying the ROI is the same .89, but like Ryesteve noted, if it were that easy any shmoe could eliminate the two longest shots and automatically get his ROI close to even.
If I read it literally it says "actual return divided by expected return ROI of .89" which seems like an incomplete equation as well.:confused:

[ryesteve]

any shmoe could eliminate the two longest shots and automatically get his ROI close to even.
... only if those two longest shots underperform relative to the potential returns of the exactas with them underneath. It's likely they do, but the extent of that underperformance and subsequent improvement to ROI isn't a given.

[formula_2002]

expected return is, A probability x (B probability/ (1- (A probability)
where probability = 1/(win odds+1)

the probability for any combination of favorite over the other horse is the dutch value of the bet.

then actual return = dutch value x .5 x exacta payout for a $2 exacta

example 1-1 fav with a 3-1, exacta probability is
.5 x (.25/.5)= .25 = dutch bet size
say the $2 exacta payout was $8.00
the actual return = .25 x .5 x$8.00 = 1

sum all the expected returns ( in the sample it amounted to 477)
sum all the actual returns ( in the sample it amounted to 425)

425/477 = .89 roi.

the sum of all fav probability (expected winners)in the win pool was 333.
actual winnesr was 297.

297/333 = .89 roi.

.5 an adjustment require for $2 playouts

[Imriledup]

Could you dumb this down for some of us :blush:

I'm guessing that you're saying that in a 10 horse field, an 18 dollar win bet on runner A will produce the same profit as a 2 dollar exacta A with all? Am i reading that right?

[Cangamble]

It is interesting in so much that takeouts are generally higher for exactor bets at most racetracks.
All things being equal, you would think that the ROI would be slightly less for exactors.

[ryesteve]

It is interesting in so much that takeouts are generally higher for exactor bets at most racetracks.
All things being equal, you would think that the ROI would be slightly less for exactors.
I think what's helping to balance it is that he's doing a dutch "all", which is putting more bankroll on better performing (ROI-wise) combinations.

[chickenhead]

I *think* that indicates the fav-longshot bias is even stronger in the exacta pool. I'd like to see the full break down.

[formula_2002]

I *think* that indicates the fav-longshot bias is even stronger in the exacta pool. I'd like to see the full break down.
the file is too large to upload to the site.
as I mentioned I'd be glad to e-mail it

[Robert Fischer]

formula_2002

Send me a copy please

bobbyfischer @ berlin . com (remove spaces)

[formula_2002]

Could you dumb this down for some of us :blush:

I'm guessing that you're saying that in a 10 horse field, an 18 dollar win bet on runner A will produce the same profit as a 2 dollar exacta A with all? Am i reading that right?
NO...you need to know the FINAL win pool odds on all 10 horses
then calculate the exacta probabilities for the favorite over each horse making a bet with respect to that probability.
If a combination had a 25% porbability you could bet $25 on that one exacta combination. If the exacta wins and pay $8 you are returned
$25x .5 x $8 =$100.

This is not about making money rather understanding how things work.
And then if needed, walk away..

[chickenhead]

what I'd really like is

(straight ROI or A/E, by odds rank)

1-2, 1-3, 1-4, etc
2-1, 2-3, 2-4. etc
etc

if anyone can do that for a signficant size sample....

[formula_2002]

formula_2002

Send me a copy please
on its way

[rokitman]

I don't think this has anything to do with the public adjusting anything. It boils down to the underlying math.

If there is an overlay in the win pool then there is one horse (in our example, anyway) that has too little money bet on it. It is actually going to win more than it is expected to by its win pool percentage. If that one is going to win more, than all the other horses have to win less, of course. If they win less, then they will be in second more. And more than they are expected by their exacta pool percentages. Their exacta pool percentages/prices will be a function of their underlayed win pool percentages, making your win pool overlay produce a double-dippin' delight :)

[singunner]

This is very interesting. So, essentially, without the benefit of a tote board (save the estimated exacta prices), the exacta pools appear to be mirroring win pools? My first question would be whether this works for the second favorite and so-forth?

[Cangamble]

If anyone is going to do a breakdown, how about this one:

The favourite on top with horses within 2 post positions of it either way if applicable.
Of course, this theory that it will come up with better results is based on possible outside inside bias and also pace during a race where sometimes inside horses hold on or outside horses pick up horses in the stretch.
Oh, and do the study for races between 5 and a half and 7 furlongs.

[PaceAdvantage]

the file is too large to upload to the site.
as I mentioned I'd be glad to e-mail itSend me a copy and I'll put it up on this thread. Just click on Contact Us at the bottom of this page....

[formula_2002]

Send me a copy and I'll put it up on this thread. Just click on Contact Us at the bottom of this page....
done.
all commnets welcomed.

[formula_2002]

I don't think this has anything to do with the public adjusting anything. It boils down to the underlying math.
If there is an overlay in the win pool then there is one horse (in our example, anyway) that has too little money bet on it. It is actually going to win more than it is expected to by its win pool percentage. If that one is going to win more, than all the other horses have to win less, of course. If they win less, then they will be in second more. And more than they are expected by their exacta pool percentages. Their exacta pool percentages/prices will be a function of their underlayed win pool percentages, making your win pool overlay produce a double-dippin' delight :)


for good or for bad, for understood or misunderstood, eventually, Its always about the math

[formula_2002]

just ran the program throught 4/2/2008 races

258 horses, 35 races

fav win pool roi .87

fav/all exacta pool roi .82

[classhandicapper]

I haven't looked at this kind of thing in decades, but about 20 years ago I used to walk around the track with a printout of horse odds, expected exacta payoff, break even exacta payoff, 20% profits etc.... Every once in awhile you could get better odds in the exacta by doing a dutch wheel, but the odds tended to move into sync very late in the betting. Sometimes they would actually overshoot after looking like an overlay. My feeling was that the exacta pool was a little more efficient because it was larger earlier in the betting.

Eventually, I stopped trying to exploit those occasional inefficiencies and narrowed my focus to the combinations I thought offered profits after a brief glance at the prices. It was too much work and a frantic process trying to calculate bet sizes while comparing late minute odds changes and then getting your bet in etc...

Since some people can do this kind of thing with a computer now, if anything I would guess that the pools are even more efficient now than they were a few decades ago when I was trying to take advantage manually.

[formula_2002]

About 25 years ago, I'd go to the track with a friend. and run back an forth from the win pool tote to the exacta payout boards..
We lost some weight and some money.

About 5 years ago I'd cut the exacta payouts form the bris online tote board and pasted them into an excel spread sheet that was set up to generate the overlays.
The closeer it got to post time, the fewer overlays.
I lost a few dollars.

Now I just post my picks on the PA site..
I've become a wealthy man!! :)

[formula_2002]

HERE IS A SMALLER FILE.
AQU FEB 2008 22 RACES.

WIN POOL A/E (ACTUAL WINS/EXPECTED WINS)ROI=ABOUT 1
EXACTA, FAVORITE/ALL, EXPECTED RETURN/ACTUAL RETURN = ABOUT 1


SO FOR THOSE RACES YOU COULD HAVE THROWN A DART TO PICK THE FAVORITES AND HAD A GOOD CHANCE TO BREAK EVEN.

BUT THE POINT HERE IS TO COMPARE THE FAV WIN POOL A/E TO ITS EXACTA EXPECTED RETURN/ACTUAL RETURN

TABLE HAS SUBTOTALS FOR EACH DAY. GRAND TOTALS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF FILE.

[formula_2002]

just to continue a bit.

In 494 "system" plays, the place pool roi was .93.
the favorite / system play, exacata had a .97 roi.

the win pool roi was 1.07
the system play /the favorite, exacta had a 1.02 roi.

the public is amazing!!
a 4 to 5 point spread on the same horses in different pools!!