Common handicapping factors

[headhawg]

Clearly there are differences in handicapping standardbreds and t-breds. However, after reading melman's recent post of Pandy's Grand Adventure article it mentioned in one part that some t-bred pace principles work as well or better for harness races.

I was wondering what other t-bred factors might be examined when doing some Dark Side 'capping. The obvious ones that come to mind are trips, class drops (although I find it very difficult to measure this considering all of the race conditions in harness), and driver/trainer changes. What else?

[melman]

Hawg---Third or fourth start back from a layoff of more than 90 days. A good "angle" for t-breds and I think an even better one for s-breds. :)

[Ray2000]

IMHO


Harness handicapping should be easier :) since:

Distance is not usually a factor in harness. (very few 5/8 mile or 1-1/16)
Likewise Driver weight is not a factor - unless > 155 lbs on a muddy or sloppy track.
Equipment changes are important (bridles, hopple length, etc but awfully hard to get info on.)

Otherwise:
The human factor, (trainer and driver) plays a bigger roll in harness than the flats and
early positions in the race effect harness more than flats, (closers hit more traffic, breakers in front etc)
The usual factors, horses' shape, class, and heart carry over from Thorobred to Standardbred

Good Luck with your 'capping and good luck on that pic6

:)

[headhawg]

Bump

There's got to be more similarities, doesn't there? Or have we cracked the code. ;)

[harcapper]

Hawg---Third or fourth start back from a layoff of more than 90 days. A good "angle" for t-breds and I think an even better one for s-breds. :)

As I have spent time both capping and training, I look for a more suttle layoff pattern then 90 days (let me explain).

As most of you already know, in harness racing the weekly condition sheet has the same races written every week. Some classes that carry a high volume of horses get written more often. That said, most fairly sound horses will race each week unless they did not get in due to the last date raced not clearing the entry box. In that case the horse will miss 1 week but race the following week or the next time that the condition is written (sometimes sooner then 2 weeks).

When the pattern is broken by say an 18 to 30 day layoff, there is usually another reason then a horse just not getting in. More then likely their was some type of treatment given to that horse. When a horse gets treated for either sickness or lameness it will normally miss some daily work/jog miles leaving the horse "short" off of the mini layoff.

It's that 2nd start off of the mini layoff that will net you some nice returns. You will especially want to look for a horse that has tailed off from some better past form before this mini layoff.

This is a great capping tool if you know how to spot it. You must however have the balls to fire money at a horse that does not look good on paper.

[LottaKash]

Again as with the flats, Trainer Intentiions on Race Day, have a lot to do with the outcomes in certain races and with certain trainers.....Knowing who they are is up to you.....

Trackmaster is now offering trainer, Driver and horse stats for Harness, and they are very revealing, when properly utilized....

Some of the stats are startling, and their ROI %'s are noted..

You would be surprised at what you can do with enough thought,,,,,, with these statistcs alone, the Sky is the Limit...

In my past, I would have drooled and paid dearly for this info, and now, you can have it for the price of a program.

Tho there are some categories that I wish were included, but you can't have it all, can you?.....sill the info that is there, is miles ahead of anything that lazy people like me could ever hope for.......

The Stats include Drivers (win,place% and Roi%, with all horses , for current meet, 30 days or 365 days, & all pacers, all trotters, 2yo, 3yo, males, females, detention barn, 1st off layoff, off tracks, favorites, longshots.....Basically the same for the Trainers and the HOrses and their respective ROI% for each category........Powerful Stuff, I think.........

Enjoy........:cool:

[LottaKash]

After my previous post, I sat and reflected on what I had said about Trainer intentions on raceday.......then I thought about some of the most infulential people, that I have read and have led me to my current outlook on Harness Racing........

Some or most of you know about the forthcoming people, that I will mention, but, for those who don't, I would like to share my recommendations for good teachers and writers in the Harness Racing Game.......

All of these people are "proven winners" and can show you their "winning Tickets", and I have the utmost admiration and respect for all of them.....

In no particular order of preference:

Bob "Pandy" Pandolfo
Al Stanley
Ron Roblin
Barry Meadow
Bob Perosino
Jack Rubin

If you can get any of their books (software) and read and take to heart what they are trying to say to you....you will be miles ahead of where you are now....and please, read between the lines.....

And, I feel no matter what station you are currently in, all of these guy have something more to teach you, unless you are doing what they are doing, making a living at it...And even then, if you are, you already know that there is always more to learn, always.........

One thing they all emphasize is, not so much about selections, but, how you will wager on them and proper money mangement techniques......Mark Cramer once said, something like, "picking the horse is only 30% of the equation the other 70% , is all about the money part" (not nearly an exact quote, but close enough to mention).....

Well, that's it for now......I've got a ton to say, later on sometime, I would like to share some of my Funny Stories and some of the Horror Stories, that I have experienced in my Betting Life.........Been at this since 1965.....what a ride.......

Humbly, jju

[harcapper]

Kash,

I think when you are all done looking at those trackmaster stats, it will pretty much all point to one stat in particular. That being the trainer stat.

Har

Trackmaster is now offering trainer, Driver and horse stats for Harness, and they are very revealing, when properly utilized....

Some of the stats are startling, and their ROI %'s are noted..

You would be surprised at what you can do with enough thought,,,,,, with these statistcs alone, the Sky is the Limit...

Powerful Stuff, I think.........

Enjoy........:cool:

[LottaKash]

Quite YES Mr. Harcapper......couldn't agree more on the trainer stats.....Highly Prized.........G.L.....:cool: