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GlenninOhio
04-02-2008, 06:11 AM
This is an excerpt from the Reader's Digest excerpt in their April 2008 issue (link below):

"As Barbaro galloped down the track alone, everything seemed to unfold in slow motion. I pulled hard on the reins. An outrider (a track official on a horse) came toward us, hoping to help me corral Barbaro so he could be reloaded for the race. We had traveled only 30 or 40 yards before Barbaro came to a halt, but it seemed to take forever. My heart hammered.

Horses that break through seldom run well once they're reloaded.

As I turned Barbaro around, I looked down. I was half hoping to see blood dripping from a cut on one of his forelegs, half hoping I would have to scratch him. The racing world would have been furious with me; how could I scratch a horse that looked like he could win the Triple Crown?

But I would have done it without hesitation. Barbaro had so much ahead of him. He could still make history. Why run him on a day when he didn't seem quite right?

"I was concerned about his welfare. But after I maneuvered him behind the starting gate and examined him, he seemed fine. There was no blood. He wasn't limping. His eyes were bright and alive.

Dr. David Zipf, the Pimlico veterinarian, carefully examined Barbaro.

"See anything, Doc?" I asked him.

"Nothing, Edgar. He looks fine," Dr. Zipf replied.

There was no time to communicate with Michael or the Jacksons. They were up in the stands -- terribly anxious, I was sure. The other Preakness horses were still in the starting gate, waiting to race.

I spoke to Barbaro. "Okay, boy, let's do it," I said, hoping to soothe him."

From "My Guy Barabaro" by Edgar Prado with John Eisenberg

http://www.rd.com/stories/heartwarming/remembering-barbaro-a-book-excerpt/article54916.html

bigmack
04-02-2008, 01:46 PM
When I loosened my hold on the reins, Barbaro looked around, as if to say, That's it? I have to stop? :ThmbUp:

JustRalph
04-02-2008, 04:00 PM
I read this in my monthly digest. I could only think......... why is Prado so late to this party? Everybody else has already capitalized........... I am a little Barbaro'ed out at this point.

lilmegahertz
04-02-2008, 10:36 PM
Oh God...Barbaro will always be a weak point for me....too many tears

Shenanigans
04-02-2008, 11:46 PM
Edgar Prado should have scratched Barbaro before he was even entered into the gate the first time.

Pace Cap'n
04-02-2008, 11:49 PM
A JOCKEY can scratch a horse?

And, why?

Shenanigans
04-02-2008, 11:53 PM
A JOCKEY can scratch a horse?

And, why?

If a jockey feels a horse is not feeling right i.e. lame, he can tell the track veternarian and almost always the vet leaves it up to the rider to make the final decision. The vet will watch the horse walk or trot, confer with the rider what is feeling wrong and a decision is made.

JustRalph
04-03-2008, 12:08 AM
Edgar Prado should have scratched Barbaro before he was even entered into the gate the first time.

after reading the excerpt from the book............. you may be on to something

He says the horse wasn't right from the time he saw him in the paddock. He also says that he was hoping to find a cut or something on the horse after he broke through the gate. He wanted an excuse to scratch

russowen77
04-03-2008, 01:10 AM
The jock should have been the first to know if the horse wasn't right. This is sickening.

EP calmed the horse into suicide. He should have been inspected by his vet, not whoever the track had out there. Sorry, but many of those jobs go to the cheapest bidder.

Yes a jock can scratch a horse. Pat Day did it here years ago agianst the advice of the vet at the time. Xrays proved Pat correct.

To think EP is profiting from being a gutless wonder makes me even more ill.

jognlope
04-03-2008, 09:51 AM
I remember being irritated at J. Bailey for saying Barbaro wasn't right, was pacing in his stall before the race. Well he probalby had something.

jognlope
04-03-2008, 09:52 AM
Wasn't it Bailey who wouldn't get back on a horse who tossed him right before race, that would be a jockey scratch.

46zilzal
04-03-2008, 10:14 AM
A JOCKEY can scratch a horse?

And, why?
Our vet was often called over when a rider noticed something amiss and they were often correct.

Pace Cap'n
04-03-2008, 07:51 PM
Our vet was often called over when a rider noticed something amiss and they were often correct.

Shenanigans stated EP should have scratched the horse before he entered the gate the first time. She did not say he should have consulted with the vet.

Thus my question: Can a jockey scratch a horse?

I have heard of them refusing to ride a horse, but they then found another rider.

Shenanigans
04-03-2008, 09:07 PM
Shenanigans stated EP should have scratched the horse before he entered the gate the first time. She did not say he should have consulted with the vet.

Thus my question: Can a jockey scratch a horse?

I have heard of them refusing to ride a horse, but they then found another rider.

Sorry I didn't make the statement easier to understand (in both posts). No, a jockey can not officially, by himself, scratch a horse. He/she can either consult with the track vet if they feel there is a problem with the horse. Like I stated, the vet examines the horse and confers with the rider. Yes, the rider has a lot of say of how the horse feels - they are the one on the horses back - and the vet usually listens to the jock. Sometimes the vet doesn't agree and the rider can refuse to ride but usually when you hear of a jockey refusing to ride, it's because the horse is a nut case and not so much that the horse is lame.

Marshall Bennett
04-03-2008, 11:17 PM
I can't imagine a jockey taking his horse out of such a race , with so much at stake , unless something was obviously wrong .

PaceAdvantage
04-04-2008, 01:39 AM
Edgar Prado should have scratched Barbaro before he was even entered into the gate the first time.Are you basing this on Prado's book (which I haven't read), or some other information? Please enlighten with a few details.

JustRalph
04-04-2008, 03:41 AM
http://www.rd.com/stories/heartwarming/remembering-barbaro-a-book-excerpt/article54916.html

~snip~
Before his other dirt races, Barbaro had been saddled on hard floors of concrete in fully or partially enclosed paddocks. Then he had gone out and run on a hard track. Now he was being saddled on the grass and, being a creature of habit, as horses are, may have thought he was about to run on grass, which excited him.

The longer he stood there, the more his muscles tensed and the harder he breathed. By the time I got on him, he was agitated, a little too eager. He even jumped a couple of times, which he'd never done with me before. I chalked it up to the wild scene around us. Rock music was blaring, people were screaming and the announcer was talking nonstop. None of that had bothered Barbaro before, but horses can be unpredictable.

I hoped the change in his behavior was just a minor pre-race glitch. But then we were loaded into the starting gate, and there was a bigger glitch -- a disaster.

Barbaro had gone easily into the No. 6 hole, the back gate clicking shut behind us. He waited calmly while the remaining horses were loaded. The last one to go in was Diabolical. The colt balked, so Pimlico's gate staff used an old trick. They opened his front starting gate to give him a more open space. Then, once he was in, they closed the front gate and then the gate behind him as well.

When Barbaro heard that second click, he suddenly kicked with his forelegs, opening his own front gate. And he began running down the track. The huge crowd gasped.

A false start in horse racing is a freak accident, a rare event. Of the thousands of horses I had ridden in my career, only a few had broken through early like this.
As Barbaro galloped down the track alone, everything seemed to unfold in slow motion. I pulled hard on the reins. An outrider (a track official on a horse) came toward us, hoping to help me corral Barbaro so he could be reloaded for the race. We had traveled only 30 or 40 yards before Barbaro came to a halt, but it seemed to take forever. My heart hammered.

Horses that break through seldom run well once they're reloaded.

As I turned Barbaro around, I looked down. I was half hoping to see blood dripping from a cut on one of his forelegs, half hoping I would have to scratch him. The racing world would have been furious with me; how could I scratch a horse that looked like he could win the Triple Crown?

But I would have done it without hesitation. Barbaro had so much ahead of him. He could still make history. Why run him on a day when he didn't seem quite right?

I was concerned about his welfare. But after I maneuvered him behind the starting gate and examined him, he seemed fine. There was no blood. He wasn't limping. His eyes were bright and alive.

Dr. David Zipf, the Pimlico veterinarian, carefully examined Barbaro.

"See anything, Doc?" I asked him.

"Nothing, Edgar. He looks fine," Dr. Zipf replied.

~more at the link~

Quesmark
04-04-2008, 05:56 AM
http://www.rd.com/stories/heartwarming/remembering-barbaro-a-book-excerpt/article54916.html

I was concerned about his welfare. But after I maneuvered him behind the starting gate and examined him, he seemed fine. There was no blood. He wasn't limping. His eyes were bright and alive.

Dr. David Zipf, the Pimlico veterinarian, carefully examined Barbaro.

"See anything, Doc?" I asked him.

"Nothing, Edgar. He looks fine," Dr. Zipf replied.

~more at the link~
These recollections sound like damage control ,and an attempt to change people's impressions of what happened.
After Barbaro broke through at the start he was reloaded almost instantly,Prado didn't jump off and examine him,and the Pimlico veterinarian certainly didn't "carefully" examine Barbaro either.
Interesting that in looking for a video of the 2006 Preakness the Barbaro breaking through the starting gate footage is now hard to find.Is is because having it available to see would conflict with the revisionist stories?
There was too much pressure to run Barbaro,and everyone involved made the expedient decision at the time to not look too closely,and take the risk that nothing bad would occur.

Shenanigans
04-04-2008, 09:12 AM
Are you basing this on Prado's book (which I haven't read), or some other information? Please enlighten with a few details.

As myself and a few friends from the racetrack were watching the Preakness on TV, during the post parade the cameras were on Prado a lot. In one of the shots, he was looking down over his right shoulder (towards Barbaros right hind leg) and instantaneously my friends and I all said the same thing: "What is he looking at?" Myself saying: "That doesn't look good."
Jocks very seldom look down at a horses leg unless they are feeling or hearing something. IMO, Prado felt or heard something. Anyone from the track that sees that shot will say the same thing.

PaceAdvantage
04-04-2008, 10:09 AM
As myself and a few friends from the racetrack were watching the Preakness on TV, during the post parade the cameras were on Prado a lot. In one of the shots, he was looking down over his right shoulder (towards Barbaros right hind leg) and instantaneously my friends and I all said the same thing: "What is he looking at?" Myself saying: "That doesn't look good."
Jocks very seldom look down at a horses leg unless they are feeling or hearing something. IMO, Prado felt or heard something. Anyone from the track that sees that shot will say the same thing.I see jocks looking down and behind them all the time. In fact, I saw one do it at Aqueduct just the other day.

PaceAdvantage
04-04-2008, 10:14 AM
Horses that break through seldom run well once they're reloaded.

As I turned Barbaro around, I looked down. I was half hoping to see blood dripping from a cut on one of his forelegs, half hoping I would have to scratch him. The racing world would have been furious with me; how could I scratch a horse that looked like he could win the Triple Crown?Yeah, but why didn't you bold the first line of your quote here? That first line led to the bold highlighted comments. The bolded comments aren't due to Prado suspecting Barbaro was mortally injured and would break down a few steps out of the gate. It's because he was under the impression that horses who break through the gate don't run well, so he was hoping he could find an excuse NOT to run.

If, as Shenanigans states, Edgar KNEW way BEFORE the gate incident that Barbaro wasn't "right," THEN HE HAD THE PERFECT EXCUSE to jump off him as they brought Barbaro back behind the gate to reload...he could have told the vet right there and then "something doesn't feel right."

Edgar would have been a HERO after they took Barbaro back to the barn and discovered the now non-fatal injury after x-rays. Instead, as we all know, NOTHING was wrong, and Barbaro took that ultimately fatal misstep.

Shenanigans
04-04-2008, 11:58 AM
The racing world would have been furious with me; how could I scratch a horse that looked like he could win the Triple Crown?

~


That is exactly why he did not scratch him.
I simply stated what I saw and what my opinion was of it. My experienced racetrack friends agree. You are in no way obliged to agree.

ny0707ny
04-04-2008, 12:05 PM
The only reason why he was not scratched is because of crowd pressure. Everyone would have had a fit. They couldn't do it. Any horse running through a gate should not race. It could mean nothing, but can also be a sign of something wrong.

JustRalph
04-04-2008, 02:04 PM
actually PA, it was early a.m. and I don't know why I didn't bold that part. I thought the part I did bold was the important part. I see your point though.

Btw, I don't fault Prado. I think he is doing what a lot of people do. He is looking back with 20/20 hindsight. You can't do it that way. The facts are never the same, and with other horses waiting in the gate.........no way he scratches without a Vet telling him he thinks something might be wrong.

In fact the next paragraph of the excerpt says this

"There was no time to communicate with Michael or the Jacksons. They were up in the stands -- terribly anxious, I was sure. The other Preakness horses were still in the starting gate, waiting to race."

What I find more interesting than the gate break is that Prado recognizes that the horse is "not right" in the paddock. It makes me wonder what else might have been wrong...........but then again...........we are all using hindsight that really isn't conclusive or available to Prado or anybody else during the few minutes prior to the fateful race. So in many ways we are being unfair to Prado and others. I think Prado should have passed on a book.

Shenanigans
04-04-2008, 09:17 PM
I am not faulting Prado either. Here's a guy in one of the most horrible situations. Had he scratched the horse even after the gate incident and they got him back to the barn and nothing was found wrong, he would have undoubtedly been fired off the mount and would have had the media and racing fans hound him for a long time. Personally, I feel sorry for the guy because he had a gut feeling something wasn't right but couldn't do anything about it.

GlenninOhio
04-05-2008, 10:14 AM
Personally, I feel sorry for the guy because he had a gut feeling something wasn't right but couldn't do anything about it.

Very well put.

He strikes me as a decent human being, and as such he is probably regularly tormented with regret for a decision made (or not made) under impossible circumstances.

richrosa
04-05-2008, 03:41 PM
I spoke with Prado this morning on a flight from Lexington to NYC. I mentioned the book and his face lit up. You could see it in his eyes the fact that he is a genuine human being who lived through an experience that he felt was important enough to tell others about.

I wasn't going to buy the book, but will now.

SeattleSlew@BP
04-06-2008, 04:16 AM
It's because he was under the impression that horses who break through the gate don't run well, so he was hoping he could find an excuse NOT to run.

Instead, as we all know, NOTHING was wrong, and Barbaro took that ultimately fatal misstep.

Breaking thru the gate can also be the horse saying something is not right -- unsoundness. It's one of the reasons they don't run well. While that doesn't mean with certainty something was wrong, I wouldn't be too confident wagering that it was simply a matter of coincidence.

Prado hoping to see a gash so they would scratch the horse simply because his chance to win the race had taken a hit is a giant stretch for me. He either feels the need to explain himself for no particular reason, or he had indeed felt something wasn't right with the horse.

Murph
04-06-2008, 06:05 AM
I spoke with Prado this morning on a flight from Lexington to NYC. I mentioned the book and his face lit up. You could see it in his eyes the fact that he is a genuine human being who lived through an experience that he felt was important enough to tell others about.

I wasn't going to buy the book, but will now.What has changed that would make you want to buy the book now? If you don't support the Barbaro story, how does speaking with Edgar Prado change your mind?

richrosa
04-06-2008, 08:38 AM
What has changed that would make you want to buy the book now? If you don't support the Barbaro story, how does speaking with Edgar Prado change your mind?

The look on his face and the way he talked about it, albeit brief indicated that his feelings for the story were genuine. I now assume that I'll pick up something from the story that I didn't know before.

Edgar Prado isn't like many other jockeys. He has a personality about him that suggests humility while being very successful at what he does. I imagine that this will shine through in the book which is different than many athlete books where the story is just about them.

Pace Cap'n
04-06-2008, 09:22 AM
Anyone who witnessed Prado's reactions after the catastrophic breakdown of Landseer in the 2002 Breeders Cup would be left with no doubt as to the extent of his compassion for his mounts.

JustRalph
04-06-2008, 12:13 PM
Hey Rich, don't forget...........Prado didn't write this book............ I am pretty sure of that..........???? I am sure this is a case of dictation. And if not, then heavy edit. I don't think that changes the subject matter that much, but if you are looking for the actual writing style to communicate something........... I don't think it will be Prado's style you are reading. I don't mean that in a bad way. I like the guy. But he doesn't grasp the language well enough to write this book. He got some help I am sure.

Murph
04-06-2008, 03:12 PM
The look on his face and the way he talked about it, albeit brief indicated that his feelings for the story were genuine. I now assume that I'll pick up something from the story that I didn't know before.

Edgar Prado isn't like many other jockeys. He has a personality about him that suggests humility while being very successful at what he does. I imagine that this will shine through in the book which is different than many athlete books where the story is just about them.I'd like to meet him sometime, thanks rich.

jognlope
04-06-2008, 03:47 PM
The Baltimore paper sports writer I think ghost wrote it. Too lazy to look up name.

Kelso
04-07-2008, 12:06 AM
The look on his face and the way he talked about it, albeit brief indicated that his feelings for the story were genuine.


I was convinced of that as I watched him sitting against the fence, sobbing heavily. I think that picture will stay with me for a long time.

PaceAdvantage
04-07-2008, 03:28 AM
Let me get something straight that I am a bit confused/shocked by....

Those that read the book (I haven't read it)....Prado actually claims that Barbaro was "not right" in the Paddock? He uses these exact words?

JustRalph
04-07-2008, 03:39 AM
Let me get something straight that I am a bit confused/shocked by....

Those that read the book (I haven't read it)....Prado actually claims that Barbaro was "not right" in the Paddock? He uses these exact words?



~snip~
Before his other dirt races, Barbaro had been saddled on hard floors of concrete in fully or partially enclosed paddocks. Then he had gone out and run on a hard track. Now he was being saddled on the grass and, being a creature of habit, as horses are, may have thought he was about to run on grass, which excited him.

The longer he stood there, the more his muscles tensed and the harder he breathed. By the time I got on him, he was agitated, a little too eager. He even jumped a couple of times, which he'd never done with me before.
I chalked it up to the wild scene around us. Rock music was blaring, people were screaming and the announcer was talking nonstop. None of that had bothered Barbaro before, but horses can be unpredictable.

I hoped the change in his behavior was just a minor pre-race glitch. But then we were loaded into the starting gate, and there was a bigger glitch -- a disaster.

~snip~

I don't see those exact words. But, I think a fair paraphrase of what he says?

You gotta imagine this was one bad situation to be in. He says he hoped for a reason to scratch at the gate........... that says volumes if you ask me. But what if he had tried? Can you imagine the stink that would have put up?

PaceAdvantage
04-07-2008, 03:43 AM
OK Ralph, that's what I thought. He doesn't come out and explicitly state Barbaro "wasn't right," and by "not right" I mean sick or hurt.

If we scratched every horse that got agitated in the paddock during one of the Triple Crown races....well....you know the rest....

As you say, this is all 20/20 hindsight. If Barbaro doesn't break down, all of this stuff is forgotten, as it usually is every single day at every racetrack in America, where horses ROUTINELY break through the gate and race without breaking down.

SeattleSlew@BP
04-07-2008, 02:51 PM
as it usually is every single day at every racetrack in America, where horses ROUTINELY break through the gate and race without breaking down.
If breaking through the gate is simply routine and random, why are the win percentages of those who do it so low? While it CAN be benign, the horse is often being bothered by something. I can't say with 100% certainty that was the case with Barbaro, just as I can't say with 100% certainty the man clutching his chest is going to fall down with a heart attack 2 minutes from now. I just know he probably shouldn't go run a marathon anytime soon. And MIGHT make the correlation between the two if he was to drop to the pavement.

ryesteve
04-07-2008, 03:26 PM
If breaking through the gate is simply routine and random, why are the win percentages of those who do it so low? While it CAN be benign, the horse is often being bothered by something.
Why the assumption that the horse is being bothered? Couldn't you just as easily assume that the horse is just very eager to run, which would normally be a good thing?

SeattleSlew@BP
04-07-2008, 03:46 PM
Why the assumption that the horse is being bothered? Couldn't you just as easily assume that the horse is just very eager to run, which would normally be a good thing?

Why is it just as easy to make that assumption? Based on the win percentage of horses who break thru the gate, it's a BAD thing. And rarely because they exerted slightly more energy breaking 10 feet early.

Barbaro after breaking thru in my estimation did not look like an animal that wanted to run. After he did I was trying my hardest to call in tri and super boxes tossing him. And this was my reaction BEFORE he broke down.

lilmegahertz
04-07-2008, 05:09 PM
Anyone who witnessed Prado's reactions after the catastrophic breakdown of Landseer in the 2002 Breeders Cup would be left with no doubt as to the extent of his compassion for his mounts.

Very true. When reporters thrust microphones in his face to try to talk to him that day in 2002, I thought he had the look of a man about to cry and I will never forget how he said " I just feel so bad for the horse." It showed he really did care about the animal. And the agony on his face after Barbaro's breakdown will live in my mind forever.

PaceAdvantage
04-07-2008, 06:28 PM
If breaking through the gate is simply routine and random, why are the win percentages of those who do it so low? While it CAN be benign, the horse is often being bothered by something. I can't say with 100% certainty that was the case with Barbaro, just as I can't say with 100% certainty the man clutching his chest is going to fall down with a heart attack 2 minutes from now. I just know he probably shouldn't go run a marathon anytime soon. And MIGHT make the correlation between the two if he was to drop to the pavement.I just saw a horse break through the gate, dump the jock, get led back around the gate, reloaded (the 5th at Bay Meadows just now)....

Result? He broke well, dueled for the lead, and drew off to win as 4-1 third choice...

What exactly are the stats for horses that break through the gate prematurely and then have to be reloaded? Some folks on here talk of these stats as if they are common knowledge. Where would one obtain such stats? I assume the database guys can run a search on the comments field....

NYPlayer
04-07-2008, 08:10 PM
Breaking thru the gate can also be the horse saying something is not right -- unsoundness. It's one of the reasons they don't run well. While that doesn't mean with certainty something was wrong, I wouldn't be too confident wagering that it was simply a matter of coincidence.

Prado hoping to see a gash so they would scratch the horse simply because his chance to win the race had taken a hit is a giant stretch for me. He either feels the need to explain himself for no particular reason, or he had indeed felt something wasn't right with the horse.

Prado is blameless. I think what happened after Barbaro burst the gate was that the Vet took a quick look at the horse and then signaled the okay. Whatever was wrong with Barbaro was simply not readily apparent in that moment. I think breaking through the gate is a sign that the horse is nervous. For most, it could be attributable to inexperience, but if a horse isn't right physically that might also make it nervous, sensing that it's about to strenously exert itself.

Prado's perspective is unique in that he was merely an observer, just as the millions of fans that were watching that day. Unlike the rest of us, however, he had a first hand view and feel of the horse. From the excerpts of the book (I haven't read it yet), he describes the pre-race antics of the horse. He noticed something wasn't quite the same. In doing so, he is essentially operating under the assumption that something was definitely amiss physically - even if he doesn't say that explicitly. I find that intriguing.

And if something was amiss, then who might have (or should have) known? Who has intimate contact with the horse, watches him closely and vouches for the horse's condition when it's entered in a race? Blame them.

America will not forget Barbaro. On April 30, three days before the Kentucky Derby, a sculpture will be unveiled in Central Park. It depicts Barbaro on the ground painfully and silently suffering, forever conjuring the memory of that fateful day.

SeattleSlew@BP
04-07-2008, 08:11 PM
I just saw a horse break through the gate, dump the jock, get led back around the gate, reloaded (the 5th at Bay Meadows just now)....

Result? He broke well, dueled for the lead, and drew off to win as 4-1 third choice...

What exactly are the stats for horses that break through the gate prematurely and then have to be reloaded? Some folks on here talk of these stats as if they are common knowledge. Where would one obtain such stats? I assume the database guys can run a search on the comments field....

I don't use a database on horses breaking through the gate. But I know after seeing thousands of examples the winning percentage isn't very high. Prado probably doesn't database it either, but he was so worried about Barbaro breaking thru the gate he was "half-hoping to scratch".

SeattleSlew@BP
04-07-2008, 08:13 PM
Prado is blameless. I think what happened after Barbaro burst the gate was that the Vet took a quick look at the horse and then signaled the okay. Whatever was wrong with Barbaro was simply not readily apparent in that moment. I think breaking through the gate is a sign that the horse is nervous. For most, it could be attributable to inexperience, but if a horse isn't right physically that might also make it nervous, sensing that it's about to strenously exert itself.

Prado's perspective is unique in that he was merely an observer, just as the millions of fans that were watching that day. Unlike the rest of us, however, he had a first hand view and feel of the horse. From the excerpts of the book (I haven't read it yet), he describes the pre-race antics of the horse. He noticed something wasn't quite the same. In doing so, he is essentially operating under the assumption that something was definitely amiss physically - even if he doesn't say that explicitly. I find that intriguing.

And if something was amiss, then who might have (or should have) known? Who has intimate contact with the horse, watches him closely and vouches for the horses condition when it's entered in a race? Blame them.

America will not forget Barbaro. On April 30, three days before the Kentucky Derby, a sculpture will be unveiled in Central Park. It depicts Barbaro on the ground painfully and silently suffering, forever conjuring the memory of that fateful day.

I never blamed Prado. Pressure to run is enormous.

NYPlayer
04-07-2008, 08:24 PM
I never blamed Prado. Pressure to run is enormous.

I know. I quoted you because I thought it would help illustrate. I apologize if you were offended.

SeattleSlew@BP
04-07-2008, 08:28 PM
I know. I quoted you because I thought it would help illustrate. I apologize if you were offended.

Not offended at all. I thought maybe I came across that way.

Murph
04-08-2008, 06:25 AM
I just saw a horse break through the gate, dump the jock, get led back around the gate, reloaded (the 5th at Bay Meadows just now)....

Result? He broke well, dueled for the lead, and drew off to win as 4-1 third choice...

What exactly are the stats for horses that break through the gate prematurely and then have to be reloaded? Some folks on here talk of these stats as if they are common knowledge. Where would one obtain such stats? I assume the database guys can run a search on the comments field....Was that the #2 that ran loose on the track before the race? I didn't see the running.

I would suppose win stats on gatebreakers would be similar to the win% for a random number generated for each race card. One card - one number = similar win stats, maybe?

ryesteve
04-08-2008, 06:41 AM
But I know after seeing thousands of examples the winning percentage isn't very high.
Anecdotal observations is a poor substitute for actual data.

Murph
04-08-2008, 07:11 AM
Anecdotal observations is a poor substitute for actual data.Would my above random consideration be a good baseline for a comparison, ryesteve? It will likely involve more runners than actually break thru the gate, using one random per card. That could be adjusted to empirical data on gatebreakers to compare sets though.

ryesteve
04-08-2008, 08:46 AM
Would my above random consideration be a good baseline for a comparison, ryesteve? It will likely involve more runners than actually break thru the gate, using one random per card. That could be adjusted to empirical data on gatebreakers to compare sets though.
The only reason to use random sampling is when it's too expensive or impractical to gather more extensive data. When it comes to analyzing horse data, you wouldn't have to cut corners... you could compare the stats of gatebreakers vs. all non-gatebreakers and see how they compare.

Shenanigans
04-08-2008, 09:01 AM
http://www.rd.com/stories/heartwarming/remembering-barbaro-a-book-excerpt/article54916.html

~snip~

A false start in horse racing is a freak accident, a rare event. Of the thousands of horses I had ridden in my career, only a few had broken through early like this.
As Barbaro galloped down the track alone, everything seemed to unfold in slow motion. I pulled hard on the reins. An outrider (a track official on a horse) came toward us, hoping to help me corral Barbaro so he could be reloaded for the race. We had traveled only 30 or 40 yards before Barbaro came to a halt, but it seemed to take forever. My heart hammered.

Horses that break through seldom run well once they're reloaded.


~more at the link~


I would think the stats would hold up with a jockeys experience of horses breaking through the gate.
I seem to remember the commentators during that race even remarking about the low percentage of horses not running well. You have to take into consideration that when a horse does that, it's like running into a wall that barely gives. Those gates do not come open that easily. I don't think I would expect too many horses to run well after slamming into a wall.

SeattleSlew@BP
04-08-2008, 12:31 PM
Anecdotal observations is a poor substitute for actual data.

Tell it to Prado. He didn't have a database to refer to either when he made the same comment. Must mean he's wrong.

ryesteve
04-08-2008, 01:16 PM
Tell it to Prado. He didn't have a database to refer to either when he made the same comment. Must mean he's wrong.
Don't be a wiseass. Obviously someone on a horse's back is in a pretty good position to assess THAT horse... which has absolutely nothing to do with making blanket generalizations based on what you can remember.

menifee
04-08-2008, 01:47 PM
I cancelled a $10 tri box bet after seeing one of the horses break through the gate. The horse that broke through the gate won the race and my cancelled tri ticket paid 4K as a result.

I will never cancel another ticket again.

I don't think anyone has ever compiled stats on horses that break through the gates so I am not sure they lose at a greater clip.

SeattleSlew@BP
04-08-2008, 02:37 PM
Don't be a wiseass. Obviously someone on a horse's back is in a pretty good position to assess THAT horse... which has absolutely nothing to do with making blanket generalizations based on what you can remember.

Horses that break through seldom run well once they're reloaded.

What hard stat did Prado use to make that comment?

ryesteve
04-08-2008, 03:01 PM
How do we even know Prado actually said that? Given how books like these are written, it's far more likely that it was his ghost writer Eisenberg engaging in the same kind of horseplayer generalization I'm seeing here.

And before we stray TOO far, I'm NOT saying that horses that break through the gate DON'T underperform; I'm just saying I want to base it off actual data, not anyone's mental tabulations based on what they think they remember.

SeattleSlew@BP
04-08-2008, 04:06 PM
How do we even know Prado actually said that? Given how books like these are written, it's far more likely that it was his ghost writer Eisenberg engaging in the same kind of horseplayer generalization I'm seeing here.

And before we stray TOO far, I'm NOT saying that horses that break through the gate DON'T underperform; I'm just saying I want to base it off actual data, not anyone's mental tabulations based on what they think they remember.

You think it would be convenient for you if he didn't say it. After all, how could anyone as successful as Prado make such an assertion based on "what he thinks he remembers" without exact data? Based solely on straight memory and empirical data!

ryesteve
04-08-2008, 04:24 PM
You think it would be convenient for you if he didn't say it.
Makes no difference to me who said it. I'm just giving him more credit than that because EVERY book that is written by "<insert famous person here> and <insert ghost writer here>" consists of 90-95% words that come out of the head of the ghost writer.

SeattleSlew@BP
04-08-2008, 04:33 PM
He probably didn't say it. Everybody knows jocks go by hard statistical data before making a decision and he probably would have referred to the jockey database, located in the jock's room between the tub and the hot box, before making such a baseless comment.

ryesteve
04-08-2008, 04:53 PM
Everybody knows jocks go by hard statistical data before making a decision and he probably would have referred to the jockey database, located in the jock's room between the tub and the hot box
Actually, they keep it right next to the word processor that they use to write books in between mounts :rolleyes:

SeattleSlew@BP
04-08-2008, 05:31 PM
If only the jocks were allowed to carry spreadsheets along on their mounts. They would win every race.

Hey I'm going to the high limit room tonight. You think they'll mind if I drag along a T1 server full of hand histories to refer to before making any kind of decision? Their "memory" and anecdotal observations vs. my statistical data........I'm going to own them.

ryesteve
04-08-2008, 07:24 PM
Hey I'm going to the high limit room tonight. You think they'll mind if I drag along a T1 server full of hand histories to refer to before making any kind of decision? Their "memory" and anecdotal observations vs. my statistical data........I'm going to own them.
Don't be silly... everybody knows all of the best poker players completely ignore the percentages, and only go all in when they draw their lucky pocket combo.

By the way, for someone with 35 posts in 5 years, you've sure woken up and had a shitload to say today. So which screename are you better known as, so I know who to put on ignore?

SeattleSlew@BP
04-08-2008, 08:12 PM
Don't be silly... everybody knows all of the best poker players completely ignore the percentages, and only go all in when they draw their lucky pocket combo.

By the way, for someone with 35 posts in 5 years, you've sure woken up and had a shitload to say today. So which screename are you better known as, so I know who to put on ignore?


Sorry I don't have the time to post everyday in make believe contests. Why would I care if you ignored me?

ryesteve
04-08-2008, 09:35 PM
Why would I care if you ignored me?I didn't ask you to care, I asked you what your normal screen name is. Maybe PA can do an IP check and PM me with the answer.

SeattleSlew@BP
04-08-2008, 10:07 PM
I usually post as someone entirely different, but today wanted to log in from a screen name I had saving for five years so I could talk anonymously about Barbaro breaking thru the starting gate. Do you do your detective work from a database too?

ryesteve
04-08-2008, 11:09 PM
I usually post as someone entirely different, but today wanted to log in from a screen name I had saving for five years so I could talk anonymously about Barbaro breaking thru the starting gate.
Well, it's either that, or you're the Halley's Comet of posters... once every few years you show up and leave a spectacular spew in your wake. See you again in 2012...

JustRalph
04-09-2008, 12:27 AM
Well, it's either that, or you're the Halley's Comet of posters... once every few years you show up and leave a spectacular spew in your wake. See you again in 2012...

:lol: :lol:

PaceAdvantage
04-09-2008, 02:14 AM
Don't be silly... everybody knows all of the best poker players completely ignore the percentages, and only go all in when they draw their lucky pocket combo.Excellent reply, and one that I'm not surprised went ignored....

SeattleSlew@BP
04-09-2008, 05:29 AM
Excellent reply, and one that I'm not surprised went ignored....

Poker players use a GREAT deal of memory and empirical data to make qualified decisions. It's more than straight percentages. Most of my income is in poker. If I relied totally on the math I would be working a 9-5 and playing in make believe contests like steve years ago.

SeattleSlew@BP
04-09-2008, 05:31 AM
Well, it's either that, or you're the Halley's Comet of posters... once every few years you show up and leave a spectacular spew in your wake. See you again in 2012...

Halley's Comet is worshiped in some circles.

PaceAdvantage
04-11-2008, 10:04 AM
Poker players use a GREAT deal of memory and empirical data to make qualified decisions. It's more than straight percentages.Yes, of course. But you can't deny that knowing and playing the odds in a given situation is also highly beneficial to the bottom line....

joanied
04-11-2008, 08:44 PM
I read that excerpt also, and thought to myself, why is Prado saying this?
It's all water under the bridge, nothing will bring that incredible horse back....but I am sick that Prado said what he did...
If you recall, once they got Barbaro back behind the gate, they loaded him and opened the gates so damned fast, there was no time TO think... I beleive all the vet did behind the gate was to look for any cuts...the break came way too fast.
And IF the horse didn't feel right before they even left the paddock (I seem to recall Bailey saying something about it) EP should have consulted with Matz...I would bet Matz would have scratched if he thought something wrong...
the pressure of that race, with the TC on the line just blew everyone's good common sense right out the window....turns my tummy:(
In another tragic race, it too should never have been run....everyone was shocked about Ruffian breaking down...I was working at Belmont at the time, and everyone knew there was 'something' not right with her before that horrible day... in her morning gallops she was lugging out...she'd already had an injury as a 2 year old, and both her parents broke a leg...should never have run that stupid match race...but the pressure was on, just like with Barbaro's Preakness.
It sucks!!!

joanied
04-11-2008, 09:01 PM
America will not forget Barbaro. On April 30, three days before the Kentucky Derby, a sculpture will be unveiled in Central Park. It depicts Barbaro on the ground painfully and silently suffering, forever conjuring the memory of that fateful day.

ohgeeze....please tell me they aren't really going:eek: to put up that so called statue?? I read about it several months ago, and also read that some people were going to try and put a stop to it... this news makes me sick...shame on NYC for allowing it to happen...and it's not really even about Barbaro...it's about the carriage horse that died.
geeze!!

NYPlayer
04-11-2008, 11:17 PM
ohgeeze....please tell me they aren't really going:eek: to put up that so called statue?? I read about it several months ago, and also read that some people were going to try and put a stop to it... this news makes me sick...shame on NYC for allowing it to happen...and it's not really even about Barbaro...it's about the carriage horse that died.
geeze!!

Sure looks like it -

Leo Kesting Gallery- 812 Washington St NY NY 10014
Presents: Daniel Edwards: The Barbaro Memorial for the Right to Die
May 2 – May 14, 2008
PRESS UNVEILING OF: “The Barbaro Memorial for the Right to Die”:
Wednesday, April 30th, 11:00 am, at Central Park South on 59th St. at 6th Ave

SeattleSlew@BP
04-11-2008, 11:35 PM
Yes, of course. But you can't deny that knowing and playing the odds in a given situation is also highly beneficial to the bottom line....

AA vs. KK, AK vs. QQ, what are my odds of making the heart flush with X amount of hearts in the deck, what is the correct call based on the pot....

This is exact math that is constant.

Even if I took the time to chart the win/ITM% on all horses crashing thru the gate. Then the 100s of subsets that I feel could be even more important.....What is the win/ITM% on a horse crashing thru the gate from XYZ barn? What is the win/ITM% of a first time starter crashing thru the gate? I feel that is a ton of time spent in a very minor area, that even if correctly quantified, would make little to no difference in what I find in pure observation of the horse and instinct into putting it into action. Unless someone shows me a mind-blowing stat about those kinds of horses, which can remain as constant and as basic as the poker math, then I will continue on the assumption I have the best of it building tickets absent of the 3/5 shot that just crashed thru the gate. And don't even have to be right that often, just enough to feel it's an edge.

Kelso
04-11-2008, 11:44 PM
I don't recall Barbaro ever going to ground. Prado pulled him up and dismounted. Do I have that wrong?

ryesteve
04-12-2008, 12:31 AM
I feel that is a ton of time spent in a very minor area, that even if correctly quantified, would make little to no difference in what I find in pure observation of the horse and instinct into putting it into action.
If this was your original premise, I don't think you would've found any dissent. Who would say you shouldn't allow your physical impression of a horse to enter into your bet decision?

The issues were that you said horses break through the gate because there is ALREADY something bothering them; and your support for that argument was that they win at a low rate... according to your mental tabulations. No, you don't need stats to tell you how to bet, but you do need stats to properly support a supposed statement of fact... which, even if it were true, isn't even relevant to your argument, because you're turning the causality inside-out. If these horses do win at a lower rate, it makes far more sense to assume that they run poorly because they broke through the gate, not that they broke through the gate because they were about to run poorly.

SeattleSlew@BP
04-12-2008, 12:46 AM
My original post offered my theory on horses breaking thru the gate. I believe in many cases there are pre-existing issues that are bothering the horse. I can't prove that with a database of stats, anymore than I can mathematically prove that drunk obnoxious next to me is going to make a bad call. Its just based on observation and instinct. Not always the case, and in the modern age of juice mmattering less, but often enough for me to attack against them all as whole.