jonnielu
04-01-2008, 10:38 PM
What the hell is Ability-X?
I've got a couple of example races from yesterday 3/30 at GP and I'd like to go over them for those that have asked for more detail on how I analyze the chart and how the numbers of the ratings work. I've also recently added a composite number to the chart that I am observing to see if it is helpful in comparing one to the other. Mostly to see if it makes comparison easier for someone that may not be familiar or aware of the subtleties of the home track.
Since I understand the numbers well, I can make an accurate determination pretty quickly on whether a particular track is generally fast, or generally slow. I think of fast as less tiring, and slow as more tiring. For myself, I only need the generalities, and they show quickly in the ratings. At that point I take them into consideration without any thought about variance, or bias.
I understand that my opinions about speed ratings, variants, biases, and the like are considered heresy in many camps, but I never signed on with those concepts in the first place because I feel that I have always had a reasonably correct understanding of time as it applies to a horse race and it appears that my understanding continues to be backed up by results after30 years of observation. So, I am a little partial to my take on it, and my viewpoint is what underlies these ratings.
Having said that, I will also say that in the past couple of years, I have had to give up a few beliefs myself, some of them I had hung my hat on for quite awhile, but, it is hard to hang on to something that does not consistently show up in the results. But, when you learn something that is actually valid, trading in the old stuff that always was a little flaky can be a good deal. Especially when you can show yourself how flaky it really was on a daily basis.
So let's take a look at:
3/30 GP - 3rd- 8fTurf
I'm actually starting to get attached to everything I need being in this little box, I like to highlight the top four ML in different shades of blue because of one thing I still hang my hat on after all of these years is that one of these four will win this race 70% of the time. One old consistency that Ability-X backs up. The favorite is the most consistent of the bench so that horse ( in navy blue ) becomes my key for analyzing the ratings. This race is 8f on the grass, and grass racing generally calls for differing talent as compared to dirt. The ratings themselves tell me this and anyone can learn these truths by studying the ratings and comparing to results. Many players don't get grass and I used to be one of them, but Ability-X repeated showed mw what the winners on grass have in common, and what they have better then their dirt loving cousins. An even run that is slow early. This is not my opinion, it is how horseracing is. You will see it in an Ability-X chart, it will be backed up result after result.
So, what do I mean by an even run that is slow early and how is it displayed by Ability-X numbers -
113 7 84 3 197
For this race, #7 is our favorite, and it seems deserved because we can see that #7 has an early speed number of 84, and no speed guy would hesitate to call it slow. It may take a couple of weeks for Ability-X to teach you a great deal about the way horses run on various surfaces, but once it has, you will realize that 85 is a very suitable # to use as a general early speed par to see where any particular horse stands in basic grass talent. This is a median, what you have at various distances will demonstrate to you that 5f grass will be similar to it's dirt counterpart with a demand for speed, 8f can have a speed component and if most entrants are well above this par, you will know that early speed will play a larger role in the outcome of that race. But, starting with 8.5f and longer 85 and slower will be the winners early speed mark most of the time. Our boy here, #7 is at 84, very suitable for 8fTurf. This is something that I now know, because Ability-X taught it to me, with indisputable results.
The other component for consideration here is the rating # of the run, for our #7 here it is 113, is it good or bad? Generally, lower is better, but it has to be considered with regard to early speed, what we want to know from it I will describe as balance. It is more "the run" then what it's component early speed is. But, early speed is a component of it that has a distinct effect on it. The effect is horse racing 101, it is true, unchanging, measurable, indicative, and predictive. The effect of early speed is:
The faster a horse runs early, the slower it will run late. The slower a horse runs early, the more evenly it will run the particular distance.
Nothing new, not very complicated, but very consistent. Because it will show up in every race.
So, now as the favorite here #7 is considered for merit in this upcoming race, the question is, "what does the 113/84 rating signify?" I like to throw it up against a general par that I got from results. It seems that for 8f and longer races on grass, the entire group of horses that covered the board will have run around the rating of 100/85, or an equivalent combination.
What is an equivalent combination? Generally 1 point higher early will add 20 points to the "run" figure, 120/86 could be considered equivalent as it is also well balanced, as could 140/87, or 80/84. With this general reality in mind, #7 and the 113/84 registered in the last race can be taken for now to be pretty well balanced in comparison to the other horses entered here.
One other consideration that will be made before starting to compare is the question of likely condition today. In the case of everyday classes, this is a consideration that is difficult to make within the format of "form" because you have been taught to recognize "up close" in a running line as equaling "good condition" today, and "in the back" as equaling "less condition today". This is generally a fallacy of conventional thought that suggests that the only way to get a race horse in good racing condition is to get him out on the track and run his ass off until he comes back with a win or "up close" performance so that we can see that he is getting into "good condition."
Think about it for a few minutes, how sharp are you right after an 84 hour work week, where you won or finished "up close".
In the case of an everyday class race horse that is favored today, it is generally more likely that he will run today as well as you do the Monday morning after an 84 hour work week where you earned the biggest bonus of the quarter. That is the generality, clues to the specifics will be found in how the last race was run. You already know that his "form" looks good, because he is favored. Your question for the last run is since it brought this favored status, did it take some condition out of the horse? If the race of his life got him here, it is not likely that he will do it again today.
The thing to always keep in mind on the issue of physical condition today is that the last race, and form in general are very limited as an actual hard indicator, if you are restricted to this input only, you will have to develop a good feel through experience. The price of which can vary widely. If the last race and form are the only thing that you can work with, you will need to develop a sense for how trainers operate in general and you will need to know the habits of specific trainers. Along with developing a sense for how hard or easy that last race was. Once you gain experience with Ability-X ratings, this is easier to do then it is with "form", because you are looking at measurements of the "run" and making a general comparison with what is generally winners par.
I can guide you in an approach to developing this skill, but to a larger extent you will have to learn it by watching, thinking, comparing, and checking. The better that you can do these things, the faster you will learn and the sooner horse racing will make sense to you rather then leave you dazed and confused all of the time.
As you do this, keep in mind that there is something in every race that the trainer bases his next decisions on. If that trainer knows one end of the horse from the other, it is something consistent and reliable that brings him/her success or failure depending on his/her skills at deciphering what it truly means. It can only be his/her horse's known ability expressed in its run. It is the same thing that a handicapper attempts to quantify from restricted viewpoint of "form".
To the horseplayer, the real value of Ability-X ratings is that it brings you much closer to the viewpoint of the trainer, and can totally remove you from the limited viewpoint of the public, or the wagering competition. If you are able to look at, consider, and quantify ability without the mask of "form" which can be applied quite easily, you gain a powerful and consistent edge. I'm sure that I could add 27 paragraphs right here to expand on this concept, but, I am attempting to keep this short.
#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp
259 11 100 20 359
160 10 89 10 249
106 4 88 20 194
142 5 87 12 229
159 3 86 20 245
113 7 84 3 197
That brings us back to consideration of our favorite here, #7, was the last race a tough hard fought effort?Probably not, 84 is not ligament stretching speed, and 113 is just a shade above par for a nice steady run. I like the idea that maybe the horse was alert and working at the finish, the 113 suggests that, but I can doubt that he busted a gut like the #11 who worked too hard to get some separation, only to pay the price in the stretch.But, let me see if I can expand that feel by relating this performance to the last of the 2nd choice, #9.
157 1 84 20 241
139 2 83 10 222
123 9 82 4 205
The second choice, #9, is down at the bottom of the chart where I like to see a contender for a grass race at some distance. Early speed of 82 is generally good, given that level of speed however, I'd like to see the rating much lower then 123. In comparison, if the favorite had run at the same level of speed in his last, that rating would be down around 80.If I brought #7 down to 82 early, I'd look for 73 on the "run" rating to have the same balance.The 123 for the #9 shows some struggle and imbalance in the overall run. It can be that #9 was digging in and trying to hang on in the last which is not generally good for a second choice because it means that he likely tried hard to win, but failed. This might look "good" in the form, but it usually does not signal a fresh ready horse today. The #9 may be in it, but probably past the prime condition needed to win it.
130 12 81 6 211
That brings us to the third choice #8, and the fourth choice, #12. Both showing very similar ratings at the lowest early speed level, they seem a little more out of balance then the #9 except for one nuance that has to come under consideration for a grass race 8f or longer. That is their total lack of early speed in the last race. Considering that, the 130, and 136 "run" rating may suggest that they were pretty busy in the back end of the last race. A possibility.
At any rate, there is another reason that these two should be given thorough consideration. Sure, their slowness is attractive to me in general because this race is on the grass, but at 8f speed may diminish, but it does not kill. I want to try to look beyond the obvious here, and consider that these two are half of the average handicappers top 4. I take notice that the #6, at 8-1, has achieved a rating in last that is identical to the fourth choice who is listed at 8-1. This is not a huge difference, but it is always interesting to note that form handicappers have trouble identify equality because they are filtering everything through form. Which can look quite different, even when looking at two equal things.
What may be more significant here is that despite the equality that I can see, the form handicapper sees something that makes #12 and #8 more attractive to him. It is probably not the last race, since that was so slow for both of them. I probably can be safe in assuming that they are capable of picking up the speed a little bit, since the handicapper sees them as having some advantage, even if slight. So they are rated by Ability-X as better then the rest, and probably the #9,#8, and #12 properly fill out the top 4 and can be seen as having an edge on #6 for exotics, but they show no big threat to the #7 for the win.
136 8 81 5 217
130 6 81 8 211
Now that I have analyzed the top four and one outsider along the way, I can turn my attention to any other outsider they may threaten to win. I've already seen that I can't depend on the handicappers to spot all of the contenders through "form", so I'll have to check myself for any competing and unseen ability that may threaten the favorite here.
#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp
259 11 100 20 359
160 10 89 10 249
106 4 88 20 194
You might have noticed #4 already, but I like to run through the choices first, even if an outsider is winking at me. And this one is winking pretty well. At 20-1 he offers more speed and a lower "run" rating, suggesting that he runs fairly easily and evenly behind a little faster pace. Always a big positive, after all, speed handicappers do get it half right. At 20-1, the form handicapper must have a hard knock on this horse though, what could it be? They are half right too. Considering the higher early speed, and the even steady "run" rating, this horse may likely be coming off of the dirt to run on the grass for the first time. Form handicappers hate that. This in itself doesn't bother me, what bothers me is that this horse is fast in comparison to my solid looking fav, but will he spin his wheels trying to get going on the grass? Or will he catch on early and wire this field with his speed. Speedy can work at 8f. I can't depend on the distance getting him, he is probably coming off of 8f on the dirt.
Since #4 has such high odds, I will figure him equal to the favorite in general ability here, but I will figure that the favorite has the advantage of being the favorite, and therefore fitting the race better. The favorite has also run very close to winners par for this surface and distance while #4 figures to run faster early, which should wear on him more. The #4 here is a serious threat here and I should not leave him out of any exotics, but there is still one kicker in favor of the favorite. I doubt that he topped out last time, and there is a possibility that #4 did. At least #4 is more likely to struggle more to get going, #7 is used to starting on grass. And, if it figures that if a horse didn't top out last time, he should be able to pick it up a little early without penalty.
If I were to make a win bet, I'd still have to give the #7 the edge. For any exotics, I'd have to take the top 4 ML and include the #4 as belonging in the group. Going by the ratings, and the composite, these 5 are the lowest of the field. I always like that.
142 5 87 12 229
159 3 86 20 245
113 7 84 3 197
157 1 84 20 241
139 2 83 10 222
123 9 82 4 205
130 12 81 6 211
136 8 81 5 217
130 6 81 8 211
7 Dutiful Douglas 6.20 3.60 2.40
12 Lime Time 6.20 4.40
8 Chesty 4.40
$1 Superfecta $1,195.50 7-12-8-4
Consistent results like this cause me to think that the ratings don't need a lot of work, the work seems to be in understanding what the ratings are telling you. It seems to me that the easiest and fastest way to learn what the ratings mean is to compare then to results charts daily. Not only for did this number win or did that number run third, but also for how the race was run and how you begin to see that also in the ratings. I believe that this is also the best way to get good feel for reading "form" through the ratings and picking up what "form" handicappers can not well discern.
Consistency is king in this game, Ability-X has reinforced that for me also, to the point that I have had to pitch some of my beliefs, I've been happy to trade some of them for the reality that continues to present itself day after day, card after card.
In some ways, I'm still getting used to the results making sense, after so long believing that most races just don't make any sense. Sometimes I just think that things went well... this time, but then the next race goes the same way.
4th - 8fD 3/30/08
#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp
183 5 97 2 280
233 2 96 6 329
237 6 94 15 331
230 1 93 8 323
248 7 88 4 336
228 3 83 5 311
222 4 83 3 305
5 Poovey 3.20 2.20 2.10
4 Discovery Launch 2.80 2.40
1 Catalana Lopez 6.60
$1 Superfecta $74.90 5-4-1-3
I now have a couple of months on my website of day by day ratings and results. Through different weeks the style of selecting, and wagering differs, but through it all you will note the consistencies throughout.
Look a few over in your spare time, you will start to pick up the consistencies yourself, when you think to yourself "I should be betting on this", you might be ready for Ability-X ratings.
jdl
I've got a couple of example races from yesterday 3/30 at GP and I'd like to go over them for those that have asked for more detail on how I analyze the chart and how the numbers of the ratings work. I've also recently added a composite number to the chart that I am observing to see if it is helpful in comparing one to the other. Mostly to see if it makes comparison easier for someone that may not be familiar or aware of the subtleties of the home track.
Since I understand the numbers well, I can make an accurate determination pretty quickly on whether a particular track is generally fast, or generally slow. I think of fast as less tiring, and slow as more tiring. For myself, I only need the generalities, and they show quickly in the ratings. At that point I take them into consideration without any thought about variance, or bias.
I understand that my opinions about speed ratings, variants, biases, and the like are considered heresy in many camps, but I never signed on with those concepts in the first place because I feel that I have always had a reasonably correct understanding of time as it applies to a horse race and it appears that my understanding continues to be backed up by results after30 years of observation. So, I am a little partial to my take on it, and my viewpoint is what underlies these ratings.
Having said that, I will also say that in the past couple of years, I have had to give up a few beliefs myself, some of them I had hung my hat on for quite awhile, but, it is hard to hang on to something that does not consistently show up in the results. But, when you learn something that is actually valid, trading in the old stuff that always was a little flaky can be a good deal. Especially when you can show yourself how flaky it really was on a daily basis.
So let's take a look at:
3/30 GP - 3rd- 8fTurf
I'm actually starting to get attached to everything I need being in this little box, I like to highlight the top four ML in different shades of blue because of one thing I still hang my hat on after all of these years is that one of these four will win this race 70% of the time. One old consistency that Ability-X backs up. The favorite is the most consistent of the bench so that horse ( in navy blue ) becomes my key for analyzing the ratings. This race is 8f on the grass, and grass racing generally calls for differing talent as compared to dirt. The ratings themselves tell me this and anyone can learn these truths by studying the ratings and comparing to results. Many players don't get grass and I used to be one of them, but Ability-X repeated showed mw what the winners on grass have in common, and what they have better then their dirt loving cousins. An even run that is slow early. This is not my opinion, it is how horseracing is. You will see it in an Ability-X chart, it will be backed up result after result.
So, what do I mean by an even run that is slow early and how is it displayed by Ability-X numbers -
113 7 84 3 197
For this race, #7 is our favorite, and it seems deserved because we can see that #7 has an early speed number of 84, and no speed guy would hesitate to call it slow. It may take a couple of weeks for Ability-X to teach you a great deal about the way horses run on various surfaces, but once it has, you will realize that 85 is a very suitable # to use as a general early speed par to see where any particular horse stands in basic grass talent. This is a median, what you have at various distances will demonstrate to you that 5f grass will be similar to it's dirt counterpart with a demand for speed, 8f can have a speed component and if most entrants are well above this par, you will know that early speed will play a larger role in the outcome of that race. But, starting with 8.5f and longer 85 and slower will be the winners early speed mark most of the time. Our boy here, #7 is at 84, very suitable for 8fTurf. This is something that I now know, because Ability-X taught it to me, with indisputable results.
The other component for consideration here is the rating # of the run, for our #7 here it is 113, is it good or bad? Generally, lower is better, but it has to be considered with regard to early speed, what we want to know from it I will describe as balance. It is more "the run" then what it's component early speed is. But, early speed is a component of it that has a distinct effect on it. The effect is horse racing 101, it is true, unchanging, measurable, indicative, and predictive. The effect of early speed is:
The faster a horse runs early, the slower it will run late. The slower a horse runs early, the more evenly it will run the particular distance.
Nothing new, not very complicated, but very consistent. Because it will show up in every race.
So, now as the favorite here #7 is considered for merit in this upcoming race, the question is, "what does the 113/84 rating signify?" I like to throw it up against a general par that I got from results. It seems that for 8f and longer races on grass, the entire group of horses that covered the board will have run around the rating of 100/85, or an equivalent combination.
What is an equivalent combination? Generally 1 point higher early will add 20 points to the "run" figure, 120/86 could be considered equivalent as it is also well balanced, as could 140/87, or 80/84. With this general reality in mind, #7 and the 113/84 registered in the last race can be taken for now to be pretty well balanced in comparison to the other horses entered here.
One other consideration that will be made before starting to compare is the question of likely condition today. In the case of everyday classes, this is a consideration that is difficult to make within the format of "form" because you have been taught to recognize "up close" in a running line as equaling "good condition" today, and "in the back" as equaling "less condition today". This is generally a fallacy of conventional thought that suggests that the only way to get a race horse in good racing condition is to get him out on the track and run his ass off until he comes back with a win or "up close" performance so that we can see that he is getting into "good condition."
Think about it for a few minutes, how sharp are you right after an 84 hour work week, where you won or finished "up close".
In the case of an everyday class race horse that is favored today, it is generally more likely that he will run today as well as you do the Monday morning after an 84 hour work week where you earned the biggest bonus of the quarter. That is the generality, clues to the specifics will be found in how the last race was run. You already know that his "form" looks good, because he is favored. Your question for the last run is since it brought this favored status, did it take some condition out of the horse? If the race of his life got him here, it is not likely that he will do it again today.
The thing to always keep in mind on the issue of physical condition today is that the last race, and form in general are very limited as an actual hard indicator, if you are restricted to this input only, you will have to develop a good feel through experience. The price of which can vary widely. If the last race and form are the only thing that you can work with, you will need to develop a sense for how trainers operate in general and you will need to know the habits of specific trainers. Along with developing a sense for how hard or easy that last race was. Once you gain experience with Ability-X ratings, this is easier to do then it is with "form", because you are looking at measurements of the "run" and making a general comparison with what is generally winners par.
I can guide you in an approach to developing this skill, but to a larger extent you will have to learn it by watching, thinking, comparing, and checking. The better that you can do these things, the faster you will learn and the sooner horse racing will make sense to you rather then leave you dazed and confused all of the time.
As you do this, keep in mind that there is something in every race that the trainer bases his next decisions on. If that trainer knows one end of the horse from the other, it is something consistent and reliable that brings him/her success or failure depending on his/her skills at deciphering what it truly means. It can only be his/her horse's known ability expressed in its run. It is the same thing that a handicapper attempts to quantify from restricted viewpoint of "form".
To the horseplayer, the real value of Ability-X ratings is that it brings you much closer to the viewpoint of the trainer, and can totally remove you from the limited viewpoint of the public, or the wagering competition. If you are able to look at, consider, and quantify ability without the mask of "form" which can be applied quite easily, you gain a powerful and consistent edge. I'm sure that I could add 27 paragraphs right here to expand on this concept, but, I am attempting to keep this short.
#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp
259 11 100 20 359
160 10 89 10 249
106 4 88 20 194
142 5 87 12 229
159 3 86 20 245
113 7 84 3 197
That brings us back to consideration of our favorite here, #7, was the last race a tough hard fought effort?Probably not, 84 is not ligament stretching speed, and 113 is just a shade above par for a nice steady run. I like the idea that maybe the horse was alert and working at the finish, the 113 suggests that, but I can doubt that he busted a gut like the #11 who worked too hard to get some separation, only to pay the price in the stretch.But, let me see if I can expand that feel by relating this performance to the last of the 2nd choice, #9.
157 1 84 20 241
139 2 83 10 222
123 9 82 4 205
The second choice, #9, is down at the bottom of the chart where I like to see a contender for a grass race at some distance. Early speed of 82 is generally good, given that level of speed however, I'd like to see the rating much lower then 123. In comparison, if the favorite had run at the same level of speed in his last, that rating would be down around 80.If I brought #7 down to 82 early, I'd look for 73 on the "run" rating to have the same balance.The 123 for the #9 shows some struggle and imbalance in the overall run. It can be that #9 was digging in and trying to hang on in the last which is not generally good for a second choice because it means that he likely tried hard to win, but failed. This might look "good" in the form, but it usually does not signal a fresh ready horse today. The #9 may be in it, but probably past the prime condition needed to win it.
130 12 81 6 211
That brings us to the third choice #8, and the fourth choice, #12. Both showing very similar ratings at the lowest early speed level, they seem a little more out of balance then the #9 except for one nuance that has to come under consideration for a grass race 8f or longer. That is their total lack of early speed in the last race. Considering that, the 130, and 136 "run" rating may suggest that they were pretty busy in the back end of the last race. A possibility.
At any rate, there is another reason that these two should be given thorough consideration. Sure, their slowness is attractive to me in general because this race is on the grass, but at 8f speed may diminish, but it does not kill. I want to try to look beyond the obvious here, and consider that these two are half of the average handicappers top 4. I take notice that the #6, at 8-1, has achieved a rating in last that is identical to the fourth choice who is listed at 8-1. This is not a huge difference, but it is always interesting to note that form handicappers have trouble identify equality because they are filtering everything through form. Which can look quite different, even when looking at two equal things.
What may be more significant here is that despite the equality that I can see, the form handicapper sees something that makes #12 and #8 more attractive to him. It is probably not the last race, since that was so slow for both of them. I probably can be safe in assuming that they are capable of picking up the speed a little bit, since the handicapper sees them as having some advantage, even if slight. So they are rated by Ability-X as better then the rest, and probably the #9,#8, and #12 properly fill out the top 4 and can be seen as having an edge on #6 for exotics, but they show no big threat to the #7 for the win.
136 8 81 5 217
130 6 81 8 211
Now that I have analyzed the top four and one outsider along the way, I can turn my attention to any other outsider they may threaten to win. I've already seen that I can't depend on the handicappers to spot all of the contenders through "form", so I'll have to check myself for any competing and unseen ability that may threaten the favorite here.
#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp
259 11 100 20 359
160 10 89 10 249
106 4 88 20 194
You might have noticed #4 already, but I like to run through the choices first, even if an outsider is winking at me. And this one is winking pretty well. At 20-1 he offers more speed and a lower "run" rating, suggesting that he runs fairly easily and evenly behind a little faster pace. Always a big positive, after all, speed handicappers do get it half right. At 20-1, the form handicapper must have a hard knock on this horse though, what could it be? They are half right too. Considering the higher early speed, and the even steady "run" rating, this horse may likely be coming off of the dirt to run on the grass for the first time. Form handicappers hate that. This in itself doesn't bother me, what bothers me is that this horse is fast in comparison to my solid looking fav, but will he spin his wheels trying to get going on the grass? Or will he catch on early and wire this field with his speed. Speedy can work at 8f. I can't depend on the distance getting him, he is probably coming off of 8f on the dirt.
Since #4 has such high odds, I will figure him equal to the favorite in general ability here, but I will figure that the favorite has the advantage of being the favorite, and therefore fitting the race better. The favorite has also run very close to winners par for this surface and distance while #4 figures to run faster early, which should wear on him more. The #4 here is a serious threat here and I should not leave him out of any exotics, but there is still one kicker in favor of the favorite. I doubt that he topped out last time, and there is a possibility that #4 did. At least #4 is more likely to struggle more to get going, #7 is used to starting on grass. And, if it figures that if a horse didn't top out last time, he should be able to pick it up a little early without penalty.
If I were to make a win bet, I'd still have to give the #7 the edge. For any exotics, I'd have to take the top 4 ML and include the #4 as belonging in the group. Going by the ratings, and the composite, these 5 are the lowest of the field. I always like that.
142 5 87 12 229
159 3 86 20 245
113 7 84 3 197
157 1 84 20 241
139 2 83 10 222
123 9 82 4 205
130 12 81 6 211
136 8 81 5 217
130 6 81 8 211
7 Dutiful Douglas 6.20 3.60 2.40
12 Lime Time 6.20 4.40
8 Chesty 4.40
$1 Superfecta $1,195.50 7-12-8-4
Consistent results like this cause me to think that the ratings don't need a lot of work, the work seems to be in understanding what the ratings are telling you. It seems to me that the easiest and fastest way to learn what the ratings mean is to compare then to results charts daily. Not only for did this number win or did that number run third, but also for how the race was run and how you begin to see that also in the ratings. I believe that this is also the best way to get good feel for reading "form" through the ratings and picking up what "form" handicappers can not well discern.
Consistency is king in this game, Ability-X has reinforced that for me also, to the point that I have had to pitch some of my beliefs, I've been happy to trade some of them for the reality that continues to present itself day after day, card after card.
In some ways, I'm still getting used to the results making sense, after so long believing that most races just don't make any sense. Sometimes I just think that things went well... this time, but then the next race goes the same way.
4th - 8fD 3/30/08
#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp
183 5 97 2 280
233 2 96 6 329
237 6 94 15 331
230 1 93 8 323
248 7 88 4 336
228 3 83 5 311
222 4 83 3 305
5 Poovey 3.20 2.20 2.10
4 Discovery Launch 2.80 2.40
1 Catalana Lopez 6.60
$1 Superfecta $74.90 5-4-1-3
I now have a couple of months on my website of day by day ratings and results. Through different weeks the style of selecting, and wagering differs, but through it all you will note the consistencies throughout.
Look a few over in your spare time, you will start to pick up the consistencies yourself, when you think to yourself "I should be betting on this", you might be ready for Ability-X ratings.
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