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PaceAdvantage
04-01-2008, 06:02 PM
ISM index released today better than expected (48.6 vs 47.5 consensus), and way above the historical "recession" level of around 44....

Market rallies almost 400 points...

As noted earlier, existing home sales were up month over month....

GDP is STILL positive....not a single quarter of negative growth DESPITE all this doom and gloom talk of recession (with some predicting a DEPRESSION)!

Let me know when that recession gets here....I'm still waiting....

riskman
04-03-2008, 02:40 AM
The economic data continues to show an anemic economy, which remains unable to steady its wobbly legs.

Existing home sales have increased, but new-home sales are down and home prices continue to fall.


Orders for durable goods fell in the most recent report.


Consumer confidence is in the cellar and consumer sentiment also continues to decline.
But the big news was that GDP numbers for the fourth quarter of 2007 showed an abrupt slowdown.

The definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. We cannot call this slowdown a recession yet, but the numbers look bad enough to surmise America is near one.

So how is an investor to respond? What is the prudent course when faced with a probable recession?

Are We Really at the Bottom?

lamboguy
04-03-2008, 09:44 AM
why don't we just say a recession is really not a recession, because the rules change all the time. people are losing jobs and blowing their homes. gas prices have tripled, financial institutions are on the brink of insolvency. but all that stuff don't mean nothing. maybe!


one thing i do know, the dollar has gone down from 126 to 72 and heading to 52. gold has gone from $258 to $1000. so maybe you can spin us in or out of a recession, but you can't spin the math. and that math tells it all!!

ddog
04-03-2008, 11:53 AM
Pa,

Your are a funny guy.

Not better than my consensus forecast though!

We had forecast your post to be worthy of two belly laughs but it only received one.


:lol:

russowen77
04-03-2008, 11:59 AM
Dude,

There is no about one around here. The economy flat out sucks.

riskman
04-03-2008, 12:42 PM
And then we have these fat cats on Wall Street giving us the finger.

You have heard about the severance pay package for Stan O'Neal of Merrill Lynch: over $160 million. In the fourth quarter of 2007, Merrill lost $14 billion. Then there was Charles Prince of Citigroup. He departed in November with $94 million in stock holdings. Citigroup lost close to $10 billion in the fourth quarter.

What is the lesson for investors here? This: big losers win big. Big winners win bigger.
What is the lesson for decision-makers in high places? "Go for broke." The government or some bigger fish will bail out your mistakes if the mistakes are big enough. You will keep your pension. You may even keep your severance pay, if the contract is in writing. :bang:

In a highly leveraged (debt-driven) economy that operates in terms of the assumption of "too big to fail," you can fail big and still win big. Your negative sanction – getting fired – is more profitable than the most positive of sanctions facing 99.99% of all corporate decision-makers.

This is the social price of government-protected enterprise. The more leveraged it is, the more profitable for those at the top, who make the decisions.

Is there something wrong with this picture?

PaceAdvantage
04-04-2008, 12:37 AM
why don't we just say a recession is really not a recession, because the rules change all the time.No, the rules don't change...that's what I'm saying. Not even one quarter of negative GDP growth, let alone two...that's one of the steadfast rules.

sammy the sage
04-12-2008, 07:03 AM
Rule's of the past also stated you:

You must win time of possession to win football games...that all changed in the mid-80's.

Thought I would keep the analogy simple... :rolleyes:...for those WHO ARE STUCK IN THE PAST... :bang:...or are just PLAIN SIMPLE-MINDED!

Your resident goon, doom, gloom, and what-ever else name you wish to spout... :eek: :lol:

traveler
04-12-2008, 08:32 AM
PA - I hope you are just stirring the pot otherwise you are as clueless as Washington. While the classical definition of a recession hasn't changed, we are certainly flirting with one.
Because early speed is still important, do you ignore 5 off the pace winners and bet the speed?
Washington ignores headline inflation which includes energy and food prices - why? - sure keeps the masses in the dark and keeps down their c.o.l.a adjustments down for SS recipients. Have you any clue how much food prices have gone up? Who cares what the unemployment figure is , it's the quality of jobs that is a true measure of a healthy economy. Real wages haven't kept up with inflation for years, pensions are a thing of the past unless you work for state, local or federal government, full employer sponsored health insurance is practically a thing of the past too. Job security - forget it. The government caused this mess by encouraging weak lending standards for the disadvantged to help them become homeowners, the mortgage brokers(pseudo banks) took it to the next level and now the govt. with more easy money is killing the dollar and driving commodity prices through the roof.

Stick to what you know about.

alydar
04-12-2008, 10:08 AM
PA - I hope you are just stirring the pot otherwise you are as clueless as Washington. While the classical definition of a recession hasn't changed, we are certainly flirting with one.
Because early speed is still important, do you ignore 5 off the pace winners and bet the speed?
Washington ignores headline inflation which includes energy and food prices - why? - sure keeps the masses in the dark and keeps down their c.o.l.a adjustments down for SS recipients. Have you any clue how much food prices have gone up? Who cares what the unemployment figure is , it's the quality of jobs that is a true measure of a healthy economy. Real wages haven't kept up with inflation for years, pensions are a thing of the past unless you work for state, local or federal government, full employer sponsored health insurance is practically a thing of the past too. Job security - forget it. The government caused this mess by encouraging weak lending standards for the disadvantged to help them become homeowners, the mortgage brokers(pseudo banks) took it to the next level and now the govt. with more easy money is killing the dollar and driving commodity prices through the roof.

Stick to what you know about.

I have to agree with most of what you have said. At this point anybody that thinks that the current situation isn't serious is simply wrong. We, as a nation are in a precarious situation. It may be possible that we dodge a bullet. But no one shold kid themselves that we can can continue to borrow our way of all of our problems.

wonatthewire1
04-12-2008, 10:25 AM
DO SOMETHING!

A lot of crying about something that none of us has any control over. So take what is "given" to you and make the best of it.

When Schering Plough and Merck got smacked at the end of March, picked up a lot of shares at a decent discount. The Schering (SGP) is up 21.2% and the Merck (MRK) is up 8.3% both in 2 weeks.

Since everybody wanted out - I'll get in - especially with companies that are profitable.

...hint, there was one that dropped a lot on Friday - check it out in the upcoming week...

PaceAdvantage
04-12-2008, 07:19 PM
I have to agree with most of what you have said. At this point anybody that thinks that the current situation isn't serious is simply wrong. We, as a nation are in a precarious situation. It may be possible that we dodge a bullet. But no one shold kid themselves that we can can continue to borrow our way of all of our problems.Hey, Alydar and traveler, when did I ever state that things WERE GREAT out there? Never.

I know we're in an economic slowdown. I never said otherwise.

sammy the sage
04-12-2008, 09:33 PM
by the way...as stated before...in the last 2k years of mankind.

those in charge...GET TO WRITE HISTORY...or RECORD THE FIGURE'S

lier's figure;
figure's lie;

ECT.

Investorater
04-12-2008, 10:40 PM
The 185-nation International Monetary Fund and the World Bank readied for weekend discussions following talks among the worlds 7 richest industrial countries.The worlds economic powers endorsed a plan Friday to keep closer watch over big banks,investment houses and other financial firms.
The IMF the lender of last resort for countries in trouble is facing its own hard times.One proposal on the agenda would trim 15 percent of the agencies staff and sell about $11 billion in the institutions vast gold reserves.

The European Economic and Monetary Affairs commissioner,Joaquin Almunia said economic uncertainty has increased,the financial turmoil has affected advanced countries and the risk of a U.S.recession has risen.He contended the European Union was in "a relatively favorable position to absorb the effects of the financial turmoil." "The turmoil in global financial markets remains challenging and more protracted than we had anticipated," G-7 officials said.Japanese Finance Minister stated "The U.S.economy has to get over the economic unrest for what happens in the United States,will affect Asia and other countries.An IMF outlook predicted a mild recession this year in the U.S.the worlds biggest economy.That is seen as raising the risks of a global recession to 1-in-4. www.imf.org (http://www.imf.org) -www.worldbank.org

pktruckdriver
04-12-2008, 11:00 PM
Come on out here on the road with me and you will see a recession.

I get to go to all these nice places and you will see how bad it is out here.

Get to smell the parking lot on a sunny afternoon, see all the people out here struggling to stay afloat, some working for nothing or less, just praying and hoping it turns around soon.

One this people do not want to see, as you've been programmed to not see this and that is what fuel prices are doing to us, me the truck driver, the one who delivers your goods, the fffffing front liner, the one practically working for nothing, paying over 4.25 a gallon for fuel, yet not getting a penny more to haul this crap we deliver, that keeps America going, well soon enough thses trucks like me, will no longer be able to haul for these rates, hell we can't now, I got a for sale sign in my truck , 20,000 OBO, wiil trade for old race nag, but seriously come on out here see for youself, its here, RECESSION.

patrick

Investorater
04-12-2008, 11:25 PM
I'll take it you are addressing P A members or those on this thread and not me personally-because I would not travel with you anywhere.

pktruckdriver
04-12-2008, 11:34 PM
Some are not worthy of riding with me. OK.


:lol:

Investorater
04-12-2008, 11:40 PM
Speak for yourself and not the ENTIRE economy!:eek: :rolleyes: :lol:

pktruckdriver
04-12-2008, 11:51 PM
Trust me on this one, the worst is yet to come, unfortunately.:eek:

This I wish was untrue, but it is not. Worse is coming soon, very soon.
Patrick

Investorater
04-12-2008, 11:58 PM
As someone once said-"We have nothing to fear,but fear itself.":cool:

PaceAdvantage
04-13-2008, 01:30 AM
Trust me on this one, the worst is yet to come, unfortunately.:eek: Really? An interesting survey came out from the National Federation of Independent Business.....found that small businesses worry about the future, but this is the part I found interesting, and more evidence that this whole "recession" is more imagined than real:

An optimistic Dunkelberg says the survey findings aren't as dismal as previous recessions. Rather than quickly slashing costs, many small firms are slowing or holding off their spending in hopes that the economy will heat up this year.

"People are pessimistic and think the economy is going down, but they're still hiring and engaging in capital spending," Dunkelberg says in an interview. "That means they have a fundamental trust in the economy going forward."and also
The survey found "no evidence" of NFIB members ailing from credit and cash-flow problems arising from the housing slump and tighter bank lending. "It is a Wall Street issue," the survey states.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/smallbusiness/2008-04-08-monthly-index-falls_N.htm

Secretariat
04-13-2008, 10:03 AM
As someone once said-"We have nothing to fear,but fear itself.":cool:


That was said by liberal Franklin Delano Roosevelt

Secretariat
04-13-2008, 10:15 AM
Come on out here on the road with me and you will see a recession.

I get to go to all these nice places and you will see how bad it is out here.

Get to smell the parking lot on a sunny afternoon, see all the people out here struggling to stay afloat, some working for nothing or less, just praying and hoping it turns around soon.

One this people do not want to see, as you've been programmed to not see this and that is what fuel prices are doing to us, me the truck driver, the one who delivers your goods, the fffffing front liner, the one practically working for nothing, paying over 4.25 a gallon for fuel, yet not getting a penny more to haul this crap we deliver, that keeps America going, well soon enough thses trucks like me, will no longer be able to haul for these rates, hell we can't now, I got a for sale sign in my truck , 20,000 OBO, wiil trade for old race nag, but seriously come on out here see for youself, its here, RECESSION.

patrick

Good post patrick.

Frankly, fuel generally peaks near the end of May for the summer so I think it'll rise some more yet. Sorry about that. The devaluation of the dollar and the simplistic answer of printing more money buys some time but the payoff is higher inflation and bigger costs for gas and for food since someone has to pay the bill and it'll be the middle class. The term slowdown seems to be the refrain of those who want to avoid the R word. The bottom line is this administation looked the other way which has led to this mess, and is now trying to put a band aid on a bleeding artery. Obama says people are bitter now. I'd like to interview people after going to fill up their tanks or buying weekly groceries or after foreclosure. GE's profits were dismal and the market tanks 250 points in a day. Wall Street may hope this turns around, but without new innovation it won't. I frankly don't see new innovation out there. The computer and expansion of the internet carried a major technological boom of the 90's. It just isn't out there now with the US at the forefront. We've outsourced our technolgical advantage and are even losing basic service jobs overseas. I don't know who the next President will be but whoever it is has inherited a mess with a costly war for nothing gobbling up huge expenditures out of the budget with no end in site. McCain envisions 100 years in Iraq. We'll all be dead by then, but it'd be nice to see that last American soldier leave there. Maybe some baby born today will get to see it when they hit a 100. :bang:

Investorater
04-13-2008, 10:24 AM
liberal-conservative-moderate-extremist,its all the same from my personal perspective.

pktruckdriver
04-13-2008, 10:30 AM
Ok now while you are trying to convince me of the fact that we are ok in America and everything is going to be alright,and is truly what I want to believe is the case, America on the mend, but I can not and will not be swayed on this for what I see out here in America.

I am sorry for not being more computer savy about copy quoting/pasting/etc...
all the fancy stuff you get into the posts here, but in both the Wall Street Journal and the Trucker News as well as a few others that are on my reading list to keep up with my part in this economy, which is the transportation industry.

These media outlets are not forcasting sunshine and sweetness, I'm sorry. I wish they were wrong, I love this country, always will, but we are heading into some hard times, without some major changes being done to prevent it, and those will most likely not be done, they have yet to be done, and when talked about, they are mostly glossed over unfortunately.


When the government must step in to stop all the foreclosures from happening, when my Bank bought Countrywide I was , and still am worried about how they are going to handle the mess Countrywide got themselves into, without taking down my bank with them, now it is a wait and see, since it is a done deal. And this is just one crisis this country has, but it is very big one that has to be dealt with. Many more minor and major messess are waiting for their turn in the spotlight.

Currency/energy/housing/banking/transpotation/manufacturing all are on the ropes right now, one real hard blow from being KO'ed completly, that is my take on things, and this from a truck driver, not an economist, politician or even a proffessional horse man, just a truck driver. Now y'all will probally call me things as was done earlier in the post, but that is ok, I will keep plugging away till I can't do it anymore, so say what you will, reality is reality!!!!!

Patrick

Tom
04-13-2008, 03:33 PM
In the is ara, housing prices up 14.2% over the last 12 months ended in February. No housing problems here.

hcap
04-13-2008, 03:53 PM
liberal-conservative-moderate-extremist,its all the same from my personal perspective.Your perspective involves Satan manipulating the internet, and other such superstitions.
Hey why worry. You will be wisked away to the great beyond in a twinkling of an eye. I bet gas prices will drop tremendously when all of you folks are raptured.
Obviously less demand,more supply.

Too bad you can't bet on future prices on a heavenly established exchange.
I assume there will be some GOOD brokers and GOOD Exxon alumni keeping things honest up there

ddog
04-13-2008, 04:15 PM
Really? An interesting survey came out from the National Federation of Independent Business.....found that small businesses worry about the future, but this is the part I found interesting, and more evidence that this whole "recession" is more imagined than real:

and also


http://www.usatoday.com/money/smallbusiness/2008-04-08-monthly-index-falls_N.htm




Well square this comment from the same study:

"Reductions in employment from layoffs and terminations eased from February," Dunkelberg said, "but the sharp decline in job creation plans does not bode well for economic growth in the near term."

The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism fell 3.3 points in March to 89.6 – its lowest reading since the monthly surveys were started in 1986!!!!, and the lowest quarterly reading since the second quarter of 1980!!!!!!.
The decline was driven by a sour outlook for business conditions and REAL SALES GROWTH, accounting for half the decline in the Index. Weaker plans to create new jobs accounted for 21 percent of the decline. "We are seeing recession readings," said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg.

The number of owners planning to make capital expenditures over the next few months fell a point to 25. Five percent said this is a good time to expand facilities, down three points from February. A net-negative 23 percent expect business conditions to improve over the next six months, down 14 points from February. A net-negative 3 percent expect increases in real sales, down three points

These people are not dumb, these attitudes are WIth THE STIMULUS package that contains major help for this group.
So, you would think they would be gung ho with those tax breaks in the next few months, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

As to the "point" about credit, if a business sees NO NEED to ramp up in the near term, then they will not be looking for new cedit, but just treading water.
So, the credit problems would not be hurting them now.
They don't need it.
I can tell you there are banks out there looking at those lines that are sitting there.


Nothing in that sounds good to me.

There are tons of job layoffs coming, the slowdown does not result in immediate layoffs.
I expect at least 200,000 in financials in the next few months.

the trends are in the wrong direction.

russowen77
04-13-2008, 04:58 PM
I sure wish I had moved to Cali in my youth. I will be leaving Hot Springs within a month hopefully. You can survive here but that is about all the average worker can do at this time.

They are having house auctions on Lake Hamilton and I have never seen that in my life.

I am glad to hear at least some of y'all are immune.

Investorater
04-13-2008, 05:10 PM
What They Believe by Harold J. Berry------Mr Cap
While secular humanists say that they recognize the importance of religious experience,they also say:We deny,however,that such experiences have anything to do with the supernatural.Because the humanists do not recognize the supernatural-either divine or demonic-they must give everything a naturalistic explanation.This eliminates God from the classrooms and negates any moral accountability to a supreme being.Whether they realize it or not,"it is appointed for men to die once,and after this comes judgment"(Hebrews 9:27).
Humanists think that religion should bow to the authority of science.Part of the fifth affirmation of Humanist Manifesto I says:Religion must formulate its hopes and plans in the light of the scientific spirit and method.In their zeal to dethrone religion with its supernatural God,the secular humanists have made science their god.
The United States Supreme Court in various cases has decreed that secular humanism is a religion.Specifically,in the case of Torcaso v. Watkins(1961)
Let us not be so naive as to think that the secular humanists have always been tolerant or that they are now tolerant of those holding the beliefs of biblical Christianity.

pktruckdriver
04-13-2008, 06:33 PM
HCAP

Thank you very much:lol: :lol: :lol:


Patrick

Valuist
04-13-2008, 09:47 PM
Really? An interesting survey came out from the National Federation of Independent Business.....found that small businesses worry about the future, but this is the part I found interesting, and more evidence that this whole "recession" is more imagined than real:

and also


http://www.usatoday.com/money/smallbusiness/2008-04-08-monthly-index-falls_N.htm

That's not what I'm hearing. It'll eventually come around but there's still more shoes to drop. I see further trouble for many of the financials; I think the next companies to drop will be the credit card companies and commercial real estate. The only companies with good earnings and positive news will be those with international exposure. THe U.S. economy is not the place to invest, at least for the near term.

PaceAdvantage
04-14-2008, 12:42 AM
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/apr2008/pi20080410_853895.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index _businessweek+exclusives

hcap
04-14-2008, 06:01 AM
Investorater
What They Believe by Harold J. Berry------Mr Cap
While secular humanists say that they recognize the importance of religious experience,they also say:We deny,however,that such experiences have anything to do with the supernatural.Because the humanists do not recognize the supernatural-either divine or demonic-they must give everything a naturalistic explanation.The "supernatural" is easily distorted and dumbed down into ones own fears and childish fantasies. True religion is the domain of faith and symbolic understanding. Announcing loudly I am pious, and telling others their "God-ordained fate" undermines all religions.
Real prayer is best private and non judgmental.

Matthew 6:6 (King James Version)

But thou, when thou prayest, enter into thy closet, and when thou hast shut thy door, pray to thy Father which is in secret; and thy Father which seeth in secret shall reward thee openly.

And Mr 'rater, how about NOT answering every post with somebody else's words. Satan got your tongue?

Patrick, sorry about your situation. And you are nor the only one experiencing the downside of unlimited greed and a failed war. Mr.Investorater has lost it. For someone sooooo pious to neglect compassion, pretty much tells all.

ddog
04-14-2008, 03:58 PM
In the is ara, housing prices up 14.2% over the last 12 months ended in February. No housing problems here.


SELL THE RIPS THEN.

Gibbon
04-14-2008, 05:28 PM
What recession? Retail sales for the month of March ’08 UP by two tenths of a percent. Shortest recession ever! Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN1227939120080414?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews)





Disclaimer: Rise attributed solely to gasoline prices.

PaceAdvantage
04-14-2008, 06:20 PM
Excluding gasoline, sales were flat last month, suggesting the consumer spending that fuels two-thirds of the economy's thrust is flagging.Oh my...flat sales....sounds like the sky is falling to me....forget recession, this is a full-fledged depression in the making.

traveler
04-15-2008, 10:59 AM
[QUOTE=Gibbon]What recession? Retail sales for the month of March ’08 UP by two tenths of a percent. Shortest recession ever! Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN1227939120080414?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews)

Geez, why confuse yourself with the facts - here is a direct quote from the article you reference.

"The rise, however, reflected a surge in gasoline prices that pushed gas station receipts up a sharp 1.1 percent.

Excluding gasoline, sales were flat last month, suggesting the consumer spending that fuels two-thirds of the economy's thrust is flagging."

This whole debate over whether were in a recession or not is silly. To me it's kind of like when Senator Everitt Dickson said he couldn't define pornography but he knew it when he saw it. The economy for many is terrible and little hope of improving. BTW, I am not complaining , I am one of the lucky ones.

ddog
04-15-2008, 11:15 AM
Iwould agree, the we are or we are not is not the basic point in the medium term.

The issue is with the looming challenges we have not dealt with in pensions and other social/spending programs.

Each year that goes by brings a tougher set of choices down the road if one is in a medium term flat to low growth period.

Check the recent corp fed tax receipts.
off the cliff.
someone has to pay for something sometime.

jballscalls
04-15-2008, 11:18 AM
I know at my families business, we have had a great last two or three months. so if this is a recession, i cant wait til the boom!!

robert99
04-15-2008, 04:44 PM
I know at my families business, we have had a great last two or three months. so if this is a recession, i cant wait til the boom!!

Are you undertakers?

JustRalph
04-15-2008, 05:13 PM
What kind of business? I would be curious to know.............service sector?

PaceAdvantage
04-15-2008, 05:56 PM
Intel issues earnings surprise....recession goons take another hit:

Intel (INTC)22.30 +1.40
(+6.7%)
Intel reported first quarter earnings of $0.29 per share, excluding a $0.04 charge related to restructuring and asset impairment charges. The adjusted earnings per share results were $0.04 better than the consensus of $0.25 per share. Revenues rose 9.3% year-over-year to $9.67 billion, which is largely in-line with the $9.63 billion consensus sales forecast. Additionally, Intel issued in-line guidance for second quarter sales, which are expected to range from $9.0 billion to $9.6 billion. Analysts, on average, currently estimate that second quarter revenues will total $9.2 billion.

in addition we have this from the big rail company:

CSX Corp. (CSX)59.02 +1.25
(+2.2%)
CSX reported first quarter earnings of $0.80 per share, excluding non-recurring items, which is $0.06 better than the $0.74 that analysts came to expect. Revenues rose 12% year-over-year to $2.7 billion. Analysts expected sales would total $2.6 billion. Management sees 2008 earnings at the upper end of its previous guidance range, $3.40 to $3.60 per share. Analysts pegged full-year earnings at $3.44 per share. With 2007 as the baseline, the company is confident that it can achieve compound annual growth in operating income of 13% to 15%, as well as 18% to 21% compound annual growth in earnings per share before the impact of share repurchases through 2010.

traveler
04-16-2008, 10:37 AM
I hope you don't rely on analysts as an intelligent/objective source. As an example, one of these moron ratings firms downgraded Sovereign Bank from hold to sell the other day - of course they have gone from over $20/sh to $8 and change, kind of late to the party. As to Intel, glad to see a positive story, but - railroads will certainly do well in this environment, as fuel prices rise for truckers the cost to send goods via rail becomes cheaper as rail is diesel/electric. As in horseracing, numbers don't tell the whole story. From some of the posts in this thread I know why I do well at the track and others don't. Over and out from a semi-goon.

Tom
04-16-2008, 10:57 AM
Are you undertakers?

:lol::lol::lol::ThmbUp:

Gibbon
04-17-2008, 03:37 AM
earnings surprise... Multi-nationals have sufficient cash on hand and low income to dept ratio. Large American corporations are in tip-top shape. Some inconsequential difficulties at large money center banks will be dealt with this quarter.

Otherwise, what of “we the people?”

pktruckdriver what have you been up to? Tanker truck driver arrested for selling gasoline out of his truck for 2 bucks a gallon. And so it begins - http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-416drivercharged,0,2010237.story






_______________________________
To get profit without risk, experience without danger, and reward without work, is as impossible as it is to live without being born. ~ A. P. Gouthev

chickenhead
04-17-2008, 04:18 PM
google hammers earnings as well. Good boy google.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080417/google_results.html?.v=3

pktruckdriver
04-17-2008, 06:18 PM
In response to Gibbon


This idea of selling fuel out here on the road has been and will probally continue to be something most look the other way at, why you ask , well here are a few reason for it to be done......

1. Company drivers has not been paid for weeks, he needs to eat, to survive, all he has is his fuel card, so he sells some fuel to an Owner Operator at a discount and wrong as it may be, it's done everyday.

2. Some people are always stealing, no matter what they do, trucking has it's thieves as well, why not, look at us a group,(no I don't mean unsavory or criminal in anyway what-so-ever), who we are ,where we come from, and I'm amazed that it is not worse, "Now let me be clear hear why I say this as I know this can easily be taken the wrong way, Truckers out here on the road get to see each day the absolute cut-throat world of business, everyone getting in on the pie, need examples here's just a few,

A. Brokers are not really needed in this business and yet they take over 50% of our revenue, sometimes more , but so called legal thievery

B. Lumpers, paying up to $500.00 to unload the recievers freight, frieght they bought and paid for, freight they will use to stock their stores with, and yet they charge the truck drivers to unload it at their docks, using their employees most of the time, wal-mart does this, it is documented, others too.
This too is legal thievery each and everyday out here.

C. Then we got the government out here too, why is it that each and every ticket written to a truck driver is over 200-500% more for a trucker to pay than an automobile driver, more thievery, than we get road taxes we must pay, and higher tolls than cars, and then the fuel taxes for each state is different and they keep going up too, I could go on but you get the idea.

God, I'd be happy with just a 15-25% takeout let me tell you.


So when I see the tanker driver arrested for selling his fuel, if I was on the jury he'd be found not guilty, but thats why I don't do jury duty.

But stealing is stealing and I do not condone stealing in any way, never, it is wrong, but I just thought I'd enlighten you as to why it is done out here, and then there is the bad apple, here's here too.

IF WE DO NOT DO SOMETHING ABOUT THE FUEL PRICES SOON, WE MAY NEVER RECOVER FROM THIS, AND HOW SAD WOULD THAT BE ?????

PATRICK

Gibbon
04-17-2008, 07:58 PM
Incredibly enlightening post Patrick, thanks for that.
Among other commodities, I trade energy futures and have posted numerous disaster scenarios here. You state “DO SOMETHING ABOUT THE FUEL PRICES SOON, WE MAY NEVER RECOVER...” Today's oil close: $114.98 yet again world record inflation adjusted highs.
Dollar: against all major currencies, yet again record lows.

We have already reached your point of no return. Consider the gluttonous need for black gold throughout Asia AND record needs by booming economies in Peru, Brazil, Columbia, Argentina, etc...
Couple that with defecto war declared by OPEC in 1973 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis) and refusal to build any new nuclear energy power plants in America ...

Today's subprime mortgage credit woes will seem insignificant to the coming energy crises. Even at todays' lofty oil prices I will continue to “write call options” or bet on higher oil prices. No matter which clueless imbecile takes the white house in Nov. we are all in serious trouble.

The Producer price index or PPI (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Producer_price_index) is beginning to reflect the wanton ways by our governments need to inflate money supplies to stave off an imaginary credit crunch. Our reckless need to consume by spending while other world economies are trained to save and produce may be inscribed on Bush's fiscally irresponsible tombstone.

Also, keep in mind while our greenback continues to fall, Americas' trade deficit {so far at least} continues to RISE. This is due to the economically shrewed Chinese pegging their currency called the “yuan” to our dollar. Meaning: as our greenback falls so does the Yuan. Virtually guaranteeing a trade deficit.

PaceAdvantage
04-18-2008, 10:40 PM
I hope you don't rely on analysts as an intelligent/objective source.I don't think I've written anything that would indicate otherwise.

boxcar
04-20-2008, 01:29 PM
ISM index released today better than expected (48.6 vs 47.5 consensus), and way above the historical "recession" level of around 44....

Market rallies almost 400 points...

As noted earlier, existing home sales were up month over month....

GDP is STILL positive....not a single quarter of negative growth DESPITE all this doom and gloom talk of recession (with some predicting a DEPRESSION)!

Let me know when that recession gets here....I'm still waiting....

Gloom and Doomers will be gloom and doomers no matter what the subject matter is. Great case in point is the "global warming" issue. Since more and more scientists have seen recent cooling trends, the fear-mongering, egg-on-face GloomDooms simply change the terminology to "global climate change" because this phrase will cover all the bases all the time. The Planet will be in deep trouble no matter which way the wind blows or how it blows. But even more importantly, humankind will still be responsible for it.

Likewise, I predict that GloomDooms will redefine the term "recession" so that the new definition will fit in with their idiotic world view and political ideology.
But the problem they face with economic issues is that when their guy or gal is in office, they will want to be sure to make the definition quite flexible and pliable so that when times really do get bad, they can represent them as really not being so. They're somehow good. Or maybe when they're bad, they'll just manage to blame it all on fiscal policies of previous administrations.

Boxcar

46zilzal
04-20-2008, 01:35 PM
According to the financial Bible: The Wall Street Journal.
Financial CEOs See Recession on the Way
By Conor Dougherty

Chief executive officers in the financial-services industry think the economy is in or will soon be in a recession, but they believe the Federal Reserve is handling the credit turmoil fairly well.

The Financial Services Forum, a group of 20 CEOs of financial-services companies doing business in the U.S., Friday released a survey that shows chief executives are increasingly pessimistic about the economy's prospects.

Respondents on average placed the likelihood of a U.S. recession at 88%.

hcap
04-22-2008, 02:59 PM
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2008/04/california-fo-1.html

California foreclosure "surge": Up 327% from '07 levels

"The number of California homes lost to foreclosure in the first quarter surged 327% from year-ago levels -- reaching an average of more than 500 foreclosures per day -- DataQuick said in a report warning that the widening foreclosure problem could "spread beyond the current categories of dicey mortgages, and into mainstream home loans."

46zilzal
04-22-2008, 03:03 PM
That is ashamed: even people WITH some money are now getting screwed.

46zilzal
04-22-2008, 05:46 PM
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/International_Business/Singapores_GIC_warns_of_global_recession_crisis/articleshow/2968462.cms
SINGAPORE: Singapore's GIC, one of the biggest sovereign wealth funds, warned on Monday the world could be facing its worst recession in 30 years and that financial markets would be highly volatile.

Sovereign wealth funds from Asia and the Middle East have become more influential in financial markets after pouring billions of dollars into big banks on Wall Street and Europe that were reeling from losses related to the US mortgage market.

The Government of Singapore Investment Corp (GIC), which analysts estimate could manage assets or more than $300 billion, said financial turmoil would leave markets extremely volatile over the next one to two years.

wonatthewire1
04-22-2008, 06:48 PM
to see gas (here) at $3.49 for regular, my neighbor (who was admiring my solar panels on the back roof of my house) said his heating oil delivery yesterday was at $4.35/gallon

the panels paid for themselves in 3 years - though I was told by a couple of people here that they were too expensive and I'd never get my money back (already getting it back) - the natural gas bill so far this year is 1/4 of what we used to pay...

chickenhead
04-22-2008, 10:36 PM
California foreclosure "surge": Up 327% from '07 levels

Good. The prices need to come down.

russowen77
04-22-2008, 11:07 PM
I have stated this before but there is an upside. A lot of the services jobs that were sent to India etc are coming back to the US. Cheaper here now.

I guess there will soon be jokes all over Asia about having to understand Americans any time they call for customer service.

hcap
04-22-2008, 11:19 PM
Good. The prices need to come down.
Depends on who is the forecloser and who is the foreclosee.

http://www.dqnews.com/images/Graphs/For0408.JPG

"La Jolla, CA.--The number of California homes going into foreclosure jumped last quarter to its highest level in more than 15 years, as the market continued to works its way through declining home values and a pool of at-risk mortgages that were originated in 2005 and 2006, a real estate information service reported."

Jaguar
04-22-2008, 11:21 PM
What the America haters never mention is a simple fact: economists do not accurately estimate future demand. I studied economics in college, and my brother-in-law-(who recently stepped down as Chairman of the Economics Department at a major State University, agrees with me).

Foreign countries have far worse problems, so their people export their capital and invest in our economy. This tremendous inflow of capital fuels our stability and helps us grow and expand.

Because a liberal Congress has prevented our drilling for more oil, as well as impeding badly needed refinery construction, we ordinary Americans are getting a beating at the gas pumps.

Let America drill and refine the black gold and our hard-working, resourceful, and resilient people will create an economic boom that will make the wonderful Reagan boom of the 80,s look like like a Depression.

Jaguar

Tom
04-22-2008, 11:28 PM
Good point J, the only think holding this economy...this country down, is liberal democrats. The ONLY thing.

JustRalph
04-22-2008, 11:32 PM
Depends on who is the forecloser and who is the foreclosee.

http://www.dqnews.com/images/Graphs/For0408.JPG

"La Jolla, CA.--The number of California homes going into foreclosure jumped last quarter to its highest level in more than 15 years, as the market continued to works its way through declining home values and a pool of at-risk mortgages that were originated in 2005 and 2006, a real estate information service reported."

La Jolla? You ever been there? If you bought a home in La jolla and you are losing it............you were living way above your means........... :bang:

russowen77
04-22-2008, 11:32 PM
What the America haters never mention is a simple fact: economists do not accurately estimate future demand. I studied economics in college, and my brother-in-law-(who recently stepped down as Chairman of the Economics Department at a major State University, agrees with me).

Foreign countries have far worse problems, so their people export their capital and invest in our economy. This tremendous inflow of capital fuels our stability and helps us grow and expand.

Because a liberal Congress has prevented our drilling for more oil, as well as impeding badly needed refinery construction, we ordinary Americans are getting a beating at the gas pumps.

Let America drill and refine the black gold and our hard-working, resourceful, and resilient people will create an economic boom that will make the wonderful Reagan boom of the 80,s look like like a Depression.

Jaguar
You think drilling for more oil. Which will be really expensive to get to, is going to be the answer for our problems??

The day we can find a true alternative to oil is the day that we can send the Middle East right back to the Middle ages where they belong.

chickenhead
04-22-2008, 11:47 PM
Depends on who is the forecloser and who is the foreclosee.

Not really, I'm neither.

Here a chart of inflation adjusted home prices, look closely at the gain from 1890-1990.

http://mysite.verizon.net/vodkajim/housingbubble/shiller_graph.gif

10% in real dollars. We'll take that as our baseline, home prices should go up around 10% a century in real dollars.

People borrowed way more than they could afford, to buy something that is not much of an investment at all. Either too greedy, or not educated enough on what they were doing. Banks took advantage of that. Home prices spike.

Now is your #1 concern, in general, protecting those people that were either greedy or dumb, or in having affordable housing? With the understanding that it really is one or the other. You can't have price support AND housing costs inline with what they should be.

I think affordable housing is much more important. People that didn't "trade up" in the last few years, and who didn't pile on even more debt by sucking out equity....guess where they're going to be once housing prices finishing correcting? Exactly where they started...a home that is worth pretty much what they paid for it in real dollars.

hcap
04-23-2008, 06:34 AM
Chick, I think your position that the self-correcting nature of capitalism is just fine here, and then I assume all the time, is not fine. Granted, it generally is better to not interfere when free market economic systems are running relatively smoothly, but it appears a "perfect storm" of intercepting problems are combining to bring serious problems to many caught up in the "storm"
"People borrowed way more than they could afford, to buy something that is not much of an investment at all. Either too greedy, or not educated enough on what they were doing. Banks took advantage of that. Home prices spike.

...Now is your #1 concern, in general, protecting those people that were either greedy or dumb, or in having affordable housing? With the understanding that it really is one or the other. You can't have price support AND housing costs inline with what they should be."

Darwinian survival of the the least greedy? Culling the least able mini-capitalist home owners ( and lenders ). May be good in the long run, but that kind of unregulated long run is gonna bring much grief to many and many in associated housing businesses. More culling from the price of energy, the very weak dollar, and generally a shift to a service economy among other economic weaknesses are joining forces.

Too much culling, too quickly.

Actually the most greedy or stupidly greedy, are going to affect many others not directly involved. We bailed out Bear Sterns knowing their failure would spread thru' the financial market. What happened to the the hands off self correcting position of Laissez faire you are suggesting we allow to take place here in housing? I would assume Bear Sterns qualifies as greedy AND stupid.

Adam Smiths' Invisible Hand, I believe has grown a social conscience over the years. On it's own pure unregulated "self correction" leads to abuses and centralization of power. In an economy with heavily intertwined industries and markets, abuses, greediness and stupidity trickle down, up and sideways.

I think we disagree on what amount of federal help and regulation is required. Or do you think we should walk away and let the chips fall where they may? And introduce no new safeguards?

chickenhead
04-23-2008, 09:54 AM
I think we disagree on what amount of federal help and regulation is required. Or do you think we should walk away and let the chips fall where they may? And introduce no new safeguards?

Safeguards, I fully agree. Mistakes should be learned from. This really has nothing to do with a philosophical free hand, it's about what works. Regulation is necessary, always has been, always will be.

As for help. the only help the fed can give failing homeowners will by necessity prolonging the correction, so it's basically a question of how long you want home prices to be priced above where they should be.

Banks are taking massive writedowns each quarter. Much is made of the "bail out" of Bear Stearns, many times that amount of money has already gone to the failing homeowner in the form of stimulus. Even more is not the answer, imo.

Unwise homeowners are going to have to take writedowns also. It's just a question of when. Right now they are beginning to take them rapidly. Do we prolong the process as long as possible, or try to get it over with, take the hit, and move on. I prefer the latter.

Either way, it's going to be a major lag on the economy, no matter what route you take, the other guy will be able to say "Things would have been better my way". It's not going to be pretty, but the damage has already been done, the mistakes have already been made. You can't "fix it" now in a way that takes the sting out of it. imo.

Lefty
04-23-2008, 12:23 PM
russ, how long can we wait for those alternatives? We shoulds been drilling 30 yrs ago and to wait for something better is nuts. We need more supply and when we find those viable alternatives, we can stop.

russowen77
04-23-2008, 03:36 PM
russ, how long can we wait for those alternatives? We shoulds been drilling 30 yrs ago and to wait for something better is nuts. We need more supply and when we find those viable alternatives, we can stop.

We had six years of a Congress and a President that were very oil friendly. We didn't increase our output do to costs. If we open those up then we are going to have to get real serious about getting rid of the gas guzzlers.

What we should have been doing since 1974 was working on those solutions. We probably wouldn't be in such deep do right now. We let our RR go to pooh and they could really be of help if all the spurs went in such disrepair.

Biofuel won't work. At least not with corn etc. Driving around in an Escalade while skying food costs is inane.

I wonder how much farther along fuel cells would be for instance if we had gotten serious when we can.

These reserves probably don't have 30 years anyway. China is going more and more to private cars. Opening up drilling is just a pipe dream that will cost millions for little value.

hcap
04-26-2008, 06:47 AM
chickenhead
Originally Posted by hcap
I think we disagree on what amount of federal help and regulation is required. Or do you think we should walk away and let the chips fall where they may? And introduce no new safeguards?
Safeguards, I fully agree. Mistakes should be learned from. This really has nothing to do with a philosophical free hand, it's about what works. Regulation is necessary, always has been, always will be.What's the difference between Safeguards and Regulation?



There's more doom and gloom approaching. Not saying all doom, but this is not good.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/26/business/26econ.html?ref=business


"Confidence Falls to Lowest Level in 26 Years

By BLOOMBERG NEWS
Published: April 26, 2008

American consumer confidence fell to a 26-year low in April, more than forecast, as unemployment rose and fuel prices hit records.

The Reuters/University of Michigan sentiment index decreased to 62.6, from 69.5 in March. The measure was down from a preliminary estimate of 63.2 issued on April 11.

Consumers are growing increasingly anxious because the economy has lost almost a quarter-million jobs so far this year, gasoline is up 17 percent and property values have fallen. Sales of houses and cars have declined as a result, contributing to a slowdown that may bring an end to the six-year expansion."

chickenhead
04-26-2008, 02:02 PM
I never argued against regulation, safeguards, etc, I'm not sure why you think I have. Banks essentially are given the right to create money, of course how they do that needs to be regulated.

But when they do get out of hand, that money needs to come back out of the market. That is the only thing that puts things back to where they should have been, had they not gotten out of hand. Having the fed try to keep all that money in the system just promotes and prolongs the distortion.

We don't disagree on the need for fed regulation, it's the need for federal "help" that we don't see eye to eye on.

Gibbon
04-26-2008, 09:05 PM
This dependency on fossil fuels is akin to horse and buggy. Advanced economies are moving toward the atom for large energy needs thereby reducing hostage negotiations with terrorist countries. Russia, China, France, Japan, and India are all building nuclear power plants. Sensible economies providing real solutions to future growth. Oil spills solved, greenhouse gases solved, radiation contamination cried about by environmental Nazis solved 20 years ago.

Our oil problems are only going to get worse. Our trade balance is only going to get worse. We are left behind. Friday's close: $118.52

hcap
04-27-2008, 06:33 AM
Chick,

My feeling is that the commonwealth sometimes requires intervention by government. The rise in energy costs are affecting home owners. The "perfect storm" of converging problems. More than just overvalued housing prices due for a correction.

What are your feelings about this?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/25/us/25heating.html?ei=5065&en=e4a4e538897fcb65&ex=1209787200&adxnnl=1&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print&adxnnlx=1209291561-JqB9ZImh3vDa+OUZoDryKw

"After struggling with soaring heating costs through the winter, millions of Americans are behind on electric and gas bills, and a record number of families could face energy shut-offs over the next two months, according to state energy officials and utilities around the country.

The escalating costs of heating oil, propane and kerosene, most commonly used in the Northeast, have posed the greatest burdens, officials say, but natural gas and electricity prices have also climbed at a time when low-end incomes are stagnant and prices have also jumped for food and gasoline."

robert99
04-27-2008, 05:33 PM
hcap,

It is similar over here.
Inflation really hits the poor and pensioners on fixed incomes.
In the last year, fuel has gone up 20% and food 15% and further rapid rises are forecast. The official inflation figure is 2.4% but for these folks inflation is in excess of 35%, at a time when they can only afford a 0% increase.

Lefty
04-27-2008, 06:26 PM
h'cap, these energy prices killing everyone and they are largely due to us not using the resources under our own land and not building nuclear power plants. I imagine most of you want to rant and rave about prices but won't agree with the obvious solutions. It was ever thus...

russowen77
04-27-2008, 08:09 PM
h'cap, these energy prices killing everyone and they are largely due to us not using the resources under our own land and not building nuclear power plants. I imagine most of you want to rant and rave about prices but won't agree with the obvious solutions. It was ever thus...

Would you like to share with us your data on where all this oil is under our land and how much cost to extract it.

As far as nukes go, what do you want to do with all the wastes and please share with us the cost of securing them as they are perfect targets for terrorists. Especially since we have been nice enough to show them how to use copper correctly or at least share any new vessel designs.

Where to put them would also be nice as we sure can't locate them on any fault zone.

Lefty
04-27-2008, 08:55 PM
I'm hearing and reading all the time about how much we have all over the place. Anwar, our coasts. In fact China is drilling off the coast of Cuba just 90 miles from Fl. How much is it costing us not to exract it. Waste, I don't know; what does France do with theirs? You want energy, but just waiting for the energy fairy, i guess, to make alternatives suddenly ready for prime time.
I also heard we have a lot of soft coal deposits too.

russowen77
04-27-2008, 09:29 PM
Well, you didn't answer the questions. Cuba is not the US and you said we had plenty of oil here.

We ship our waste to underground facilities mainly in Utah I think. The cost of that is going up because we have to guard it so well. One nice IED of suffeicent power and a large area of the US would be unusable. That is the reason so many states are suing to make sure it doesn't go there territory.

A nice dirty bomb and the terroists wouldn't even have to supply the "dirt".

You made the statements that all this would be so easy. All I was asking for was your data. You tell me China is drilling off of Cuba. I just don't see the relevance.

Where did you say you would put the reactors?

Also, I personally don't care what France does about anyting.

There is no knee jerk simple answer to this situation. None.

Lefty
04-27-2008, 09:53 PM
russ if you don't understand the implication of China drilling off the coast of cuba you're just too dense to be helped. Think about it.
France has most of its energy coming from nuclear power and you don't care what they do with the waste? That's pretty ignorant in itself. Like I said, people like you whine but dismiss that we should actually get at the ample resources we have. Keep whining, see what it gets you.

russowen77
04-27-2008, 10:34 PM
russ if you don't understand the implication of China drilling off the coast of cuba you're just too dense to be helped. Think about it.
France has most of its energy coming from nuclear power and you don't care what they do with the waste? That's pretty ignorant in itself. Like I said, people like you whine but dismiss that we should actually get at the ample resources we have. Keep whining, see what it gets you.

You make bombastic statements that you can't back up and you say I am too dense to help

How large is the field off Cuba. If it is significantg would now not be a good time for us to start doing buisness with the country?? I would think we could easily squeeze out the Chinese when it comes to drilling for oil. Do you think they are superior to us in that regard.

What % of Frances power comes from nuclear energy?? Why do you think it is a good thing for us to emulate France??

Do you have any answers at all?

I am not the one who said this would be simple. Give us some data or at least sources. Links???

ljb
04-27-2008, 10:37 PM
Russ
All of Lefty's thoughts come from Rushbo He has been voted number 1 dittohead in the U.S. Canada, Mexico, Cuba and some sections of the old world. :D

russowen77
04-27-2008, 11:13 PM
Russ
All of Lefty's thoughts come from Rushbo He has been voted number 1 dittohead in the U.S. Canada, Mexico, Cuba and some sections of the old world. :D
:)

Lefty
04-28-2008, 12:12 AM
lbj, haven't listened to Rush in a long time because i'm off to racebook, but you know it but guess you keep repeating your nonsense cause you haven't got any thghts ofyour own to further the argument.

Russ, I gave you solutions and you like most libs would just rather whine. Don't you see the irony? Libs didn't want us to drill off the coast of Fl and now the Chinese are drilling off the coast of Cuba. That's only 90 miles away. And now, you want to go to war with Chinese over those wells instead of just drilling off the coast of Fl and Anwar and anywhere else there's oil?
France gets 78% of it's power from nuclear power plants.

Instead of oil wells the libs had rather blight the country with windmills which produce the energy of only a few barrels of oil per field. Libdiculous!

russowen77
04-28-2008, 12:33 AM
lbj, haven't listened to Rush in a long time because i'm off to racebook, but you know it but guess you keep repeating your nonsense cause you haven't got any thghts ofyour own to further the argument.

Russ, I gave you solutions and you like most libs would just rather whine. Don't you see the irony? Libs didn't want us to drill off the coast of Fl and now the Chinese are drilling off the coast of Cuba. That's only 90 miles away. And now, you want to go to war with Chinese over those wells instead of just drilling off the coast of Fl and Anwar and anywhere else there's oil?
France gets 78% of it's power from nuclear power plants.

Instead of oil wells the libs had rather blight the country with windmills which produce the energy of only a few barrels of oil per field. Libdiculous!
I am not a lib fyi. I think both our parties border on communist.

War with china. Give me a break. What are you smoking.

how much oil is off the Fl coast. At what depth?

Good for France. If that data is correct they are the most nuclear country in the world. It is sure lucky for them they are not in a high sesmic zone.

There is a lot more going on then windmills dude. Eventually folks are going to have to get their heads out of their collective b***s and figure out that oil and uranium is finite.

The idea that there is a painless way out of this is inane. trouble is no one really wants to start talking about reducing demand or developing several technologies to supply our power needs.

Well, I give you credit you answered exactly one question before you started calling folks names. That is one more than I expected.

Lefty
04-28-2008, 12:42 AM
I didn't say it was a painless way out, but it is a viable one. You're the one that suggested going in there and getting that oilfield from China. You don't think that would lead to a war?
FYI, your words sound liberal to me.
I presented what i thght were viable arguments. We have energy sources in abundance.
Now give me some of your solutions?

russowen77
04-28-2008, 01:06 AM
I didn't say it was a painless way out, but it is a viable one. You're the one that suggested going in there and getting that oilfield from China. You don't think that would lead to a war?
FYI, your words sound liberal to me.
I presented what i thght were viable arguments. We have energy sources in abundance.
Now give me some of your solutions?

No I don't think it would lead to war. It is called buisness and we could sure do a better job than the Chinese and Fidel is no longer in charge. BTW, China doesn't have the Navy to fight a war in our area of the world.

We don't have energy sources in abundance.

First I would reduce the number of federal workers by at least half. I have no clue what most of those workers give us as far as productivity goes and they love full sized cars and private jets.

I do like vertical algae farming. It gives about 20 times the amount of oil per acre than a crop like corn.

I would give serious tax credits for fuel cells, methane, and natural gas, and solar technologies.

I would develop tidal generators, especially since we are getting more ocean every day.

If that didn't work then I would ration fuel and let the folks that didn't use theres sell the excess. If folks want to fly around in private jets then they should pay a premium for it. No taxes on the sale.

To anyone that could devlop a reliable power source for vehicals that did not require I would give them a serious tax break for life.

First and foremost though I would seriously reduce the size of the fed. 75% would be much better than 50.

If all of those failed then I would probably start carpet bombing in Iraq, Iran , and Saudi Arabia and take their oil. Oh yea, Chavez also. --this part is total BS but I would sure think about it. I spent too much time there I guess.

ljb
04-28-2008, 01:14 AM
lbj, haven't listened to Rush in a long time because i'm off to racebook, but you know it but guess you keep repeating your nonsense cause you haven't got any thghts ofyour own to further the argument.

Russ, I gave you solutions and you like most libs would just rather whine. Don't you see the irony? Libs didn't want us to drill off the coast of Fl and now the Chinese are drilling off the coast of Cuba. That's only 90 miles away. And now, you want to go to war with Chinese over those wells instead of just drilling off the coast of Fl and Anwar and anywhere else there's oil?
France gets 78% of it's power from nuclear power plants.

Instead of oil wells the libs had rather blight the country with windmills which produce the energy of only a few barrels of oil per field. Libdiculous!
Lefty,
It is the Bush family that is restricting drilling off Fl. Don't kid yourself. Really makes no difference as Exxon has already stated their intent as to restricting production in order to maintain profit levels.

JustRalph
04-28-2008, 02:26 AM
Would you like to share with us your data on where all this oil is under our land and how much cost to extract it.

As far as nukes go, what do you want to do with all the wastes and please share with us the cost of securing them as they are perfect targets for terrorists. Especially since we have been nice enough to show them how to use copper correctly or at least share any new vessel designs.

Where to put them would also be nice as we sure can't locate them on any fault zone.

same ole bull. When it comes to nukes, These aren't problems. They could be taken care of easy.

There is oil available but the Left Wing eco-terrorists won't let it happen.

JustRalph
04-28-2008, 02:33 AM
responses in bold

Well, you didn't answer the questions. Cuba is not the US and you said we had plenty of oil here.

China is drilling in rented waters from Cuba. The same oil field extends into open waters and into the U.S. waters off the gulf. Yet we can't drill it. Try reading up on it.

We ship our waste to underground facilities mainly in Utah I think. The cost of that is going up because we have to guard it so well. One nice IED of suffeicent power and a large area of the US would be unusable. That is the reason so many states are suing to make sure it doesn't go there territory.

This is total crap. Security costs would be negligible when weighed against the opportunity Nuke power would provide. Where do you come up with this crap?

A nice dirty bomb and the terroists wouldn't even have to supply the "dirt".
Do you know anything about which you speak? Dirty Bombs aren't designed for the wholesale destruction you speak of.

You made the statements that all this would be so easy. All I was asking for was your data. You tell me China is drilling off of Cuba. I just don't see the relevance.

You can't see the relevance??? Are you blind???

http://www.sptimes.com/2006/05/08/Worldandnation/Cuba_seeks_oil_near_K.shtml

http://www.hyscience.com/archives/2006/07/cuba_and_china.php

http://www.americanfreepress.net/html/china_starts_oil_drilling.html

Where did you say you would put the reactors?

Also, I personally don't care what France does about anyting.

There is no knee jerk simple answer to this situation. None.
Could you be anymore obtuse on the Nuke issue? You could put reactors in tons of places. There are reactors out there now. When was the last time you heard of a meltdown?

JustRalph
04-28-2008, 02:36 AM
Lefty,
It is the Bush family that is restricting drilling off Fl. Don't kid yourself. Really makes no difference as Exxon has already stated their intent as to restricting production in order to maintain profit levels.


Florida Legislators are fighting it..............tourism, you know?

russowen77
04-28-2008, 08:33 AM
Florida Legislators are fighting it..............tourism, you know?
Thanks for the data on the oild field.

I know exactly what I am speaking of when it comes to dirty bombs. I was in special weapons for 13 years( mostly chems but we even had 8 inch nuke shells to deal with) .

To make a true nuke takes weapons grade plutonium. That is the reason they are so worried about the number of centrifuges Iran has at this time. The nuclear material has to be completely surrouned by explosives so there is enough compression to allow for a nuclear detonation. Removal of just one plate keeps the weapon from keeps the weapon from firing and it has the initial explosion has to be synched to nanoseconds.

A dirty bomb is not a nuclear weapon at all. There will be no classic mushroom cloud. It can me made from any explosive material that is surronded by radioactive material. nuclear waste is fine for making one. Nuclear waste is no where near pure enough to ever function as a true nuke but it will sure make large areas unlivable for decades.

We were dealing with hypothetical attacks on waste trains in the 80s. None of these actually included suicide bombers so the profiles now are much more diverse.

You ought to read up on it.

I would still love to hear where y'all want to put all these reactors. Since they can't be in California I assume you want other areas of the country to make them and ship power to the sesmic zones.

russowen77
04-28-2008, 08:42 AM
As far as China goes I sure don't see the relevance. They are vastly far behind us as a military nation and have little Navy which to speak of. They are also very far away not like the Russians who happen to be our nearest neighbor that does not actually border our country. This is not the old Cuban missile crisis days. They are posing to dominate the world allright and doing it economically.

If we are worried about Chinese oil companies drilling off of Cuba all we have to do is drop that stupid embargo and lets let our companies do buisness there. We have much more expertise in that area than the Chinese and are much closer to the support facilities.

I sure don't think that I am the blind one in that area. I am a capitalist and I think we could kick there butts in that area. Massive population and cheap labor does not help when it comes to oil. I guess you must think they are superior to us in every way but I sure don't.

ljb
04-28-2008, 10:00 AM
Florida Legislators are fighting it..............tourism, you know?
Yes i know the republicans in Florida are fighting it. Just wanted to get off lefty's railing against the "tree hugging libs".

chickenhead
04-28-2008, 03:30 PM
Chick,

My feeling is that the commonwealth sometimes requires intervention by government. The rise in energy costs are affecting home owners. The "perfect storm" of converging problems. More than just overvalued housing prices due for a correction.

Intervention has all sorts of side effects, such as easy money policy to prop up housing markets causing dollar to crater, causing input costs to go through the roof, causing people to go broke just trying to buy gas. It's all connected.

COnsumption growth will be less, and we'll save more. Debt can't rise faster than incomes for very long, as it has been. Just because something is painful, does not mean it is a bad thing. The bad thing already happened, but the bad thing was fun. Irresponsible spending is fun. Buying new stuff is fun. It's the remedy that is painful...but that isn't a reason to try to get out of it. It is necessary.

The only housing crisis I've seen, is the crisis of the last few years where houses were too farkin expensive relative to incomes. The readjustment is not a crisis, its the cure.

Not really different with gas prices. We need to get off the oil. That's not going to happen until it becomes too painful to keep on it. Bring the pain. We'll come out of it stronger.

Bring the pain.

Tom
04-28-2008, 03:41 PM
Pain?
$3.71 today.

Ouch, ow, ow,ow!

russowen77
04-28-2008, 03:59 PM
Pain?
$3.71 today.

Ouch, ow, ow,ow!
Sweet music to a lot of Texas ears. It all depends on what side of the aisle you are on.

chickenhead
04-28-2008, 04:17 PM
I'd actually support tacking a tax on top of gas prices...to fund a tax rebate on the purchase of fuel efficient vehicles. Put the petal to the metal, as it where, on reducing consumption.

You buy a 40mpg car, you get $4K. 50mpg, $5K. 100mpg, $10K.

100% offsetting, so you can't even accuse me of raising taxes, only possibly bad policy. :lol:

wonatthewire1
04-28-2008, 05:32 PM
I presented what i thght were viable arguments. We have energy sources in abundance.
Now give me some of your solutions?


keep prices high it is the only way that 'merkins are going to get the message. It is interesting to see how fast someone will "change" or realize that they actually don't need to be the only passenger in a 3.5 ton SUV to drive back and forth to work in an office at a maximum speed of 35mph (if they are lucky). That is what is going on here in NJ - the dealerships are swimming in traded in SUV's with nowhere to go except to a compactor.

We didn't learn in the '70's because prices stayed low - the only way to change a mindset is to make it expensive.

:kiss:

wonatthewire1
04-28-2008, 05:52 PM
and a biggie investor calling for a big recession

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080428/bs_nm/buffett_recession_dc

JustRalph
04-28-2008, 06:32 PM
keep prices high it is the only way that 'merkins are going to get the message. It is interesting to see how fast someone will "change" or realize that they actually don't need to be the only passenger in a 3.5 ton SUV to drive back and forth to work in an office at a maximum speed of 35mph (if they are lucky). That is what is going on here in NJ - the dealerships are swimming in traded in SUV's with nowhere to go except to a compactor.

We didn't learn in the '70's because prices stayed low - the only way to change a mindset is to make it expensive.

:kiss:

so you are cheering for high prices, so americans change? You totally ignore the fact that high prices on gasoline and diesel trickle down at the grocery store. Truckers don't have the choice of buying a hybrid or a Toyota Yaris to deliver goods. The resulting impact at the grocery store is enourmous.

Btw, why do you think you have the right to force "merikins" to change? Why do you think it is better that they ride around in cramped little cars instead of SUV's ? Just what is the benefit? You sound like you have a hard on for SUV"s?

chickenhead
04-28-2008, 06:52 PM
Why do you think it is better that they ride around in cramped little cars instead of SUV's ? Just what is the benefit?

Not directed to me, but to my line of thought it is.

It reduces our reliance on foreign governments, directly in regards to oil imports, and directly in reduced financing required for the trade deficit we run.

Self reliance is what we get in return for reduced consumption.

wonatthewire1
04-28-2008, 07:00 PM
Just what is the benefit? You sound like you have a hard on for SUV"s?


nah, no hard on for SUV's - I just simply don't like supporting the terrorists in the Middle East with American money for no reason except to drive something so wasteful with only one person in the vehicle.

Never will begrudge a guy (or lady) who needs to haul around tools to get a job done. Another story altogether for someone who needs a step ladder to drive a 3.5 ton SUV with only one occupant on roads where you can't get above 35MPH.

Talk about cost? Cut out the waste and you don't have to worry about the truckers or the food haulers. And you wouldn't have the roads as beat up as they are either with lighter cars on the road.

I don't know how big ya are, but we had 5 adults in a Scion over the weekend (averaging 33 MPG in mixed use driving) without a problem and more than 6" of extra headroom in the back

I didn't know you were a terrorist sympathizer? So keep filling up at 15MPG and don't cry about it...Osama loves you cuz you keep paying those sheiks.

Lefty
04-28-2008, 07:14 PM
Won, weget most of our oil from Mexico and Canada. It's Opec that sets the prices. We should be reaping our own resources instead of whining. Where's that commonsense plan Pelosi and the dims promised before they were elected. Why aren't you saying Nancy lied. Just wondering...

JustRalph
04-28-2008, 07:23 PM
So we all start riding mini bikes and driving smart cars because the left won't let us drill in ANWR or the Gulf of Mexico?

right, I get it.............. and I don't disagree with needing to be more self reliant.........but as long as we don't use all the resources available to us.......including ANWR and the Gulf............we are just tap dancing and forcing people to change into tiny cars for a political cause.

The fallacy of Ethanol is another thing that is a political cause that is costing us more than the excessive gas prices. You can pay it at the grocery store or the pump. Does it really matter?

russowen77
04-28-2008, 07:37 PM
So we all start riding mini bikes and driving smart cars because the left won't let us drill in ANWR or the Gulf of Mexico?

right, I get it.............. and I don't disagree with needing to be more self reliant.........but as long as we don't use all the resources available to us.......including ANWR and the Gulf............we are just tap dancing and forcing people to change into tiny cars for a political cause.

The fallacy of Ethanol is another thing that is a political cause that is costing us more than the excessive gas prices. You can pay it at the grocery store or the pump. Does it really matter?
Wow, we actually agree on something. Ethanol is not the answer at all. Now Algae is a whole different kettle of fish. We can grow that on non productive land as far as food crops are concerned.

And Dude, FL is not a left wing state one iota. We had six years of none Dem control and there was no drilling in the Gulf. How you can say that is the left is beyond me.

The first thing we need to do is reduce the size of the fed and get those folks off welfare. They need real jobs for a change.

Lefty
04-28-2008, 07:38 PM
JR, absolutely. And isn't using our own resources, i.e. Anwar etc., being self reliant?

Lefty
04-28-2008, 07:44 PM
Gov of Montana was just on Glenn Beck. He says Montana has 120 million tons of coal. That's one of our energy resources that russ says we don't have. Hmmmm...

chickenhead
04-28-2008, 07:47 PM
So we all start riding mini bikes and driving smart cars because the left won't let us drill in ANWR or the Gulf of Mexico?

The way I see it we are going to be riding mini bikes and driving smart cars no matter what you do with ANWR and the Gulf.

I'm all for building more refineries here in the US, I think its lame to import refined gasoline. But it's not like oil is going to voila be magically much cheaper if you drill ANWR. OPEC can throttle back production if they so wished to keep prices whatever they want them to be.

It's not like the oil in ANWR is going to turn sour. It is there, we own it, it will be there until we use it all up. Consider it a big underground storage basin. Nothing wrong with that. I like the idea of keeping a little something in reserve. It's not like those reindeer are drinking it and we have to beat them to it.

That said, I could go either way. But, to play the hand conservatively is my nature.

wonatthewire1
04-28-2008, 08:02 PM
Won, weget most of our oil from Mexico and Canada. It's Opec that sets the prices. We should be reaping our own resources instead of whining. Where's that commonsense plan Pelosi and the dims promised before they were elected. Why aren't you saying Nancy lied. Just wondering...

couldn't care less about Nancy - she is a speck on the face of the earth and a dimacrat politician as well - if she's breathing she's lying...

You do tend to throw out a lot of opinions as fact when that can be easily refuted. Our number one oil import partner is Canada (agreed) but number two is Saudia Arabia. This information is directly from the current Repuke Dept of Energy (http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html)

Interestingly, the commies in Venezuela are #5 and the numbers are current; not from 14 years ago which is a common practice by both sides of the spectrum here. Man, we sure are giving that Chavez guy a lot of money to drive around in 3.5 ton SUV's without any other occupants. When I actually need to have a truck I rent it the two times a year for the total of 4 days that I need it - not to drive to work on perfectly fine roads.

Not saying anything about not developing our own resources - but the real solution is learning to do without so much waste in our society. There are many in our society that couldn't care less and will continue to waste - then cry that their kids and grandkids can't get out from under all the waste that we have in America. Just as you have decried the waste that is spent on govt programs, we could all do with a lot less energy and do just fine.

>Saw the quote about the governor of MT, must have been difficult to weigh all that coal without getting it out of the ground...!<

OPEC only barely controls output of their member nations - it is not much of an "organization" these days.

wonatthewire1
04-28-2008, 08:09 PM
we are just tap dancing and forcing people to change into tiny cars for a political cause.

where are the "lefties" holding a gun to your head to buy a tiny car - and what constitutes a tiny car?

Yaris - agreed it is tiny! A Chevy Malibu gets over 30 on average - not a bad sized car. (interestingly, Toyota just became the biggest car company, but they are heading in the wrong direction with overall size of their vehicles)

The only gun being held to the 'merkins head is the one attached to the gas pump - one can keep shooting their foot or practically crying...the car dealership lots are enough evidence for me to see that people are waking up & realizing that they don't need the extra expense to sit in bumper to bumper traffic here in the northeast.

Need a truck for a weekend? Rent one. Need a truck to run your carpentry business - got no qualms with that. But if you're going to waste a resource that is finite, feel free to pay for it...but don't be complaining, we only created the situation on ourselves.

Lefty
04-28-2008, 08:32 PM
The only way we created this situation is not using our own resources many many yrs ago. The world is using more energy and now it's time for ust to get at those resources. Oil in Anwar and both our coasts. Vast coal deposits in Montana alone. Time for Congress to get on the stick.

ljb
04-28-2008, 09:02 PM
The only way we created this situation is not using our own resources many many yrs ago. The world is using more energy and now it's time for ust to get at those resources. Oil in Anwar and both our coasts. Vast coal deposits in Montana alone. Time for Congress to get on the stick.
And here all the time I thought you were a free market individual.

chickenhead
04-28-2008, 09:18 PM
The only way we created this situation is not using our own resources many many yrs ago. The world is using more energy and now it's time for ust to get at those resources. Oil in Anwar and both our coasts. Vast coal deposits in Montana alone. Time for Congress to get on the stick.

We didn't create the situation, it exists on it's own. There is only so much oil that can be gotten too cheaply. The cost should be going up over time.

PaceAdvantage
04-28-2008, 09:45 PM
and a biggie investor calling for a big recession

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080428/bs_nm/buffett_recession_dc

Hmmmm....interesting quote by Buffett:

"This is not a field of specialty for me, but my general feeling is that the recession will be longer and deeper than most people think," Buffett said. "This will not be short and shallow.So when McCain says Economics is not his field of specialty (military and foreign policy are) he gets nailed, but when Buffett says it, he gets quoted and tossed around like some pillar of truth and knowledge.

Funny how that works.

Oh, and thanks for the link to the story. Hopefully, Buffett is wrong.

Lefty
04-28-2008, 09:55 PM
ahh, lbj, always shooting off your typing finger and saying things that don'tmake a lick of sense.

JustRalph
04-28-2008, 11:07 PM
Sometimes it is what it is............and the Oracle of Omaha is just an old man in a bad suit................. with a little luck..........no doubt :lol:

hcap
04-29-2008, 07:15 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/29/business/29econ-web.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/04/29/business/0430-biz-WEBECON-ConsumerCo.gif

Consumer Confidence Slips as Home Prices Drop

"The reports were consistent with a recession, economists said, though some optimists have insisted the economy is growing, albeit at a snail’s pace. President Bush remained in the latter camp at a news conference on Tuesday, where he said the economy was facing “a tough time.”

Much of the damage has stemmed from a slump in the housing market, where prices are nearly 15 percent off their high in July 2006.

In the 12 months ended in February, the Case-Shiller home price index, which measures the value of single-family homes in 10 major metropolitan regions, fell 13.6 percent, the biggest decline since records began in 1987. A broader 20-city index dropped 12.7 percent.

The slump in home prices was more severe than the worst point of the recession of the 1990s, the last time values fell so far, so quickly.

Lefty
04-29-2008, 08:24 PM
h'cap, you needed links and graphs to figure out the obvious. Consumer confidence always goes quickly when things aren't going swimmingly.

ljb
04-30-2008, 01:13 AM
h'cap, you needed links and graphs to figure out the obvious. Consumer confidence always goes quickly when things aren't going swimmingly.
Lefty,
Are you saying after years of Repug control things are not going swimmingly ? Wow must have missed your Rush *fix today.
* not to be confused with Rush's drug addiction, a completely different story. :lol:

Lefty
04-30-2008, 01:27 AM
How dense are you? I get about ten min of Rush every morn before i leave. Things went well for yrs under this admin. He kept the economy going disaster after disaster. He's kept the country safe from more terrorist attacks; no thanks to your dim friends. But it only takes a little bit of bad news to have the public "jump ship" and the lib press never misses a chance to report any bad news while they put a negative spin on the good economy and any good news coming out of Iraq.
Thanks to your dim buddies who have stopped us from using our own resources for over 30 yrs now, and the dims refusal to back bush's energy plan, our gas is now at an all time high and it's affecting everything and i lay most of it at the feet of the dims. And btw, where is that commonsense "gas fix" Pelosi promised, hmmm?

Lefty
04-30-2008, 01:32 AM
BTW, I may not get the chance to listen to Rush anymore but I see you still are getting your fixes from the libdiculous huffington post and moveon.ugh.
And to keep mentioning Rush's former prescription drug problem that was brought on by pain, you show yourself to be a condescending insensitive, lib whose bulb is flickering.

PaceAdvantage
04-30-2008, 03:22 AM
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/04/29/business/0430-biz-WEBECON-ConsumerCo.gif

Consumer Confidence Slips as Home Prices DropWhat Hcap meant to post was that Consumer Confidence came in HIGHER than expected this week.....

BIG ECONOMIC day today (Wednsday):

Apr 30 08:15 ADP Employment
Apr 30 08:30 GDP-Adv.
Apr 30 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv.
Apr 30 08:30 Employment Cost Index
Apr 30 09:45 Chicago PMI
Apr 30 10:30 Crude Inventories
Apr 30 14:15 FOMC Policy Statement

hcap
04-30-2008, 06:42 AM
The consumer confidence number has dropped 28 points in just four months.
This week may buck the trend-( your links are not working-and I can't check )
But overall not good. A momentary glimmer of hope.

PaceAdvantage
04-30-2008, 09:11 AM
Links were not working, so I removed.....here's a good source for all major economic releases....


http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm