melman
04-01-2008, 10:38 AM
I think the people who look at PA's board will enjoy reading this article by Bob Pandolfo. It's his recap of a weekend in his "Grand Adventure" series that he is doing for the folks at ustrotting.com. Some good stuff on "exotic" betting vs win or win place betting and just the general run of things that happen to a regular player. He also points out just how difficult it is for the public handicapper who has to make his posted bets so far in advance with no shot at the live odds. I did ask Bob for permission to post this and he gave the OK as long as I mention that it is from the UStrotting.com web site.
Grand Adventure Weekend Wrap-up 03-21-08
Grand Adventure weekend #27 was exciting. I hit a cold streak for a while which wiped out my profit, but I came back the past few weeks and this week I passed my prior highest balance so the bankroll is at an all-time high.
I had a total of 5 plays, 4 at the Meadowlands and one at Balmoral, so I guess I’m not a half-mile specialist after all. 3 of the 5 horses won but I cashed in 4 of the 5 races. I have been getting increasingly more aggressive in recent weeks, betting more money per race and putting more money into exotics than win bets. The weekend started out in the 4th race at the Meadowlands Friday night. Likeabatoutahell was coming off back to back breaks. I don’t mind betting trotters off breaks as long as I feel the horse is a quality horse, from a good barn. This horse is trained by the great trotting trainer and Hambo winner, Trond Smedshammer. I’ve hit a lot of overlays on horses coming off breaks because the public tends to under-bet them, but in this case, Likeabatoutahell went off lower than expected at 3-5. He was 2nd over and was coming on strongly in the lane when he broke again. I would’ve had a $4 exacta box hit with the $12.40 winner, who was my 2nd choice. So, the weekend started badly.
Next up was another trotter, the classy Euro Hanover in the 7th at the Meadowlands. Some harness handicapping books state that you shouldn’t bet trotters. I could see passing 2yo trotting races, but as a general rule, I like trotters. If a horse breaks once in a while and wins 40% of his starts, how is that different than a horse that doesn’t break and wins 40% of his starts? Anyway, Euro Hanover jogged and paid $4.20. I had $24.00 to win on him and I hit the $17.20 exacta for $2.00. In the next race I bet Counterfeit Kiwi N and he won and paid $7.00. I had the $52 trifecta and the $20.00 exacta but nothing to win on the overlay. At this point I could’ve questioned my decision to play this race “exotics only” but I didn’t. My experience has been that things even out over the long run, and exotics generally offer better returns than win, place, or show. Counterfeit Kiwi N is a classy horse trained by a top veteran trainer, Ross Croghan. He got a nice drive by Eric Goodell. One of the reasons why I’ve been concentrating more on the Meadowlands and Yonkers for the Adventure is that when I was in a bad streak I got several bad drives. In my opinion, the Meadowlands and Yonkers have the best driver colonies, so you are less likely to lose because of a poor drive.
On Saturday night I had two plays. Free De Vie came through at $6.40, from post 10, off a nifty drive by Brian Sears. Thoroughbred pace handicappers like to look for “new pace tops” or “new career tops” and this horse met both criteria off his monster effort the week before. When a lightly raced horse (Free De Vie had only raced 14 times coming into this race) surges forward on pace and speed figures, it’s a sign that he is rapidly maturing and ready for a smasher. Yes, the same pace principles that thoroughbred handicappers use work just as well, if not better, for Harness Racing. I thought Free De Vie was pretty much a lock but I didn’t want to build him up too much to protect the odds. As it was, I gave the horse out on The Grand Adventure, he was my Best Bet on the free Meadowlands picks on this site; he was one of my Best Bets that I gave my subscribers at trotpicks.com, and I made him my Preferred Play on the most popular and longest published tip sheet in New York (also sold in Connecticut), Clocker Lawton. Talk about killing my price! By the way, from time to time I get calls or emails from people asking me who I “really” like. They don’t believe that I give out my Best plays because “you’ll kill your price.” Uh, folks, I’m a professional handicapper. If I held back my best picks that would be like a wine maker keeping the best vintage for himself and selling his wine that didn’t come out that good. He wouldn’t be in business very long.
Free De Vie left from post 10 and tucked improving position on the first turn, moved out behind cover down the backstretch but had to tuck back in when his cover went nowhere. Sears then slipped out on the final turn, angled wide and the razor sharp 4yo finished strongly to get up. This was a great drive by Brian Sears. The thing that hurt me in this race was the lucky trip that the 7 horse had. When the outside horses all pulled down the backstretch, Ron Pierce alertly gunned Allamerican Idol up along the rail and he finished 2nd. That killed my exacta and trifecta bets, although I did have $20 to win on Free De Vie.
An interesting side note, some of the top horses in the sport met in the 7th race Saturday night. The toughest thing about doing The Grand Adventure, and being a professional handicapper, is that I don’t know what the final odds are going to be. In this race, I picked Mr Feelgood to win and made him 2-1 on my line. I also had the $78.80 exacta cold when Mr. Feelgood won and paid $10.00. My 2nd pick was Special Report, who went off at a ridiculous 14-1. The odds were bizarre in this race. Mr. Feelgood had already won the two biggest Free For All races of the year, The Presidential at the Meadowlands and the Isle of Capri at Pompano. He’s the King of the Hill right now until someone beats him. I don’t know how this horse wasn’t the favorite Saturday night. The public bet Manhardt down to 3-5. Yes, Manhardt was on a winning streak, but not against the best horses. I picked Manhardt 4th and the trifecta paid $165.80. Special Report ran 2nd as my 2nd pick, and was 14-1, which again was weird because, well, he’s Special Report. This is a horse that’s not hurt by the outside post as much as most horses because he has unbelievable gate speed. Last summer at Yonkers, I saw this horse leave from post 8 and get the lead on the first turn, which is amazing when you consider the fact the race starts right in front of the first turn at Yonkers
Again, this is the toughest thing about being a public handicapper. Yes, I picked this race correctly, but had I known what the odds would’ve been, I would’ve bet it on my Grand Adventure. Fortunately, I watched the race and was able to get a bet down. I think this race is proof that if you really want to win, you have to watch the odds and bet late on the overlays. It’s much tougher to show a profit on paper picking a day or two in advance than it is making decisions right before post time after viewing the final odds.
I love watching the top older horses. To me, Free For All trotters and pacers put on the best show. I wish there were a lot less 2yo races so that more horses could stick around and race when they are fully mature.
Saturday night, I had one more bet, the 9th race at Balmoral. Coming into this race, I was actually down $16.40 on the weekend even though I had 75% winners because I had put more money into the exotics than the win pool. But that happens and you just have to hope that you make it up in another race. I did. My key horse at Balmoral went off at 7-2, cut the mile as expected but finished 2nd. This time the exotic wagers paid off. I hit the $106.60 exacta and the $461.20 trifecta (for $1), for a return of $337.20. This bet more than made up for the other races, and shows the power of exotic wagers because it was my most profitable race of the weekend even though my horse lost. Had I bet all the money to win in each race, my $220 worth of wagers would’ve returned $382.80. But my $220 wagers actually returned $540.80, so I made an extra $158 of profit by playing the exactas and trifectas instead of just to win.
After 27 weeks, my prime plays are 59 for 155 (38%). My sub-prime (smaller win bets) are 4 for 11 and profitable so my overall win percentage is 38%. The exactas and trifectas are showing a nice profit. I’ve shown a profit in 16 of 27 weeks. The current balance is the highest it’s ever been since the series started.
Totals for weekend twenty seven looked like this:
Total wagered: $220.00
Total returned $540.80
Total won: $320.80
Twenty seven week totals:
Opening balance: $1,000
Total wagered: $4305.00
Total returned: $5000.80
Current balance: $1695.80
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Grand Adventure Weekend Wrap-up 03-21-08
Grand Adventure weekend #27 was exciting. I hit a cold streak for a while which wiped out my profit, but I came back the past few weeks and this week I passed my prior highest balance so the bankroll is at an all-time high.
I had a total of 5 plays, 4 at the Meadowlands and one at Balmoral, so I guess I’m not a half-mile specialist after all. 3 of the 5 horses won but I cashed in 4 of the 5 races. I have been getting increasingly more aggressive in recent weeks, betting more money per race and putting more money into exotics than win bets. The weekend started out in the 4th race at the Meadowlands Friday night. Likeabatoutahell was coming off back to back breaks. I don’t mind betting trotters off breaks as long as I feel the horse is a quality horse, from a good barn. This horse is trained by the great trotting trainer and Hambo winner, Trond Smedshammer. I’ve hit a lot of overlays on horses coming off breaks because the public tends to under-bet them, but in this case, Likeabatoutahell went off lower than expected at 3-5. He was 2nd over and was coming on strongly in the lane when he broke again. I would’ve had a $4 exacta box hit with the $12.40 winner, who was my 2nd choice. So, the weekend started badly.
Next up was another trotter, the classy Euro Hanover in the 7th at the Meadowlands. Some harness handicapping books state that you shouldn’t bet trotters. I could see passing 2yo trotting races, but as a general rule, I like trotters. If a horse breaks once in a while and wins 40% of his starts, how is that different than a horse that doesn’t break and wins 40% of his starts? Anyway, Euro Hanover jogged and paid $4.20. I had $24.00 to win on him and I hit the $17.20 exacta for $2.00. In the next race I bet Counterfeit Kiwi N and he won and paid $7.00. I had the $52 trifecta and the $20.00 exacta but nothing to win on the overlay. At this point I could’ve questioned my decision to play this race “exotics only” but I didn’t. My experience has been that things even out over the long run, and exotics generally offer better returns than win, place, or show. Counterfeit Kiwi N is a classy horse trained by a top veteran trainer, Ross Croghan. He got a nice drive by Eric Goodell. One of the reasons why I’ve been concentrating more on the Meadowlands and Yonkers for the Adventure is that when I was in a bad streak I got several bad drives. In my opinion, the Meadowlands and Yonkers have the best driver colonies, so you are less likely to lose because of a poor drive.
On Saturday night I had two plays. Free De Vie came through at $6.40, from post 10, off a nifty drive by Brian Sears. Thoroughbred pace handicappers like to look for “new pace tops” or “new career tops” and this horse met both criteria off his monster effort the week before. When a lightly raced horse (Free De Vie had only raced 14 times coming into this race) surges forward on pace and speed figures, it’s a sign that he is rapidly maturing and ready for a smasher. Yes, the same pace principles that thoroughbred handicappers use work just as well, if not better, for Harness Racing. I thought Free De Vie was pretty much a lock but I didn’t want to build him up too much to protect the odds. As it was, I gave the horse out on The Grand Adventure, he was my Best Bet on the free Meadowlands picks on this site; he was one of my Best Bets that I gave my subscribers at trotpicks.com, and I made him my Preferred Play on the most popular and longest published tip sheet in New York (also sold in Connecticut), Clocker Lawton. Talk about killing my price! By the way, from time to time I get calls or emails from people asking me who I “really” like. They don’t believe that I give out my Best plays because “you’ll kill your price.” Uh, folks, I’m a professional handicapper. If I held back my best picks that would be like a wine maker keeping the best vintage for himself and selling his wine that didn’t come out that good. He wouldn’t be in business very long.
Free De Vie left from post 10 and tucked improving position on the first turn, moved out behind cover down the backstretch but had to tuck back in when his cover went nowhere. Sears then slipped out on the final turn, angled wide and the razor sharp 4yo finished strongly to get up. This was a great drive by Brian Sears. The thing that hurt me in this race was the lucky trip that the 7 horse had. When the outside horses all pulled down the backstretch, Ron Pierce alertly gunned Allamerican Idol up along the rail and he finished 2nd. That killed my exacta and trifecta bets, although I did have $20 to win on Free De Vie.
An interesting side note, some of the top horses in the sport met in the 7th race Saturday night. The toughest thing about doing The Grand Adventure, and being a professional handicapper, is that I don’t know what the final odds are going to be. In this race, I picked Mr Feelgood to win and made him 2-1 on my line. I also had the $78.80 exacta cold when Mr. Feelgood won and paid $10.00. My 2nd pick was Special Report, who went off at a ridiculous 14-1. The odds were bizarre in this race. Mr. Feelgood had already won the two biggest Free For All races of the year, The Presidential at the Meadowlands and the Isle of Capri at Pompano. He’s the King of the Hill right now until someone beats him. I don’t know how this horse wasn’t the favorite Saturday night. The public bet Manhardt down to 3-5. Yes, Manhardt was on a winning streak, but not against the best horses. I picked Manhardt 4th and the trifecta paid $165.80. Special Report ran 2nd as my 2nd pick, and was 14-1, which again was weird because, well, he’s Special Report. This is a horse that’s not hurt by the outside post as much as most horses because he has unbelievable gate speed. Last summer at Yonkers, I saw this horse leave from post 8 and get the lead on the first turn, which is amazing when you consider the fact the race starts right in front of the first turn at Yonkers
Again, this is the toughest thing about being a public handicapper. Yes, I picked this race correctly, but had I known what the odds would’ve been, I would’ve bet it on my Grand Adventure. Fortunately, I watched the race and was able to get a bet down. I think this race is proof that if you really want to win, you have to watch the odds and bet late on the overlays. It’s much tougher to show a profit on paper picking a day or two in advance than it is making decisions right before post time after viewing the final odds.
I love watching the top older horses. To me, Free For All trotters and pacers put on the best show. I wish there were a lot less 2yo races so that more horses could stick around and race when they are fully mature.
Saturday night, I had one more bet, the 9th race at Balmoral. Coming into this race, I was actually down $16.40 on the weekend even though I had 75% winners because I had put more money into the exotics than the win pool. But that happens and you just have to hope that you make it up in another race. I did. My key horse at Balmoral went off at 7-2, cut the mile as expected but finished 2nd. This time the exotic wagers paid off. I hit the $106.60 exacta and the $461.20 trifecta (for $1), for a return of $337.20. This bet more than made up for the other races, and shows the power of exotic wagers because it was my most profitable race of the weekend even though my horse lost. Had I bet all the money to win in each race, my $220 worth of wagers would’ve returned $382.80. But my $220 wagers actually returned $540.80, so I made an extra $158 of profit by playing the exactas and trifectas instead of just to win.
After 27 weeks, my prime plays are 59 for 155 (38%). My sub-prime (smaller win bets) are 4 for 11 and profitable so my overall win percentage is 38%. The exactas and trifectas are showing a nice profit. I’ve shown a profit in 16 of 27 weeks. The current balance is the highest it’s ever been since the series started.
Totals for weekend twenty seven looked like this:
Total wagered: $220.00
Total returned $540.80
Total won: $320.80
Twenty seven week totals:
Opening balance: $1,000
Total wagered: $4305.00
Total returned: $5000.80
Current balance: $1695.80
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