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View Full Version : My new Derby horse is Big Brown


pktruckdriver
03-31-2008, 10:34 AM
After the Florida Derby I am now ready to feel we have seen a legitimate Derby Canidate, and he is Big Brown.

Now not seeing Denis of Cork yet this year, I am still holding my judgement, but Big Brown definetly moved past all others for sure. Pyro and War Pass have not shown the Speed #'s to prove to be a Derby Winner, But whatever Big Brown did this weekend, I'm sure they were finally up to par of a Derby Winner.


Just want to know how other's see this scenario playing out.


Patrick

Marshall Bennett
03-31-2008, 10:43 AM
I like his chances a lot . Doesn't appear to need the perfect trip Pyro may need to win the derby . With a good break he could hang close to the lead and have the finishing speed to do the job . Don't beleive the extra furlong will be an issue . :cool:

santanajimi
03-31-2008, 10:54 AM
It seems pretty obvious that the BIG BROWN bus is loading up. Off that performance, what was not to like?
I would imagine that there are a few scenarios that would make you possibly change your mind though. If War Pass runs some monster race , wire to wire.,this coming weekend.
Well then that would set up a potentiaal speed dual in the Derby. War pass has one way to go, as we most know.
Can BBrown sit off that speed ?
Is there any other speed signed up for the Derby ?
I was super impressed with BB....but i wont make my pick atleast till i see how the next couple of weeks shake out.
After getting burned a few years ago with the scratch of BUDDHA the day of the race...i am a little more patient.

GaryG
03-31-2008, 11:10 AM
I have watched him closely and he looks as if he can be rated. I don't think he is a one-dimensional front runner. The main issue will be if he can stand the strenuous campaign.

ArlJim78
03-31-2008, 11:22 AM
I think we're going to see that lack of foundation/experience will be the undoing of Big Brown in the derby, despite the fact that his Fla Derby was easily the most impressive prep of the year. Its a tall order to progress that far that fast, and his bobbing and weaving down the lane at Gulfstream just might indicate that he needs some time.

Robert Fischer
03-31-2008, 11:31 AM
Brown is the best of the crop, and probably would have won the Kentucky Derby last saturday.
His feet still have to stay healthy.

I don't really like Pyro as a Derby win candidate although he has just gotten stronger and stronger. Looked a little bit small at first, but Asmussen has him so nice. Really put together perfectly right now. However the same way you might oppose a 6 furlong closer stretching out to go a mile and a sixteenth... Pyro is a closing miler, and he is going to stretch out to 10 furlongs for the derby. I really have doubts about Pyro in the Bluegrass. Pyro is such a good closing miler that he should be relatively close in the derby - he won't be embarrassed.
Right now I like is Big Brown,Pyro,Georgie Boy, and Big Truck...
Denis of Cork is right on the fringe and I am leaning toward outsider - not sure if he is a strong 10 furlong horse or simply another pretty nice mile/16th horse. His final prep will hopefully give some hints. Court Vision is kind of "looming" in the picture, he may well contend if no one like Brown runs off with it / and wouldn't suffer from a strong pace either.

Charlie D
03-31-2008, 11:37 AM
Unlike last year with horses like Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun,Any Give Saturday. I've not seen a horse yet that makes that me think or gives me the feeling of , yep, Derby winner, Derby 2nd, Derby 3rd.

jonnielu
03-31-2008, 11:52 AM
After the Florida Derby I am now ready to feel we have seen a legitimate Derby Canidate, and he is Big Brown.

Now not seeing Denis of Cork yet this year, I am still holding my judgement, but Big Brown definetly moved past all others for sure. Pyro and War Pass have not shown the Speed #'s to prove to be a Derby Winner, But whatever Big Brown did this weekend, I'm sure they were finally up to par of a Derby Winner.


Just want to know how other's see this scenario playing out.


Patrick

It's March 31st, if you don't have a good Belmont horse in your scope yet, you probably don't have a Derby winner.

Biggest problem is that Pyro might be a good Belmont horse. But, so might a few others, the Big's, Cool Coal Man, Smooth Air... You can't count WP out yet. He's still hanging on the bottom edge of the list.

jdl

jdl

pktruckdriver
03-31-2008, 12:05 PM
I am not privy yet to Big Browns beyer number yet, anyone know?

Yes BB must stay healthy, no doubt about it, all of them do. But BB was really the best I've seen so far, overcoming so much in that race and winning in the way that he did, very impressive indeed.

And yes others have yet to run this year, and others have choked too, but none are putting up the Beyer's that I'm sure BB did, thats all I saying.

Smooth Air was very impressive 2nd too, and yes he could improve also, don't leave him out, still think he got rode badly though, he shoulda been closer than he was, but that's just my opinion.

Patrick

Charlie D
03-31-2008, 12:42 PM
I am not privy yet to Big Browns beyer number yet, anyone know?




http://www.drf.com/stakeresults/drfStakeResults.jsp

Stevie Belmont
03-31-2008, 12:52 PM
BB went from 11 to number 1 on my Derby list. It was a very strong effort. Distance is no issue.

Kelso
03-31-2008, 02:40 PM
In the quick shot ESPN2 showed of his Fountain of Youth finish, he appeared to have a Curlin-like configuration ... sort of "strong, like bull." Was I mistaken?

cj
03-31-2008, 04:40 PM
Beyer of 106.

ny0707ny
03-31-2008, 06:41 PM
Guys this is the same setup with Curlin. He ran 3 times before the Derby and he lost. Curlin got a 103 speed figure his last race before Derby.

He was too green I said last year to win. This horse is even more green. War Pass will have the edge on him still.

Has any horse won the Derby on 3 starts in his life only?

Semipro
03-31-2008, 08:07 PM
Has any horse since won from 12 hole since track reconfiguration 2005 so he already bucked history once. Talent supersedes foundation/experience and Big Brown is special. I have thought other horses were special that lost the Derby Holy Bull would be at the top of that list but make no mistake Brown is the horse to beat. Unlike a lot of others I haven't stuck the fork in WP but I did pull it out of the drawer.

bellsbendboy
03-31-2008, 08:16 PM
Big Brown is a freak but has little chance to win the Ky. derby. BBB

Semipro
03-31-2008, 08:34 PM
Big Brown is a freak but has little chance to win the Ky. derby. BBBI sure hope the masses agree with you.

whyhorseofcourse
03-31-2008, 08:53 PM
IMHO he had the best horse in the race but he was facing soft company.

If he doesnt race any more until the kentucky derby he will be in the same boat as big truck and pyro. Overbet on derby day.

jonnielu
03-31-2008, 09:05 PM
Big Brown is a freak but has little chance to win the Ky. derby. BBB

I'd really like to hear your analysis that backs that up. Please don't be shy, you've got a month to tweak it.

jdl

ny0707ny
03-31-2008, 09:16 PM
The huge drawback he will have is that he didn't face anybody good at all. Even War Pass faced far better competition and in the Wood he will face another good test.

My gut tells me he is far too green to win a Derby but we will see. This weekend will tell a lot more after we see War Pass.

jonnielu
03-31-2008, 11:13 PM
The huge drawback he will have is that he didn't face anybody good at all. Even War Pass faced far better competition and in the Wood he will face another good test.

My gut tells me he is far too green to win a Derby but we will see. This weekend will tell a lot more after we see War Pass.

It's these figure fanatics, they want to jump on the first three digit number that comes along, maybe I should give them Smooth Air's corrected figure. You know, I don't like 'em, but I know how to correct 'em.

jdl

russowen77
03-31-2008, 11:57 PM
I don't have a clue at this point about BB due to his health.

IMO, though if they are stupid enough to run War Pass in the KY derby we will end then we will find out if he can really rate or if he is really a truley great horse because then we will see how well he does under pressure.

It is too bad FW bailed because if he hadn't we would know much more about BB.

If he does manage to win the first two then we should see real greatness. he was bred for the Belmont. It always amuses me when folks think a closer is better at the 1 1/2 at Belmont. I know the stat folks will probably prove me wrong but that is my observation with no real data.

pandy
04-01-2008, 12:10 AM
Has any horse since won from 12 hole since track reconfiguration 2005 so he already bucked history once. Talent supersedes foundation/experience and Big Brown is special. I have thought other horses were special that lost the Derby Holy Bull would be at the top of that list but make no mistake Brown is the horse to beat. Unlike a lot of others I haven't stuck the fork in WP but I did pull it out of the drawer.

Horses rarely get enough credit when they cross over from an outside post to either get early position or go for the lead in two turn routes, especially at races 9 furlongs or longer. It takes a lot of energy to cross over because the horse is not only travelling further than horses on the inside, but has to accelerate early in the race. The Big Brown Florida Derby, for instance, he passed the entire field from the start to the midway point on the turn and that burst of speed will cost most thoroughbreds the race. It takes an exceptional racehorse to win a GR1 or 2 race after making that early move. Big Brown is a monster, but all of these horses that show superstar potential have been disappointing due to various ailments or injuries. Let's hope he stays sound enough.

Charlie D
04-01-2008, 01:48 AM
The Big Brown Florida Derby, for instance, he passed the entire field from the start to the midway point on the turn


About 3 secs in, 2 horses already losing ground, 6 secs in, 6 horses losing ground, giving posts 11 and 12 a great opportunity to get across from their car park posts into running lanes about 5, 6 wide before bend even comes into play.

I'm surprised K Desormeaux and J Valasqez didn't fall off thier mounts with laughter :)

rastajenk
04-01-2008, 10:11 AM
Guys this is the same setup with Curlin. He ran 3 times before the Derby and he lost. Curlin got a 103 speed figure his last race before Derby.He was too green I said last year to win. This horse is even more green. War Pass will have the edge on him still. Has any horse won the Derby on 3 starts in his life only?

This is the Decade of Smashed Templates. Every year a different elimination method gets thrown under the bus. Geldings, Juvie winners, slow ones, five week layoffs, unproven front-runners, late developers....with so many important preps left, I'm not claiming here The Brown will win, but I certainly wouldn't rule him out based on historical implications. If Curlin was too green to win the Derby, how was it he prevailed in the Preakness two weeks later? What's fourteen days, really? It's very possible that Big Brown can catch a very weak Derby field and crush them mercilessly.

pandy
04-01-2008, 10:34 AM
This is the Decade of Smashed Templates. Every year a different elimination method gets thrown under the bus. Geldings, Juvie winners, slow ones, five week layoffs, unproven front-runners, late developers....with so many important preps left, I'm not claiming here The Brown will win, but I certainly wouldn't rule him out based on historical implications. If Curlin was too green to win the Derby, how was it he prevailed in the Preakness two weeks later? What's fourteen days, really? It's very possible that Big Brown can catch a very weak Derby field and crush them mercilessly.


I agree, rules are constantly broken, especially when it comes to the Derby. Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, and War Emblem were all horses that pedigree experts said couldn't win the Derby.

Bruddah
04-01-2008, 11:16 AM
Big Brown is a freak but has little chance to win the Ky. derby. BBB
According to my personal Derby figures, Big Brown won't be able to get the Derby distance with any early pressure. Since, he is the best of what we've seen so far this year, this makes the Derby wide open. All of these will be "puking the bit" after 1 1/8m. That includes Pyro.

Personally, I don't think Big Brown has the foundation under him. Also, he peaked with his 106 Beyer, in the Fl. Derby. (JMHO)

pandy
04-01-2008, 12:11 PM
According to my personal Derby figures, Big Brown won't be able to get the Derby distance with any early pressure. Since, he is the best of what we've seen so far this year, this makes the Derby wide open. All of these will be "puking the bit" after 1 1/8m. That includes Pyro.

Personally, I don't think Big Brown has the foundation under him. Also, he peaked with his 106 Beyer, in the Fl. Derby. (JMHO)

What type of figures, pedigree or speed?

cj
04-01-2008, 12:26 PM
Once a horse destroys a field in one of the big preps, proclaiming him your Derby horse is probably a little late. Unless, of course, you prefer the taste of chalk.

Semipro
04-01-2008, 01:08 PM
Must have been the Ben Franklin seasoning that made that chalk taste so good last Sat.

joanied
04-01-2008, 02:02 PM
This horse is pretty awesome...but no one has mentioned his feet. He wore special shoes ($525.00 a pair) and considering the Churchill surface, he may be a hurting horse in the Derby...if he can overcome his tootsies hurting, he'll be right there...along with Big Truck, who I like a lot.
I thin this weekend will shed a lot of light on the Derby horses...and I do hope War Pass shows up this time.

john del riccio
04-01-2008, 02:13 PM
Once a horse destroys a field in one of the big preps, proclaiming him your Derby horse is probably a little late. Unless, of course, you prefer the taste of chalk.

CJ,

War Emblem tasted great !:jump:

John

cj
04-01-2008, 02:19 PM
The Illinois Derby isn't the type I was talking about. I was a big fan of War Emblem and even picked him here on the site in the Ill Derby, the Derby, and the Preakness.

Wickel
04-01-2008, 03:37 PM
This fascination with Big Brown is like the Bellamy Road experience all over again-monster prep win, big Beyer number and lots of press. All I can say is beware. Someone is going to have to put pressure on War Pass in the Derby or else it's over. And I'm not so sure Big Brown will be that horse. I foresee Brown and several others pressing War Pass to be cooked after three-quarters, setting things up for Pyro, Colonel John, Visionaire (I was desperately hoping to insert Georgie Boy in here!). But who know; we have a long month to go, and maybe someone like Monba or Z Humor will bounce back. Should be an interesting Derby.

john del riccio
04-01-2008, 03:42 PM
The Illinois Derby isn't the type I was talking about. I was a big fan of War Emblem and even picked him here on the site in the Ill Derby, the Derby, and the Preakness.

CJ,

Honestly, I still to this day do not understand how WE

...was 20-1.
...got away with those fractions.
...and Andy Beyer said he didn't bet him.

I was so floored when he won that I actually made a xerox copy of one of my tickets purchased at AQU that day (I bet it early and drove home to watch it).

John

JustRalph
04-01-2008, 03:53 PM
I think any workouts at CD prior to the Derby may tell the tale on Big Brown's feet. I just hope they take him there for more than one workout.

the little guy
04-01-2008, 04:08 PM
Big Brown is a freak but has little chance to win the Ky. derby. BBB


Let's see, last I heard from you Majestic Warrior was one of only six that could win the Derby ( I told you he was, at best, a closing sprinter ). So, now I would have to assume there are only five. Since, apparently, Big Brown isn't one of these five ( according to you ), who pray tell are they?

Bruddah
04-01-2008, 04:30 PM
What type of figures, pedigree or speed?

of Triple Crown Breeding. I have put this together the last 10 years. It covers the last 20 years. Sorry, not willing to share because it has brought many happy Benjamin return$.

Also, find a head on of the Florida Derby. That horse (Big Brown) was more than tired (exhausted), he was at the "end of his ability". Yes, I know he ran fast early, but WHY? Because he can't be effectively rated, he wasn't pushed in that race. He had no real pressure or reason to run those type of fractions. So, you must ask yourself WHY? If another capable speedster pushes him in the Derby, he is burnt toast. His last 1/8th in the Fl Derby was almost 13. He needs to be able to do under 13 sec in the last 1/8th in a 1 1/4 race. Sorry, it ain't going to happen. He wll be all out to stay on the lead, especially, if something is pushing him.

In my humble opinion, he bounces in the Derby, but sets the pace.

My figures last year indicated Curlin was the best horse in the Ky Derby, even without the proper seasoning. The outside post got him more than anything. He didn't win, but the BEST horse doesn't always win in a 20 horse field. However, Curlin has since proved he was the BEST and CLASS of that 3 year old field and my pedigree data base was correct. :ThmbUp:

OTM Al
04-01-2008, 04:44 PM
I currently in the thinking mode similar to Bruddah that coming down the lane he may well be in trouble, especially if we have a recovered War Pass pushing him early. I had stayed on War Pass until I saw the way BB ran here because from the look of the crop as a whole previously, War Pass by himself may have gotten away with a wire job. Now with this guy in, there will be contention early, possibly setting it up for the likes of Pyro, as long as he can get out in the open at the top of the lane. Needless to say if BB does hold on to win and runs back in the Preakness, there will be some tasty $ to be made on that race because I sure can't see him running back well after only 2 weeks. Big, fast and fragile, the epitome of the current American breeding program.

rastajenk
04-01-2008, 04:59 PM
Hey Bruddah, what outside post (re: Curlin)?

FlyinLate
04-01-2008, 05:30 PM
This fascination with Big Brown is like the Bellamy Road experience all over again-monster prep win, big Beyer number and lots of press. All I can say is beware. Someone is going to have to put pressure on War Pass in the Derby or else it's over. And I'm not so sure Big Brown will be that horse. I foresee Brown and several others pressing War Pass to be cooked after three-quarters, setting things up for Pyro, Colonel John, Visionaire (I was desperately hoping to insert Georgie Boy in here!). But who know; we have a long month to go, and maybe someone like Monba or Z Humor will bounce back. Should be an interesting Derby.

Speaking of which, where is Monba supposed to be placed next?

GaryG
04-01-2008, 05:35 PM
But who know; we have a long month to go, and maybe someone like Monba or Z Humor will bounce back. Should be an interesting Derby.Looks to me like Z Humor is headed nowhere but down. Can't see him playing any kind of role in the classics. Looking forward to see what they do with Monba.

joanied
04-01-2008, 05:47 PM
Yep....BB needs several gallops at Churchill to see if his feet hold up. In fact, every horse entered needs a few times around that track.

Wickel
04-01-2008, 06:44 PM
Thought I read somewhere that Monba was headed to the Lexington Stakes. Could be wrong.

PaceAdvantage
04-01-2008, 07:25 PM
This fascination with Big Brown is like the Bellamy Road experience all over again-monster prep win, big Beyer number and lots of press. There's a big difference between what Big Brown did and Bellamy Road, IMO. Bellamy Road earned a big fig, and that's about it....

Big Brown earned a nice fig (not a monter fig, like Bellamy Road), but he ran a MONSTER race, throwing out some nice fractions while having to break from the far outside. Big Brown at least had a little adversity, unlike Bellamy Road.

Robert Fischer
04-01-2008, 11:14 PM
There's a big difference between what Big Brown did and Bellamy Road, IMO. Bellamy Road earned a big fig, and that's about it....

Big Brown earned a nice fig (not a monter fig, like Bellamy Road), but he ran a MONSTER race, throwing out some nice fractions while having to break from the far outside. Big Brown at least had a little adversity, unlike Bellamy Road.

I agree. we witnessed a feat.

TimBo123
04-01-2008, 11:16 PM
TRIPLE CROWN BIG BROWN

Semipro
04-01-2008, 11:40 PM
Speaking of which, where is Monba supposed to be placed next?i don't really think it makes any difference.Unless it"s a low level stakes which is where he belongs.

Semipro
04-01-2008, 11:49 PM
TRIPLE CROWN BIG BROWNThat's a bold statement.I really think he has special talent but best horse of many a year has a hard time passing that test but I'll be on that wagon until the a wheel falls off.

Wickel
04-02-2008, 12:26 AM
http://www.drf.com/news/article/93342.html

DRF article says Pletcher might skip Bluegrass with Monba and opt for Lexington Stakes the following week.

Tee
04-02-2008, 03:21 AM
Compare Big Brown to Indian Charlie & Congaree at this time in their preparation for the Kentucky Derby.

Who was/is the better thoroughbred athlete?

Charlie D
04-02-2008, 08:55 AM
According to my personal Derby figures, Big Brown won't be able to get the Derby distance with any early pressure. Since, he is the best of what we've seen so far this year, this makes the Derby wide open. All of these will be "puking the bit" after 1 1/8m. That includes Pyro.




Just had a quick look at his pedigree Bruddah and although there's stamina in there, you do have to worry about Big Brown and the 10f distance, thats for sure

bellsbendboy
04-03-2008, 06:19 PM
Johnnylu: Will post why Big Brown is hopeless in the next day or so, but will give kudo's to those that knew the outside post would not hurt him and told anyone that would listen ( JB at TG, Steve Zacks at brisnet, and trainer Dutrow himself to name a few.)

Little Guy: Majestic Warrior is by AP Indy and bred to run any distance in the condition book. Your inaccurate assumption that he is a sprinter is a belief not shared by his hall of fame trainer, who has stretched MW in every start, and will point this one to the Preakness. Our list has five possibles left and two will compete this w/end. Both homebreds; from Fipke in the Wood and Winstar in Arcadia. BBB

the little guy
04-03-2008, 07:54 PM
Johnnylu: Will post why Big Brown is hopeless in the next day or so, but will give kudo's to those that knew the outside post would not hurt him and told anyone that would listen ( JB at TG, Steve Zacks at brisnet, and trainer Dutrow himself to name a few.)

Little Guy: Majestic Warrior is by AP Indy and bred to run any distance in the condition book. Your inaccurate assumption that he is a sprinter is a belief not shared by his hall of fame trainer, who has stretched MW in every start, and will point this one to the Preakness. Our list has five possibles left and two will compete this w/end. Both homebreds; from Fipke in the Wood and Winstar in Arcadia. BBB


I'll send your kudos to Steve Zacks next time I see him ( as well as Jerry ). I'm sure it will leave them both verklempt.

As for Majestic Warrior.....while I realize even when you're wrong you're right, let me allow reality to intervene for just a second. When Coolmore paid a sum that would even make the Sheik blush for just half of him after his Hopeful win they didn't have a sweep of the Woody Stephens and King's Bishop in mind. The only chance they have of realistically recouping their purchase price is if he were to win a major 3YO Grade 1 race, so just as they have done ( sometimes foolishly ) in the past, they will run him in distance races in which he doesn't belong in a desperate attempt to salvage their investment. If you actually think Bill Mott is solely calling the shots with Majestic Warrior then you're even nuttier than I think ( and that's pretty damn nuts ). And furthermore, they can run him in the BC Marathon for all I care, but the simple fact is he hasn't raised a hoof in either of his career distance races. But hey, what do I know, you declared him the second coming of Kelso....so I must be wrong.

classhandicapper
04-03-2008, 09:30 PM
There's a big difference between what Big Brown did and Bellamy Road, IMO. Bellamy Road earned a big fig, and that's about it....

Big Brown earned a nice fig (not a monter fig, like Bellamy Road), but he ran a MONSTER race, throwing out some nice fractions while having to break from the far outside. Big Brown at least had a little adversity, unlike Bellamy Road.

Exactly.

I would add that BR also caught a track that was very kind to speed.

classhandicapper
04-03-2008, 09:32 PM
Let's see, last I heard from you Majestic Warrior was one of only six that could win the Derby ( I told you he was, at best, a closing sprinter ). So, now I would have to assume there are only five. Since, apparently, Big Brown isn't one of these five ( according to you ), who pray tell are they?

I think Majestic Warrior was rushed back to the races after his injury by a horseman that rarely does such things. The smartest thing Mott could do now is stop on him and start over. The horse has obvious talent. Even in his loss prior to the FL Derby he made a visually impressive move around horses while wide before weakening. Personally, I have a tough time thinking he's just a sprinter. I think he's just not right and hasn't been since his second start. He may never be again.

ny0707ny
04-03-2008, 11:05 PM
Good stat I found here. Experience will be the problem guys. I say if Curlin didn't do it off 3 starts, I don't think this horse will. He would have to be better than Curlin is. http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/triplecrowntalk/archive/2008/04/01/Don-t-crown-Big-Brown-just-yet.aspx

No horse in the last 93 years has won the KentuckyDerby off only three starts.

Ron
04-03-2008, 11:45 PM
I bet Big Brown doesn't even make it to the Derby.

PaceAdvantage
04-04-2008, 01:54 AM
I bet Big Brown doesn't even make it to the Derby.That's the unlikeliest of scenarios, so you best hope for big odds.

rastajenk
04-04-2008, 06:15 AM
Good stat I found here. Experience will be the problem guys. I say if Curlin didn't do it off 3 starts, I don't think this horse will. He would have to be better than Curlin is. http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/triplecrowntalk/archive/2008/04/01/Don-t-crown-Big-Brown-just-yet.aspx

No horse in the last 93 years has won the KentuckyDerby off only three starts.
When was the last time a filly won the Belmont?

zoobird
04-04-2008, 08:19 AM
Good stat I found here. Experience will be the problem guys. I say if Curlin didn't do it off 3 starts, I don't think this horse will. He would have to be better than Curlin is. http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/triplecrowntalk/archive/2008/04/01/Don-t-crown-Big-Brown-just-yet.aspx

No horse in the last 93 years has won the KentuckyDerby off only three starts.

Only about 12 or 13 horses have ever tried, and only Curlin, Showing Up, and maybe one other had any talent. You can throw Big Brown out based on a belief that common sense dictates that more seasoning is required to go 1 1/4 miles and beat 19 other talented horses, but there isn't a usable sample size to provide any statistical evidence one way or the other.

rokitman
04-04-2008, 08:23 AM
Good stat I found here. Experience will be the problem guys. I say if Curlin didn't do it off 3 starts, I don't think this horse will. He would have to be better than Curlin is. http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/triplecrowntalk/archive/2008/04/01/Don-t-crown-Big-Brown-just-yet.aspx

No horse in the last 93 years has won the KentuckyDerby off only three starts. What percentage of Derby starters have had 3 three starts are less? And, more accurately, what is their average pool percentage?

Very, very small I'd venture. This is the same as saying No gelding has won the Derby since...!!! Ya can't win if you're not in the race. And if you are in the race, and there is 1 of you, and 19 of them, you're going to go on some quite long losing streaks.

rokitman
04-04-2008, 08:35 AM
Hey Zoo, I just noticed what you posted as I was writing the above! Quite bizarre! :D

ny0707ny
04-04-2008, 12:00 PM
But if the trainers thought horses can win the Derby off just 3 starts, you would have more entering off just 3 starts. That is the reason why the pool of 3 starts is small for the Derby. The horse is too green to have a big chance. The trainers figure why bother racing him in the Derby if you can't win.

zoobird
04-04-2008, 12:25 PM
But if the trainers thought horses can win the Derby off just 3 starts, you would have more entering off just 3 starts. That is the reason why the pool of 3 starts is small for the Derby. The horse is too green to have a big chance. The trainers figure why bother racing him in the Derby if you can't win.

There MIGHT be something to that, but a few others reasons so few may try it:

1. The trainers may be fooled by the belief that it can't be done too. They may THINK its a disadvantage incorrectly.

2. More importantly...how many horses are so good so early in their career that after three races their connections truly believe they're Derby material? Not only would they need to win several of the races impressively, but it would have to include at least one route.

3. Most horses need more than three starts to get the necessary graded earnings nowadays.

4. While the Derby is certainly a primary objective for many owners, the prize money for other races is still substantial enough to argue for running the horses rather than just leaving them sitting around in the barn.

Golf and Horses
04-04-2008, 02:02 PM
This horse is pretty awesome...but no one has mentioned his feet. He wore special shoes ($525.00 a pair)

$525? He's got taste like my wife!:D

Semipro
04-04-2008, 06:35 PM
But if the trainers thought horses can win the Derby off just 3 starts, you would have more entering off just 3 starts. That is the reason why the pool of 3 starts is small for the Derby. The horse is too green to have a big chance. The trainers figure why bother racing him in the Derby if you can't win.If you were the owner of Big Brown knowingly bucking 93 yr. history would you enter him ?

headhawg
04-04-2008, 07:10 PM
If you were the owner of Big Brown knowingly bucking 93 yr. history would you enter him ?Well if they are Cubs fans...

Kelso
04-04-2008, 10:29 PM
Well if they are Cubs fans...

You make a fair point to this lifelong fan of the Boston Red Sox ... the winningest World Series team of the 21st Century!! :jump: :D

bellsbendboy
04-05-2008, 10:03 PM
Little Guy

Whatever Majestic Warrior earns from here is gravy for his co-owners. He is the rarest of the rare. A Grade One winner, by a multilple Grade one winner, and out of a multiple grade one winner. His conformation is superb and he will sire a bunches of winners.

We are a bit nuts. Hopefully you cashed on two of our "other" five as both colts moved on. BBB

the little guy
04-05-2008, 11:21 PM
Little Guy

Whatever Majestic Warrior earns from here is gravy for his co-owners. He is the rarest of the rare. A Grade One winner, by a multilple Grade one winner, and out of a multiple grade one winner. His conformation is superb and he will sire a bunches of winners.

We are a bit nuts. Hopefully you cashed on two of our "other" five as both colts moved on. BBB


If you actually knew what Coolmore paid for half of this horse, just as if you actually knew anything about what you post, you would realize that this may be the most hilariously wrong thing ever posted on the internet.....and that's saying a whole lot.

ghostyapper
04-06-2008, 01:16 AM
If you actually knew what Coolmore paid for half of this horse, just as if you actually knew anything about what you post, you would realize that this may be the most hilariously wrong thing ever posted on the internet.....and that's saying a whole lot.

I heard it was between 10-15 million so yes he's got more to accomplish on the track before they can even begin thinking profit.

the little guy
04-06-2008, 10:14 AM
I heard it was between 10-15 million so yes he's got more to accomplish on the track before they can even begin thinking profit.


Supposedly it was significantly more believe it or not.