Beyer-Missing Leg

[cj]

Beyer Article (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A58743-2003Feb11.html)

CJ

[karlskorner]

Have 8 running today at GP, hard to ignore them.

[rrbauer]

Beyer has switched schticks over the past couple years. Andy used to do some handicapping and offer some decent insights and analysis to current races. Today, every chance he gets, he chooses to piss all over a successful operation with innuendo and clouds of suspicion about needles, drugs, syringes, sponges, etc.

Whenever Andy starts applying some journalistic integrity to his efforts and makes claims of substance that can be backed with facts instead of trying to heighten suspicion about why someone is winning with horses that he didn't pick, then he may regain some of my interest (and respect). Until then all of his incessant rambling with gobbldygook designed to defame and malign; but, in such a manner that he can escape any penalties for libel, is better suited for the racks at the supermarket check-out stands.

[pic6vic]

Richard

Don't be so tame, tell us how you really feel.

Good post and accurate. I am a Andy Beyer fan, but I agree with you about his writings. I do not enjoy reading him.

[hurrikane]

I agree. There was a time when Andy talked of the magic a trainer could do with a horse. Now he seems to think it is all drugs.

As for Shuman. I have made tons off this guy and not just Gill horses. I take my hat off to him.

Karl, some can be ignored.

[cj]

Originally posted by hurrikane


...Karl, some can be ignored.

If you thought that on Sunday, you'd have missed $30.60 and $20.80 winners. All his winners lately don't look like "logical" horses.

CJ

[hurrikane]

Actually cj i had both of those winners on the weekend. that is not the shuman horse to ignore.

check his success in the weeds. but then again..maybe he's 'due'<g>.

[Marc At DRF]

The naivete on Gill is rather startling from some here. If anything, Beyer is being tame.

Here's a couple more DRF pieces on Gill that will perhaps lend some credence to Beyer's column.

http://www.drf2000.com/members/web_news.generate_article_html?p_news_head=44002&p_arc=1

http://www.drf2000.com/members/web_news.generate_article_html?p_news_head=44122&p_arc=1

[cj]

Good job Marc,

I thought he portrayed both sides of the issue fairly and was even a little lenient toward Gill. The same guys killing Meche over the Delata incident should be all over this Gill guy.

CJ

[rrbauer]

I have read those articles, Marc. I suppose that reading them will transform the posters here from naive to informed...is that your gist?

If you or the DRF think that Gill/Shuman are crooked why don't you just say that? Then back it up.

Beyer "tame"? Hell, he's a crotchety old man who lacks a sense of humor and who can't remember the last winner he picked. He's not tame; he's milquetoast!

[rrbauer]

CJ wrote:
I thought he portrayed both sides of the issue fairly and was even a little lenient toward Gill. The same guys killing Meche over the Delata incident should be all over this Gill guy.


Comment:
Go for it CJ. Make the case.

[Marc At DRF]

Richard-- Do you play GP regularly? Your comments read as if you're not following the meet closely.

If you're not, how often do you see older claimers run splits a second faster then they ever have in their lives, then continue on to a 6 length victory... Once a month? Once a week? We're seeing that down in Florida many times a week... With only one owner listed...

If they're clean, it's some of the most incredible horsemanship I've ever seen. It's strictly one man's opinion, of course, but I'll leave you with a question that may characterize Gill-- When was the last time you read a story in ANY publication about a horse owner that used the word "syringe" as liberally as McGee's DRF piece did?

[rrbauer]

Damn Marc that's really compelling stuff. You've won me over with such factual and objective presentations. Now I know that I need to count the number of times that the word "syringe" appears in an article in order to determine which way to vote when horse-drugging is the issue.

[Marc At DRF]

Thanks for answering my question on whether you've been following GP closely. The McGee piece, noting the banning of Gill in the past, etc, I would think it would be helpful to you in terms of understand the roots of the skepticism. Most of the players I knwo who are following GP closely have noted the extensive series of form reversals and have become as suspicious as Beyer is.

Certainly, there is a chance that they are all wrong; me, too. But apparently, you are convinced that this sort of talk is unfair and offbase. Did you ever feel similarly about those accused in the BC pick 6 scandal?

[hurrikane]

yeah. the best Beyer didn't win..or even the 'adjusted Beyer' :D.

I guess someone must have cheated.

Pleeeaassseeeee!

[Marc At DRF]

One of the weakest things weak handicappers do is blame drugs (when there are none) for their losses.

If you're familiar with Beyer's history as a writer, this is not something he is known for.

And most of the players I hear crying foul about Gill, it's not what they're known for either.

[GameTheory]

Marc --

I'm not taking sides on this issue, but could you name some(older) Gill horses that have run splits faster than ever and gone on to win big? I would like to look them up...

[Marc At DRF]

Ugh. Beyer mentioned Tasty Caberneigh. Boston Brat comes to mind. There were a few ridden by Santos over the last couple weeks of Jan... I don't have time to go throug hall their PPs, but take a look at the performances from: Roger E, Denimsanddiamonds, Dance The Slew, Canfield, Stormin Cherokee, sentimentalromance, Sun fighter, Huber Woods, etc.

Note both the early pace and margins of victory.

[rrbauer]

Marc wrote:
Thanks for answering my question on whether you've been following GP closely.

Comment:
Following GP? Close enough to know that Shuman is leading trainer. Close enough to know that his horses' tests are not testing positive for whatever the labs are looking for. Close enough to know that from time to time GP gets a speed bias to die for, if you can make the lead and go to the rail.

The McGee piece, noting the banning of Gill in the past, etc,

Comment:
What's "etc"? A convenient notation when you run out of facts?

Gill isn't training the horses, Shuman is. As to clenbuterol positives, if you understand what it is and how it affects horses and humans and that it's used commonly in the training process for horses that have lung congestion; and, you realize that it has been accepted over time for that purpose then it's hard to get real excited about it...if you view clenbuterol positives as the kiss of death for a trainer maybe you should make a list of all the trainers who have had a positive for clenbuterol...and are still training. Maybe you'll learn something.

[Marc At DRF]

So it sounds like you're not following GP that closely.

And if all you got out of the McGee piece (or any of the other pieces on Gill) is Clenbuterol positives, I'm surprised.

And you didn't answer my question about the pick 6 scandal.

[Tom]

I am not following the GP meeting at all, so I have no idea what is going on down there. I will definately look in to my archived formulator PPs and see, though. A few questions for thought?
What are the Beyers on these surprisingly fast horses? Beyer might be seeing something ther that most of don't, seeing how he is making the numbers that is often an eye opener.
Are other horses in the same races improving dramatically as well? Are the GP timers working properly? Bad history of times and Florida racing. I am willing to be objective, but my first hunch is "OSCAR IS BACK?"
Let's talk about specific horses-could be fun to see what we come up with as why things happened as they did.

[cj]

Originally posted by rrbauer
CJ wrote:
I thought he portrayed both sides of the issue fairly and was even a little lenient toward Gill. The same guys killing Meche over the Delata incident should be all over this Gill guy.


Comment:
Go for it CJ. Make the case.

Umm, I'm not one of the guys killing Meche, I think he is getting shafted. I just don't see where Beyer was out of line with Gill, he actually said some very good things about him. To fail to address the drug issue that is on most people's minds would be irresponsible reporting.

CJ

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by Marc At DRF
Ugh. Beyer mentioned Tasty Caberneigh. Boston Brat comes to mind. There were a few ridden by Santos over the last couple weeks of Jan... I don't have time to go throug hall their PPs, but take a look at the performances from: Roger E, Denimsanddiamonds, Dance The Slew, Canfield, Stormin Cherokee, sentimentalromance, Sun fighter, Huber Woods, etc.

Note both the early pace and margins of victory.


TASTY CABERNEIGH
Won for Gill in his first race for Gill on 2/7. Nothing suspicious here. This horse was already about to peak when he claimed him, and his pace figures are nothing he hasn't run before.

BOSTON BRAT
Raced for Gill going 9 back. Has won 4 of those, and he's had the best final time figures of his career. Looks like he always had lots of speed, but has sustained it much better since Gill bought him. He's won the last 2 in a row as a heavy favorite, but those are also some of the softest spots he's ever raced in, at least going by the pars.

DENIMSANDDIAMONDS
One race for Gill, one win for Gill (by 12 lengths). Pace figure not his best ever, but above average, and he earned the best final time figure ever by a large margin.

ROGER E
Was lightly raced before Gill came along, not much to compare to, but he has done consistently well since then. All of these horses show a pattern of high early speed and sustaining it well after Gill gets a hold of them.

DANCE THE SLEW
One race, one win. No special improvement from his usual figs, just a win.

CANFIELD
Two races, one win. Nothing remarkable here, just a reversion to the good form he was showing just a couple of races before Gill claimed him.

STORMIN CHEROKEE
One race, one win. Gill ran him and won at 7.0f on dirt coming off four straight 8.5f turf races. All of his previous dirt races were at least a furlong shorter, where he showed flashes of speed and quit. Not much to go on.

SENTIMENTALROMANCE
Two races for Gill. First was a big win in a soft spot. The horse won by 11 lengths but his figure wasn't all that impressive. Maybe Gill really is intimidating others from running against him? Regressed some in next start.

SUN FIGHTER
One race, one win. Figures nothing better than the horse has run before.

HUBER WOODS
Claimed for 25k, won at 10k a couple of races later. Nothing magical in that.



Most of these have only won or two races with Gill, and while they're certainly running well, there is nothing particularly damning on a case-by-case basis. Boston Brat is the most impressive, having many races with Gill, all quite a bit better that he had been doing for a long time before Gill. The biggest piece of "evidence" is just that there are so many of them. This is course is a cherry-picked set out of a gazillion claims he's made lately, but I'm not going to complain about that because that is what I asked for. I will say many of these wins are in very soft spots for these horses, which is exactly what he claims -- he puts them where they will be much the best and win. Also likely is he is driving away some of the competition.

BTW, the figures and pars I'm referring to are my own, so I don't know how they compare to Beyers, et al...

[karlskorner]

Of the 8 horses they were going to run today, Shuman sratched 3, 5 ran, 1 placed, the other 4 were out for the fresh air and sea breeze.

As I said earlier, Gill/Shuman are hard to ignore at this point in the meet, but with all the attention they are drawing who knows.
Meanwhile 4 races were won by horses paying $30-$40.00

[JustRalph]

I don't follow GP enough to know this, Marc at DRF, maybe you can answer this?

How many 14k claimers run a 1:09 Flat for 6F. And then how many run that at GP? Just wondered?

[rrbauer]

Virtually every racing fan in America believes that the sport is being permeated and poisoned by the widespread use of illegal drugs. Trainers come from obscurity to stardom overnight. They transform horses miraculously. They achieve winning percentages that would make history's greatest horsemen envious.

Andrew Beyer, November 21, 2002, Washington Post.


More factless gobbldygook. Note the references to the infamous "they". From the mindset revealed here we should expect very little from Beyer in the way of journalistic integrity. Maybe he thinks he's preaching to the choir.

[Derek2U]

I read the Beyer article & I didn't get your reaction. After all, it
is a newspaper and the stuff has to be talked about, but fairly.
Now my gut reaction tells me that these 2 peabrains Gill+Shuman
will quickly prove the Beyer case or disprove it soon. In fact, this
board often has math approaches to problems & here comes
the chance for one: Divide their success rate into periods,
up to a few days ago & the next month. See if sig different.
My hunch is it will be cause the stewards etc are aware that
they MUST be doing something illegal. The heat is on them just
like it was on many others before including Englander. When
a real power person confronts them & says WHAT THE F U DOIN?
the game is over.

[superfecta]

Originally posted by Marc At DRF
One of the weakest things weak handicappers do is blame drugs (when there are none) for their losses.

If you're familiar with Beyer's history as a writer, this is not something he is known for.

And most of the players I hear crying foul about Gill, it's not what they're known for either. Beyer is one who decries Lasix ad nauseum.When he gave an example according to his speed figs,I checked against the DRF speed index.I found the wide descrepancy in his figs was not evident in the speed index.The horse ran close to his last race but for some reason the Beyer was out of wack.So Beyer blames drugs.Had some respect for his figs until I saw too many bad figs.When he blames bad figs on something else other than the possibility his figs were bad on that race,he lost my confidence in his figs.We can't be right all the time,but to blame something else a majority of the time(drugs,trainers,bad rides)and not say"man I sure missed up on that one",starts to make me think less of that person.Or his method.

[tanda]

Richard and all:

Missing in this debate is: what the hell was going on with that leg?

[Derek2U]

I did not ever think of that happening. A very serious co-mingle of subjective feelings & derived figs. Like separation of church-state, worse really. Thats the trick ... to measure a concept as
it is ... if its speed, you have to know its parts (final time/distance/
class). Why dont math guys prove their formulas but predicting
something with small error: Predict the FINAL TIME of a RACE.
Aha ... is it because you dont know the variant? Then, tell me,
after examing past races, can you predict the variant & then use
that variant to Predict the Final Time.

[Marc At DRF]

I should have mentioned Pape, too, from last Sunday. Unable to challenge for the lead at 6 or 7 furlongs at Calder, he goes 21 and 4 in a 5 furlong race at GP, drawing off easily for his new connections. Career best Beyer of 90 on Sunday, in his 18th career start.

> Tasty Caberneigh.
101 Beyer on Friday, a career top by 6 for his new connections, in his first start for them, after a couple in the mid 70s... The one time he hit even 95 was a year ago.

>Boston Brat comes to mind.

Consecutive career top Beyers for these connections at this meet. Setting or tying track records in these two starts.

>Roger E,

Consecutive career top Beyers in each of his two GP starts this year.

>Denimsanddiamonds,

Never better than a 70 Beyer in 16 career starts until his last start at GP-- an 84.

>Dance The Slew,

Nothing special, a bad inclusion on my part.

>Canfield,

The main reason I threw this one in is because I always remembered his as a closing sprinter when he ran in NY-- surprising to see him on the lead now that he is in Gill's care...

>Stormin Cherokee,

Career top 75 Beyer in 11th start

>sentimentalromance

He's run 48 times, but he's only exceeded 80 on the Beyer scale twice-- each of his last two starts at Gulfstream Park.

>Sun fighter

Bad inclusion, in terms of Beyers.

>Huber Woods

Another iffy inclusion. though like many Shuman/Gill horses, the move to GP has provoked a seemingly sudden reversal to back form-- In 19 career starts, this guy only hit 90 twice, or even got anywhere near it-- last October (which was followed by 5 mediocre races where he averaged a 73 or so), when he ran a 95, and in his last start, at Gulfstream, when he ran a 91.

When I threw together the list of names for Game Theory, I did by grabbing a pile of Simulcast Weekly's to jog my memory, and then just picking out *some* of his *winners* that I remembered as performing unusually well as compared to their PPs-- I probably missed some, plus who knows how many second or third place horses ran new Beyer tops...

But I mentioned 10 horses, and 6 of them show a total of 8 Beyer tops since GP opened. Pape makes it 7 for 11. I feel confident that these numbers would stay above 50% for any of his winners of the meet, and I'm equally confident that if you looked at all of the winners at GP, nowhere near 50% are winning with career-top Beyers.

It's some amazing horsemanship, right? And/or those Beyer numbers must be baaaaad.

[andicap]

Originally posted by Derek2U
I read the Beyer article & I didn't get your reaction. After all, it
is a newspaper and the stuff has to be talked about, but fairly.
Now my gut reaction tells me that these 2 peabrains Gill+Shuman
will quickly prove the Beyer case or disprove it soon. In fact, this
board often has math approaches to problems & here comes
the chance for one: Divide their success rate into periods,
up to a few days ago & the next month. See if sig different.
My hunch is it will be cause the stewards etc are aware that
they MUST be doing something illegal. The heat is on them just
like it was on many others before including Englander. When
a real power person confronts them & says WHAT THE F U DOIN?
the game is over.

to Derek's point -- What has Frank Passaro done since his huge streak? What, he suddenly became a bad horseman? Oscar Barrara had a hot streak until they cracked down on him and suddently he couldn't win a race.

You see this with lots of claiming trainers. They win 25% for a while -- the writers call them 'great horsemen' -- and then they win nothing? (Yes, I realize in some cases there are other factors -- trainers lose their best grooms, their best clients, etc. -- so this is not 100%).

Why isn't Beyer's comparison to Passaro an apt one? Sounds similar to me? Horseman on a huge streak with jump-up horses. To say its Beyer's figures that are wrong rather than something with the horseman (and maybe HE is just a great trainer who invests lots of $$$ in his horses,)-

Beyer did not make a value judgement, he just raised the question.

Doesn't everyone agree that the questions have to be asked???

[cj]

Yes, they do have to be asked, that's why I said not to broach the subject would have been irresponsible reporting.

I don't always agree with Mr. Beyer, but what writer has done more for the every day horse player than him?

CJ

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by Marc At DRF
I should have mentioned Pape, too, from last Sunday. Unable to challenge for the lead at 6 or 7 furlongs at Calder, he goes 21 and 4 in a 5 furlong race at GP, drawing off easily for his new connections. Career best Beyer of 90 on Sunday, in his 18th career start.

...snip...

But I mentioned 10 horses, and 6 of them show a total of 8 Beyer tops since GP opened. Pape makes it 7 for 11. I feel confident that these numbers would stay above 50% for any of his winners of the meet, and I'm equally confident that if you looked at all of the winners at GP, nowhere near 50% are winning with career-top Beyers.

It's some amazing horsemanship, right? And/or those Beyer numbers must be baaaaad.


Are all the Beyers bad? I doubt it, but I don't think blind faith in them is warranted either. My figures are totally objective. They do have a variant, but it is totally systematic in application (and are designed so extra fast performances from single horses can't unbalance them).

Tasty Caberneigh gets a 74 on my scale for 2/7, which you said was a lifetime best Beyer by 6. My figures give 100 to a roughly world-record performance and 1 point = approx 1/5 second, but that is after distance equalization so it varies somewhat.

While that 74 is one of his best figures, it is not a lifetime top, nor a giant improvement over recent previous races. I gave him a 72 on 11/17/02, a 75 on 06/23/02, and a few in the 75-77 range before that. Those were all before Gill. His pace figures are pretty much the same as the always were.

Boston Brat got a career high 76 on 8/14 for Gill. His most recent two were a 72 & 70.

Denimsanddiamonds got a 72 in his first race for Gill. Previous best a 62.

Canfield is interesting. He ran some monster 2f & 4f figures early in his career. It looks as though Gill has got him back running to the way he was two owners back. You might blame that one on the previous owner Klein and whoever his trainer was. You may want to double-check that one. He looks like a speedster in his NY races to me, and spent a year away from NY before Gill got him.

Stormin Cherokee I gave higher figures in his turf races than his latest dirt race. His win for Gill was his first race on dirt longer than 6.0f (most of 'em were 5f & 5.5f). Hard to say.

Sentimentalromance you said had his best two Beyers ever the last two. I gave him a 61 & a 65. He's earned a 61 or better 22 other times -- highest 68. Those Beyers look inflated.

Huber Woods was dropped to 10k and trounced them. That was just easy competition.

Pape ran a new top 68 by 3 in last. He's also a horse with good early speed that hasn't run at 5.0f since his second ever start.


Two things:

-- Many of these Beyers seems inflated to me. Anybody have BRIS or Cramer figures on these horses?

-- He is picking his spots very well. Many of these horses are also switching surfaces & distances with Gill, apparently to more favored ones. Not to mention the fact that he's placing them below where many others would for fear of losing them.

So, here is a guy that is clearly (and he has stated this himself) willing to lose money on these horses to give them a very good shot to win races. Profit is not his goal, winning races is. That gives him a competitive advantage in that he is willing to place these horses in very soft spots and risk having them claimed away. Along with that is that he is willing to spend more money on the health & fitness of these horses than others would. Increasing his advantage. Neither of these have to do with horsemanship, just a willingness to lose money. Combine just decent to above average horsemanship with a spare-no-expense attitude and placing his stock in soft spots, and you are going to see improvements. Maybe big improvements.

So the question becomes are the improvements too big and too often? Isn't the answer, "How can we know?" Who is there to compare him to? Who else has been willing to blow this kind of money on claimers? There is no benchmark.

And those Beyers do seem out of whack, so maybe they are that bad? Possible? (I haven't looked at Beyers in years, so I have no idea.)

On the other hand, you've got legs going missing. And that's never good.

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski

I don't always agree with Mr. Beyer, but what writer has done more for the every day horse player than him?


What's he done? He put those damn figures in the form and killed the golden goose! I'm supposed to be grateful?

[Marc At DRF]

I, too, would be curious to hear the BRIS numbers on the horses I mentioned. The "Beyers are out of whack" theory isn't really flying for me right now...

Here's Len Friedman from the Ragozin Sheets on Gill's horses numbers, and how they read on the Sheets:

"His horses as a whole have improved ~2-3 points after getting to GP"

2-3 points on Ragozin is substantial. Also from Friedman:

"I have no doubt that Shuman and Gill have been pointing for this meet, but their results over the past year at Del and Md have been just as impressive on the SHEETS. In fact every trainer that Gill uses (regardless of their prior record) instantly becomes very successful. You may want to bury your head in the sand and pretend that this is all hay and oats, but there is no doubt that they're using something (not necessarily illegal) to get these horses to improve to levels having nothing to do with their prior ability. If it is an illegal substance, let's hope that the racing authorities have the will and skill to test for it and that they take significant action when and if any positives are found."

[cj]

Rusty Spur comes to mind for me, not Shuman, but a Gill horse as well.

CJ

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by Marc At DRF
I, too, would be curious to hear the BRIS numbers on the horses I mentioned. The "Beyers are out of whack" theory isn't really flying for me right now...


All I'm saying is that my figures are based on race times and that's it. If these horses were running super-fast times relative to their previous races, I'd see it. I'm seeing big improvements in a couple horses, and moderate improvement in others, many times just a return to previous form...

[cj]

Vet barred from GP (http://www.drf2000.com/news/article/44195.html)

CJ

[andicap]

Originally posted by GameTheory
All I'm saying is that my figures are based on race times and that's it. If these horses were running super-fast times relative to their previous races, I'd see it. I'm seeing big improvements in a couple horses, and moderate improvement in others, many times just a return to previous form...


GT, that's the point? What do drugs do anyway? They don't necessarily make a horse run faster, but they can make the horse feel better than he has in years.
If a trainer can make a horse run to his best times -- times he may not have run in a long time -- he has something there. What he has is the $64 question.

[Derek2U]

I dont agree 100% with your idea that drugs just make a horse
feel better & so he runs closer to his potential. hehe ... EPO type
drugs are illegal in all serious competition & they should be kept
banned I think. And other drugs mask other drugs so its harder
to say but in a way I think ALL STATES should agree on whats OK -- in what doses etc etc. Then we would know what the F is to expect.

[andicap]

Originally posted by Derek2U
I dont agree 100% with your idea that drugs just make a horse
feel better & so he runs closer to his potential. hehe ... EPO type
drugs are illegal in all serious competition & they should be kept
banned I think. And other drugs mask other drugs so its harder
to say but in a way I think ALL STATES should agree on whats OK -- in what doses etc etc. Then we would know what the F is to expect.

(sigh)
Derek you missed my point by a country mile.
I'm virulently anti-drug. I was suggesting to GT was that Gill's horses didn't need to improve to show he was up to no good. Only that if the horses ran back to their previous bests, it was a potential sign that something woke them up, either drugs or a great job of training.
I was defending Beyer who wasn't accusing anyone, but asking the questions that need to be asked. I think Gill's background also plays a part in this. I mean he's been nabbed on this before. isn't that relevant?

[JustRalph]

Anybody find a 14k claimer that runs 1:09 for 6F yet?

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by andicap
GT, that's the point? What do drugs do anyway? They don't necessarily make a horse run faster, but they can make the horse feel better than he has in years.
If a trainer can make a horse run to his best times -- times he may not have run in a long time -- he has something there. What he has is the $64 question.

I'm not talking about previous form from years ago in most cases -- I'm talking about previous form from 2 or 3 races back from only a couple of months ago, with the intervening races not being all that bad. In other words, I'm not seeing a dramatic reversal (although there are a couple like that), just a normal looking peak in the cycle, and usually against weaker competition than they had been facing. And many of the "lifetime bests" according to the Beyers were not lifetime bests according to me -- some of them were absolutely average performances.

I was really only speaking to the accuracy or inaccuracy of the figures with this stuff, not trying to defend Gill (that leg did get cut off rather mysteriously, after all) -- it seemed Marc was being blown away by the Beyer figures without looking also at the soft spots, distance/surface switches, etc. and drawing conclusions based on a single number. (Read the part in BEYER ON SPEED about "How was this figure earned?" Beyer himself knows his figures can be inflated in the right circumstances.) If the figures are inflated, then they will be misleading. (Of course my figures could be deflated for some reason, which is why I'd like someone to chime in with some BRIS or Cramer figs.)

My other point was that given the approach that Gill is taking (spare no expense, place them where they can win), you are *most definitely* going to see a lot of good performances without any illegal activity necessary. So you have to allow him a certain margin of improvement that he gained by "throwing money at the problem" and then conclude he's performing well above THAT ALREADY IMPROVED LEVEL before you can conclude he *must* also be "throwing illegal drugs at the problem".

So just saying, "Look, all these horses have really improved." isn't good enough because of course they have. You have to say, "These horses have improved beyond what is *possible* by non-illegal, albeit expensive methods."

In light of all that, supporting the latter opinion on the basis of a single, somewhat subjective speed figure seems a bit weak. I'd be focusing on that leg if I wanted to build a case against Gill...

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by JustRalph
Anybody find a 14k claimer that runs 1:09 for 6F yet?

I found a handful at fast tracks like Golden Gate & Turf Paradise. Emerald, Yavapai, Mountaineer, & the California fairs also showed up a number of times. Many of them are in the 5-8k range.

Didn't see any in Florida...

[JustRalph]

Thanks Gametheory

I still think that's a pretty hot time for that class of horse.
Gill and Shuman sure are stirring it up. Its going to be interesting to see how it plays out. :cool:

[aaron]

In New York racing we've been through this so many times,it has become 2nd nature to us.Gill is out in the open at GP,but we've been through Oscar Barrerra,Peter Ferriola,Gasper Moschera and to a lesser extent Mitchell Freidman and a handful of others.As of now we are dealing with Dutrow,Lake,Labocetta,Husion, and the suddenly hot Carlos Martin.We've learned to deal with it.It has become a major part of the handicapping process.In my opinion,the trainers today are harder to track than Oscar Barrera.Are they all using juice? I don't have the answer,but if you want to play this game you better learn to deal with this type of trainer. Also,Wayne Lukas and Bob Baffert have done amazing things with certain horses.This problem exsists on all levels of the game.

[rrbauer]

Taken verbatim from another forum.

"As the then Horsemen's Liaison at GP, I lived through every bogus detail of
the "investigation" of the red-hot Frank Passero. First of all, Frank was
not some fly-by-nighter who suddenly burst upon the racing scene with a
flurry of chemically-induced success. He had been a claiming legend at
Woodbine for years and years before ever applying for stalls at GP. Nobody
read a condition book better than Frank and nobody placed his horses with
better precision than him (think Bobby Frankel in his early NY claiming
days.)

The absolute heart of the brouhaha against Passero's stable that winter can
be stated in two little but noisy and powerful words...Andy Beyer. Andy lost
a fortune at the windows betting against Frank during the streak and made it
his personal vendetta to make Frank pay. Andy personally insisted that an
investigation be launched, insisted that security guards be posted at
Passero's barn, insisted that all his horses be tested, insisted Passero's
help be grilled Gestapo-style, took pot shots at him in his column ad
nauseum, generally conducting himself like a vicious, vindictive loser. I am
embarrassed and disappointed to this day that GP's management did not stand
up to Beyer and put an end to the travesty. Frank's streak generated
fantastic fan interest for GP, nobody supported the entry box better than
Frank, his owners came down in droves to play the ponies and party and his
record was clean. Frank deserved much better from GP. But Andy was a
personal favorite of the Director of Communications and if Andy whined,
everybody had to listen. No drug positives were attributed to Frank's horses
and that crap about the pepper salve was ludicrous (Have any of you TRIED to
rub pepper on a stallion's balls and lived to tell the tale?"). In the
course of my duties, I was at the Passero barn daily, knew his crew and
family well and watched them suffer tremendously during this episode. All
charges eventually were dropped but Passero's taste for GP never did quite
revive. A couple of years later he suffered a family tragedy and scaled his
operations way back.

Yet the "experts" still write him off as the pepper man, attribute his
decades of success to cheating and dismiss him as a one streak wonder. Such
is the power of the press to distort, besmudge and crucify. A pathetic
chapter. To this day, I cannot read Beyer without a foul taste in my mouth."

Posted by Anne Palmer

[Suff]

I don't know enough about everything involved But I will voice an opinion on Gill... and racing in general.

Gill Started out Claiming Horses here at Suffolk and Rockingham. He was a Mortgage Broker... Started his own outfit Just as Allen Greenspan went on his Interest rate LOWERING binge.. and GILL made a Fortune refininacing mortgages one after another... I believe the name of his outfit is Eastern Mortgage.

In Racing... there is royalty... You see it every year with the same Owners and trainers having all the Brand Name horses.. and showing up at all the big races. They don't like this guy... he's to low brow for thier taste. He's Cracking thier Holier-than-thou circle and it's got them all flustered. If you or I showed up and did the same thing... they'd be attacking us. The guy is winning and it's really pissing them off.

He's Living out a Dream that many of us has... Starting with a few Low-end horses... and Multiplying it into the BIG SHOW. I'm rooting for him.

[Tom]

Rub red pepper on a stallion's balls?????
Thanks for the visual....I won't sleep tonight!
<G>

[karlskorner]

http://espn.com/horse/news/2003/0224/1513786.html

[hurrikane]

I'm inclined to side with Anne Palmer on this one.
I have a lot of respect for Beyer. He made me a successful horseplayer in the 70s and I got a great understanding of the game from him.

Surprisingly, a lot of what I got had to do with trainers and not speed figs.

What I see is a prominate writter playing at the GP meet, as he does every year, and blaming his losses on the trainer. I find that very sad.

I can't say there are no drugs. I can say I bet trainers like this every day. All over the US. At most every track. They win when it looks like they shouldn't. They place thier horses properly. They take care of their stock. They win.
Why isn't Andy screaming about Barbara in NY. Cole at OP and numerous trainers at other tracks all across the country.
Maybe he didn't get beat by one of their horses.

[andicap]

earlier in this thread, I defended Beyer.

I have to say, after reading the above, that there is a difference between an investigation and a witch-hunt. I'm not saying Palmer is the last word, but it is a caution against believing what you read. I write for a newspaper and I can tell you -- don't believe half of what you read.

[Tom]

Originally posted by andicap
earlier in this thread, I defended Beyer.

I have to say, after reading the above, that there is a difference between an investigation and a witch-hunt. I'm not saying Palmer is the last word, but it is a caution against believing what you read. I write for a newspaper and I can tell you -- don't believe half of what you read.

Does that apply to YOUR column, too???:eek: <G>:eek:

[andicap]

Originally posted by Tom
Does that apply to YOUR column, too???:eek: <G>:eek:


I was talking about MY column.