ROI

[misscashalot]

Over a months time, what's an acceptable ROI for you?

[Tom Barrister]

I don't gauge it by the month. I go by the year. Acceptable ROI (before rebates) is 1.05 for me. Others may have different needs.

[Robert Fischer]

20 cents on every dollar

[Hosshead]

Your ( + ) "acceptable ROI" depends on your number of "plays", and how much monthly/yearly profit is also acceptable to you. The more plays, the more churn.
- "Acceptable ROI" goes down when the number of plays increases.
Rebates are always welcome.

[acorn54]

roi is dependent on win percentage. if you have a 10 percent hit rate for example and a 20 percent roi. you can only bet one percent of your bankroll safely to avoid risk of ruin according to the charts i use.

[singunner]

Acorn,

What charts do you use? I'd imagine there's some sort of simple formula that could give you an idea of how much you can bet given win% and ROI, but a quick Google search didn't turn up anything too helpful. I guess I could create my own analysis, but I've got more important things on the front burner right now.

[JustRalph]

If you are on the plus side, you are doing alright if you ask me. Anything above 1.00 is gravy if you ask me. This game is hard enough......... If I am having fun.......... and break even..........what the hell..........it is cheaper than a bunch of other crap that I have done.

Ask anybody who has owned a boat or an airplane..............no chance on breaking even on those two........... :lol:

[acorn54]

i refer to the charts in the appendix of william quirin's book winning at the races. the appendix on money management, but i'm sure there are other gambling books that talk about risk of ruin as it relates to win or hit rate and the roi.

[rufus999]

I must admit I'm fairly reckless when it comes to money management but I do remember reading about some formula that factors your prime bet amount into your bankroll in order to safeguard against losing streaks. Its either James Quinn or William Quirin. I bet exactas almost primarily and have a -0.14 ROI over the last three months with a 12.50 win pct. My profit/loss margin is -815.20. Playing win bets my ROI is +0.18 with a 26.09 win pct. Profit/loss margin +24.30.

Total bets:

Exactas 2921
Win 46

rufus

[formula_2002]

Over a months time, what's an acceptable ROI for you?
1.00, IF I COULD GET IT.. :)

[singunner]

Rufus and Formula, those were perhaps the two most painfully honest handicapping self-assessments I've ever read on this board. But as long as you're beating the take, you're better than the general public.

[misscashalot]

roi is dependent on win percentage. if you have a 10 percent hit rate for example and a 20 percent roi. you can only bet one percent of your bankroll safely to avoid risk of ruin according to the charts i use.


what does the chart say for 40% win rate and 20% roi?

to be exact I average betting 2 horses in 100 races ( total 200 bets)and win 40% of those races

[formula_2002]

Rufus and Formula, those were perhaps the two most painfully honest handicapping self-assessments I've ever read on this board. But as long as you're beating the take, you're better than the general public.
The pain is eased when you can appreciate things like this:

THE FOLLOWING HORSES HAD VERY POSITIVE ROI'S;
HORSES WHO'S NAME STARTED WITH D,H,J,M,N,P,R,S,AND Y.
THERE WERE 115 "S" HORSES. THE ROI WAS 1.08

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=45468

[acorn54]

what does the chart say for 40% win rate and 20% roi?

to be exact I average betting 2 horses in 100 races ( total 200 bets)and win 40% of those races


chart doesn't have hit rate as high as 40 percent. but if it is of any help the chart has for a 30 percent hit rate and 25 percent roi, betting 8 percent of bankroll gives you a 90 percent chance of avoiding tapping out your bankroll.

[Tom Barrister]

The problem with a Kelly-based system is that it assumes all bankrolls are acceptable, regardless of how much they've built or eroded over time---in other words, if you go on a losing streak and end up with 10% of your bankroll, that's okay by the sytem---the system will simply recommend that you bet less. It also assumes that fractional bets are possible---e.g. if you have $10 left, you can bet 50 cents.

A pure Kelly system is ridiculous---if you have an 80% probability, betting 80% of your bankroll is a good way to end up with 20% of your bankroll in a hurry. Quarter-Kelly (bet-percent-of-bankroll is one-fourth of the horse's probability of winning) seems to be the general consesus. I believe that's still far too high, unless a relatively high risk of ruination is acceptable.

Instead of letting my life be ruled by an alogrithm that forces me to make odd-sized and constantly-changing bets most of the time, I sacrificed a small amount of profit by keeping it simple. I classified my situational plays by probability and bet the following on them:

Up to 10% .025%
10-19% .5%
20-29% 0.75%
30%+ 1%

Amount of bet was rounded to a convenient figure, and I only changed the sizes once a month.

This worked for almost ten years and allowed my bankroll to multiply until it was of the size that my largest bet was the maximum I was comfortable playing. Now the bets don't change, and whatever profit may exist is taken out every six months. In fairness, though, I never touched the bankroll over those ten years, e.g. I had (and still do have) a "day job" that supplied/supplies my income.

Those doing this for a living may have different needs and views.

[rufus999]

If you take a look at my earlier post in this thread it translates into about a thousand bets per month. This allows me to bet small amounts and 'saturation bomb' the tracks on any given day. Its not out of the norm to find me juggling five tracks at a time. I spread myself too thin far too often and 'speed handicap' more than I should. I'm well aware of this. The online betting system has changed my approach and I'm trying to adapt. The best rule of thumb in my opinion is to find an amount you're comfortable with and stick to it. You know what it is. We all do. Its the amount that doesn't prompt you to start gnawing the legs off the tables at post time.
Allow me to add that I always play with a fluctuating bankroll that hovers around the fifty dollar mark. Any surplus immediately gets wired into my B.A.
It forces a more conservative approach but it serves as a fail safe for tapping out big time.

rufus

[Robert Fischer]

say for 40% win rate and 20% roi?

to be exact I average betting 2 horses in 100 races ( total 200 bets)and win 40% of those races
Here is what I use

For $1000 bank

Value = 0.20 = 40%*$5.50-2 = ROI 20%

edgefactor = Value*Hit% = 0.20*40% = .08

edgefactor*10%BANK= Wager = $8win on EACH RACE ($4win on each horse)

adjust the variables as needed



The problem with using a single ROI or value after a month or so and calculating with hindsight, is that it assumes a constant value. Better to make a safe estimate each race and demand your 20% value each time.