Ability-X ratings FLA DERBY 3/29

[jonnielu]

10th -9fD Florida Derby

# / POST ErlSpd / ML/ Composite#

54 3 Da' Tara 99 20 /153 Here is the speedy horse to lug in third.
58 7 B B Frank 97 20 /155
45 12 Big Brown 96 3 /141 Legitimate favorite, couldn't bet against.
69 11 Face The Cat 91 8 /160
53 8 Elysium Fields 91 4 /143 Second best, may show some stones
75 10 Majestic Warrior 89 15 /164
80 1 Fierce Wind 88 6 /168
72 2 Smooth Air 88 12 /160
81 6 Nistle's Crunch 88 10 /169
93 5 Cool Gator 88 20 /181
79 9 Hey Byrn 87 5 /166
289 4 Tomcito 0 12 The horse is from Peru

[pktruckdriver]

I was wondering how you would play this race, as you play super's, right?

I would think that it would be like this:

box 3,7,8,11,12

or


8/3,7,11,12/1,3,4,7,9,11,12/1,3,4,7,9,11,12

and then maybe 2nd and 3rd

This would be 120.00 each way I think, might be too much for this race?

This is just my opinion, how did I do?

Patrick
Learning is how ones becomes better.

[jonnielu]

I was wondering how you would play this race, as you play super's, right?

I would think that it would be like this:

box 3,7,8,11,12

or


8/3,7,11,12/1,3,4,7,9,11,12/1,3,4,7,9,11,12

and then maybe 2nd and 3rd

This would be 120.00 each way I think, might be too much for this race?

This is just my opinion, how did I do?

Patrick
Learning is how ones becomes better.

It's hard to say anything critical of anyone's handful of superfecta combos, except that maybe one is missing. One area where this race differs from the everyday variety is that there is more potential for the four lowest odds to show up in line. So you might not want to go too deep.

I feel that Big Brown and Elysium Fields have distinct advantages in ability, but, with a 1 million purse, there is no next week. You can take for granted that every stable will make the maximum effort today. Strategy will be poured over and tuned to the inf degree according to each of these great trainers experience and up close knowledge of their horse, and their understanding of the GP strip.

"Pace makes the race" is an absolute truism in horse racing, to the greater degree, as distance increases. As horseplayers, we might be able to cash on this event today, but our greatest opportunity will lie in what we can learn from a full field, big purse event where everybody busts a gut in the reach for all that they have in ability, knowledge, and experience.

With this in mind, we've got to take a good look at those horses that we don't know much about here. Da'Tara and BB Frank figure to be the speedsters and they are unproven at this distance. If front end speed could be their only advantage, the stables have nothing to lose with letting them rip. Same with Tomcito from the #4 hole. These three will likely set the crisper pace everyone has been yearning for, perhaps crisp enough to toast a few on the outside that are more faint of heart.

Another motivation for this scenario is that if #3, #4, and #7 go for broke from the gate, the stretch runners may tend to let them go. Big Brown seems to be the only one with enough latitude in ability to do some chasing and still do some catching. But, if Face the Cat is able to keep him outside all of the way, that latitude could get burned up by him having to run 9f, 6 wide. Leaving #8 to a mid-pack trip, just doing his thing, and being very live in the stretch.

I'll have to stay with what I feel is the most in well rounded ability, Big Brown, and Elysium Fields. But, I realize that while all of this is going on, Smooth Air will be looking for some way to mess up everybody's superfecta combos.

jdl

[pktruckdriver]

Ok then maybe the following super's

8/12347,12/12347,12/12347,12 20.00

1st/2nd/3rd 360.00



Now is the payoff worth the investment on this race??


Is there a better way to make these bets?


Patrick

[ryesteve]

So you might not want to go too deep.
Ok then maybe the following super's

8/12347,12/12347,12/12347,12 20.00

Using 6 all the way underneath seems pretty deep to me....

[jonnielu]

Ok then maybe the following super's

8/12347,12/12347,12/12347,12 20.00

1st/2nd/3rd 360.00



Now is the payoff worth the investment on this race??


Is there a better way to make these bets?


Patrick

This isn't my kind of race for super pursuit, hooking up 12, 8 with some various exacta combinations will be as exotic as I will get here. The public is not usually wrong or confused enough in these events to make a large super likely.

jdl