Ability-X stickouts AQU 3/28

[jonnielu]

Ability-X - Aqueduct 3/28/2008 Friday - The horses are listed in order of early speed, and that is the rating on the right. The Ability-X rating is at left. First time starters or foreign shippers are listed in green and their ratings are notable at 150+.

1st - 8fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML

235 2 96 10
230 7 92 20
175 3 92 3 /267
185 5 90 2.5 /275
211 1 88 4.5
220 6 85 3.5
164 4 85 6 /249

#3 and #4 are sticking out a little here, watch out for the #4 drafting on #3 then cruising by.


2nd - 6fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML

313 2 100 2 /413
297 4 94 3.5 /391
353 5 94 8
290 1 94 2.5 /384
320 6 89 10 /419
250 3 85 5 /335


#2 looks hard to beat here, I'll check the board on #6, and #3 won't surprise me with a measure and pass run.

3rd - 8.3fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML

126 5 95 2
47 2 95 3
84 1 91 2.5
63 4 90 6
47 1A 88 2.5
74 3 86 4

When all things are equal, the longer odds (#2), seem to work harder, hard work is a little easier on a fast track too.


4th - 6fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML

399 9 99 30
360 7 95 4
318 1 94 2
325 5 93 8
300 4 93 2.5
349 6 91 8
392 8 87 15
439 3 86 30
614 2 83 20
144 1A 0 2


Kind of a grab bag, but the #4 would be the favorite's longshot counterpart. #9 can get there first too.

5th - 6fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML

370 3 103 5
312 2 96 20
305 1A 95 1.8
292 1 93 1.8
350 5 92 20
265 6 91 2
319 4 90 10
364 8 90 10
261 7 85 8

Could be another speedfest, #2 and #3 have a post advantage on a fast track.


6th - 8fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML

243 2 97 2.5
201 3 96 4
255 6 92 12
199 7 89 3
217 5 89 30
228 1 88 3.5
226 4 87 4.5


7th - 8fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML

269 7 92 6
158 2 91 2.5 /249
211 4 89 4
200 9 89 6
160 1 87 8 /247
192 5 83 3.5
136 6 81 20 /217
163 8 0 20
139 3 0 4


#1 and #6 are sticking out with one firster, the fav will have to earn it.

8th - 8.3fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML

116 3 95 15
56 5 90 1.2
73 4 88 2.5
96 2 87 5
107 1 87 3
If speed has been holding up, we'll have to examine the #3 for upset possibilities.

9th - 6fD

# POST ErlSpd / ML

431 7 99 3
382 8 96 8
402 4 95 12
364 11 94 20
377 3 91 15
383 6 90 3.5
401 2 88 6
305 9 84 4
121 1 0 20
127 5 0 20
134 1A 0 20
132 10 0 20


Anything could happen here, that's good for the #3, #9, and #8, the fav will be in there too, so let's hope the public gets into "bet the fast horse mode".

[pktruckdriver]

Sorry but this is confusing to the naked eye, could you elaborate just a little, please.

I am interested in how they did, but how does one use these figs??


Patrick

[jonnielu]

Sorry but this is confusing to the naked eye, could you elaborate just a little, please.

I am interested in how they did, but how does one use these figs??


Patrick

Well, that's funny Pat, looking at "form" confuses me nowadays. But, I've been re-training my brain and getting my mind right for about a year and a half now. It might take some time to learn how to analyze an Ability-X chart well, but it is the fastest way to learn whats really happening between the rails. Something that is increasing difficult to discern by viewing form. So, I've been weaning myself off of form since the first of the year.
I've chosen this race as an example for a few reasons, one is to answer your "where is the speed" question from a few days back.

As a 5f event, this race turns on speed, it is the single greatest impact factor at this distance, considering the results I ask "where were the speed guys?" Of course, "speed" is not supposed to be an attractive quality on the lawn, which gives me another chance to address supposed to be's. At 5f, the surface is of little consequence.

For my purposes, I like to use color to highlight my Ability-X chart, the chart is laid out according to early speed from top to bottom, and I use four shades of blue to highlight the 4 ML choices. This tells me that those horses generally have "good form". I like to know that much, because through the chart, I am only looking at ability to run.

The number on the left is an overall rating of the last run, it is adjusted for distance, but after awhile you will be able to spot those coming off shorter and longer distances, along with what overall rating/early speed level is a good par for the distance. Such as 320/97 at 6f. You will also start spotting class differences through the numbers when you consider the ability difference between a 300/99 at 6f and another horse at only par of 320/97 at 6f.

There is also a relationship between early speed and overall ability that is pretty much a solid connection.

That is generally, the faster a horse runs early, the slower he runs late. The par performer at 6f - 320/97 might also run a 300/96 or be pushed into 360/99 by another horse capable of 300/98. The pusher would likely pass in the stretch, running a 320/99. Or they might both be nailed at the wire by at late runner putting in a 180/91. That is basically what the two numbers can tell you about the horses run. On this chart you will see that I am playing with a composite number by adding the two together, for general comparison, one to the other. Here's how it works:

3rd- 5fTurf GP 3/28

# POST ErlSpd / ML

467 5 108 10 /575 It's 5f on the grass, speed will be the name of the game, I like to look to the favorite as a benchmark or starting point. He's navy blue, and I have faith that handicappers all over the country have beat their heads against the wall all night deciding that he surely has the best "form" of the bunch. I'll just assume that to be earned by good performances and up close finishes. Since there is something to all of that crap, i'll honor it for now by making him my horse to beat.

318 3 96 3 /414

Okay, #3 is the favorite, but the only thing I see in his favor is an almost par, probably 6f last race. The running line must look good, or there could be a percieved class drop in the PP's, but I see early speed of 96 as a little slow when the wire will be here 1/8th sooner. If I think a horse sticks out for some reason, I like to highlight the number in orange. #3 is still the favorite, but I see no ability that sticks out for 5fTurf.

Now, I'll look to see if any stickout in relation to the favorite. #5 is 12 points faster at 108, but the rating is much higher also at 467. Because #3 is the "form" favorite, I can assume that his 318/96 is a top effort. I can't imagine #5 being able to run a whole lot faster, so I'll also assume that his 467/108 is also a top effort. Now, I'll equalize their performances for purposes of comparison by slowing #5 down 10 points in early speed to 98. This will also reduce his overall by 20 points for each 1 of early speed, or 200. At this rate he is 267/98. I see this as a distinct advantage over a 318/96 favorite. Considering that #5 wouldn't have to run near 108 early to be in front of this crew makes him a slam dunk stickout. The idea that he could be 6 lengths on top out of the gate at 104 early just makes it more of a no brainer.
341 7 92 20 /433

Now that I have a winner penciled in, I'm going to make some exotic considerations, the #7 has only one thing going for him and that is that he is in the top half of the field on early speed. So he sticks out almost none, but, just a little for that.
358 9 91 6 /451

#9 appears to have even less going for him, being 1 point slower early, but the cappers see some reason to make him 4th choice, so I'll keep him in my group for now. He is probably figuring to start like a missile to have a shot from the #9 hole.

324 6 90 15 /414

Now #6 is rated close to the favorite, but I don't think enough of the favorite to go and adopted his step brother, so I'll move down.
299 1 89 20 /388

This brings me to #1, there are many things going for this horse, he sticks out on the rating, looks a little slow, but the composite # looks good in relation to the favorite. The cappers don't think nothing of this horse judging by the 20-1 ML, but I think the 299 overall ability may have gone un-noticed in the "form". The horse sticks out. You may be wondering why there are so many colors here when the horse is 20-1. You might notice that each part of this line is a different shade of blue. This is somehting that I have started to look at for superfecta considerations. This horse is what I call a longshot counterpart. Counterpart to every one of the four ML choices in overall rating and composite #. The #1 gate is an advantage here and this horse could probably pickup some speed without a big penalty to the overall rating. I wouldn't think that he could outrun the #5, but I will dump the favorite and the second choice from exotic consideration, since #1 rates so well in relation to them.

I am sure he has "bad form", and for me, that just makes it more likely that he will run well today.
262 11 87 4 /349

The second choice must really have some hot looking PP's, I doubt that he can even get into it from so far outside with the wire showing up in 5f. I like his longshot counterpart a lot better.
325 2 87 8 /412

The post is good here for #2, but I doubt that the needed giddyup can be summoned. The overall rating is decent, if #1 dies during the warmups.
304 4 84 6 /388

#4 is the third ML choice, so he must have shown some spunk somewhere in the PP's. But his longshot counterpart below is showing some spunk in his overall rating. Seems like #8 may have been working a little harder during the last part of his last, I like that sort of spunk. There is one other positive for #8, he is the slowest horse in the race. Of course, the overall rating and composite is good in relation to the favorite, suggesting that he is similar on ability, but it is also just not safe to bet exotics at GP without including the slowest horse in the race.
324 8 84 8 /408

Understanding this #8 is my fifth stickout for a superfecta wager. He sticks out on ability, but also for being slow. Much slower then the #2, or #11.

#5, cause speed wins at 5f, #7 just because he's in the top half, #9 same thing, and he's fourth choice, #1 because of rating, post position, ability, being longshot counterpart to every ML choice. #8 because of Luman's Law of Past Performances - "Something different will happen today".

5 Hot Zam 77.40 20.80 10.60
9 Manhasset Indian 4.80 4.00
8 St. Galo 7.60

$1 Pick 3 $3,383.40 2-4-5
$2 Daily Doub $636.00 4-5 $1 Exacta $185.70 5-9 $1 Superfecta $14,521.80 5-9-8-1
$2 Trifecta $5,638.00 5-9-8

[pktruckdriver]

Thank you very much.


I have re-read this 5 times and each time it makes a little more sense.

Your color scheme is still a little confusing as to what is what, well maybe not, but the blue shades, maybe.


Now seeing you pick the #5 out as your horse to play was easy for me to Identify after your explantion.

It seems that you also add your #'s together for what purpose, that's where I got a little confused, as the speed nubers are straight forward, and how you lower the "ability number, the 1st#" by subtracting points of speed to get a lower #, why does that not get done automatically, just curious?

I am glad it does not as that you'd never see the true speed numbers if that happened, but then the 1st# would be better though, right?

Well it seems fun to have a new way to look at the horses as I'm in the old way of buying the Paper Form, DRF, sit down with the coffee and get to work
handicapping.

Now today, I'm looking for other ways, such as software programs and other ways to handicap, such as yours, which seem to be pretty good, but more research is definetly needed to evaulate it properly, you must know.

Patrick

[jonnielu]

Thank you very much.


I have re-read this 5 times and each time it makes a little more sense.

Your color scheme is still a little confusing as to what is what, well maybe not, but the blue shades, maybe.


Now seeing you pick the #5 out as your horse to play was easy for me to Identify after your explantion.

It seems that you also add your #'s together for what purpose, that's where I got a little confused, as the speed nubers are straight forward, and how you lower the "ability number, the 1st#" by subtracting points of speed to get a lower #, why does that not get done automatically, just curious?

Adding the numbers [ rating + early speed ] is something that I am playing with to see if it helps for one to the other comparison, or to get a better feel for the run today.

I am glad it does not as that you'd never see the true speed numbers if that happened, but then the 1st# would be better though, right?

They aren't speed numbers, only the early speed figure has much to do with "speed", the overall rating has more to do with the "run" itself. Lower is generally better, but as you work with it, you will start to recognize "strain" in that number. A good par for 6f is 320/97, when the favorite last ran 290/99, that race was a bit of a strain, being out of balance. 280/95 is a more balanced effort showing good condition coming in today. A measured steady run is what you are looking for today, it may be faster then last, but, when last was even and in balance, it will likely be a well measured run today.

This is the running line, you will get a better feel for the last run better in this form then you can by position and beaten lengths. It is extremely difficult to understand 3rd by 5 as better then 1st by 2, but, it may be. When the same run is expressed with these two separate measurements for 8.5f as 100/85, you will start to see that this par represents a very steady measured run at 8.5f. 153/87 is good too, but it is a little choppy compared to 100/85, or 80/84. And not as good as 175/89. The 175/89 will run only a touch easier after running quite a bit faster. Both will offer balanced effort, only one will get there first.

Well it seems fun to have a new way to look at the horses as I'm in the old way of buying the Paper Form, DRF, sit down with the coffee and get to work
handicapping.

The truth is that there is so much of it that is just un-needed, and a great deal of it only serves to confuse and leave many questions un-answered. It can only take you so far.

Now today, I'm looking for other ways, such as software programs and other ways to handicap, such as yours, which seem to be pretty good, but more research is definetly needed to evaulate it properly, you must know.

Patrick

2nd -8fD GP - 3/29
# POST ErlSpd / ML

197 3 97 10 /294
217 10 96 6 /313
224 1 94 15 /318
173 4 93 2.5 /266
188 7 89 4 /277
184 2 87 8 /271
152 5 86 8 /238
236 9 86 12 /322
237 6 84 20 /321
218 8 0 5
7 Handlethetruth 13.60 5.60 4.20
4 Smart Surprise 3.00 2.60
2 Miss Primetime 4.20

$2 Daily Double $29.40 6-7
$1 Exacta $20.00 7-4
$1 Superfecta $284.80 7-4-2-5
$2 Trifecta $171.60 7-4-2

So far, the research tells me the same thing I thought after the first week. The consistency is un-matched in a game that is supposed to have very little consistency. But, it is the consistencies that I've been looking at since 1978.

This favorite was a little strained last, so the #7 takes advantage, while the #2 isn't quick enough to catch either, but does stay in front of #5 who promised to be closing. I can't leave out a firster at 218. Where did the #3 go? A little too fast early, means you have less left at distance.

It is that simple.

jdl

[pktruckdriver]

Wow , you did say you been doing this system of your since 1978.

You must have it perfected by now, and is the consistency there like you thought it would be, well I guess , you're still using, dumb question.


Still, I think I could get use to your way of thinking, and playing, though on that part, I made need a little more learning.


Thanks

Patrick

[jonnielu]

Wow , you did say you been doing this system of your since 1978.

You must have it perfected by now, and is the consistency there like you thought it would be, well I guess , you're still using, dumb question.


Still, I think I could get use to your way of thinking, and playing, though on that part, I made need a little more learning.


Thanks

Patrick

No, the consistencies of horse racing are what I have been tuned to since 1978. Putting that into some form that I can express on paper has been done in the last two years. The consistency of the form it is in above has been observed for just over a year. Altogether, it tells me that racing is not an inconsistent game.

jdl

[Tom]

318 3 96 3 /414

Abilility X = 318
Post = 3
ES = 96
ML = 3

??? = 414 ??

[pktruckdriver]

Just the 2 big numbers 318 plus 96 = 414, the others numbers do not fit into the adding of these numbers, I did get that much.

Patrick

[jonnielu]

318 3 96 3 /414

Abilility X = 318
Post = 3
ES = 96
ML = 3

??? = 414 ??


Hey Tom,

I'm tinkering with the combination number, mostly to see if it consistently identifies the loose group for the superfecta. I'm getting tired of asking 5 idiots and taking the average for 4th. :lol:

And, to see if it can eliminate some of the feel for the likely pace, and how that will affect the various "runs".

I'm also looking to see if the "feel" for the relationship between early speed and the rating can be eliminated to any extent.

jdl