Your most effective angle

[rufus999]

Something I posted on another thread gave me the idea for this. Its simple. Most of us use angles in our handicapping. Certain rules and theories we feel are most effective and time tested. The question is, do you have any one particular angle that you turn to when its crunch time? Like say, in a handicapping contest or when you're down to your last sawbuck and don't want to bum money for car fare home.:D Its ok to be all over the place with your answer granted the variety of races available at most tracks on a daily basis. All I ask is that you be specific if the angle is some pet personal concoction of yours in order that we all can understand it. I'm hoping that this will be an ongoing thread that will benefit us all.

I guess I should start it off.
The bounce. A high percentage rate of horses bounce off a win after a long layoff. Especially so when the win is a hard fought one and they are past the age of four. I like this angle because it can create a false favorite in a field of equally matched horses due to public betting ignorance.

rufus

[rusrious]

Class, surface, distance, speed, jockey/trainer %, money won, race-w/p/s ratio

This is what I am SOPPOSED to do, LOL.. In that order..

When Im focused, Im On...

Eliminate the impossible, then go from there.. Find the donkeys is key.. , JMO

[BIG49010]

A first starter with a series of 58 or 59 works from gate for 5 furlongs, who is bet below 5-1, and looks like a giant truck on the track compared to his competition.

[nobeyerspls]

The most profitable for me has been second lifetime start. It pays megabucks when the first start was awful. It helps if there has been a little time off and the horse must have showed some ability in morning works. A change of equipment, or different surface or distance is a positive and running for new connections is a major plus.

[BIG HIT]

The best angle's i got were from jerry stokes.And won a on line contest and thrid in another.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Effective being the key word. I have told my daughter, that if she ever needs to make money, all she has to do is analyze the Pik3 pools at major tracks with deep pools. Find the horse that is getting disproportionate action in the Will-Pays and is overlaid in the WIN pools. You will have plenty of races in which to find your opportunities, though patience keys the success of this angle. If you observed 4 major tracks in a single day, you should have at least 20 races to analyze, and probably find 3 or 4 VERY useful overlays. It is a lot of hard work, but I have found this to be the strongest weapon in my arsenal.

It isn't so much a handicapping angle as a money management tool, but in essence, you are handicapping the serious investor, and following the money. It definitely simplifies the decision making process.

[OTM Al]

Second lifetime start, with first start evenly run after breaking badly from the rail.

[Tom]

1. Third off a layoff, showed some improvement last out, and back figs are
competitive with today's field

2. Won last by 5 or more, back in under 30 days

3. Second, beaten two or less last out, was 5 or more ahead of the show
horse

4. One of the top 3 Beyers last out, finished out of the money.

[juanepstein]

the quickest horse with the best stamina wins the 7 furlong races. and that would be one turn 7 furlong races.


australia angle- horses running a 2nd start off a 20+ day layoff. the distance on the 1st run back is shorter then hes running for on the 2nd start.

[whyhorseofcourse]

I feel that second time starters who broke there maiden in there first race are always overbet.

I base a lot of bets against that, I have seen plenty of horses being one time wonders.

[Grits]

Asmussen--

NOT when he's odds on, but when he doesn't figure. When questions may remain.

Again too, when he has two horses going in the same race, one is NOT the favorite. Often, this one may be coming, first back, from a lengthy layoff, hence, the better price.

[classhandicapper]

Second lifetime start, with first start evenly run after breaking badly from the rail.

I like this one a bit too. It seems like a lot of firsters do not break well from the rail.

Betting against horses that earned fast figures under optimal conditions.

Betting horses that were outrun or beaten badly in a high quality race that are dropping down to a level where their best recent form is good enough to win.

[Bill Olmsted]

I look for horses going off at even money or less in the PLACE pools. Short priced horses to Place have a built in edge (as a group there are underbet). You need a decent sized bankroll to make this work, and you must be satisfied with scalping a few extra points here and there from the inflated prices you get when a longshot finishes first or second and/or the public underbets a strong favorite to place. I use certain elimination factors to weed out the likely underperformers in the handicapping process. Another plus: Losing streaks are virtually non-existent.

B :)

[wonatthewire1]

races that I stay away from - horse dropping in class but finished ITM in its prior race at a higher level.
Usually they are short priced and not a good bet against - has saved me a lot of money.

I do find that when their odds are higher, can be a decent bet.

[prospector]

I look for horses going off at even money or less in the PLACE pools. Short priced horses to Place have a built in edge (as a group there are underbet). You need a decent sized bankroll to make this work, and you must be satisfied with scalping a few extra points here and there from the inflated prices you get when a longshot finishes first or second and/or the public underbets a strong favorite to place. I use certain elimination factors to weed out the likely underperformers in the handicapping process. Another plus: Losing streaks are virtually non-existent.

B :)
shhhh!

[Bill Olmsted]

Indeed.

B :)

[classhandicapper]

I look for horses going off at even money or less in the PLACE pools. Short priced horses to Place have a built in edge (as a group there are underbet). You need a decent sized bankroll to make this work, and you must be satisfied with scalping a few extra points here and there from the inflated prices you get when a longshot finishes first or second and/or the public underbets a strong favorite to place. I use certain elimination factors to weed out the likely underperformers in the handicapping process. Another plus: Losing streaks are virtually non-existent.

B :)

Gee Wiz Bill do you have be this honest? :rolleyes:

This angle isn't nearly as effective as it used to be since they started implementing net pool pricing. Place prices on short priced favorites have declined between 10 cents and 20 cents on average (which is a huge). In addition, most rebates have been reduced and tracks like NY raised the take 1%. When you add it all up, it's like spinning your wheels now. However, a couple of years ago it was a gravy train with 7% rebates (better at Tradesports with no breakage) and no net pool pricing. I used to average a decent number of bets per week. Now I rarely bother to make one.

[Bill Olmsted]

All I know is that it still works for me just fine. I find anywhere from 2-6 bets a day.

B:)

[Gibbon]

Hidden speed:

4 by 1, 5 by 3, fade to last in stretch and finish with somewhat fast first quarter NOT fastest.
Effective in both sprints and routes.





______________________________
I know nothing about racing and any money I put on a horse is a sort of insurance policy to prevent it winning ~ Frank Richardson

[fmhealth]

Throwing out favorites that look very poor in the paddock. Wet on cool days. head down, no energy at all, coupled with a flat tail.

Also, simply playing the L/S in a five horse field tends to yield numerous boxcar payouts. It's truly remarkable to me how often this occurs.

[eastie]

betting who the little guys likes....:ThmbUp:


homebred ,1st time starter, in for a tag, off a short set (3 or less). They are revved up on the farm and ready to score or at least fire their best shot ,in case they lose them via claim

[grahors]

An old Taulbot angle that produces nicely for me at long odds...not for the win all the time, but across the board with very nice payoffs......
Horse ran within 21days (I stretch this to 30days). Ran 5th, 6th, or 7th at the stretch call (I sometimes move this to the 2nd call) behind by up to 8 lengths. Horse must gain some lengths to the finish and finish 4th or 3rd.
Have fun...Grahors

[BlueShoe]

1.Easy winners with good speed & pace figs steping up and back quickly.
2.Early speed 2 turn routers in 1 turn sprint;better if drop in class.
3.Claimer drops in class after "even" race,ie,out of money,beaten 5-10 lengths.Better if drop 2 or 3 levels.Better still if fav jock switch.
None of the above can be played blindly;all must pass basic analysis.

.

[Kelso]

I look for horses going off at even money or less in the PLACE pools.


Bill,
Very interesting. Am I correct to view this as a reverse bridge-jumper wager? (Even money or less would require 50% or more of the pool?) Do you play the "all except" show angle with bridge jumpers, or do you think this approach trumps it in that pool?

Thank you.

[Heuer]

Horses that have had a three-to-eight-week layoff in the midst of a racing campaign and are now running there second, third or fourth race since returning often run their best races.
Horse Racing Logic by Glendon Jones

I keep this piece of racing wisdom in my mind all the time.

Here's another one:
A clear danger signal in the past performances is a showing that the horse has been in desperate stretch battles for a piece of the purse in two or more recent races.
The Search for the Winning Horse by Richard Sasuly

[Bill Olmsted]

Bill,
Very interesting. Am I correct to view this as a reverse bridge-jumper wager? (Even money or less would require 50% or more of the pool?) Do you play the "all except" show angle with bridge jumpers, or do you think this approach trumps it in that pool?

Thank you.

I will address the "BridgeJumper Angle" more fully later. But first I'd like to clarify that the even-money odds requirement are for the odds in the win pool. I look for 1-1, or less, in the win pool and decide whether or not they are overlays in the place pool.

The BridgeJumper Angle, if used properly is the only mechanical angle that I know of, that can produce a profit over the long run. But you must have access to unlimited funds. More later, It's Saturday morning and the wife is calling...

B :)

[cnollfan]

Two age-related bet-against profiles:
1) A three-year-old at low odds that has failed to improve on its two-year-old form and/or Beyers. Bettors will hammer horses like this in their second and third start as a 3yo, assuming "improvement off a layoff." I think that maturity should have trumped the layoff right off the bat.
2) A seven-year-old or older at low odds that used to have a high winning percentage but has not been winning much lately. If the horse runs reasonably competitively and drops in class he will still get bet heavily but with little chance to win.
Old standby:
3) Horse that won big with a big fig under optimal conditions, stepping up in class, stretching out in distance, and facing increased pace pressure.

[098poi]

From the Handicappers Condition Book a small section on Starter races. Look for those who have already won in a series (of same condition) or those who have performed best (recently) at the highest open claiming. The latter are often overlooked and sometimes win easily.

[boomman]

One of the best "play against" angles I've used over the years is when a short priced favorite is a speed horse in a race loaded with early speed. I'm amazed how many of these plays come up on a weekly basis, and to be specific, you're looking to beat a short priced speed horse that has never shown the ability to run without the lead and either isn't likely to make the lead today or will have to work so hard to do so that it will greatly compromise his chances. It's amazing how profitable the race becomes when you are confident that an 8/5 shot (or less) will be off the board!;)

Boomer

[JohnGalt1]

I'll give you 3 I use with decent results.

1) From Williem L. Scott. The favorite in a maiden race with the fastest 5 furlong workout. I deduct one second from a breezing wo. And the fastest wo should be 3/5ths faster than next fastest.

I figured why just the favorite? If the 4th favorite has the fastest wo, why not play him? Many times I bet 2 horses to win, and in maidens this is sometimes the second horse.

A few years ago I won a pick six in Calif. with a 14-1 maiden claimer with the fastest 5 f wo--the only reason I put the horse on my ticket.

2) From Ray Taulbot. The V last line. Only in sprints. This is lost at least one full length in the stretch and regained momentum. Ex.-- (Lengths back) 3 2 4 3.

3) From Ray Taulbot. The BBB or back bounce back. After a long layoff runs a close up stressful race--where he is within a half length back or in front, then runs a race where he runs well back.

This horse probably didn't bounce from a very fast race, but from a very stressful race

Most will use the last line, especially if at the same level, and throw the horse out. I usually handicap using the pace line from the layoff race.

As you can see, I use methods from others--my basic handicapping I use PCR from Scott, TPR from Sartin's book, and paceline selection from Pizzola--and do my figuring by hand, but I tweak and modify them.

When I buy a new handicapping book, if I find even one new idea that might be worth considering, the $30-40 investment is worth it.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

....and I need to take a limo home......

I will play a horse stepping up in class after a drop and an out-of-money finish. (off claim excluded)

Not a high hit rate percentage, but a great ROI with some very juicy mutuels.

[A. Pineda]

The most profitable for me has been second lifetime start. It pays megabucks when the first start was awful. It helps if there has been a little time off and the horse must have showed some ability in morning works. A change of equipment, or different surface or distance is a positive and running for new connections is a major plus.

I can go beyond the second start if there are throwout races on the page, i.e. runaway winner, bad break, etc.. I also find it helpful, when playing maidens, to mantain a current (weekly) rating of a sire's ability to get precocious foals. This rating is often my main separator.

BTW, a Johannesburg filly that met five of the conditions list by NBP raced at SA on 3/27 and paid $33.60. Now if only I wasn't stuck on that Cape Canaveral FTS that finished up the track...

[Marlin]

One of my favorites, which I call the Victory Speech angle (Strub), is when a speed filled race falls apart and closers dominate. One speed horse finishes far better than the others 4th or 5th. He than comes back without the speed contenders who finished behind him and against the closers who just beat him. A stretch out is an extra bonus.:)

[Kelso]

I will address the "BridgeJumper Angle" more fully later. But first I'd like to clarify that the even-money odds requirement are for the odds in the win pool. I look for 1-1, or less, in the win pool and decide whether or not they are overlays in the place pool.


Thank you for clarifying that for me, Bill.

As to evaluating a Place overlay, do you relate that to a Win odds line? Any rule-of-thumb for the horse's percentage of the Place pool?

Thanks again.

[Kelso]

1) From Williem L. Scott. The favorite in a maiden race with the fastest 5 furlong workout. I deduct one second from a breezing wo. And the fastest wo should be 3/5ths faster than next fastest.

I figured why just the favorite? If the 4th favorite has the fastest wo, why not play him? Many times I bet 2 horses to win, and in maidens this is sometimes the second horse.


JG,
Does it matter if the fastest 5F work is the horse's most recent 5F work ... or can it be the 2nd or 3rd (etc.) 5F back?

Thank you.

[classhandicapper]

All I know is that it still works for me just fine. I find anywhere from 2-6 bets a day.

B:)

I am looking primarily in NY, but no matter how you slice, net pool pricing has slashed returns (as has a reduction in rebates). That much is certain.

[jma]

Dutrow seond start off the layoff in a route is a good angle (Big Brown, Diamond Stripes)...though a little simplistic and you might only get a play every week or two.

[Bill Olmsted]

Take any random sample of AQU races (at least 100 races) and record the win and place payoffs of all horses going off at 1-1 or less. I think you'll find betting to PLACE outperforms WIN betting by 5-6%. That's what I mean when I say that there is an inherent advantage to betting short priced horses to place. Add some decent handicapping into the mix and you've got a positive expectation strategy.

B :)

[ryesteve]

Take any random sample of AQU races (at least 100 races) and record the win and place payoffs of all horses going off at 1-1 or less.
Random? Let's just look at all of them. Going back to the start of the year, you're right, place has been more profitable than win on these horses... but they're still losing more than 14% in the place spot; and when the hit% is already 68%, it's not easy to improve that enough to turn -14% into profit.

[NormanTD]

Take any random sample of AQU races (at least 100 races) and record the win and place payoffs of all horses going off at 1-1 or less. I think you'll find betting to PLACE outperforms WIN betting by 5-6%. That's what I mean when I say that there is an inherent advantage to betting short priced horses to place. Add some decent handicapping into the mix and you've got a positive expectation strategy.

B :)

Bill, may we assume that we could take a random sample of ANY TRACK to see if this works? What I'm asking is the phenomenon is not (or may not be) unique to AQU. I'm sure I need to check my own records, I just want to make sure it's not a singular track occurance.

[Bill Olmsted]

Bill, may we assume that we could take a random sample of ANY TRACK to see if this works? What I'm asking is the phenomenon is not (or may not be) unique to AQU. I'm sure I need to check my own records, I just want to make sure it's not a singular track occurance.


It seems to work at most tracks. However, at places like AQU and in Canada where there is nickle breakage, it seems to work better. I've just run 340 races at AQU (1-1 or less) and found the win return was -10.7% and the corresponding Place return was just -6.1%. Not bad with no handicapping.

[dav4463]

I like horses that got beat pretty bad last time out at a higher class than they are used to and drop today to a level or two higher than their race of two races ago. It's a drop, but still at a higher level than they are used to. Sometimes, it's just enough of a drop to put them in a winning spot.

[ryesteve]

I've just run 340 races at AQU (1-1 or less) and found the win return was -10.7% and the corresponding Place return was just -6.1%. Not bad with no handicapping.
Which 340 races? The -14% I'm seeing since the start of the year covers 136 races. If I Iook at Sep to Dec of last year, there's another 140, and those are also -14%. Going farther back to May (assuming you mean all NYRA and not just Aqueduct), there's another 204, and yep, those are also at -14%. So from what time period are you pulling races where these even money and less horses are performing so much better than they have over the past 11 months?

[LutherCalvin]

Go with the speed when there is no speed to pick up the speed.

[Robert Fischer]

I follow all the leaderboard horses, all the horses popular with the fans, especially any horse that the fans love that strikes me as being ordinary.
The vulture approach.

[JohnGalt1]

JG,
Does it matter if the fastest 5F work is the horse's most recent 5F work ... or can it be the 2nd or 3rd (etc.) 5F back?

Thank you.

He said to use the fastest for the last 30 days. I don't care if the horse has had a race since the workout.

A 59 wo 25 days ago also inflates the price.

Something I forgot to add. If no horse has a fast work out or many have the same fast workout I don't highlight anyone. My definition of a fast workout is usually 1:01 or faster or a slower time that is a, or close to, a bullet. Ex. 1:02.2-- 3 of 23 on a slower track like Calder.

Also for 2 year olds where none have worked 5 I will use the fastest 4f wo.

[classhandicapper]

Which 340 races? The -14% I'm seeing since the start of the year covers 136 races. If I Iook at Sep to Dec of last year, there's another 140, and those are also -14%. Going farther back to May (assuming you mean all NYRA and not just Aqueduct), there's another 204, and yep, those are also at -14%. So from what time period are you pulling races where these even money and less horses are performing so much better than they have over the past 11 months?

I've been tracking this in NY for over 3 years. I tracked it at GP, SA, DMR, HOL, OAK, and a few other places for awhile also. (all large tracks that could support large wagers and where odds would not shift sharply late)

Place betting tends to outperform win betting on short priced horses a bit.

I can't give you too many details without blowing my whole strategy (sorry I'm not willing to do that). But here are some insights.

There are some very basic rules that can get you fairly close to break even without any handicapping at all. With a rebate you wind up plus or minus a few % depending the on track take, breakage, rebate size etc... If you develop some skill at the specifics of place betting, you can make profits.

A few years ago it was like taking candy from a baby.

However, net pool pricing REDUCED PAYOFFS on short priced horses by between 10 and 20 cents. That's a massive disadvantage when payoffs are in the $2.30 - $3.00 range. In addition, NY raised it's take 1% and most rebates have fallen from 7% to lower levels. When you add it all up, it's no longer very lucrative. When you do have an edge it's small and there are fewer profitable opportunities.

At one point in late 2005 and 2006 place betting had actually become a primary source of profits me. Now it's a total non-event. I'm sure I could find more opportunities if I was willing to search for them nationally every day, but it's simply not worth the time and energy for me. The returns are too low. When I stumble into one, I play just to get a little action and to grind out a few extra dollars for the year. Other than that, IMO it's a waste NOW.

[ryesteve]

Place betting tends to outperform win betting on short priced horses a bit.Agreed...


However, net pool pricing REDUCED PAYOFFS on short priced horses by between 10 and 20 cents. That's a massive disadvantage when payoffs are in the $2.30 - $3.00 range. In addition, NY raised it's take 1%Yes, these two factors would certainly seem to explain why I'm seeing -14%, rather than -6%. I think we're on the same page here.

[Bill Olmsted]

Agreed...

Yes, these two factors would certainly seem to explain why I'm seeing -14%, rather than -6%. I think we're on the same page here.


My apologies. I gave the wrong figures in my previous post. The races I quoted a 6% loss for were NOT for just AQU. The 6% (Place) loss was for ALL tracks from March 19-24, or thereabouts. That includes the small tracks (thoroughbreds and quarterhorses) were the pools can be small and the place prices inflated due to the often non-efficient distribution of money acorss the pools. Of course, at small tracks, a bet of any substantial amount will impact the odds. Still there is good chipping away to be done in the place and show pools at the smaller venues if you have the patience and are willing to bet smaller amounts. Definielty not for plungers.

B :)

[ryesteve]

My apologies. I gave the wrong figures in my previous post. The races I quoted a 6% loss for were NOT for just AQU.
Ah, ok, that would explain it... yes, you often see some very odd totals in the smaller track pools, and I can imagine you'd find more opportunities for there for this type of strategy.

[Light]

3. Second, beaten two or less last out, was 5 or more ahead of the show
horse

When I last tracked this angle it broke even blind betting 100 races. My requirements are not quite the same as yours but I agree with the beaten less than 2 lengths part.My computer program automatically searches for this angle. Over the weekend card at Aqu there were 5 qualifiers. 4 won and the 5th showed. Prices were small. $8,$5.40,$5,$3,40. With a little datamining,this could be a profitable angle on its own.

[maxwell]

Dumping horses that have lost too many times on my radar screen [ 8/1 -> 12/1 ]. If a horse is 0 for 6 @ 9/1, he's toast.

I don't care if a horse wins three races in a row @ 2/1 ... it's what they do in my strike zone that counts. I draw the line at four playable losses.

[how cliche]

The angles I prefer are connection specific. I'm unable to explain why most people don't care to learn this method of prognosticating. For the purpose of this thread I'll post an angle that gets you one or two fair priced winners a month in Northern California. The most inattentive handicapper should be able to hit after it's given away with a road map.

*William E Morey claims a horse for either Lamonte Isom, The Joseph P. Morey Revocable Trust or William E Morey.

*The runner returns to the worktab within 11 days and posts more than one bullet workout separated by 7 days or less.

*He's entered in the first race after the claim on significant class rise. If claimed for 10,000 he comes back for 25,000, for 25,000-AOC50,000, etc.

*The rider on his back is either Roberto Gonzalez or Kyle Kaenel.

[bobphilo]

One of my favorites, which I call the Victory Speech angle (Strub), is when a speed filled race falls apart and closers dominate. One speed horse finishes far better than the others 4th or 5th. He than comes back without the speed contenders who finished behind him and against the closers who just beat him. A stretch out is an extra bonus.:)

Beyer describes this in one of his books as "lost the race but won the duel". When a horse gets involved in a battle for the early lead in fast fractions with 1 or more other horses and losses to a closer but beats all the other speed horses. Horse is obvious good play if he comes back in race as lone speed but can also be a good bet even against same speed horses if field lacks strong closer.

Bob

[windstone]

gentlemen, i have never made a post on this site, but visit it frequently. i am not a heavy player, but i do enjoy the challenge of trying to handicap this very complicated game and reading everything i can about the game. just yesterday morning i was reading this post on angles. i had always looked at works but not to any great lengths. went to my otb yesterday and made a five dollar exacta bet at turf paradise in the 8th keying the nine, which i thought had very good workouts, and five across. the nicest exacta and win bet i have ever made. :lol: just thought i would share. thank you all.
jb

[njcurveball]

Let It Ride. :ThmbUp:

[Norm]

Here's an old one from back in the '50s. It was pretty effective then. Off-track wagering has weakened it's effect at major circuit tracks but it may still work at smaller tracks that are not being inundated with off-site money.

The angle is for the last race on the card. A lot of folks have gone home by then and those still at the track are trying to 'get even' which often results in stabbing at long shots. This forces the price on long shots down and, conversely, the odds on the morning-line favorite are pushed up. It's the one race where the M-L favorite is likely to be an overlay. If the M-L favorite is showing any signs of life at all, you may get 7-2 on a horse that should have been 7-5.

Watch this one if you are working at a small track, there may still be some mileage left in this old one.

[RaceBookJoe]

Here's an old one from back in the '50s. It was pretty effective then. Off-track wagering has weakened it's effect at major circuit tracks but it may still work at smaller tracks that are not being inundated with off-site money.

The angle is for the last race on the card. A lot of folks have gone home by then and those still at the track are trying to 'get even' which often results in stabbing at long shots. This forces the price on long shots down and, conversely, the odds on the morning-line favorite are pushed up. It's the one race where the M-L favorite is likely to be an overlay. If the M-L favorite is showing any signs of life at all, you may get 7-2 on a horse that should have been 7-5.

Watch this one if you are working at a small track, there may still be some mileage left in this old one.

That old time angle was also great for the place and show players since those slots paid even less but were decent proportionately. Just like the old-time "odds-on favorite to place" angle. I say old time but I will use it if I sense an overlay. Good luck to all on their personal betting angles. rbj