jonnielu
03-27-2008, 11:59 AM
Ability-X - Aqueduct 3/27/2008 Thursday - The horses are listed in order of early speed, and that is the rating on the right. The Ability-X rating is at left. First time starters or foreign shippers are listed in green and their ratings are notable at 150+.
A very high percentage of these first time starters, win and hit the board for exotics, especially when fields are weak or chaotic. For races that include a coupled entry, the program #'s may be different from the post positions listed here.
In general the Ability-X rating on the left expresses the horses run, with lower numbers being generally better. While early speed is always a consideration, it's connection to the Ability-X rating is mostly a hard connection in the case of horses at the top of the chart. It's bearing on the overall ability of the horse in question more or less significant dependant on distance, and surface.
Early speed is more an advantage at shorter distance and harder surface. It becomes a handicap at longer distances and deeper surfaces. Comparing the Ability-X chart to results at your home track will quickly tell you how your track leans.
As you can see, the chart is laid out according to early speed.
I don't look at form anymore, I prefer to see the form through the filter of Ability-X ratings, so that I am not dissuaded from longer priced horses by "bad form". Seeing the race through the Ability-X chart is a skill that you can train your brain for in a few weeks, and it is much better then filtering your analysis through "good form" that is past. Horses always run consistent with ability and ability is often hidden by what is commonly called "form". Because of this, Ability-X, without form, shows better how competitive and/or chaotic any particular race may be.
I'll go through some of today's "stickouts" at AQU with why they stick out to help you get a feel for analyzing Ability-X, and leave you with a few to do. Let's see how co-operative the results may be. I don't know the surface well, but I have some suspicions.
1st - 8fD
# POST ErlSpd / ML
193 1 100 2 scr
201 2 97 4
274 4 92 30
217 6 92 15
179 5 91 3
199 3 90 6
210 7 89 3.5
142 1A 87 2
In the first, it looks like the entry has an idea for snagging a purse one way, or the other. If the #1 has something left from the last outing, the fast surface can help to squeeze out one more on the lead. This has to be the "good form" horse of the two with some speed. If #1 is a little worse for the wear from last out, #1A will be able to measure for an even run in an attempt to find the wire first also. #2, #5, probably have some good form factors going for them, and can get in there and gum things up for the entry unless #1 is still on top of his game.
#3 however is the one you would want to check out for financial interest, I'd have to figure that his form can't look as good as the choices, so if he happened to take money to 4 -1, I'd think it wasn't the "form- minded" doing it, and accept that information as sound and make a win bet. The potential for #7 disturbs me enough to pass if I can't get the further information I want on the #3.
2nd - 6fD
# POST ErlSpd / ML
411 1 98 12
342 5 97 3.5
366 3 97 2
483 7 96 30
375 2 95 5
326 6 93 3
488 8 93 12
120 4 0 15
I'd say the fav is vulnerable here, and once he's pounded to 6/5 who cares anyway. I could dabble with a #5 - #6 exacta because they are a nudge better then the fav, but I'd really like to see one with a clear advantage. If the #1 takes a few bucks, I'll throw him in, but I'm looking for 5 - 1 here because the crowd at big A seems to dig percieved speed and inside posts. Not without reason either.
3rd - 6fD
# POST ErlSpd / ML
333 1 98 3.5
334 3 98 3 scr
311 2 97 4 scr
291 4 96 2.5
309 5 93 6
256 6 86 12
How about a six horse chaos race? Equality breeds chaos, #1 thru #4 are right on par for a 6f run, I would need to see a couple of them limp to the gate to any has a distinct advantage, but, add 1 pole and I would be all over the #6 and the #5. Question here is, does either one have some giddyup that they didn't show last out. I'll look to the board for an answer from those that have this knowledge, if I had to win bet, I would expect the unexpected with #5, or take them all in a tri with faith that the public won't bet enough on the right one. They might, but, I wouldn't expect it.
4th - 8fD
# POST ErlSpd / ML
273 3 96 2.5
198 8 96 2
258 2 95 5
228 5 92 4
263 7 92 12
297 9 88 15
278 6 87 50
288 4 86 30
303 1 81 10
127 1A 0 10
I'd be tempted to look at the form here, I'd want to know why the #3 is second choice here, has he made the early speed move in his last??? And, if so, is the #8 far enough outside at a mile. I can't get any help here from the board, the public would likely pound #8 and #3 equally. #2 and #5 will likely take some cash too with good form. I would probably spectate here. The #1 disturbs me somewhat, at the level of early speed last (81) his 303 suggests that he may have been running pretty hard at the end. Compared to the fav, his 303 would be a better fit to early speed of 101. He sticks out because of this, he must have some "form" positives to be listed at 10 - 1, instead of 20 - 1. If I can find some money on the board for this horse, and he comes out and warms up like I like to see. I'm in up to my elbows.
5th - 6fD
# POST ErlSpd / ML
285 4 97 2
364 1 96 4
314 3 96 8
300 2 94 3
353 5 93 15
285 7 92 5
289 6 89 10
248 1A 85 4
6th - 6fD
# POST ErlSpd / ML
423 4 97 30
411 8 96 6
371 1 96 8
317 11 95 3.5
329 6 94 4.5
350 3 93 12
313 9 82 8
157 2 0 5
185 5 0 12
157 7 0 12
160 10 0 15
7th - 8.5fD
# POST ErlSpd / ML
24 10 90 10 scr
51 7 90 15
103 4 90 8
90 6 87 6
112 2 85 5
71 5 85 2
112 1 84 8
115 9 84 10
113 8 83 4
124 3 82 20
Are the three on top sprinters? If so, I'm letting the board guide me here to a possible bet against the fav, which looks solid. #1, #2, #3, and #8 are nice steady runners for this distance too, they will collide with the speedsters for a hard to predict super.
8th - 6fD
# POST ErlSpd / ML
399 4 98 4.5
322 5 97 15
321 1 96 3
252 6 95 3.5
245 1A 94 3
272 2 93 6
236 3 92 1.6
9th - 6fD
# POST ErlSpd / ML
443 3 100 5
402 7 96 20 scr
381 5 96 6
416 10 95 30
392 8 93 8
378 9 93 3
333 1 90 2.5
476 6 89 30 scr
376 4 86 8
134 2 0 10
A very high percentage of these first time starters, win and hit the board for exotics, especially when fields are weak or chaotic. For races that include a coupled entry, the program #'s may be different from the post positions listed here.
In general the Ability-X rating on the left expresses the horses run, with lower numbers being generally better. While early speed is always a consideration, it's connection to the Ability-X rating is mostly a hard connection in the case of horses at the top of the chart. It's bearing on the overall ability of the horse in question more or less significant dependant on distance, and surface.
Early speed is more an advantage at shorter distance and harder surface. It becomes a handicap at longer distances and deeper surfaces. Comparing the Ability-X chart to results at your home track will quickly tell you how your track leans.
As you can see, the chart is laid out according to early speed.
I don't look at form anymore, I prefer to see the form through the filter of Ability-X ratings, so that I am not dissuaded from longer priced horses by "bad form". Seeing the race through the Ability-X chart is a skill that you can train your brain for in a few weeks, and it is much better then filtering your analysis through "good form" that is past. Horses always run consistent with ability and ability is often hidden by what is commonly called "form". Because of this, Ability-X, without form, shows better how competitive and/or chaotic any particular race may be.
I'll go through some of today's "stickouts" at AQU with why they stick out to help you get a feel for analyzing Ability-X, and leave you with a few to do. Let's see how co-operative the results may be. I don't know the surface well, but I have some suspicions.
1st - 8fD
# POST ErlSpd / ML
193 1 100 2 scr
201 2 97 4
274 4 92 30
217 6 92 15
179 5 91 3
199 3 90 6
210 7 89 3.5
142 1A 87 2
In the first, it looks like the entry has an idea for snagging a purse one way, or the other. If the #1 has something left from the last outing, the fast surface can help to squeeze out one more on the lead. This has to be the "good form" horse of the two with some speed. If #1 is a little worse for the wear from last out, #1A will be able to measure for an even run in an attempt to find the wire first also. #2, #5, probably have some good form factors going for them, and can get in there and gum things up for the entry unless #1 is still on top of his game.
#3 however is the one you would want to check out for financial interest, I'd have to figure that his form can't look as good as the choices, so if he happened to take money to 4 -1, I'd think it wasn't the "form- minded" doing it, and accept that information as sound and make a win bet. The potential for #7 disturbs me enough to pass if I can't get the further information I want on the #3.
2nd - 6fD
# POST ErlSpd / ML
411 1 98 12
342 5 97 3.5
366 3 97 2
483 7 96 30
375 2 95 5
326 6 93 3
488 8 93 12
120 4 0 15
I'd say the fav is vulnerable here, and once he's pounded to 6/5 who cares anyway. I could dabble with a #5 - #6 exacta because they are a nudge better then the fav, but I'd really like to see one with a clear advantage. If the #1 takes a few bucks, I'll throw him in, but I'm looking for 5 - 1 here because the crowd at big A seems to dig percieved speed and inside posts. Not without reason either.
3rd - 6fD
# POST ErlSpd / ML
333 1 98 3.5
334 3 98 3 scr
311 2 97 4 scr
291 4 96 2.5
309 5 93 6
256 6 86 12
How about a six horse chaos race? Equality breeds chaos, #1 thru #4 are right on par for a 6f run, I would need to see a couple of them limp to the gate to any has a distinct advantage, but, add 1 pole and I would be all over the #6 and the #5. Question here is, does either one have some giddyup that they didn't show last out. I'll look to the board for an answer from those that have this knowledge, if I had to win bet, I would expect the unexpected with #5, or take them all in a tri with faith that the public won't bet enough on the right one. They might, but, I wouldn't expect it.
4th - 8fD
# POST ErlSpd / ML
273 3 96 2.5
198 8 96 2
258 2 95 5
228 5 92 4
263 7 92 12
297 9 88 15
278 6 87 50
288 4 86 30
303 1 81 10
127 1A 0 10
I'd be tempted to look at the form here, I'd want to know why the #3 is second choice here, has he made the early speed move in his last??? And, if so, is the #8 far enough outside at a mile. I can't get any help here from the board, the public would likely pound #8 and #3 equally. #2 and #5 will likely take some cash too with good form. I would probably spectate here. The #1 disturbs me somewhat, at the level of early speed last (81) his 303 suggests that he may have been running pretty hard at the end. Compared to the fav, his 303 would be a better fit to early speed of 101. He sticks out because of this, he must have some "form" positives to be listed at 10 - 1, instead of 20 - 1. If I can find some money on the board for this horse, and he comes out and warms up like I like to see. I'm in up to my elbows.
5th - 6fD
# POST ErlSpd / ML
285 4 97 2
364 1 96 4
314 3 96 8
300 2 94 3
353 5 93 15
285 7 92 5
289 6 89 10
248 1A 85 4
6th - 6fD
# POST ErlSpd / ML
423 4 97 30
411 8 96 6
371 1 96 8
317 11 95 3.5
329 6 94 4.5
350 3 93 12
313 9 82 8
157 2 0 5
185 5 0 12
157 7 0 12
160 10 0 15
7th - 8.5fD
# POST ErlSpd / ML
24 10 90 10 scr
51 7 90 15
103 4 90 8
90 6 87 6
112 2 85 5
71 5 85 2
112 1 84 8
115 9 84 10
113 8 83 4
124 3 82 20
Are the three on top sprinters? If so, I'm letting the board guide me here to a possible bet against the fav, which looks solid. #1, #2, #3, and #8 are nice steady runners for this distance too, they will collide with the speedsters for a hard to predict super.
8th - 6fD
# POST ErlSpd / ML
399 4 98 4.5
322 5 97 15
321 1 96 3
252 6 95 3.5
245 1A 94 3
272 2 93 6
236 3 92 1.6
9th - 6fD
# POST ErlSpd / ML
443 3 100 5
402 7 96 20 scr
381 5 96 6
416 10 95 30
392 8 93 8
378 9 93 3
333 1 90 2.5
476 6 89 30 scr
376 4 86 8
134 2 0 10