Woodside Associates - Race Of The Week

[john del riccio]

The Henry Kuck Ratings for The Florida Derby this saturday at GPP are available at the link below. Good Luck.

John

http://www.woodsideassociates.com/r...heweek/rotw.pdf (http://www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf)

[john del riccio]

Here are my initial impressions of the field.

FIERCE WIND has shown improvement in each of his five career starts. He owns a win over the GP surface at todays 1 1/8 mi distance, showed a new found ability to rate last out, has trained crisply since his last race 6 weeks ago, and draws a cozy inside post.

SMOOTH AIR may have gotten to FIERCE WIND last out had the rider attemped to save some ground approaching the 1/4 pole. That was hist first try around two turns and he should improve today; his works have been long and strong since his last race. He must carry more weight today as he picks up 4 pounds.

DA' TARA is another Zito runner who is certainly being thrown to the wolves here. He has a win at today's track/distance but it was in the slop. He did improve last out but this spot looks to be overly ambitious.

TOMCITO is a Peruvian invader that hasn't run since November and has been training very well. He has only seen defeat once in five starts, has a win at 1 1/4 mi. in a Group-I as a 2yo, and is a very big mystery. No running style can be determined, no betting action given, no real clue on how those Peruvian races stacked up. A win here would certainly be a statement.

COOL GATOR made a solid return to the races as a 3yo at todays distance and surface. He has trained well since and did show some talent as a 2yo at WO but that was over an artificial surface. Improvement should be expected today.

NISTLE'S CRUNCH is a very consistent colt who showed nice improvement last out at todays distance/surface. He gets an interesting jock switch to Leparoux and has had two solid drill since his last race but will also need to pick up weight today.

BB FRANK really woke up last time in a 1 turn mile after being claimed away from Zito/lapenta despite a troubled trip. He has never been around two turns and never rsaced past a mile; the fact that he has had no works longer than a 1/2 mile since his most recent start is puzzling.

ELYSIUM FIELDS has had two very good races as a 3yo improving both times. His last race showied a dramatic improvement in his pace rating which could be signaling significant development going forward. His four workouts since his last effort have all been stellar and even though he picks up 6lb off his last race he has won with 122 lbs at todays distance/surface.

HEY BYRN has run two impressive races as a 3yo winning both by a combined 20 lengths; both in allowance company vs. small fields. He has had two good works since his last effort, gets a switch from Prado to Lezcano and facing his toughest competition to date.

MAJESTIC WARRIOR was very flat last out although he did have a very wide trip. No works past a 1/2 mile is questionable considering todays 1 1/8 mi. distance.

FACE THE CAT has two wins as a 3yo both around 1 turn with his last being at a mile. Pletcher has taken over for Pitts after this colt was privately purchased following his race which was an excellent effort. This colt was given almost two months off priotr to todays race following a series of consistent 5f drills.

BIG BROWN debuted as a 2yo in impressive fashion winning impressively in a 2 turn grass race at SAR last summer earning a figure that the majority of this field has only been able to reach as 3yo's. He proved that he was not just a turf horse when he showed up at GP six months later and won a 1 turn mile allowance race while rating through a solid pace and drawing off when asked as the odds-on favorite. He has had two sharp drills since and post 12 seems to be the challenge for Desormeaux.

[Robert Fischer]

Fierce Wind may get the perfect trip...

Elysium Fields and Big Brown trying to do something around the 2nd turn.


Skeptical, but would love to see Tomcito run a strong race and finish well.


1 million scenarios here, but I expect Fierce Wind to be in the top 3

[onefast99]

Big brown will break the 0-29 mark set on the horses in post 10-12 during the GP meet. This is a very strong horse ggod jockey and trainer combo, thats my pick.

[joanied]

Guess I'll add my picks;

Elysium Feilds (Tagg should have him just right)
Fierce Wind (should put in a very good one here)
Big Brown (if the pace is right, he'll be coming)
Hey Byrn (just because)

I'm really just looking for a good, honest race...but think Elysuim Fields is the class of the race.

my 2 cents :jump:

[russowen77]

Guess I'll add my picks;

Elysium Feilds (Tagg should have him just right)
Fierce Wind (should put in a very good one here)
Big Brown (if the pace is right, he'll be coming)
Hey Byrn (just because)

I'm really just looking for a good, honest race...but think Elysuim Fields is the class of the race.

my 2 cents :jump:
Add my voice to your first two picks. I like BB but he has a lot to overcome on that track. I have been sent Elysium fields works video. Lousy quality from a phone but hot damn does he look good when he hits a very high cruising speed. You never know till the lights come on, so to speak, but that colt sure puts a gleam in my eye.

[cj]

TOMCITO is a Peruvian invader that hasn't run since November and has been training very well. He has only seen defeat once in five starts, has a win at 1 1/4 mi. in a Group-I as a 2yo, and is a very big mystery. No running style can be determined, no betting action given, no real clue on how those Peruvian races stacked up. A win here would certainly be a statement.


Tomcito is a big time closer. His last couple are on Youtube. If I remember, he has already won at 12f.

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[Zaf]

WOW , very impressive. Thanks for the links !!!!!!!!

Z

[russowen77]

Has anyone been able to get a true read on Tomcito's splits. I don't understand the poles well enough. When he wants to run it sure seems like he can. Thanks in advance.

[Kelso]

1 - Tomicito

2 - Elysium Fields

3 - Big Brown

4 - Fierce Wind

[john del riccio]

Tomcito is a big time closer. His last couple are on Youtube. If I remember, he has already won at 12f.







CJ.

Thanks for posting the video's.

John

[joanied]

Thanks for those videos....he does look impressive, but I wonder what the splits were....looked like they were under a strong hold until the stretch run....but looks like Tomcito is genuine.
This is going to be a very interesting race to watch.

[john del riccio]

CLASS:
======

DA'TARA is trying much tougher and even though his pace rating dramatically improved last out, he appears to be distance challenged. His variant ratings going longer are two lengths inferior to his 7f sprint in his debut. He may be up against it here.

BB FRANK is also trying to tackle tougher competition and comes out of the same race having beaten DA 'TARA improving both his pace and variant ratings in the process. However, he must also negotiate two turns today.



PACE:
=====

The horses that have shown the most early ability are ELYSIUM FIELDS (76 pace rating around two turns), BIG BROWN (76 pace rating in a one turn mile), and SMOOTH AIR (75 variant rating going 7f). SMOOTH AIR draws inside and is a tractable sort having rated last out in his initial two turn effort. He actually shows higher pace ratings sprinting 7f and his most recent 7f drill indicates that he may be put closer to the pace today. BIG BROWN draws the same post that BARBARO drew for this race two years ago so it should be obvious what kind of horse/effort is required to get the job done from out there at GP. He has the look of a horse with nothing but
up-side but he will also need to negotiate two turns today and additional weight along with the post position disadvantage. ELYSIUM FIELDS not only improved his variant rating last out going 1 1/8 mi., he dramatically improved his pace rating as well. With younger horses, this type of improvement signals maturity and future development as well. His workouts since
his last start confirm this fact. Since he does not need the lead to perform well, any pace scenario should be acceptable to him.



VARIANT:
========

The horses that have shown the most talent are :


MAJESTIC WARRIOR (78 variant rating going 7f)
BIG BROWN (77 variant rating going i mile around one turn)
ELYSIUM FIELDS (76 variant rating going 1 1/8 mi. around two turns)
FACE THE CAT (76 variant rating going i mile around one turn)
HEY BYRN (75 variant rating going 1 1/8 mi. around two turns)
FIERCE WIND (75 variant rating going 1 1/16 mi. around two turns)
NISTLES CRUNCH (74 variant rating going 1 1/8 mi. around two turns)


MAJESTIC WARRIOR won a 7f stake impressively vs. a small field, came back 5 weeks later and was soundly beaten in a one turn mile against WAR PASS & PYRO as the odds on favorite to end his 2yo season. He took some betting support in his 3yo debut, got a wide trip, and now loses Gomez to boot. He lost alot of ground in the final 1/8 mile and now tries a further distance which is not a good thing. Aside from MAJESTIV WARRIOR, the other five horses mentioned all look to be going forward.

FIERCE WIND drifted out in his last start which is typcially not a good sign. His very sharp 1/2 mile drill coupled with his inside post may indicate he will be forwardly placed today. However, he has not shown the same level of pace talent as the three horses mentioned previusly. He did show the ability to rate last out and improved as well but also must pick up 6lbs off that effort.

FACE THE CAT's improvment in his last start was obviously what spurred the private purhase of him luring him away from Pitts (of CURLIN fame). However, FACE THE CAT did win hi slast race on the lead and hi space rating in that race was not as good as the pace ratings of the likely pace makers. He did show the abity to come from off the pace sprinting but rating off the pace going longer around two turns is a different scenario. His lack of two turn experience coupled with his outside post and added weight makes
for a significant obstacle.

HEY BYRN is a solid contender here as both of his 3yo starts have been quite good. Even though I respect, Lescano as a very good rider, I can't help but question why Plesa didn't attempt to attract a top tier rider when Proda didn't take the mount.
NISTLES CRUNCH shows the unusual curcumstance of adding blinkers off a win. McPeek is a schrewd horsemen and he has likely worked this colt in them both times since his last start. His 2yo races were all very consistent with respect to his variant ratingsbut his initial 3yo start showe a dramatic improvement in his pace rating vs FACE THE CAT (similiar to ELYSIUM FIELDS) which signaled furure development was imminent. He followed through with a break-out effort around two turns in his next start winning at 1 1/8. Leparoux taking the mount is a positive sign and another move forward puts him in the
thick of it.

BIG BROWN would be flattering the late BARBARO with a victory here. He certainly has proven to be a very talented horse by earning very solid ratings in his only two starts while it has tken most of the field many races to attain that performance level. Only a lack of seasoning nd having not faced some adversity need be conqured to stamp him as a significant contender going forward.

SMOOTH AIR retains his regular rider in Cruz who hopefully learned something from his race at TAM where I beleive he was likely the best horse that day. This is his 2nd start around two turns, and draws inside following a series of very interesting workouts.


ELYSIUM FIELDS is coming into this race as good as a racehorse can. He is improving in all aspects of his form, has displayed that talent in his morning drills since his last race, and has a solid foundation. He is the horse to beat.



ELYSIUM FIELDS 3-1
SMOOTH AIR 8-1
BIG BROWN 4-1
NISTLES CRUNCH 10-1
HEY BYRN 10-1

Good Luck,
John

PS No mention of TOMCITO because I honestly have no solid opinion other than many the other 3yo making their 3yo debuts in a triple crown prep race have not returned to their 2yo form.

[Premier Turf Club]

FWIW, My guesstimate on Tomcito's Beyers in Peru are about 86-88. I have had good success making figures on South American horses using country specific stakes pars. Peru is tough because not many from there run in the US.

What Tomcto has going for him it's his first start at 3YO and he could improve. What he's got going against him is that GR I races in Peru are typically equivalent to NW1 on the NY or S. Cal circuits.

[john del riccio]

FWIW, My guesstimate on Tomcito's Beyers in Peru are about 86-88. I have had good success making figures on South American horses using country specific stakes pars. Peru is tough because not many from there run in the US.

What Tomcto has going for him it's his first start at 3YO and he could improve. What he's got going against him is that GR I races in Peru are typically equivalent to NW1 on the NY or S. Cal circuits.

Ian,

An 88 ain't gonna get it done vs, this group I would think.
I'l put you on the payroll and you can start mking figs for
all the tracks I don't do. Deal ? ;)

John

[cj]

Those Beyers, earned as a 2yo going 10f and 12f, would compare very favorably with what the horses he will face have ran lately.

[Premier Turf Club]

That's probably true CJ. I'm pretty comfortable with those projections as he won handily last time. You'd like to think they'll run better than 90 in here, but Tomcito can improve off his last as well.

I guess odds will dictate whether he's an 'include' or not. He's probably a legit 8% chance as a w.a.g.

[Premier Turf Club]

Ian,

An 88 ain't gonna get it done vs, this group I would think.
I'l put you on the payroll and you can start mking figs for
all the tracks I don't do. Deal ? ;)

John

Yeah, soon as I can find time. I will have to post my S.A. pars at some point. I've done this before pretty well. Thorograph's European speed figures use my timeform conversion formula.

[cj]

That's probably true CJ. I'm pretty comfortable with those projections as he won handily last time. You'd like to think they'll run better than 90 in here, but Tomcito can improve off his last as well.

I guess odds will dictate whether he's an 'include' or not. He's probably a legit 8% chance as a w.a.g.

Tough call. Try to imagine what the current field would have run in October of last year going those distances though. Certainly intriguing...

[Ron]

Lasix for the first time on Tomicito, any thoughts on that? That's usually a positive if the odds are right. I wonder what he'll go off at.

[Ron]

Is there a history of how a Peruvian horse does on first start-first time lasix?

[Zaf]

If Tomcito is over 10-1 , will be firing :jump: !

Z

[onefast99]

Lasix for the first time on Tomicito, any thoughts on that? That's usually a positive if the odds are right. I wonder what he'll go off at.
Distance horses need a bit of time to adjust to lasix, I would watch him in this one. Look out for the Gator, interesting horse!

[john del riccio]

WOW :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

Big brown will break the 0-29 mark set on the horses in post 10-12 during the GP meet. This is a very strong horse ggod jockey and trainer combo, thats my pick.

:jump:

[George Sands]

I will have to post my S.A. pars at some point. I've done this before pretty well. Thorograph's European speed figures use my timeform conversion formula.

Pretty well? Actually, you did it astonishingly well. The "Ians," as some of us called those numbers, changed the way we dealt with those horses, and very much for the better. They were quite a development. So can the false modesty in the future. I don't want to have to do this again.