A new way of Handicapping?

[Handy Cap]

OK...I have to share with everyone on good old Pace Advantage what my 12yo daughter said to me the other day..

I was explaining to her the many factors in horse racing, and showing her the message board so she can get other insights as well. After reading a lot of posts on here, and after listening to all of my advice, she asked me a question from left field that I never thought about before, but it sounded so weird at the time.

She said, and I quote "How are you supposed to bet on any race without knowing the most important factor"? I said "well, you judge speed, class, distance, pace, jocks, trainers, yadda..yadda..yadda...." She said "NO..how are you supposed to bet a race without knowing how smart each horse is"..and I just stopped, and stared...and now I'm thinking..

Is there any way that you can judge how smart a horse is from the pp's? I mean, I am sure some horses are smarter then others right? The fastest horses may not win every race but do the smartest?

p.s. I AM SANE!!

[Hosshead]

Handy Cap, The smart horses are the ones that know, that if they run good enough, and behave themselves,- they WON'T be gelded !

[GameTheory]

That's why geldings are so consistent -- they've learned their lesson.

[Whitehos]

CLASS may reflect intellect?????

[Larry Hamilton]

How fast could Einstein run the 220?

[formula_2002]

The horses that run a "smart 1:08.5" for a 6 furlong sprint are very smart indeed, especially if she(he) wins.
or
Smart horses have good memories and will repeat. And we all hope they have memories of winning.

Joe M

[anotherdave]

Don't discount what your kids say. A year or so ago I was playing cards with my 8 year old daughter. Best out of 5 games. I was up 2 games to 0 and told her she was in trouble. She looked back at me and said she was going to win because "she had more time". It seemed very philosophical to me. Especially when she ended up beating me 3 games to 2.

So every time I am on a losing streak, I don't get too excited. I just think of the words of that wise old sage......another loss, no big deal - I've got more time.

AD

[hurrikane]

I don't think the horse has a friggin clue. they dont' know when they have won...why they ran or why they are getting all that damn good feed after the derby. They just like to run.

[so.cal.fan]

Some of the really good horses are quite smart from what I have heard.......however there is a downside.
Other smart horses............figure out how to not hurt themselves in races............and don't run as fast.........:(
HC:
Don't discourage your daughter......take her to the races if possible, let her look at the horses in the paddock. She may have a knack for it.;)

[JimG]

Don't underestimate the intellect of a horse. I was watching a race about 10 days ago, either Delta or Sam Houston, I believe and a horse reared and threw his rider when being loaded into the gate. The horse got loose on the track and ran for about 3 minutes then made a turn into the barn area and ran into his own barn and his stall (according to the announcer).

I thought that was pretty smart:D


Jim

[hurrikane]

would'nt it be nice if all of them would tell us when they don't want to race.

[Amazin]

It's a no brainer that horses posses intelligence as all animals do. Trainers,jocks and owners have repeatedly praised their horses for their "maturity" after a winning race.Movies and books have talked about the relationship between man and horse.As far as using it in handicapping,there are two things that come to mind that I do.I feel horses are sensitive to their jocks and handler's.Why is it that if you look in the PP's they'll be one jock that excells with the horse.The movie Phar Lap accentuated this point.The other factor is trainer handling.I know some trainers and/or owners treat their horses like a business commodity and others with more sensitivity.Horses,like people respond to this.This is my theory as to why some bombs are produced after a claim and why some horses go sour after a claim.I also think some vets are more sensitive.So I don't think it's smartness as much as feeling comfortable with your connections as far as horses go. Some owners send their horses to the slaughterhouse when they'rei thru with them and others care for them and send them to a farm.If you were a horse,who would you want to work for?

[so.cal.fan]

Hurrikane writes:
"would'nt it be nice if all of them would tell us when they don't want to race".


If you stand in the paddock everyday and watch horses.....many times they do tell you, via their body language.
You can save thousands of dollars over the years if you stay off of horses that are uncomfortable and do not want to run.
I saw a filly in the saddling stalls at Santa Anita the other day, who was very uncomfortable and it was very obvious.
Bear in mind it is the "breeding" season right now.
She was very cantankerous, pinning her ears, kicking back at horses walking by her, and then when they saddled her, she actually stomped her feet!
I watched her race, and she broke well enough.......but when the jock asked her to run........she pinned her ears and refused to extend herself. I watched her after she pulled up and she was not sore.......she just didn't want to run that day.
One day next summer, she'll pop up at a big price and everyone will wonder why????? Happens more often than you think.
Is she smart? Perhaps.

[Lefty]

There are horses who are "racewise" that is, they've figured out oif they just run around the track with the others they're still gonna get fed and taken care of after the race. These are the smart ones.

[Tom]

Originally posted by Lefty
There are horses who are "racewise" that is, they've figured out oif they just run around the track with the others they're still gonna get fed and taken care of after the race. These are the smart ones.


Not smart...Liberal! <G>

[LOU M.]

What, the horse reads the form and knows what the trainer does with his stock after he's finnished with them?:D

[Handy Cap]

I really appreciate the comments on this thread....

How smart is a horse during a race tho...for example...Does a horse know that getting to the rail is good most of the time? Does a horse situate itself in the pack where it likes to run?

My grandfather always told me that if a horse can't get himself into his normal winning position...i.e. early speed close to the top, stalker up fairly close, then thats a sure sign the horse is sore or off form...

Back to the intelligence of the horse...does a horse even know whats happening before a race? Does the horse even know he is going to be involved in a race?

GREAT..JUST ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER

btw, I am with Larry Hamilton....How fast did Einstein run a 220?

[LOU M.]

Sorry about the spelling of finish in the above post. My vocabulary teacher was named Inga Svenson.

[Derek2U]

anyone know why a horse looks to the side --- actually moves
its head to the right or left --- when set down to the drive.

[LOU M.]

Actually it's the jockey pulling on the reins to get the horse to change leads.

[Amazin]

LOu

You didn't get my drift.Obviously horses don't read the form or know if they're going to the slaughterhouse.But it's a scientific fact that animals are more aware and sensitive to their environment than people.Examples like,dogs can hear sounds we can't .Bloodhounds have unbelievable sense of smell.Some animals react bizzarly knowing an earthquake is coming.And on and on.Point is animals are also good at picking up on personalities too.That's why they may run for a particular jock.They like him.Now if an owner is the type that is only interested in the horse for insurance money,he's going to have a sense of that about him.Or he may be downright mean and open about it.A horse will pick up on that.Even plants react to sunlight and talking to(no I don't talk to them).You underestimate a horse's awareness which is different than his smarts.Which isn't even related in alot of cases to physical ability.It's simple. Treat a horse good,he'll run for you.Abuse him and reap what you sow.

[LOU M.]

:D :D :D I was just joshing with you.:D :D :D But I do agree that the horse does react to his surroundings and the way he is treated.

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by LOU M.
Actually it's the jockey pulling on the reins to get the horse to change leads.

That's one thing that happens, but I suspicion Derek is talking about something else that I've seen happen after the horse has already straightened up for the drive down the lane. Is it that the horse cannot get a good view of the area directly in front without turning its head?

[PurplePower]

Originally posted by ranchwest
That's one thing that happens, but I suspicion Derek is talking about something else that I've seen happen after the horse has already straightened up for the drive down the lane. Is it that the horse cannot get a good view of the area directly in front without turning its head? Good observation "Ranch". Horses eyes are on the side of their heads, not the front as ours. They have a horizontal iris, not a round pupil like we do or a vertical slit like their feline predators. As a result, horses have a blind triangular area about three feet in front of their nose. With each eye they see a panoramic view (from about 11:30 to 6:30 with left eye and 12:30 to 4:30 with right eye). They also do not have the same nerve connecting left and right side of brain that we do, so they do not automatically know the same thing with right eye they may have learned with left. As a result of the panoramic vision, some horses may turn their head slightly because they are more comfortable with what they see that way because it puts the "panaoma" in their proper "perspective".
Key is to watch the headon replay and watch the "track" of the horses legs. If legs are "tracking" true (front and rear on each side traveling in same plane) then horse is probably turning head for vision. If horse's head is turned to left and rear legs are traveling to right of plane of front legs, horse may be indicating a soreness somewhere (or may be remembering an old soreness and protecting himself form reinjury).
So Cal Fan is right. Those runners are "talking" to us from time they walk up until time they walk into gate.

[JustRalph]

Good one Tom!

I saw an interview with Baffert after the Pacific Classic and he said War Emblem was too smart? He followed up with, he has learned that if he runs the first half and just lays down the 2nd half he still receives pretty much the same treatment. he doesn't care about the photo in the winners circle. :cool:

[dav4463]

There was a horse at Delta a while back that was pretty smart. He knew when he won that he got to get his picture taken. One time when he won a race, but got disqualified, the handlers could not get the horse to leave. They finally had to take his picture like he had won and then the horse left without a problem. Also, people say horses don't know when they win. How do you explain Cigar refusing his peppermint treat after his win streak was broken?

[kenwoodall]

Smart hprses do not win races, smart jockeys do. Horses who run even and consistent win races.
The worls'd smartest race horse is the losingest, Zippy Chippy. The gelding's owner is the trainer's young daughter and he runs his own speed. only wins match races!! On the web.

[andicap]

My favorite expression is when a trainer or owner puts a tired horse in a race and says "The horse deserves a chance to win this race." Like the horse cares or not!

[GR1@HTR]

I used to think those horses didn't know jack squat...Got a dog to better learn animal behavor so I could improve my handicapping...

IMHO, you got to treat em like kids...If you yell and scream at a kid/young athlete you won't get too much out of it...Was it Covey who said you have to find an equal balance between fear and praise to generate an optimal performance? Same w/ handing animals...


Kinda off the topic slightly:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/2003-02-10-westminster-day-one_x.htm

[oldstuff]

I had the 2nd favorite in a stake race at Arlington in the 60's, having won something like 3 or 4 in a row. Tom Rolfe shipped in for the race and was naturally made the favorite.
While saddling, Tom Rolfe was saddled first and paraded past our stall. The horse (Tom Rolfe who was small in stature) stopped, turned to my horse and stared him down briefly, made some head gestures and stared again. My horse pinned his ears and backed up and I could tell he was intimidated.
We had the lead into the stretch and Tom Rolfe drew alongside.
We finished last.

Now that was one smart horse!

[Figman]

Who says horses aren't smart. When a sample for drug testing is to be collected after a race, the horse is led to the "spit box." There the person charged with collecting the sample has a cup on the end of a stick. The collection person then whistles. Does the horse spit? No, it pees in the cup. Now that is a smart horse!