Horizontal Pool Analysis....

[Hajck Hillstrom]

We all handicap using methods that fit our eye. Whatever the methodology, we attempt to ferret out the gems that the public overlooks, then we invest using the pools we find most profitable. We keep records and analyze our data in an attempt to stay ahead of the curve.

Sometimes we find info that is shocking.

I have always been primarily a horizontal pool player. I bet vertically, but about 70% of my wagering dollar is spent in the Pik3, Pik4, & Pik6 pools. My best ROI has always come from these pools, usually the result of some returns that allow me to withstand agonizing losing streaks.

While mired in my customary winter slump, I decided to analyze my records, and what I found surprised me.... on two seperate levels.

My analysis of winter racing is flawed. I attempt to handicap Turfway but usually end up scratching my head until it bleeds. The inner track at AQU is somewhat more predictable, but I fail to cash for size. I have been a big contributor to the winners at Santa Anita, through a myriad of losses akin to getting knocked out by a one-outer on the river.

What is going very well is the analyzation of the Horizontal Pools, and my question for the astute handicappers on this board is this:

Does anyone here analyze the DD, Pik3, & Pik4 pools?

Seriously, my ROI by dutching contenders that have already been bet with the 2 or 3 prior winners is amazing. If I didn't look at a past performance line this winter, and merely followed the (smart) money, betting two strong value plays to WIN when the opportunity presents itself, I would have had one of my BEST winters ever, instead of one of the WORST.

So again I ask, does anyone here effectively analyze the Horizontal Pools in their methodology?

I love the handicapping process, but I do believe the primary objective is to maximize our profit. I continue to incorporate both methods now as it has always been effective in the Spring, but am curious if other handicappers radically change their handicapping style with the seasons, and does anyone primarily follow the money?

[andicap]

Doug,
Do you mean look for horses being bet in the Pik 3/pik 4 pools (as judged by the "Will Pays" ) but not in the win pools?
An example being a horse who is the 2nd favorite in the pik-3 Will Pay but 4th favorite in the Win pool?
Is that right?

interesting ---

[ryesteve]

Are we talking about a variation of the Chinese Double??

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Ryesteve: I'm not familiar with the Chinese Double, but most approaches are variations on a theme.

Andy: Exactly. What I do is take the Will-pays and divide them by each horses morning line. It provides a very strong contender analysis, and an accurate oddsline. You would be surprised how often horses that go off in the 5-1 to 10-1 range are actually bet to half those odds when bet with two or three of the prior winners.

Back in 1984, I met an elderly gentleman in the upper-grandstand at Hollywood Park. Our meeting was brief, but very impactful to a neophyte horseplayer in search of his path. He said he made two bets a day, the second race and the nightcap; the second leg of the Daily Doubles.

This was before the Pik3 wager was even in existance, but he said that the DD pool analysis was the strongest play method of analysis in the game, because he was following the "smart money," horses bet with horses that had already won.

Over the years, I applied the analysis to the Pik3 & Pik4 pools, and with some fine tuning and patience, discovered some useful tendencies and some amazing true overlays.

My analysis came to light one day at Santa Anita when a guy in the box next to ours showed us his live $250 Pik3 ticket. What amazed me about the ticket was that it was live to one horse, and the ticket had structure of 1x1x1. The will-pay to the live horse was over $300, as I remember the ticket's payoff about 25k. (The Pik3 was a Triple back then and was a $3 wager) He then pulled out the biggest bankroll I had ever seen, and enlightened us how he would then bet the other 6 horses in the field, assuring a minimum profit of 7k in the sequence.

As the horse on his Pik3 ticket romped home, I was amazed that his odds had actually drifted up from his 5-1 ML and paid about $15 to Win. I asked the guy if he was sorry he hedged, and I remember him saying "I'm not greedy, and a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush."

I've seen some crazy things happen out of those pools, and will never forget the day that a Rodney Rash (may he rest in peace) horse was 20-1 on the ML, and was bet to second favoritism in a Pik3 pool, producing a number you don't often see. The horse won for fun and paid around $47 to win. His backers had made their money in another pool. You don't see this type very often, but they do pop up every now and then.

What you can make money on often is finding about 3 or 4 primary contenders, and then betting to WIN the 2 that are going off at the highest odds. Pretty mind numbing stuff, but profitable.

[ryesteve]

Ryesteve: I'm not familiar with the Chinese Double,

Andy: Exactly. What I do is take the Will-pays and divide them by each horses morning line.
Apparently you are familiar with the Chinese Double... you just didn't know you were :)

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Apparently you are familiar with the Chinese Double... you just didn't know you were :)Interesting name. Any idea how how it was tagged? I've found the DD the weakest of the pools to analyze, but the Pik3 and Pik4 are pretty solid, and very effective in concert.

I developed a database that I input the will-pays, ML, and pool totals that further analyzes the open horizontals.

Anyone lay claim to the Swedish Triple yet? :D

[BombsAway Bob]

Interesting name. Any idea how how it was tagged? I've found the DD the weakest of the pools to analyze, but the Pik3 and Pik4 are pretty solid, and very effective in concert.

I developed a database that I input the will-pays, ML, and pool totals that further analyzes the open horizontals.

Anyone lay claim to the Swedish Triple yet? :D
I've had fun & made a few $$ watching the Pick-3 will-pays @ Sam Houston this winter. Micheal Chamberlain(sp) is the Track Announcer/Oddsmaker, & let me tell you...He's A HELL of an ANNOUNCER! :lol: But Seriously, some horses at ML odds of 12/1 to EVEN 20/1 have popped up as the second or third lowest "will-pay" in the Pick-3 pools. While they usually get plenty of support in the win pool as well, they often provide surprisingly nice value in Exactas, & in starting New Pick-3 tickets.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

They often provide surprisingly nice value in Exactas, & in starting New Pick-3 tickets. Tremendous analysis in finding viable contenders to play forward that I may have dismissed off form. I'm working on a stronger transfer from my spreadsheet to a database, and when I do, I'll send you a copy. Again, it always comes down to how you manage your money, but there is validity to the adage, "Just follow the money." And in this case, just follow the money that has been invested on Winners.

[ryesteve]

Here's one from today at Turfway that is really hard to fathom: the R7/R8 DD hooked up a $6.40 horse and a $19.20 horse... and what did it pay??

$25.80 :eek:

[facorsig]

Here's one from today at Turfway that is really hard to fathom: the R7/R8 DD hooked up a $6.40 horse and a $19.20 horse... and what did it pay??

$25.80 :eek:

I have a couple of PA posts from about two years ago where I cite the opposite result. One race was at TuP with two @ 3-1 and the other was from CT with one @ 3-1 and another @ ~5-1 where I took down the entire pool (~$600 in each case). At smaller tracks, there is a lot of variation in payouts against what you "should" get. Overall, I think the DD is a very good wager.

Fred