OVERLAYS

[Doug]

Any comments on the idea that there may be more overlays at some minor tracks, or vice versa.

Seems like at the minor tracks when a favorites are bet it tends to basically push up the odds on some of the logical contenders.

?????????? Any comments?

Doug

[Zaf]

Depends on the track. At Pen there are so many favorites that win. AT MNR anything goes, long shot city.

ZAFONIC

[BillW]

Doug,

Have you tried looking at the average win payout from track to track? The higher the number the more confused the crowd and the more betting opportunities.

Bill

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by BillW
Doug,

Have you tried looking at the average win payout from track to track? The higher the number the more confused the crowd and the more betting opportunities.




You might also adjust for field size (although a high price is a high price) and compare to tracks of similar purse structure to truly see who is "most confused". Then the question is -- can you do any better?

[Zaf]

I believe its MNR which has the highest average win payout. Does anyone have a list of the top 5 ?

ZAFONIC

[BillW]

The Handicappers Edge on the Bris site has this data in its "At A Glance" section. That would at least cover the tracks that are running now.

[Mr. Blonde]

From Bris, although it's unclear if this is last week's or the meet's stats.....

All odds are "xxxx" to 1

Aqueduct - 5.27
Fair Grounds - 5.27
Golden Gate Fields - 5.54
Gulfstream Park - 6.42
Laurel - 4.96
Mountaineer - 6.95
Oaklawn Park - 5.39
Philadelphia Park - 5.57
Sam Houston - 5.55
Santa Anita - 5.14
Tampa Bay Downs - 6.02
Turf Paradise - 4.84
Turfway Park - 7.13

Looks like Turfway is the home of the longshots .........

[hurrikane]

this is a handy chart to help find the longshots.

[Larry Hamilton]

You're not finished Mr Blonde. Now, can you answer the question, "Is my $7 calculation at TP significantly different from what is expected?" This is actually necessary to pass the so-what test.

Of course, there is another issue. Let's say that 7$ is significant, how do you use it? Do you bet on all horses that are plus or minus something to $7?

[GR1@HTR]

Tracks w/ the largest fields produce the most longshots and vice versa.

[hurrikane]

this will help you to understand the post above

http://www.homebased2.com/km/longshotchart.htm