PDA

View Full Version : Which Tracks Are Your Best?


Teach
03-23-2008, 10:30 AM
"Darn it, Walt, I missed that six-footer." "Yeh, I know," I said, "You lipped the cup." "Let's move on to the next hole," my buddy and teaching colleague, Bill, suggested. I then said, "Wait a minute; no one's behind us. Why don't you try that putt, again. Maybe you can see where you misread it." "Naw," Bill said, "Let's just move on...maybe I can get that stroke back on the 6th."


That conversation that took place several years ago has everything to do with the game of golf, but nothing to do with handicapping harness races. But whoa! Wait a minute. Just maybe there is a connection. Now, I'm not necessarily suggesting you go back over every race you lost to see why your horse didn't win; yet, that idea does have merit.

Fellow forum members, what I'm talking about here is seeing how you do at different tracks.

Let's back up. Years ago, when I was a young man, I would frequent tracks here in MA. There was the harness track, Foxboro Raceway; the thoroughbred and occasional harness track, Suffolk Downs; and the thoroughbred/harness track just over the border in southern NH called Rockingham.

Frankly, as I look back, I never kept records at any of the tracks as to how I did. It just didn't seem necessary, nor something I even thought about. However, in recent months, I've started my own web site: www.harnessmaven.com (http://www.harnessmaven.com). During the course of the past few months I've kept archives of the various tracks I've handicapped, e.g., Freehold, The Meadowlands, Yonkers, Monticello, etc. I've found that, in general, I've done better on the 1/2 mile ovals than I have on the "big mile" at "The Big M."

Before I go one, I will say that the differences in my handicapping skills at the
1/2 milers are not that much better than at The Meadowlands. Going back to January of this year, I'm 32%, 33%, and 31% at Freehold, Monticello, and Yonkers, respectively; while at the Meadowlands I'm 29%, overall.

What does this say to me? Well, at first blush, it says that I do better at handicapping winners on 1/2mile tracks than the one-mile ovals. At least that's the premise the data seems to support. Yet, of what good is this information?

In my opinion, it says that if I were betting on the harness races for my own account, I would do better to wager on the 1/2 mile tracks than the larger ovals. At this point, I might mention as an aside that "I cut my teeth" on Foxboro Raceway's half-mile track nearly 50 years ago. In fact, years later, when Foxboro went to a 5/8ths configuration, I found it an adjustment; my handicapping skills slipped.

Oh, I might also mention that The Meadowlands may be tougher for other reasons than its configuration. For one, the drivers are among the best in North America; that makes it harder. There are very few "easy" races. Finally, although the outside posts are usually a disadvantage at mile tracks; I believe they are less so than at 1/2 mile ones.

As usual, I've been too long-winded. But the point I'm trying to make is: In this day and age of simulcasting and a choice of a variety of tracks to wager on --- you might ask yourself: At which ones do I do my best handicapping?

Oh, by the way, my buddy Bill -- he did take me up on my suggestion to go back over his missing putts (playing considerations permitting). In any event, I recall him telling me that's he knocked a couple strokes off his handicap. Just maybe, you can add a couple dollars to your wallet.

trying2win
03-23-2008, 05:48 PM
But the point I'm trying to make is: In this day and age of simulcasting and a choice of a variety of tracks to wager on --- you might ask yourself: At which ones do I do my best handicapping?

I prefer betting at the larger harness ovals myself...i.e. 7/8th of a mile or larger. The Meadowlands is my favorite harness track to wager on.


T2W

badcompany
03-24-2008, 12:34 AM
I like speed favoring 1/2 mile tracks: Harrington, Yonkers (before they lengthened the stretch) Batavia, Saratoga Harness, and Ocean Downs.

My favorite month to bet is August because those tracks are open, and I can bet them from the Saratoga racino. In fact for the past few years, that's the only month that I've been regularly betting horses, and not surprisingly I've been showing a profit. If I bet all year 'round, I get grinded down.

Ray2000
03-24-2008, 12:34 PM
I believe "Which tracks are your best" also depends on which pool you "splash around in".

I play a lot of tracks in North America and have kept records since 2001.
I only play races with 8, 9, or 10 entries, class > 67,
races where my pick Morning line is at least 5/2, and
my pick1 + pick2 + pick3 Morning line added together is 15 or more.

This listing only shows the 5 best and the 5 worse tracks where I've made at least 500 bets over the last 3 years.
(Numbers are based on 2$ tickets)

Straight Trifecta wagering
Best 5
...........Wagered ..ROI
HP .......$1,346 202.3%
RIDC ....$2,018 171.8%
WDB ....$3,402 161.7%
HAR .....$1,520 137.2%
BMLP ....$2,178 126.7%

Worse 5
MR ......$1,456 -14.9%
PPK .....$2,130 -15.9%
DD ......$3,672 -24.4%
STGA ...$1,604 -27.2%
FHLD ...$2,380 -36.4%



When betting my Pick1 to win
Best 5
..........Wagered ..ROI
NOR .....$1,274 22.4%
CHST ...$1,124 20.5%
WR ......$1,428 12.0%
MEA ....$3,088 6.0%
YR ......$2,114 5.8%

Worse 5
HP ......$1,346 -9.0%
FHLD ...$2,380 -9.3%
CALX ...$1,208 -9.9%
RIDC ...$2,018 -18.1%
M .......$3,706 -19.7%


Rideau-Carleton seems to be great for trifectas but sucks for win betting. (In my system)
About all I can conclude is I should stay away from Freehold.:)

whyhorseofcourse
03-24-2008, 01:44 PM
Nice stats.

I have been doing good lately with spot plays and overlays at Rosecroft.
I do a lot better at the tracks with very little wagering.

Stick
03-24-2008, 02:44 PM
Ray

Have you ever calculated long term cold exactas? Even though cold tri's seem to produce a little better ROI for me cold ex's also get the job done and there aren't the long losing streaks that come with cold tri's.

Ray2000
03-24-2008, 03:50 PM
Stick
Here are my exacta results since 1/1/05 playing the same races as shown before.
I've listed all tracks with at least 500 bets, not just the top and bottom 5.


Exacta 1$ box (2$ bets)

Track .. Wagered .. Returned .. Net ..ROI
WDB... $3,402 ... $4,871 ... $1,469 ...43.2%
MOH... $1,724 ... $2,299 ... $575 ...33.4%
PPK... $2,130 ... $2,696 ... $566 ...26.6%
MR.... $1,456 ... $1,748 ... $292 ...20.0%
FLMD... $3,404 ... $4,030 ... $626 ...18.4%
MEA... $3,088 ... $3,615 ... $527 ...17.1%
RIDC... $2,018 ... $2,300 ... $282 ...14.0%
NFLD... $2,992 ... $3,390 ... $398 ...13.3%
HAR... $1,520 ... $1,670 ... $150 ...9.9%
FHLD... $2,380 ... $2,565 ... $185 ...7.8%
BMLP... $2,178 ... $2,295 ... $117 ...5.4%
MAY... $1,328 ... $1,357 ... $29 ....2.2%
HP.... $1,346 ... $1,342 ... $(4)....-0.3%
CHST... $1,124 ... $1,116 ... $(8)...-0.7%
CALX... $1,208 ... $1,181 ... $(27)...-2.3%
LON... $1,972 ... $1,839 ... $(133)...-6.8%
YR.... $2,114 ... $1,951 ... $(163)...-7.7%
WR.... $1,428 ... $1,300 ... $(129)...-9.0%
NOR... $1,274 ... $1,129 ... $(145)...-11.4%
M..... $3,706 ... $3,252 ... $(454)...-12.3%
STGA... $1,604 ... $1,401 ... $(203)...-12.7%
DD.... $3,672 ... $3,105 ... $(567)...-15.4%

Totals $47,068 ... $50,451 ... $3,383 ...7.2%



Exactas 2$ Straight

Track ... Wagered .. Returned .. Net ..ROI
WDB... $3,402 ... $4,885 ... $1,483 ...43.6%
HAR... $1,520 ... $2,061 ... $541 .....35.6%
MEA... $3,088 ... $4,175 ... $1,087 ...35.2%
FLMD... $3,404 ... $4,508 ... $1,104 ...32.4%
NFLD... $2,992 ... $3,758 ... $766 ...25.6%
MOH... $1,724 ... $1,977 ... $253 ...14.7%
HP.... $1,346 ... $1,483 ... $137 ...10.2%
YR.... $2,114 ... $2,322 ... $208 ...9.8%
PPK... $2,130 ... $2,339 ... $209 ...9.8%
STGA... $1,604 ... $1,682 ... $78 ...4.9%
RIDC... $2,018 ... $2,101 ... $83 ...4.1%
LON... $1,972 ... $2,037 ... $65 ...3.3%
M..... $3,706 ... $3,808 ... $102 ...2.7%
NOR... $1,274 ... $1,255 ... $(19)...-1.5%
CALX... $1,208 ... $1,183 ... $(25)...-2.0%
WR.... $1,428 ... $1,392 ... $(36)...-2.5%
FHLD... $2,380 ... $2,314 ... $(66)...-2.8%
DD.... $3,672 ... $3,531 ... $(141)...-3.8%
BMLP... $2,178 ... $2,091 ... $(87)...-4.0%
CHST... $1,124 ... $1,069 ... $(55)...-4.9%
MR.... $1,456 ... $1,369 ... $(87)...-6.0%
MAY.... $1,328 ... $1,231 ... $(97)...-7.3%

Totals $47,068 ... $52,573 ... $5,505 ...11.7%


Playing "Cold" over the long run seems better. (11.7% vs 7.2% ROI)

Sorry for the dots "..." I'm having trouble pasting a table

Ray

cj
03-24-2008, 05:52 PM
My top 5 would be FreeState, Brandywine, Liberty Bell, Garden State, and Los Alamitos.

Stick
03-24-2008, 05:52 PM
You mentioned 8-10 entries and morning line odds adding up to at least 15 for tri's. What were the requirements for ex's?

Ray2000
03-24-2008, 07:00 PM
The exacta results are for the same races which were tagged "playable" by the morning line criteria for trifectas but using only my first and second pick. I've found it's best to have a morning line sum on my top 2 picks of at least 12/1 for exactas.

The win results were also on the same races, (my pick1 is always > 2/1 Morning Line)

A note on the trifecta results..
Playing a 1$ part wheel, pick1 on top of pick2 and pick3 vs a straight 2$ ticket produces almost identical results on total return, all tracks. The hit frequency is twice as large (1 in 33 vs 1 in 66) but it collects only the 1 $ payoff.