formula's sun picks 02/09

[formula_2002]

GLOBAL WINNING PICKS 02/09/2003
MIN G
TRACK--DATE--RACE # HORSE WNET PNET SNET W E ODDS ODDS ESP
AQU20030209 1 CHEROKEE 3 E
GPX20030209 6 ONCE RICH 2.75
TAM20030209 7 POCKETS 1.14
CTX20030209 10 SILENT CL 2.5
TAM20030209 12 SEAKEEN 4
FGX20030209 14 ICE QUEEN 2.75
PHA20030209 15 BRAZILIAN 2.75
CTX20030209 16 RISKY BID 1.67
GPX20030209 17 FABULOUS 2.6
TAM20030209 21 OUT OF PR 2.5
FGX20030209 22 FORTY TWO 2.8
OPX20030209 24 STEAMING 1.43
PHA20030209 25 JOHN'S CA 2.75
GPX20030209 27 SOURCE 2.14 E
FGX20030209 29 JACKIE'S 1.67
OPX20030209 31 ROSES ROS 5
CTX20030209 33 POCKET FU 2.8
BEU20030209 35 FEATURED 3
OPX20030209 37 LADY BELL 1.5
LRL20030209 38 RIDAN'S M 4.33
SAX20030209 39 MY FRIEND 1.5
PHA20030209 40 BRITE MAN 1
TPX20030209 42 OVERLY 3.5
SAX20030209 43 FAIL ME N 4
FGX20030209 45 BLUES IN 1.8 E
AQU20030209 46 SOCIANO 2.2
OPX20030209 47 WILD TOGA 1.5
LRL20030209 49 THISLILGI 2.75
SAX20030209 50 DECISION 1.6
TAM20030209 51 MISS SUWA 2.17
CTX20030209 52 VALENTINE 3.4
SUN20030209 54 BOBBY TOL 2.5 E
TPX20030209 55 EASTERN T 2
OPX20030209 56 PRIVATE P 2.6
PMX20030209 57 ASHLEYS A 2
HOU20030209 60 EINAR 2.17
SUN20030209 61 STORMIN B 2.8 E
SUN20030209 68 CALMA PRA 2.33
OPX20030209 69 STATE OF 1.5
PMX20030209 71 STATELY J 2.33
SAX20030209 72 THAT'S NA 3.4
TUP20030209 74 GALLOPING 2
PMX20030209 75 SUPER WRI 3.4
HOU20030209 76 ENDOFTHES 3 E
SAX20030209 77 WEST COAS 1.43 E
DED20030209 78 GOLDEN GE 2.75
DED20030209 82 SMASHING 1.33

[formula_2002]

VOLATILITY IS THY NAME....

4 WINS IN 36 PICKS FOR A FLAT BET LOSS OF -58% AND A DUTCH LOSS OF -53%.


If regression to the mean, "means anything", next week end may be a banner weekend.

I just hope the banner doesnt snap me in the butt!!

Joe M

[Amazin]

What was the basis for the selections that did so poorly.From losing,comes winning,but first you must know what you did wrong.

[formula_2002]

Amazin

The stats for the pick selections and various reports on all previous picks are posted on my web page. The info can be accessed by all.

Take a look

Joe M

[formula_2002]

I wanted to know the probability of losing 53% of my wagered dollars in 36 plays at a 7% edge and win odds of 3.86-1 .

I went to my interactive table and keyed in 100 re- iterations and found that I could lose anywhere form 35% to 103% in this particular test ,100 sets of 36 plays, 13% of the time....

This of couse is base on "averages" only.
More meaningful results are obtained on odds range to edge calculations...But It gives me some point of reference, for the least effort....

Joe M

[JustMissed]

Originally posted by formula_2002
VOLATILITY IS THY NAME....

4 WINS IN 36 PICKS FOR A FLAT BET LOSS OF -58% AND A DUTCH LOSS OF -53%.


If regression to the mean, "means anything", next week end may be a banner weekend.

I just hope the banner doesnt snap me in the butt!!

Joe M

Joe, Have you ever tried BRIS Prime Power ratings or any other such power rating? Just a suggestion, I think you could get better than 4 out of 36 hit rate.

JustMissed
:)

[formula_2002]

JM, thanks for the thoughts.

I use the Brispower ratings and over 80 of their other ratings, on speed, pace, form, class, back class, jockey, trainer, etc...

I can only hope it turns around this weekend (fri, sat and sunday) and gets back to the profit column.



Joe M

[JustMissed]

Originally posted by formula_2002
JM, thanks for the thoughts.

I use the Brispower ratings and over 80 of their other ratings, on speed, pace, form, class, back class, jockey, trainer, etc...

I can only hope it turns around this weekend (fri, sat and sunday) and gets back to the profit column.



Joe M

Good luck. I do remember now that you use the All-Ways files. I have never used their program but have read most of their newsletters and it looks like top-notched software.

JM

[formula_2002]

JM, I do use the all-ways software, but I write my own programs.

One of the special features of the professional edition allows you to export data to a comma delimited file.

All-ways is an excellet software product, and the people at Frandsen are very responsive to their users.

Issue 10 is coming out in the next few weeks. It will allow for program numbers and morning lines to be exported, plus a whole bunch of otherstuff that sound interesting..

The only draw back is the cost of the data...$7.00 a race card..

Joe M

[BillW]

Originally posted by formula_2002
JM, I do use the all-ways software, but I write my own programs.

One of the special features of the professional edition allows you to export data to a comma delimited file.

All-ways is an excellet software product, and the people at Frandsen are very responsive to their users.

Issue 10 is coming out in the next few weeks. It will allow for program numbers and morning lines to be exported, plus a whole bunch of otherstuff that sound interesting..

The only draw back is the cost of the data...$7.00 a race card..

Joe M

Joe,

The all-ways files I am familiar with that are sold by Bris come in a comma delimited format and don't need any processing by Fransden software. The Bris allways files have had the post-position and morning line data for a few months now according to their documentation. (It showed up the first of last Oct. in the files I buy ... I assume they upgraded all files at the same time)

Where are you getting your data?

Bill

[formula_2002]

Bill W,,, I use all-ways file extension .alw and update with the exotics results file extension .xrd..

Many ( many) years ago I used the DRF data file which I would down load from Bris. I think they had the file extension .da1 and .da2

I checked the bris library recently and did not find all the "valued added factors" that all-ways uses in the DRF data files.
Am I wrong about that ?
I'lll call l bris in the am.

Thanks

Joe M.

[BillW]

Joe,

The .ALW files from Bris are comma-delimited files as delivered by Bris. When you said you were exporting comma-delimited files, I thought you had found a different data source that supplied a file of a different format that needed to be exported by a program in order to convert to a CSV format.

I am assuming that the upgrade to the Allways files happened about last Oct. as they usually make the changes across the board about the same time (The files I use were upgraded to contain that data as of the 1st of Oct.).

I realize the .ALW files contain extra data ... I was simply addressing (speculating about) the program number/ML items.

Bill

[formula_2002]

Bill, apparently many of us wanted frandsen to allow exporting of the ML. They are able to do so in rev 10.

In a call to them last week, and asked if they could also export the saddle cloth numbers..They were able to do that also.

Joe M