NEW Beyer Trip Handicapping Video thread.

[njcurveball]

We were getting some good stuff in the other thread, so perhaps one more try here? I found this post very helpful.

It has been a good deal of time since I last viewed the Mellos and Beyer trip tapes. Both covered the major trouble type of trip well. Beyer I felt showed the effect of bias better. Mellos tape did a great job in pointing out what the rider was doing with the horse. Mellos pointed out how a jock was sitting on a troubled horse coming out of the gate was a way to tell if there was self inflicted trouble or not. Mellos also had some ideas about catching horses in the back of the pack that were no go types getting a work within a race.

My bottom line... I was working on a trip note service with Ron Cox at the time I viewed these tapes, and frankly thought I was a damn good trip handicapper. Trips are to this day my best handicapping tool. Personally I learned nothing new from the Beyer tape. The Mellos tape taught my some new trip tools. In regards to Beyer, despite what I said about not learning anything new please don't consider that a negative. I have suggested to others that both of them in tandem are a fantastic learning tool.

And one side note. Mellos is not exactly Mr. Excitement. His narration style and voice pattern could be used as a sleeping aid.

[jasperson]

Do you think keeping trip notes on 1 turn race is worth while? For the most part I think it is hard to get into much trouble in a 6f sprint. When I do see it I have been putting him in my stable alert watch list. The problem I have with that is a lot of times he doesn't come up or comes up at a different track. Trip notes on 2 turn races and all turf races are extremely valuable. Speed is not so important in turf races because most times a lot horses finish together, it the trip that is important. But here again just because he had a bad trip it isn't a forgone conclusion that he is going to get a good one today.

[boomman]

Do you think keeping trip notes on 1 turn race is worth while? For the most part I think it is hard to get into much trouble in a 6f sprint. When I do see it I have been putting him in my stable alert watch list. The problem I have with that is a lot of times he doesn't come up or comes up at a different track. Trip notes on 2 turn races and all turf races are extremely valuable. Speed is not so important in turf races because most times a lot horses finish together, it the trip that is important. But here again just because he had a bad trip it isn't a forgone conclusion that he is going to get a good one today.

jasperson: In the interest of education, (and don't take this as putting you down, simply my perspective on your statements) the answer to your first question about one turn sprints and trip notes is yes. Trust me, horses can "get in trouble" in 2f races much less one turn "sprints", and remember: one turn races can be contested as far as the 1 1/16 one turn race @ Belmont and several tracks run a one turn, one mile race. As far as your stable alerts coming up when the horse is running at another track, that will happen frequently, especially in the Northeastern part of the United States, where the tracks are obviously in close proximity to one another. But just because a horse that you have a troubled trip note on moves to another track doesn't mean he can't be just as juicy a play next out. If he (she) fits handicapping wise (pace and classwise) in the race and you know the horse had an extremely troubled trip and now the connections change the rider as well, they often "mean business". I agree that trip notes can be valuable AS LONG AS THE TRIP NOTES ARE ACCURATE, and I recommend watching a lot of video to make sure they are. And although trips on the turf are of equal importance, to suggest that they "run in packs" like Europe and that early speed isn't important on the turf in North America is just plain wrong and I suggest you watch fractional splits on the turf (especially in California) and re-adjust your thinking on that. Some of my biggest scores in racing have been wire to wire wins on turf, including Michael Baze coaxing along his horse to an uncontested 50 and change half mile on the lead (horse's name escapes me, but it was the 8 horse) to take down the Pick 6 at DelMar in the last race on closing day of last years meet. And finally, your statement of "just because he had a bad trip doesn't mean he's going to get a good one today" is of course, 100% accurate. Some horses (and riders) find ways to get in trouble, and do so often. I'll give you a heads up on one horse who got in a ton of trouble recently: #2 Sterling Misty in the 7th race at Santa Anita on Thursday Mar 20, 2008 may have gotten the worst ride in recent memory when on the dead run (with exhausted front runners collapsing in front of her) jockey David Flores decided to go to the rail and place her behind a wall of about 7 horses after exiting the hill only to run 5th in a race that she was at least 2nd best in.....The horse exerted very little energy, campaigns for a low % trainer, and should be a bet back at similar conditions in next with hopefully a rider change...(Garrett Gomez comes to mind) ;)

Boomer

[Dan Montilion]

Trip handicapping is not just trouble handicapping. That would be a whole other thread.

Indeed in one turn races trip/trouble may be more important the shorter the distance. If a horse has a "trip" early in the race there is less time to recover or overcome the "trip". Many times in routes a horse has an early trip and is able to overcome that trip. Some may suggest this is a good thing that a horse had a trip and still finshed up close or even win. Perhpas it is but there is no wager value here.

[mountainman]

Troubled trips, if mentioned in the charts, are notoriously overbet next out. Unfavorable trips of a less obvious nature engender subsequent value. Give me an animal that was hung wide on a pro rail track, or dueled and folded on the card's fastest fractions, or a closer that was compromised by a lone speed scenario. You can have those that got shut off, left at the post, fouled, pinched back, or even floated wide.

Brad Free once wrote an informative column on the topic of troubled trips. Free deemed notable any mishap that takes a horse out of its usual running style(i.e. bad break for a frontrunner), but attached little significance to bad trips that go with the territory(i.e. closers hung wide). Free further felt that any trouble a horse overcomes to win was probably insignificant, and that self-inflicted trouble should generally be ignored. Fundamental stuff, but worthy of review. In fact, I think I'll reread that article.

[Jeff P]

Trips...

One "trip" that I like to pay attention to is watching horses gallup out after just having run a race. Quite often horses (this includes race winners too) pull up on their own just past the wire and become one of the first horses back to the unsaddling area. IMHO such horses are very often terrible bets next time out - especially when the running line in the past performance shows a 1st 2nd or 3rd place finish.

-jp

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[njcurveball]

Looks like this is a pretty good deal then.


http://cgi.ebay.com/Handicapping-Andy-Beyer-Trip-Handicapping-VIDEO_W0QQitemZ250227471848QQihZ015QQcategoryZ378Q QssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem