What is THE PUBLIC betting on? Beyers? Running Lines? Sheets? Names? Jockey? ....

[Robert Fischer]

THE PUBLIC = all of the money in the pools other than your money.

what factors are the public betting on ?

running lines? speed figures?
jockeys? Trainers? Class? Morning Line?

what the heck are they betting on ?

I think it varies depending on the situation. It is just as important to understand why the Public is wagering their dough, as it is to know why they take the bread from your mouth!

-
I tend to think that in general; Running Lines, Class, and Jockey-Trainer drive a lot of money.

i also look for two specific market types:

FAN FAVORITE - the public is betting "Popular Horse" because he is a racing star. They aren't so critical of his faults , the others in the field, or even his current form.

BULL MARKET - today's maiden claimer features poor racehorses, and the public is going to crush the horse who ran 3rd last time because they simply want some action.

[njcurveball]

Running line does not drive money from the public, it is finish position.

Take a horse who leads till the stretch and quits finishing 20 lengths back. NOT going to be bet by the public.

Finish position drives speeds figures as well.

fan favorite is relevant in about a dozen races a year. Finish position is relevant in the majority.

[Bruddah]

a lot of betting comes from the (pretty pony types). However, they seem to have a better ROI than I do. :D :bang: :D

[Robert Fischer]

Running line does not drive money from the public, it is finish position.

:ThmbUp:
Very true. Maybe I should have separated Finish Position apart from Running Line?
Think the public misses anything in the running lines?

[Jeff P]

It's easy - the public bets recent running lines that are "pretty."

Q. What is "pretty?"

"Pretty" is a strong finish... often a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place finish in one or more recent running lines... often at a higher class than found among the "pretty" running lines of the other horses in the same race. "Pretty" often means higher final time based speed figures than those attached to the running lines of the other horses in the same race. And sometimes "pretty" means low morning line odds when combined with the horse's number listed at the bottom of the track program.

One more... and it's one of my all time favorites... In stakes races "pretty" often means a horse that's getting a lot of attention from the press. Sometimes that attention is a little misguided.

You might say the public has a fascination with "pretty." It's funny. The further you move away from "pretty" the less public money a horse is likely to attract. As you move further and further away from "pretty" win rate begins to tail off. Move far enough away and you'll find that horses with running lines that are really ugly seldom win races.

But when you can find legitimate reasons (hidden positives) to bet horses that are at least somewhat ugly on paper, profitable play actually does become possible.


-jp

.

[oddsmaven]

The odds are driven by numerous factors including some not listed, but the biggest two are:

speed figures
class

Good speed figures will always get attention but good running lines will not be bet if the race was comparitively slow. Yet a slowish effort is often respected if the class of the horse is high. Class generally trumps a lot, including distance. The jockeys, etc. will factor in to the play but to a smaller extent.

[plainolebill]

Speed & Trainer by a wide margin.

[singunner]

If my mother is any indicator, they go exclusively by name.

Some sort of angelic or religious or moon-related imagery will guarantee her two dollars.

[chickenhead]

since late speed is overbet in most all races, I'd say they like to bet on horses that routinely clunk up for a "fast closing" 3rd or 4th.

[jonnielu]

Running line does not drive money from the public, it is finish position.

Take a horse who leads till the stretch and quits finishing 20 lengths back. NOT going to be bet by the public.

Finish position drives speeds figures as well.

fan favorite is relevant in about a dozen races a year. Finish position is relevant in the majority.

This is the core of it, "the public" does encompass a spectrum of knowledge and experience though. You can say that the public in general is hypnotized by what could be called "good form" in general.

"Good form" can be composed of somewhat different main factors at different times, but top three finish position is a strong attraction for the public, and always a part of "good form".

An actual, or even percieved class drop draws the public like flies to manure. If a $50,000 claimer ran last in a $100,000 stake event, the public will go crazy for the class drop, even if todays event is a $100,000 claimer. At times this can even make up for "shaky form".

A good speed figure, along with a 2nd place finish, with "good form" is strong favorite material, regardless of any distance/surface changes.

But the strongest siren song for the public, is "great form", it is irresistable to the public. Show me the horse that is going for the third win in a row that is not the overwhelming lock of the day, pounded into absolute dust by the public. At this point, no other factor is considered as 10,000 people can be heard saying... "Hey Louie.... did you see the form on this mofo?"

Here is where "the public" loses all connection with reality as they scurry to bet with both hands quickly before word of their find gets out. If it is a claimer staying at the same level, that's just better.

"Good form" and its major components, speed figure, finish position, a perception of class, hot jockey, high percentage trainer, makes for a winner almost everytime. Just ask them, they'll tell you, it's in the book. The book that tells you how to tell "good form" from "bad form".

The public loves excuses, but they will have do some work to make up for "bad form".

Form, it enlightens and blinds.

jdl

[Overlay]

Regardless of what factors the public bets, their biggest overall mistake is using those factors solely for the purpose of isolating the most likely winner, without regard to the horse's winning probability in relation to its odds, or to the relative winning chances of the other horses in the field.

[Gibbon]

Where is 'all of the above' button?
Personally, I always bet the gray (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gray_(horse)).





_________________________________
Money, horse racing and women, three things the boys just can't figure out. ~ Will Rogers

[The Bit]

Sharp horses and big speed figures are always overbet.

[oddsmaven]

Speed figures are correctly getting getting selected heavily here but it surprising at this juncture to see jockeys over class 17-10 :eek: ...I suppose if we were asking which factors influence the most bettors, that would be true, but I think we're more interested in which factors take the most money and it would be ludicrous to list jockey over class...now it's true that the best jockeys are generally given the best mounts so they get bet but that big money is on the horse, not the passenger...if a top jock ends up on an outclassed horse, he can go off damn high.

[bobphilo]

Since pace is underbet and visually impressive stretch gains are overbet, the most overbet horses are the plodders that are able to remain vertical and give the optical illusion of a fast finish when they pass the tiring front-runners after a hot early pace that they laid well off that causes the race to collapse. At least on dirt.

Bob

[Overlay]

now it's true that the best jockeys are generally given the best mounts so they get bet but that big money is on the horse, not the passenger...if a top jock ends up on an outclassed horse, he can go off damn high.

You have a point, especially since several leading riders can have mounts in the same race. But I've also seen horses bet down (wherever the money was coming from) to odds levels that made them unplayable, for no discernible reason other than the presence of a hot jockey (which had the net effect of making the other horses in the race more favorable betting propositions).

[kroebuck67]

Something not specifically mentioned in the poll that is a factor for horses getting bet down, IMO -

A good chunk of recreational punters wait until their assessment of the horse in the post parade, then bet on looks alone (whatever it may be they find attractive about a racehorse).

[DeanT]

Interesting thread. I still think the jock is bet hardest by complete newbies. Jeff and others with fancy-dancy databases tell us that in T-breds. In harness I did a small data run on the leading press-getting driver in harness last year. I have not seen a more anemic ROI. He was winning at 30-35% at the small tracks and you were losing your shirt. Betting the fave over that time and you would have been a rich man compared to betting the driver.

As for semi-newbies I think the trainer is overbet. It's hard to find a Pletcher angle worth anything anymore, and for running lines I think a sprinter that closed to come 3rd or 4th, who is now going long is a hammer to most newer people.

[The Bit]

I agree with the late closing sprinter now going a route being overbet by most players. That is something I remember myself using as an angle when I first started playing years ago.

"He should get there now that he is going 1 mile"

[Tee]

I still see players handicapping by time, finish position & beaten lengths.

[Cratos]

You have a point, especially since several leading riders can have mounts in the same race. But I've also seen horses bet down (wherever the money was coming from) to odds levels that made them unplayable, for no discernible reason other than the presence of a hot jockey (which had the net effect of making the other horses in the race more favorable betting propositions).

While I disagree with their choices, it is my opinion that the general public bets speed figures and morning line odds more than any other handicapping assessment as a random indicator of a horse’s ability to win.

[Murph]

a lot of betting comes from the (pretty pony types). However, they seem to have a better ROI than I do. :D :bang: :DYou know the Hat pin gals too. don't you Bruddah? They are "sharp" and handicap with pinpotnt precision. same result - better than me recently

[Murph]

I think it is last race. Many of the pocket guys only see the top line. Good figs on recent form are standard, top last fig not so much as the run line. I drill down into race condition groups and get better answers for the question you ask.

Murph

[classhandicapper]

I think the public primarily bets on some combination of finish relative to class, speed figures, trainer, and consistency. The problem of course is that those factors produce a lot of winners. :rolleyes:

In NY, I think Thorograph and Ragozin figures have a lot of influence. Almost invariably, when I don't understand why a horse is getting bet so heavily based on a variety of things I look at, it has a much better TG and/or RAGs figure than other speed figure sources. Occasionally, figure makers simply disagree. When that happens, I think the bigger bettors that use TG and RAGs have more influence on the board than Beyer and other figure sources .

I actually think a pretty good source of bets (if you are a good enough figure maker to understand the issues), is to focus on the times you think TG and RAGs have a figure wrong.

[Oddzilla]

Speed figures/Beyers, class advantage, last race/finish, Todd Pletcher, Steve Asmussen, Garrett Gomez. We didn't start the fire...

[nobeyerspls]

Speed figures are correctly getting getting selected heavily here but it surprising at this juncture to see jockeys over class 17-10 :eek: ...I suppose if we were asking which factors influence the most bettors, that would be true, but I think we're more interested in which factors take the most money and it would be ludicrous to list jockey over class...now it's true that the best jockeys are generally given the best mounts so they get bet but that big money is on the horse, not the passenger...if a top jock ends up on an outclassed horse, he can go off damn high.

I'm not surprised to see speed figures at the top despite being told on another thread that 80% of handicappers don't see them. Jockey/trainer could be a category listed so maybe voters are choosing both.
In my experience the leading jockey attracts money no matter what his horse looks like on paper. When Bailey was the leading rider at Gulfstream some would try to bet the "horse without the number" if he rode the lead pony.

[cj's dad]

I am amazed at how few people @ the track do not buy the DRF. Majority are buying the multiple track program which I think is virtually useless.

Also, I hear lots of talk regarding jockey/trainer combos also.

[oddsmaven]

...In my experience the leading jockey attracts money no matter what his horse looks like on paper. When Bailey was the leading rider at Gulfstream some would try to bet the "horse without the number" if he rode the lead pony.

I beg to differ with this - as I stated earlier, the jockeys don't deserve to be ranked ahead of class and some other categories...Ramon Dominguez is hands down the most popular jockey riding at Aqueduct now and look what happened on their last card, Saturday...he almost always gets top mounts but he did not get one in the second (OK Roger)...and by the way, he was listed 9:2 in the ML having raced once in Special Weights in the summer vs the highly regarded Maimonides...he was blown away then, sent to the bench & reappeared in maiden CLAIMING...hardly the scenario for dismissal, yet he went off 12:1 in a seven horse field despite picking up Dominguez.

[njcurveball]

I'm not surprised to see speed figures at the top despite being told on another thread that 80% of handicappers don't see them. .

Tunnel vision? Blinkers on perhaps? The 80% figure was attached to BEYER speed figures, believe it or not, there are plenty of other speed figures out there, including the most used ones made by Equibase.

[ranchwest]

When I first start going to the track, I'd win on a race and my girlfriend would ask me what I bet. I'd tell her the jockey. Next race, she'd bet that jockey and I might win on something else. She asked me again and I'd say a different jockey. She'd get mad because that wasn't the jockey I said last time. I'd tell her, yeah, but he won last time, he's not going to win again. She'd be ticked. lol

[cmoore]

The public gets the favorite right about 35% of the time. So for that to happen it's most likely ML odds and speed figures. Jockey,trainer and class are most likely 3rd through 5th in any order.

[Robert Fischer]

wow great participation over 100 votes and looks like near 300 factors voted on

some interesting results so far.


hard to tell the exact accuracy, but the major factors probably DO get much consideration from the public.

Workouts are in "last" with only 6 votes (2%). Wish I lived close enough to the track to do some clocking!

[Semipro]

I think they just look at odds find favorite then follow the sheep herd off the cliff.:eek: Look on their face on the way down.:D

[cmoore]

I thought about the same thing. Works are lowest vote. So master those and you have a big advantage. Coincedently I started reading a book last week called Workouts and Maidens by Vincent M. Reo.

wow great participation over 100 votes and looks like near 300 factors voted on

some interesting results so far.


hard to tell the exact accuracy, but the major factors probably DO get much consideration from the public.

Workouts are in "last" with only 6 votes (2%). Wish I lived close enough to the track to do some clocking!

[njcurveball]

Wish I lived close enough to the track to do some clocking!

Serious question, how would you do this? Lets say there are 50 horses on track and 5 or 6 are breaking off. Unless you know the clocker and the trainer and the people and _____ fill in the many blanks, how would you get the right horses?

Perhaps you could pick out a few visually and ask around about them, but unless you have some kind of program to identify them all AND a very quick finger for your stop watch, you will be overwhelmed very quickly.

Have you been out in the mornings before? Perhaps you are a retired clocker and know all these things?

[Robert Fischer]

Serious question, how would you do this? Lets say there are 50 horses on track and 5 or 6 are breaking off. Unless you know the clocker and the trainer and the people and _____ fill in the many blanks, how would you get the right horses?

Perhaps you could pick out a few visually and ask around about them, but unless you have some kind of program to identify them all AND a very quick finger for your stop watch, you will be overwhelmed very quickly.

Have you been out in the mornings before? Perhaps you are a retired clocker and know all these things?

Sounds like it would take some hard work.

[jonnielu]

wow great participation over 100 votes and looks like near 300 factors voted on

some interesting results so far.


hard to tell the exact accuracy, but the major factors probably DO get much consideration from the public.

Workouts are in "last" with only 6 votes (2%). Wish I lived close enough to the track to do some clocking!

In short, the overwhelming majority is looking at "form", that includes pretty much everything on the list. All of those things compose what is called "form", or are angles of "form". The sum total of public evaluation of "form" is expressed with general accuracy in the ML. The big secret is that the public evaluation of "form", while generally accurate, is as good as it gets.

You may be a little better at it then the public on the whole, but, that is not enough to gain a real advantage on the public on the whole. They've read the same books you have. You will need to gain skill in evaluating all of the factors that the public is not considering at all, or completely missing.

What is the one thing that the public understands least? The correct answer will outline your course of study.

If the public is all over "form", you will need to be all over "not form".

Just some more food for thought.

jdl

[Hank]

Echos of Mark Cramer.:ThmbUp:

[dvlander]

Not one of the choices but I believe much of the public faithfully follows Bris' Prime Power in one form or another. It has proven to be reliable predictor of races but like any prominent public factor, it is greatly overbet.

I have a couple of profitable selection methods of my own that have as a part of the criteria to eliminate the top-ranked Prime Power contender. PP #1 wins 31-32% of dirt races so eliminating it compromises win percentage a bit but makes up for it in average mutuel.

Dale

[098poi]

Excellent topic and goes to the core of how money can be made. I should take more time to identify why a horse has been made the first or second fav and see if the reasons are solid or shallow.

[KMS]

I think a lot of people are using various handicapping programs that all point to the same horse. I see a lot of races where a runner that's a contender but not necessarily the logical favorite, get absolutely hammered, like going from a7-2 ML down to 3-5 at post time. Bettors just plug in their data file and whatever horse it spits out on top, that's their choice, regardless of odds or any other factor.

[ranchwest]

If all of "the public" was like the typical racegoer, there'd be a lot of rich people on this forum. Most of the money comes from a fairly small segment of "the public".

I suspect that most of the people pouring in big bucks have a fairly good idea of what they're doing most of the time. I don't think many of them are pushing money in with both fists based solely on the jockey or some other such simple factor.

[socantra]

THE PUBLIC = all of the money in the pools other than your money.

Since you define the public as everyone other than myself, the only possible answer is all of the above and more.

[BombsAway Bob]

I think it is last race. Many of the pocket guys only see the top line. Good figs on recent form are standard, top last fig not so much as the run line. I drill down into race condition groups and get better answers for the question you ask.

Murph
TVG's venerable MR.B. has been preaching this handicapping method since I've tuned into TVG..
He suggests reading a horses PP's from the BOTTOM of the PP's to the TOP, or last race...
60% of fly-by handicappers will base their picks off a steeds last effort.. Many overlays found this way!

[Robert Fischer]

TVG's venerable MR.B. has been preaching this handicapping method since I've tuned into TVG..
He suggests reading a horses PP's from the BOTTOM of the PP's to the TOP, or last race...
60% of fly-by handicappers will base their picks off a steeds last effort.. Many overlays found this way!

good stuff. Finding win contenders with BAD top lines may be a profitable or near-profitable angle. Would make an interesting study.
One of my favorite running lines is the Did Not Finish "- - - - - - - - - " Not good if the horse blew out an ankle, but if the horse is perfectly fine, otherwise competitive, and the jockey slipped or something...

[Robert Fischer]

my only dispute with the poll answers in general : i think it can vary greatly from race to race.

For example a 2yo race where a horse has 5 amazing workouts will draw attention, especially if combined with a popular trainer

or a stakes race with a famous name horse, who maybe won a breeders cup race or is a star, or even a sub-star like a Tiago or a Grasshopper.
Better Talk Now or Evening Attire WILL get fan money... Curlin will go off a huge favorite if he trys turf. War Pass... Lava Man on the synthetic post Gold Cup 2007...


different reasons for money from the public could almost separate into Types of races or markets

[njcurveball]

This is actually one of the most accurate polls I have seen on here! :ThmbUp:

[Valuist]

since late speed is overbet in most all races, I'd say they like to bet on horses that routinely clunk up for a "fast closing" 3rd or 4th.

Absolutely. I think the public loves to bet running line, especially those gaining at the finish. So far I think the results are accurate. The Sheets aren't really a factor since their cost keeps their information to a limited few. Workouts, outside of SoCal, are pretty irrelevant. I'd say figs, running line, class, trainers and riders would be the obvious answers.

[raybo]

To me, when you, broadly, say "the public", that means the "$2 shooter", someone who bets the minimum bet in every race, sometimes more than one bet per race. In other words, someone who hasn't a clue about, or the inclination to learn, handicapping.

IMO, these patrons bet these factors: M/L odds (relying on the track handicapper to do the work for them), post time odds (relying on all wagerers to do the work for them), jockey (listening to others' praises of their favorite jockey), trainer (same as jockey).

These $2 shooters usually buy the Form, or track program, or sheets, or a combination of the 3, but they don't have any knowledge of handicapping so these publications do them no good.

[WinterTriangle]

Depends *who* you mean by the public?

Let's not forget that those wagering pools also include trainers and connections, who tend to know more about the horse they are running.

If you're talking about the weekend recreational player, I think they look at whatever is written in BOLD on the DRF or whatever form they are using. :)

As for names, like the guy who mentioned his Mom cashing $2 tickets, I once did a month doing nothing but names. I had a +0.82 ROI. :lol:

[raybo]

Owners and trainers may know more about their horse than others but they would still have to handicap the race, looking at the rest of the field. If they did some handicapping, which would probably not be the case more than the reverse, that would put them in a different category than the "public", as I see it.

[Buckeye]

Top Beyer Speed rating is the answer.

Not that they always, or usually win.

It takes an "opinion" on the handicappers part to show a positive return in my humble superior correct opinion.

That's it when it comes to how much I'll give you.

Take it to the top!

Think and compete with me and be better, or consider your losses. Take any race at any track held ANYWHERE and take your chances and make your choices. It's kind of sick. I'm not selling anything, although I theretically could. Nice 15 cent word theoretically.

Does the word Rockamundo mean anything to you?
Sometimes its possible to go out on the limb of stupidity. Cigar could not compete today.

I have on my side percentages knowlege and experience. I'm a little weak on betting strategys but I know what does'nt work.

Cigar could not compete today.

Spoken like a true visionary thank you Cigar. He is waliking around doing nothin at the moment. I'm sure you guys can give me plenty of reasons why I'll never be able to compete. Wrong wrong wrong. Cigar was an undeserving champion. He sucks.

[ranchwest]

Top Beyer Speed rating is the answer.

Not that they always, or usually win.

It takes an "opinion" on the handicappers part to show a positive return in my humble superior correct opinion.

That's it when it comes to how much I'll give you.

Take it to the top!

Think and compete with me and be better, or consider your losses. Take any race at any track held ANYWHERE and take your chances and make your choices. It's kind of sick. I'm not selling anything, although I theretically could. Nice 15 cent word theoretically.

Does the word Rockamundo mean anything to you?
Sometimes its possible to go out on the limb of stupidity. Cigar could not compete today.

I have on my side percentages knowlege and experience. I'm a little weak on betting strategys but I know what does'nt work.

Cigar could not compete today.

Spoken like a true visionary thank you Cigar. He is waliking around doing nothin at the moment. I'm sure you guys can give me plenty of reasons why I'll never be able to compete. Wrong wrong wrong. Cigar was an undeserving champion. He sucks.

Is this English?

[Bill Cullen]

Do you really think the "public" has heard of "prime power?"

Bill C

[ranchwest]

Do you really think the "public" has heard of "prime power?"

Bill C

How many people do you think there are who bet serious money who have never heard of prime power? Not all use it, but I'd guess most have heard of it. Serious money is a big part of the pools.

[GARY Z]

Quite alot of the responses anticpate the public is somewhat informed
about factors which most of us review such as speed,pace, trainer-jockey,
influence of track variants etc...


Yet, as indicated by several posts, a good part of the public concentrates
on the morning line couple with top rated jockeys and at certain points
a review of trainer stats.

Remember, each track also includes its own tout selections within the
program which influences many novices, and certain tracks sponsor
professionals handicapping races ( BEL, SAR, MTH) etc.

If you really want to chuckle, please visit MTH and watch and listen to the
vendors selling their various tip sheets, screaming they had the "Winnas"
of yesterday's double, which :lol: paid 8.00!!

[raybo]

Quite alot of the responses anticpate the public is somewhat informed
about factors which most of us review such as speed,pace, trainer-jockey,
influence of track variants etc...


Yet, as indicated by several posts, a good part of the public concentrates
on the morning line couple with top rated jockeys and at certain points
a review of trainer stats.

Remember, each track also includes its own tout selections within the
program which influences many novices, and certain tracks sponsor
professionals handicapping races ( BEL, SAR, MTH) etc.

If you really want to chuckle, please visit MTH and watch and listen to the
vendors selling their various tip sheets, screaming they had the "Winnas"
of yesterday's double, which :lol: paid 8.00!!

Again, when we speak of the "public", who are we actually talking about? Is it everyone who places a wager? Or is it everyone that knows little about handicapping or uses only: M/L, published speed ratings, finish position in last race, top jockey, top trainer, money won, etc.? The latter group is my definition of the "public". These are the people we have to beat. And, don't forget all the people who jump on the tote favorite bandwagon at 1 or 2 minutes to post, thinking that final odds determine a horse's chances of winning. Most of the "public" I'm speaking of don't really understand what the odds represent.

When we speak of tote odds, IMO, unexpected money is the key, meaning that horses that don't look good and don't have top jockey or top trainer or top speed number, etc.. When these horses get sizable support on the tote, it should flag us to do further checking to determine the reason for the support.

[Robert Fischer]

unexpected money is the key, meaning that horses that don't look good and don't have top jockey or top trainer or top speed number, etc.. When these horses get sizable support on the tote, it should flag us to do further checking to determine the reason for the support.

Could be wrong with this example, but I think of Curlin in his Preakness as an example. From rubbing elbows with "joe public" the consensus favorite was of course Street Sense following his Derby win. Hard Spun seemed like Joe Public's second choice. A likeable horse and the sentiment seemed to be that Hard Spun almost got em'. And "pimlico favors speed, so Hard Spun is gonna get em' ". In fact Hard Spun may have been the sentimental favorite entering the race. At least he was in the OTB I attended...

Curlin was harder to read. He looked like the crop's best athlete prior to the Derby, but Albarado had a tough path to choose, and it wasn't really clear that he was the best animal from the Derby. You really had to watch the overhead view to not prematurely label him "overrated".

However in the large wagering pool of the Preakness, Hard Spun was cold on the board, with Curlin being "The Public's" clear 2nd choice.

There was a distinction between Joe Public and The Public as in the sum of all monies wagered.