The Mystery Horse

[Norm]

If all goes according to schedule (how often does it?), the Peruvian mystery horse, Tomcito, is still to be unveiled in the Florida Derby. Then we will see if he is the real McCoy or not.

His most recent workouts seem to indicate a horse in reasonably good shape. On March 10 he went a mile in 1:39 4/5 breezing at Palm Meadows Training center and on March 17 he went 5/8 in :58 4/5 handily at Gulfstream.

His connections are confident he will win the Belmont Stakes and think he can get the Derby, too. Time will tell. In any event, he makes a good story.

Here are links to a couple of his races, the race calls are in Spanish (of course).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GfogN7mb0w (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GfogN7mb0w)

He is No 2a - yellow silks
The gray running in front is his stable mate "rabbit". Distance is 2,400 meters(1-1/2M)
He seems to handle traffic well in this one.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KVzIkFC-_o&feature=related (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KVzIkFC-_o&feature=related)

This one is a preview of his Derby distance abilities. Here, he is No 7A. He blows away the field in an amazing stretch run. Distance is 2,000 meters (1-1/4M)

It will be hard to take him too seriously 'til after the Florida Derby. After that, it may be hard to ignore him ?

Just for fun, here is his maiden race, 1,100 meters.(5-1/2 F [very roughly] ) Wow!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZNGTN7ZyJc (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZNGTN7ZyJc)

And his second race, 1,300 meters.(more than 6 F, less than 6-1/2 F)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BILxwj40cRA&feature=related (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BILxwj40cRA&feature=related)

Anyone familiar with these Peruvian tracks ? It could be an optical illusion, but they seem to be "Australian", in the sense that the track is rectangular with sharp corners rather than oval. . . . not sure, could be the camera playing tricks.

[bigmack]

Downside: Looks like he needs oodles of elbow room to cut his best stride.

Upside: As the tracks, from my understanding are deeper in Peru, given his "soft shoe" style of run, he could adapt to US soil magnificently. Works indicate his like of North America. (Hell, what's not to like)

[rokitman]

I'll bet that he is going to get a Grade 1 ass-kicking, just like all but a few horses in this country would get, if you threw them into the unique Grade 1 pace call. He'll either be too close to it and get scalded, or a 25 lengths amiss, and hopeless.

[Bruddah]

This South American invader doesn't need to beat much, especially when racing at the 1 1/2 mile Belmont distance. North or South America, beating older males at a distance, as a 2 year old, is impressive to me. Especially over deep less manicured tracks than in North America.

Certainly, Hispanics in our racing world (U.S.A.) have proven to be very capable and knowledgable Horse people. Therefore, I tend to think our neighbors from the South have come here on a Mission. (JMHO) :ThmbUp:

[racefinder2]

THese kind of horses are always exciting as mystery entrants. I liked when the Arabians would mysteriously pay these huge prices for US 2yo stars, mysteriously keep them under wraps, and they would mysteriously run out of steam in the big races. At least this one will have an US prep race out there before coming in, that is, if he can run competitvely in it. Looking forward to seeing him run in it.

[russowen77]

He has got a strange stride but when he decides to run he can sure go. I am glad they decided to do a prep instead of bringing him in only for the Derby.

[DJofSD]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GfogN7mb0w

He is No 2a - yellow silks
The gray running in front is his stable mate "rabbit". Distance is 2,400 meters(1-1/2M)
He seems to handle traffic well in this one.

From the red and white striped pole (distance from wire is ???), I've got a rough estimate of ~10 lengths behind the leader, with the ellapsed time about 0:35 4/5ths.

Is this reasonable or just so much horse-puckey?

[DJofSD]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KVzIkFC-_o&feature=related

This one is a preview of his Derby distance abilities. Here, he is No 7A. He blows away the field in an amazing stretch run. Distance is 2,000 meters (1-1/4M)


Hard to tell the beaten lengths at the red/white pole -- I got 0:35 1/5th.

[Norm]

Hard to tell the beaten lengths at the red/white pole -- I got 0:35 1/5th.
It appears he begins his move at the 300 meter pole (about 3/16m [very roughly, 300 meters = 328.08 yds.])

[DrunkenHorseplayer]

He's moving from high school to the major leagues and he's gonna get crushed.

[rufus999]

http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/2104/tomcitobx5.th.jpg (http://img148.imageshack.us/my.php?image=tomcitobx5.jpg)

Tomcito's dosage index dating from second generation back is 3.00. I have no first generation info.

rufus

[Shenanigans]

I don't think I would throw this one out until he runs once on U.S. soil. His works are great and he is a KY bred whose sire sired last years Derby winner. This is a "wait and see" for me. Personally, I hope he is something so that will give this years Derby a little excitement. Right now it (Derby) looks terrible.

[ceejay]

Looks like he had a rabbit in the route races.

[098poi]

Here is Mr. Frisky, a mystery horse from Puerto Rico. (He won 13 in a row there) I think he came in third in the derby (1990) and was later found to have a throat infection or something.

Santa Anita Derby
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yup7uhbN880&feature=related

Update
(Just saw derby race, he was out of the money)

[plainolebill]

There's some precendence: Bold Forbes shipped from Puerto Rico - he won the Derby and Belmont. Canonero II shipped in from Venezuela and won the Derby and Preakness.

[Robert Fischer]

some old timer was telling me they might run Tomcito a bit more near the pace in florida, let him get used to the speed, and then when they run him in New York let him run a little more natural...

I just hope he is a decent horse who adds ot the mix.

[Bruddah]

Tomicito, if he stays healthy, will be one tuff Hombre'. (JMHO) :ThmbUp:

[Norm]

I found the website for Hipodromo de Monterrico, the venue of Tomcito's classic victories. Unfortunately, my limited knowledge of Spanish does not include racetrack jargon. If anyone with better linguistic skills wants to take a crack at some data mining, here is the link:

http://www.jcp.org.pe/ (http://www.jcp.org.pe/)

One question is; considering relative currency values, does Tomcito have enough graded stakes earnings to be eligible for the Derby in the event he is not the out-right winner of the Florida Derby ?

I also found a link to an aerial view of the track which dispels the optical illusion of what I thought I saw on the videos. The track is quite normal, a 1-1/8 mile oval.

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.jcp.org.pe/imagenes/plano_jcp_1960.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.jcp.org.pe/index.phtml%3Frule%3D47:0:26&h=389&w=523&sz=26&hl=en&start=5&tbnid=tqGejKuf44NhMM:&tbnh=97&tbnw=131&prev=/images%3Fq%3D%2522Hipodromo%2Bde%2BMonterrico%2522 %26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Den%26safe%3Doff%26sa%3DG (http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.jcp.org.pe/imagenes/plano_jcp_1960.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.jcp.org.pe/index.phtml%3Frule%3D47:0:26&h=389&w=523&sz=26&hl=en&start=5&tbnid=tqGejKuf44NhMM:&tbnh=97&tbnw=131&prev=/images%3Fq%3D%2522Hipodromo%2Bde%2BMonterrico%2522 %26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Den%26safe%3Doff%26sa%3DG)

[ryesteve]

One question is; considering relative currency values, does Tomcito have enough graded stakes earnings to be eligible for the Derby in the event he is not the out-right winner of the Florida Derby ?
Well, his total earnings so far are $163k. That seems like it might be a little light, no?

[rastajenk]

Where did you get that number from?

[ceejay]

One question is; considering relative currency values, does Tomcito have enough graded stakes earnings to be eligible for the Derby in the event he is not the out-right winner of the Florida Derby ?

It is a $1,000,000 this year so second money will likely qualify.

[Norm]

It is a $1,000,000 this year so second money will likely qualify.
Sounds like that would do it. I found this site that lists the graded stakes earnings of the contenders updated as of 3/24/08. $150K is the lowest in the top 20 but, with quite a few prep races left, the horses near the bottom could get booted. Second money in the Fla. Derby should put Tomcito into a comfortable position on the list.

http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/Derby_Contender_Graded_Earnings (http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/Derby_Contender_Graded_Earnings)

[ryesteve]

Where did you get that number from?
Wikipedia

[rastajenk]

Interesting. DRF gives him $54,000 in career earnings, not all of which, of course, are graded.

[cj]

I don't think any of his earnings count as far as getting into the Derby field.

[ryesteve]

Interesting. DRF gives him $54,000 in career earnings, not all of which, of course, are graded.Given the exchange rate, 54,000 sounds like what it would be in soles if the $163k figure is correct.

[Bruddah]

Given the exchange rate, 54,000 sounds like what it would be in soles if the $163k figure is correct.

I bet they have a lot more than that invested in the horse, just bringing him and his connections to the US. to race. As I said previously, they are here on a mission. (JMHO) The mission may go unfulfilled, but they aren't here on vacation. ;)

[Norm]

I bet they have a lot more than that invested in the horse, just bringing him and his connections to the US. to race. As I said previously, they are here on a mission. (JMHO) The mission may go unfulfilled, but they aren't here on vacation. ;)
I think you may be right. The buzz south of the equator is that Tomcito is the second coming of Canonero II, at least that's what our neighbors to the south are anxious to believe. Dante Zanelli Jr, Tomcito's preparador (trainer) is resisting the comparison. Canonero II is an equine folk-hero down there and Zanelli doesn't want the pressure of such a task as preparing the next Latin super-hero. Here is a link to an interesting story on the topic :

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44200 (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44200)

[BeatTheChalk]

some old timer was telling me they might run Tomcito a bit more near the pace in florida, let him get used to the speed, and then when they run him in New York let him run a little more natural...

I just hope he is a decent horse who adds ot the mix.

Fair breeding ....Senor Prospector es el padre muy grande y mas :)...
OH ok MR P is Great grandfather... :bang:

[o_crunk]

slightly off topic....but i can't help but look at the graded earnings list and think that the conditions be limited to starters who earned their graded money in their 3 YO season only.

not only does this solve the problem of horses who get the bulk of their graded money during their 2YO then tip toe through preps but also downgrades the delta jackpot with it's 1M purse and prevents horses like turf war, z humor and birbirdistheword from 'back dooring' into the derby off a race that no one is pointing for.

think it would be a good way to get a real derby trail going and a good way to seperate 2YO seasons from 3YO seasons.

[zoobird]

slightly off topic....but i can't help but look at the graded earnings list and think that the conditions be limited to starters who earned their graded money in their 3 YO season only.

not only does this solve the problem of horses who get the bulk of their graded money during their 2YO then tip toe through preps but also downgrades the delta jackpot with it's 1M purse and prevents horses like turf war, z humor and birbirdistheword from 'back dooring' into the derby off a race that no one is pointing for.

think it would be a good way to get a real derby trail going and a good way to seperate 2YO seasons from 3YO seasons.

Great idea.

[rastajenk]

May be, but I don't think that's really a problem. There may be some of those here and there, but Derby history is not stout with worthy runners getting bumped by no-shot 2yo stars. Most folks probably want to see the BC Juvie winner in the Derby, and the Delta race hasn't had an impact yet. There are more new shooters from the Lexington and the Derby Trial than there are strong juvies that limp into the Big One with weak recent form.

Sounds good in theory, but in reality it just isn't happening. At least to the best of my recollection. Can you name any?

[Bubbles]

I think that idea would hurt more than it'd help. Imagine if the BC Juvenile winner got hurt in January, missed a few months, didn't do much in a needed prep, and couldn't run in the Derby. There'd be an outcry of epic proportions.

[Norm]

Tomcito has drawn post No. 4 for the Florida Derby and will have the services of Jorge Chavez in the saddle. Morning line favorite (3-1), the undefeated Big Brown, has drawn post 12. No horse has ever won a race from post 12 since the track was reconfigured in 2005.

From the rail out it will be: [1] Fierce Wind (Cornelio Velasquez), [2] Smooth Air (Manuel Cruz), [3] Da’ Tara (Joe Bravo), [4] Tomcito (Jorge Chavez), [5] Cool Gator (Eddie Castro), [6] Nistle’s Crunch (Julien Leparoux), [7] B B Frank (Javier Castellano), [8] Elysium Fields (Eibar Coa), [9] Hey Byrn (Jose Lezcano),[10] Majestic Warrior (Rene Douglas), [11] Face the Cat (John Velazquez) and [12] Big Brown (Kent Desormeaux).

It's now or never.

[Bubbles]

Big Brown drawing the 12 hole is absolutely devastating. This horse needs graded stakes money to draw into the Derby, and his chances to win this race have gone from decent to slim to none (word has it that Slim's left the building, too). Second place money might be enough, but even THAT might be a bit of a stretch.

[Rackon]

I'm disappointed Big Brown drew the 12 hole. That's a very short run to the turn. He'll have to be really special to overcome this - which he may be.

But Barbaro did win from the 10 hole in 2006 even after being used to get into position around the first turn.

[Norm]

Bloodhorse Magazine writer Steve Haskin has seen the drama in having Big Brown and Tomcito face-off in this race. Both are potentially strong horses, both are making their U.S graded stakes debut. Either greatness or mediocrity awaits them on Saturday. Here's a link to the article :

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44238 (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44238)

[rgustafson]

I'm disappointed Big Brown drew the 12 hole. That's a very short run to the turn. He'll have to be really special to overcome this - which he may be.

But Barbaro did win from the 10 hole in 2006 even after being used to get into position around the first turn.

Pardon me while I shed some crocodile tears for Big Brown and his backers. Your post on Barbaro hits the mark. If this horse is what the hype says he is, he should be there at the finish. Come on folks, "Squeaky" Desmoreaux, with his Hall of Fame talent, should be able to work out an acceptable trip for him.:)

P.S. I'm aware of the post position stats.

[Norm]

After a disappointing 3rd place finish in the Florida Derby, Tomcito is on the edge of elimination based on graded stakes earnings, but maybe, not quite. The horse's owners disagree with Equibase on the amount of his earnings in Peru and are requesting that they re-check their figures. Tomcito ranks 21st, and with Georgie Boy now out of it, he moves up to 20th. However, the owner's claim he should be $48K higher which would move him several places up the scale. He will run in the Lexington if he needs more money. Here is a snippet from the DRF article :

["It looks like we'll go straight to the Kentucky Derby unless it turns out we need more money, and then we'll consider running in the Lexington," said Dante Zanelli Jr., the trainer of Florida Derby third-place finisher Tomcito.

Tomcito earned $100,000 in the Florida Derby. His earnings in group stakes races in Peru count toward his Derby total. Zanelli said he believes Tomcito earned more money in Peru than he has been credited with thus far, and that he is "checking with the Peruvian racing board."

"The owners believe he won $80,000," Zanelli said. His total in Peru, according to Equibase - whose data is used by Daily Racing Form - is $32,673.]

[Bubbles]

I don't think his run at Gulfstream was at all disappointing. He hadn't run since November, hooked a buzzsaw in Big Brown, and rallied from last to check in third in his US debut, one that came in a Grade One race.

There's no shame in not being Invasor.

[JustRalph]

I don't think his run at Gulfstream was at all disappointing. He hadn't run since November, hooked a buzzsaw in Big Brown, and rallied from last to check in third in his US debut, one that came in a Grade One race.

There's no shame in not being Invasor.

I gotta agee with Bubbles here. I know he was 12 back of the UPS Truck, but as long as he has been off, I think he has every right to improve.............

[Shenanigans]

I was happy to see Tomcito finish third but I was unhappy with the way he traveled. He has an odd way of running and IMO, I can honestly say that with that odd way of going, he will not hold up to the rigors of the TC campaign.

[OTM Al]

A couple others on the list above him likely will not be going to the show either eg Kodiak Kowboy, so he could sneak in with 132,000 in earnings. I think he can hit the board in KY and is certainly better than some on that list. Third in a G1 is doing ok for a first back off the layoff for a young horse,

[Kelso]

"The owners believe he won $80,000," Zanelli said. His total in Peru, according to Equibase - whose data is used by Daily Racing Form - is $32,673.]


Is the issue here the caliber of the races he ran in Peru, or the exchange value of his winnings?

(Does anybody know if the KD folks use the exchange rate as of each and every foreign race, or do they value all foreign earnings at the rate as of a date-specific?)

[Bruddah]

Has anyone heard what was decided on Tomcito's money earnings? Or, if he will run again before the Ky Derby?

Personally, I would run him once more, prior to the Ky Derby. He had an easy trip in the Fl Derby and really needs two starts this year to have any chance of winning or hitting the board in the Ky derby. (JMHO)

Then again, (after thought) his connections may be pointing him to the Belmont, because he has proven he can get a distance of ground.

[DJofSD]

I've not heard anything new. But I am hopefully he'll make the list. And run.

[Norm]

I've not heard anything new. But I am hopefully he'll make the list. And run.
Here is the first bit of news on Tomcito since the Florida Derby, he is at Churchill Downs where he just worked 6f in 1:14 3/5 with a final 1/8th in :11 3/5. His owner is hedging about going in the Lexington. Seems to me that he has to, he needs the graded stakes earnings. After this weekend's racing, Tomcito dropped to 24th on the list. If the owner is counting on defections from the list, he may be unpleasantly surprised. Here's a link to the story :
http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080409/SPORTS08/80409029 (http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080409/SPORTS08/80409029)

[Bubbles]

I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't run and still got in. The following horses ahead of him on the list are iffy for the Derby...

Proud Spell: Filly.
Colonel John: Polytrack horse.
Z Humor: Hasn't had the form.
Kodiak Kowboy: Sprinter.
Adriano: Polytrack horse.
Anak Nakal: Hasn't had the form.
Eight Belles: Filly.
Bob Black Jack: Polytrack horse.
Denis of Cork: Dud in the Illinois Derby.

List is here: http://horseracing.about.com/od/triplecrown2000/a/aakdearnings08.htm

This doesn't even include injuries that may occur in the next few weeks. If I'm Tomcito's trainer, I take my chances and wait it out.

[DJofSD]

Colonel John: Polytrack horse.

You hope that he's only a polytrack horse. I think he going to surprise a lot of people.

I'd really like to see Tomcito and Colonel John running with Pyro and Brown Bess, er, Big Brown. To me, that will be an exciting Run for the Roses.

[zoobird]

I will bet you any amount of money that (if he remains healthy) Colonel John will run in the Derby. I'll give you 5:1 odds.

Bob Black Jack is also likely, and if he qualifies on earnings Denis of Cork will also run.

I agree on the other likely defections, and would add Turf War due to terrible recent form.

[Semipro]

You hope that he's only a polytrack horse. I think he going to surprise a lot of people.

I'd really like to see Tomcito and Colonel John running with Pyro and Brown Bess, er, Big Brown. To me, that will be an exciting Run for the Roses.I think it may be premature to say he's only a polytrack horse he is the son of Tiznow. He will be in Derby unless connections are idiots(and I don't think so).

[russowen77]

I think it may be premature to say he's only a polytrack horse he is the son of Tiznow. He will be in Derby unless connections are idiots(and I don't think so).

They were qouted in bloodhorse saying he was Derby bound.

[omalley]

Here is what the owner of Tomcito, William Warren, said on Wednesday as quoted on Paul Moran at the Races site:

Those that are invited to participate in the Kentucky Derby qualify by their earnings. At this point in time, I think it is very, very remote that Denis of Cork will be in the Kentucky Derby. I have pre-paid over $86,000 for 18 hotel rooms and transportation. I feel at this time I need to cut my losses and pare back reservations. Thus, I am cancelling everything except for the rooms for my family. Regretably, the best of plans have gone astray, and I herewith apologize to everyone who placed a bet on Denis of Cork. I'm sorry. The only thing we can do now is look forward to his future races where he has an opportunity to win.

[Pace Cap'n]

Willliam Warren is the owner of Denis of Cork.

[MNslappy]

What's the word, is this guy racing at KEE this Saturday? Anyone have the inside scoop?

[JustRalph]

86K in Hotel Rooms??? Damn,............this guy needs Bill Shatner's help bad :lol:

[Nets]

86K in Hotel Rooms??? Damn,............this guy needs Bill Shatner's help bad :lol:

:lol:

[shanta]

I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't run and still got in. The following horses ahead of him on the list are iffy for the Derby...

Proud Spell: Filly.
Colonel John: Real Deal
Z Humor: Roach
Kodiak Kowboy: Piglet
Adriano: Turf and Poly giant
Anak Nakal: Piglet
Eight Belles: Filly.
Bob Black Jack: Piglet
Denis of Cork: Roach



I've amended your list a bit Bubbles :)

[ManeMediaMogul]

Tomcito is currently scheduled to run in the Coolmore Lexington (G2) at Keeneland this Saturday. He schooled in the paddock at Keeneland on Blue Grass day and looked magnificent.

[Norm]

This morning Tomcito worked 3f from the gate in a snappy :34 3/5 and galloped out a 1/2 mile in :46 4/5. When he came back, he wasn't even blowing. Apparently he is committed to go in the Lexington on the fake dirt course. Hopefully, this work is an indicator that he can handle the surface . . . he needs the money.

Here's a link to the story :
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44609 (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44609)

[DJofSD]

Norm, that's all good news. Thanks for the update!

At the moment, without any "number crunching", I make him a strong contender. And if the surface change is not to his liking, it will diminish my estimation of his chances only slightly.

Being a little lazy here, from a dollars perspective, what does he have to do in the race on Saturday to assure he's high enough on the money list to get into the big dance?

[The WindfallAngler]

Polytrack schmolly-quack, or words to that effect.:sleeping:

Colonel John could be made of *sterner stuff.* By that I mean, he could be ANY kind. (You know the drill.) At any rate, I'm delighted with price I've locked-in.

Getting 17-to-1 in the futures pools. On a Derby standout colt.
--but if he takes this field (and thrashes even Big Brown soundly, as I expect he will), I could be duty-bound to take him right back. In the Preakness. And Belmont Stakes.

But no!

Forced, at long last? To bet against the great Affirmed, still serene (God rest his blaze-speckled soul) atop his Triple Crown heap? after decade upon decadesful of entertaining saturdays, in May, watching every unworthy pretender in a bridle slide back down the slope (Long May He Reign)?

Perish the thought!

--Dean McMillan

[joanied]

Here is the first bit of news on Tomcito since the Florida Derby, he is at Churchill Downs where he just worked 6f in 1:14 3/5 with a final 1/8th in :11 3/5. His owner is hedging about going in the Lexington. Seems to me that he has to, he needs the graded stakes earnings. After this weekend's racing, Tomcito dropped to 24th on the list. If the owner is counting on defections from the list, he may be unpleasantly surprised. Here's a link to the story :
http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080409/SPORTS08/80409029 (http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080409/SPORTS08/80409029)

He's going in the Lex!!!

[Bruddah]

Do you think he could run those fractions over Poly, if he didn't like Poly? He will get the money he needs in the Lexington. I don't know that they will extend him to win, unless it's a gimmee. (JMHO) With only two weeks before the Derby, 2nd would be goo enough. :ThmbUp:

Sorry, I meant to use the quote button for the workout times on the previous page. His latest workout a Keeneland.

[Bruddah]

This morning Tomcito worked 3f from the gate in a snappy :34 3/5 and galloped out a 1/2 mile in :46 4/5. When he came back, he wasn't even blowing. Apparently he is committed to go in the Lexington on the fake dirt course. Hopefully, this work is an indicator that he can handle the surface . . . he needs the money.

Here's a link to the story :
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44609 (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44609)


Yeah Bruddah!!

[Norm]

The Lexington will be on TV. Here is a snippit from a DRF article:

"The 1 1/16-mile Lexington will be broadcast live on ESPN2 on a one-hour show that begins at 5 p.m. Eastern."

Tomcito needs a first or a second to get into the Derby.

[Stevie Belmont]

If Tomicito wins, where does that put Big Brown?

[DJofSD]

If Tomicito wins, where does that put Big Brown?

In what sense? Money list-wise or contender-wise?

[Stevie Belmont]

Well Big Brown buried Tomicito in the Floriday Derby. He also Hey Byrn who cam back to win the Holy Bull. I say it's another feather in his cap if Tomicito wins the lexington.


In what sense? Money list-wise or contender-wise?

[OTM Al]

I would say it means nothing. Tomcito was running his first race off a 5 month layoff and his first NA race as well. One would not expect him to be at his very best in his first race out. If we were talking Smooth Air here, then I would say differently.

[DJofSD]

Tomcito was running his first race off a 5 month layoff and his first NA race as well. One would not expect him to be at his very best in his first race out.

So, the Lexington will be his second start after a lay off. And if the racing gods deem it, the KD would be his third start. I like it.

[jjm323]

Do you think he could run those fractions over Poly, if he didn't like Poly?

Yes, I do. How a horse works over poly is not indicative of how he will race over poly. See Big Truck.

[OTM Al]

Every time they talk about his races in Peru they talk about a deep track. I'm wondering if that sort of surface is closer to poly than the paved expressways that are our dirt tracks. If so, one would think he'll do just fine on it.

[Bruddah]

If Tomicito wins, where does that put Big Brown?

They won't be trying to go all out for the win in the Lexington. An easy 2nd would be my guess, leaving plenty of juice for the Ky Derby. This horse has plenty of "foundation", having won at 1 1/4m & 1 1/2m, as a 2yo.

To answer your question specifically, I like this horses (Tomcito) chances of hitting the board or beating Big Brown in the Ky Derby. Especially, if he can get an easy 2nd in the Lexington. Either way, if he stays healthy, you won't get near the price on him in the Belmont, as the KD. If he gets in, I expect him to go at 15-20 to 1 in the KD. (JMHO) We'll know more Saturday afternoon. :ThmbUp:

[joanied]

They won't be trying to go all out for the win in the Lexington. An easy 2nd would be my guess, leaving plenty of juice for the Ky Derby. This horse has plenty of "foundation", having won at 1 1/4m & 1 1/2m, as a 2yo.

To answer your question specifically, I like this horses (Tomcito) chances of hitting the board or beating Big Brown in the Ky Derby. Especially, if he can get an easy 2nd in the Lexington. Either way, if he stays healthy, you won't get near the price on him in the Belmont, as the KD. If he gets in, I expect him to go at 15-20 to 1 in the KD. (JMHO) We'll know more Saturday afternoon. :ThmbUp:

This Derby just gets more and more interesting.... I look foward to the Lex, and glad they'll have it on TV...this is a very curious horse and it would not surprise me if he happens to have a large heart (as in X factor).... seems he can run all day, and any good horse that's run up to 1 1/2 miles as a 2 :eek: year old, has got to get your attention.
:jump:

[Norm]

Here are the post positions and weight assignments for the Lexington :

PP, Horse, Weight, Jockey
1. Atoned, 117, Edgar Prado
2. Salute the Sarge, 117, Michael Baze
3. Samba Rooster, 117, Garrett Gomez
4. St. Joe, 117, Miguel Mena
5. Racecar Rhapsody, 117, Robby Albarado
6. Felon, 117, Julien Leparoux
7. Behindatthebar, David Romero Flores
8. Tomcito, 123, Jorge F. Chavez
9. Big Glen, 119, Rene Douglas
10. Riley Tucker, 117, John Velazquez
11. Red Sandy, 117, Jamie Theriot

[JustRalph]

I find it interesting that Flores is flying out to ride in this race..........

[joanied]

My Lex picks--

Tomcito (cannot ignore his last two works and the fact they said he wasn't even blowing)

Behindatthebar ( Flores flying in)

Atoned

Big Glen

:jump:

[DJofSD]

OMG - Tomcito has a ML of 6:1 as 4th favorite after Atoned (3:1), Salute the Sarge (4:1) and Racecar Rhapsody(9:2).

I'll be happy if post time odds are anywhere near 6-to-1.

[DJofSD]

A preliminary look at the match up tomorrow -- Tomcito is up against it. He'll definitely have to "kick it up a notch". If he runs to his works, breaks well, some how over comes the outside post bias and is not straggling far back, he could get 2nd.

At the moment, Behindthebar has some very tempting pace numbers. And this is Todd's other horse.

I see early pace runners as Samba Rooster, St. Joe and possibly Atoned pressing closer than normal. Felon and Red Sandy just broke their maiden and who knows what they'll do coming out of the gate. As a guess, I'd say Felon with Julien will be a part of that early contest.

If the early pace is not break-neck crazy, Samba Rooster might carry his speed.

Riley Tucker has every right to get a minor prize.

[joanied]

I'll stick to my picks for this one... and hope you guys get your 6-1 on Tomcito.
This may be a really :jump: fun race to watch. May the best horse win!!!

[Norm]

I'll stick to my picks for this one... and hope you guys get your 6-1 on Tomcito.
This may be a really :jump: fun race to watch. May the best horse win!!!
I'll be cheering for Tomcito all the way. It will make the Derby a lot more interesting if he is in it.

[Bruddah]

1. Unless the race is just handed to him, Tomcito and connections want an easy second. They don't want to squeze the lemon dry, before the Ky Derby, but they must get at least second.

2. He is by far the best closer in this field. However, his best distances are over 1 1/8m.

3. He does have tactical speed and will stay closer to todays pace.

4. The #8 post is ideal for him today. All the speed is to his inside and he will be able to drop over and run 5th or 6th thru the early fractions.

5. He gets his objective of either place (preferred) or win. :ThmbUp:

[DJofSD]

3. He does have tactical speed and will stay closer to todays pace.

I think this is important. If he's too far back, he'll have more problems with tiring horses and he'll need to do more to achieve that necessary placing to guarentee a spot in the Derby.

[DJofSD]

Interesting development: Mike Battaglia mentions Tomcito first in his "Expert Picks" race by race analysis on the Keeland website. Is he hinting at something here?

[DJofSD]

And more news.

The list of horses potentially running in the Derby just got shorter. War Pass will not run in the Derby.

[Bruddah]

I didn't know what the heck I was talking about. :blush: :faint:

[OTM Al]

He was closing well at the end, just got too far back again on a track that was letting speed hold well. Oh well, it would have made for a good story

[Rackon]

Yup, too far back again, and the distance was too short for his style. Despite the sharp work, I didn't see any evidence yesterday of "tacatical speed", at least not on the poly. Did the fast work backfire?

Point him toward the Belmont. And the BC Marathon.

[russowen77]

That was sure a nice exacta. Of course the only way I would have gotten it was if I was playing some kind of hunch number bet or some else equally weird.

I am moving and not playing right now and it was sure a good thing for that race.

[Shenanigans]

Right now, I don't see this horse making any mark in any TC race. He's in over his head and the owners should consider finding some easy races for him to win before trying anymore Gr. 1 or 2 company. He might be a nice Gr. 3 horse.

[joanied]

Yup, too far back again, and the distance was too short for his style. Despite the sharp work, I didn't see any evidence yesterday of "tacatical speed", at least not on the poly. Did the fast work backfire?

Point him toward the Belmont. And the BC Marathon.

Evidently that fast work outta the gate may have done him in...or, he was a good horse in South America and can't compete much here...or, his trainer isn't very good...or something:confused: .
Belmont might be a good spot for him...and, yes, the BC Marathon...which I beleive will be kinda boreing, would be kinda interesting with Tomcito in there.

But, bottom line for me is...I don't :jump: care...didn't think this colt would do much good in the TC races anyway, and since he's kinda a foreigner...I really don't care.

[Kelso]

I have serious doubts about his rider and/or trainer. Last time out, Chavez wrestled him to the rear within the first furlong and Tomicito had no chance to recover. In the Lex, Chavez jerked him hard toward the rail, again within the first eigth. (Looked to me as if he cut off another horse in the process)

Don't know if Chavez was just following trainer instructions or if he has a personal problem with horses from Peru. Either way, I think a very promising young horse is being deliberately made to look bad. No idea why, but I think the tapes suggest something very wrong from at least one connection.

Very disappointed that Tomicito story wasn't given a chance to play out.

[Norm]

I have serious doubts about his rider and/or trainer. Last time out, Chavez wrestled him to the rear within the first furlong and Tomicito had no chance to recover. In the Lex, Chavez jerked him hard toward the rail, again within the first eigth. (Looked to me as if he cut off another horse in the process)

Don't know if Chavez was just following trainer instructions or if he has a personal problem with horses from Peru. Either way, I think a very promising young horse is being deliberately made to look bad. No idea why, but I think the tapes suggest something very wrong from at least one connection.

Very disappointed that Tomicito story wasn't given a chance to play out.
I saw the same thing. Chavez rode him the same way as in the Florida Derby. He got a quick break, nicely placed in fifth, just what the trainer said he wanted in a pre-race interview (that's what the workout from the gate was for). Then, after the first eighth, he jerked him back to ninth, held him there 'til coming off of the far turn, then made this weird inside move where he waited for an opening at 3/16th, got it, rushed forward, stayed inside and met with a wall of traffic. He was gaining steadily from the 1/8th pole home but had nowhere to go. Although 6th, he was only 3 3/4 lengths from the front.

I agree, it is hard to tell if Chavez used really bad judgment or was he instructed to ride that way, but the horse need to be out in the open where he always uncorks his late rush. Whoever engineered that ride cost him a better finish in the race and a shot at the Derby.

[joanied]

I saw the same thing. Chavez rode him the same way as in the Florida Derby. He got a quick break, nicely placed in fifth, just what the trainer said he wanted in a pre-race interview (that's what the workout from the gate was for). Then, after the first eighth, he jerked him back to ninth, held him there 'til coming off of the far turn, then made this weird inside move where he waited for an opening at 3/16th, got it, rushed forward, stayed inside and met with a wall of traffic. He was gaining steadily from the 1/8th pole home but had nowhere to go. Although 6th, he was only 3 3/4 lengths from the front.

I agree, it is hard to tell if Chavez used really bad judgment or was he instructed to ride that way, but the horse need to be out in the open where he always uncorks his late rush. Whoever engineered that ride cost him a better finish in the race and a shot at the Derby.

HUH... I did see a rider take his horse back very abuptly, in fact, thought to myself maybe a horse was being pulled because something was wrong...didn't even realize it was Chavez & Tomcito...I went and watched it again...you guys called it right...I can't imagine the trainer wanting that...maybe he just wanted Chavez to settle the horse after a good break and Chop Chop got carried away?
Well, I think we'll see this colt in the Belmont...maybe with a new rider aboard.

[Norm]

Although Tomcito failed to earn enough graded stakes money to get into the Derby, we have not heard the last of him in this Triple Crown series. He will start in the Peter Pan stakes at Belmont as a prep for an assault on the Belmont Stakes. Curious comment from his trainer : after watching the Derby, he said he was sorry he wasn't in it. He felt sure he would have finished third. The best news I've heard so far is that "Chop-Chop" Chavez will not be his rider. Cornelio Velasquez will be in the saddle, a wise decision IMHO. Here's a link to the story :

http://www.drf.com/news/article/94312.html (http://www.drf.com/news/article/94312.html)

[Norm]

Saturday's Peter Pan Stakes takes on added interest in that the 'other' mystery horse, the Japanese owned and trained Casino Drive, who is being specially prepared for an attempt at the Belmont Stakes, is entered to run against Tomcito and 6 others. The Peter Pan, a traditional prep race for the Belmont, may give us a good look at prospective competitors for Big Brown in the final jewel of the triple crown, if he gets that far.

Casino Drive, whose racing credentials are a maiden win in Japan, Belmont Stakes breeding and a significant price tag at the Keenland sales is the ML favorite at 2-1, while Tomcito is listed at 6-1.

[sandpit]

Saturday's Peter Pan Stakes takes on added interest in that the 'other' mystery horse, the Japanese owned and trained Casino Drive, who is being specially prepared for an attempt at the Belmont Stakes, is entered to run against Tomcito and 6 others. The Peter Pan, a traditional prep race for the Belmont, may give us a good look at prospective competitors for Big Brown in the final jewel of the triple crown, if he gets that far.

Casino Drive, whose racing credentials are a maiden win in Japan, Belmont Stakes breeding and a significant price tag at the Keenland sales is the ML favorite at 2-1, while Tomcito is listed at 6-1.

Tomcito was done at the half mile pole; Casino Drive looked good but, unless he goes on to great things this year, the Graded Stakes Committee should strip this thing of it's G2 status:ThmbDown: .

[joanied]

Tomcito was done at the half mile pole; Casino Drive looked good but, unless he goes on to great things this year, the Graded Stakes Committee should strip this thing of it's G2 status:ThmbDown: .

Casino Drive did look pretty damn good and his pedigree is outstanding...he may be a factor in the Belmont for sure. The good thing is Kent D rode this horse, so he'll know what to expect from him in the Belmont.
What happened to :ThmbDown: Tomcito...geeze...was Chop Chop on board? I missed it on TV, just saw the video...maybe Lobo just isn't much of a trainer, or maybe this horse should have never left his native country. At any rate, IF he goes in the Belmont, I suspect he won't be the threat I figured him to be for BB...which, for me, is Okie-Dokie!!!

Recapturetheglory is out of the Preakness...bummer.

[Norm]

Tomcito was done at the half mile pole; Casino Drive looked good but, unless he goes on to great things this year, the Graded Stakes Committee should strip this thing of it's G2 status:ThmbDown: .
Tomcito's race was disappointing. I've run out of excuses for him. Seems he can't display that famous closing kick on North American tracks where speed holds. Casino Drive's race made me sit up and take notice, not because of the opposition, it was allowance grade, but because of the clock. He ran 6f in 1:10 4/5, a mile in 1:35 1/5 and 9f in 1:47 4/5. If memory serves me well, that's the fastest 9f we've seen this year from a 3 y.o. If he can do that again, there will be a battle in the Belmont.

[Robert Fischer]

tomcito is an overacheiver

You cant get a nice Street Cry for less than 75,000.

Tomcito sold for 7,500

He's missing a zero;)

He didn't sell in south america , this was a Kentucky horse who south american people bought in kentucky sep2006Kee.

You look at Tomcito gallop once, and you look at the price tag, and you know the deal. He didn't pass the conformation test. He doesn't move all that well.

He has accomplished a lot. His trainer here isn't exactly a supertrainer either. There are races that he can win and turn a profit if he is well managed.

[ryesteve]

He ran 6f in 1:10 4/5, a mile in 1:35 1/5 and 9f in 1:47 4/5. If memory serves me well, that's the fastest 9f we've seen this year from a 3 y.o. But how many other 3yos have run one-turn 9f races?
I did think the race was visually impressive, but the splits become a lot less impressive when you compare them to the maiden that won a few races earlier.

[plainolebill]

Steve, Was that was just an ordinary maiden in the 5th?

[ryesteve]

Steve, Was that was just an ordinary maiden in the 5th?He looked like a damn good one for sure, but the point is, it was still a maiden making his first lifetime start, and yet his race compared fairly well to a horse some people are touting as a TC spoiler. Let's say there was no such horse as Casino Drive... if, after yesterday's races, someone said "I think they should run UnBridled's Heart in the Belmont... I think he could give BB a tough test!", I'm pretty sure those comments wouldn't be received very kindly.

[plainolebill]

1:47.87 is much faster than 1:42.12.

[ryesteve]

1:47.87 is much faster than 1:42.12.Not when they're running the final furlong in around 12 seconds. But make up your mind which way you want to argue this; first, it wasn't a mere "ordinary" maiden, now you're telling me his race wasn't that good anyway. And before nitpicking over a few fifths, keep in mind you're comparing a FIRST TIME STARTER with the horse people are touting for the Belmont Stakes.

Better yet, let's just wait and see what kind of a fig the race gets.

[plainolebill]

....Better yet, let's just wait and see what kind of a fig the race gets.

That works for me but if you see any contradiction in what I've said then you need to go back and read it again.

Maiden race not as strong as Peter Pan doesn't = Mdn race weak.

[plainolebill]

99 beyer for Casino Drive. I was overly impressed. :D

[ryesteve]

Maiden race not as strong as Peter Pan doesn't = Mdn race weak.But the italicized "much faster" seemed to be a little more emphatic than just saying "not as strong"... I'd certainly go along with "not as strong", since I never said it was... it just seemed like it was close enough to suggest that the Peter Pan wasn't going to get a fig that was any better than the Derby preps of the Derby also-rans, and if it got a 99, then it didn't.

[rastajenk]

According to the DRF Leadrboard, Casino Drive got a 101, Unbridled's Heart a 100. Pretty good on both parts, no matter how thinly you slice it.

[Norm]

I had pretty much given up on Tomcito as a threat in the TC races. It looked like his poor performance in the Peter Pan Stakes had 'cooked his goose'. After all, Belmont Park, affectionately known as "Big Sandy" to east coast folks, was much like Hipodromo de Monterrico, Tomcito's home track in Peru. Both tracks are of deep, sandy composition. Tomcito should have run well at Belmont . . . he didn't. But then I learned that he had not quite run out of excuses. Here's a snippet from today's CBS Sport's News:

Tomcito underwent throat surgery - a myectomy - at the New Bolton Center at the University of Pennsylvania on May 13, just three days after he finished seventh in the Peter Pan Stakes, according to trainer Dante Zanelli.

Zanelli said Tomcito displaced his palate badly in the Peter Pan. Tomcito returned to Belmont on Friday and resumed training Saturday.

Seems that the Belmont will not be a walk-over for Big Brown. Not only will there be Casino Drive who was born, bred and trained for no other purpose than to win this race, but you will have Barclay Tagg and his assistant, Robin Smullen who, having been denied the Triple Crown in 2003 with Funny Cide, are here for the sole and vengeful purpose of acting as spoilers to Big Brown's attempt. And then there will be Tomcito, flying at he end. If Big Brown wins this race, it can never be said that he won a cake walk, he will have earned the Crown like few others before him.

[ezrabrooks]

Could be that the two best three (3) year olds both ran at Belmont on the day of the Peter Pan...and no, one of them wasn't Tommy Boy..

Ez

[slewis]

Tomcito is a terribly off-balanced horse who has horrible confirmation

His connections have done a sensational job even getting him this far and his purchase price is a testament to his poor lines.

He is also a VERY big horse, another trait I don't like in distance runners on the dirt.
I watched him walk back after the P-pan and he was very very ginger up front.
Good Luck if you back him.

As far as Tale of Ekati goes.... He has already overachieved distance wise.
He ran a respectable 11/4 mile, but a mile and half is REALLY stretching it.
Barclay Tagg should shorten him up. 1 mile. even 7/8 would suit him best.
(I think Barclay knows this..he's one of the more knowledgeable trainers regarding pedigree, dosage, and mating combinations.)
I predict that if he hits the board it'll be in a stagger.

Casino Drive ran an even better race in my opinion than Eight Belles.
Problem with him is the trip from Japan combined with such a strong performance would be difficult to follow up without having a few weeks more
to prep for a race like this.

[joanied]

Could be that the two best three (3) year olds both ran at Belmont on the day of the Peter Pan...and no, one of them wasn't Tommy Boy..

Ez

Wanna tell us who they are....in your opinion?
:)

[joanied]

Tomcito is a terribly off-balanced horse who has horrible confirmation

His connections have done a sensational job even getting him this far and his purchase price is a testament to his poor lines.

He is also a VERY big horse, another trait I don't like in distance runners on the dirt.
I watched him walk back after the P-pan and he was very very ginger up front.
Good Luck if you back him.

As far as Tale of Ekati goes.... He has already overachieved distance wise.
He ran a respectable 11/4 mile, but a mile and half is REALLY stretching it.
Barclay Tagg should shorten him up. 1 mile. even 7/8 would suit him best.
(I think Barclay knows this..he's one of the more knowledgeable trainers regarding pedigree, dosage, and mating combinations.)
I predict that if he hits the board it'll be in a stagger.

Casino Drive ran an even better race in my opinion than Eight Belles.
Problem with him is the trip from Japan combined with such a strong performance would be difficult to follow up without having a few weeks more
to prep for a race like this.

This is a good post....very astute:) ....
the info about Tomcito's conformation is quite welcomed for me...I have not seen him so I can see the way he's put together...and the news of him looking ouchie up front makes me change my mind about this horse, even after his throat surgery, being a threat to BB on Belmont day...whew!! Of course, ya never know...but from what you say, slewis...guess he may not be much of a factor agaist BB.
I suppose Barclay feels he has nothing much to loose with Tale of Ekati in the Belmont...no doubt he does know the horse's distance limitations...but stranager things have happened...and I still look to see a big race out of him...I have a ton of respect for Tagg...he's a great horseman.
Casino Drive worries me no end...this horse seems to have been born with one thing in mind...win the Belmont. I'm glad Kent D rode him in the Peter Pan...at least he now knows what to expect from this colt. I hope you are right about Casino Drive throwing in a clunker on Belmont day...
Go, :jump: Brownie, go!!!

[Norm]

Big Brown looks hard to beat in the Belmont but, somebody has to come in second and the connections of Tomcito have not given up their quest for stardom and purse money. Recovered now from throat surgery to correct a breathing problem, Tomcito worked 7f in 1:29 4/5 on Wednesday (I would have liked to see something a little faster, but then I'm just a handicapper.) It was announced that Alan Garcia, known for his skill on closers, will be in the saddle for the Belmont. Maybe a betting opportunity for the place pool ? He has already won at 1 1/2 miles.

[ezrabrooks]

Wanna tell us who they are....in your opinion?
:)

Casino Drive, and the colt that impressively broke his maiden at 8.5F on the same card as the Peter Pan.

Ez

[samyn on the green]

Tomcito will not run in the Belmont. Big Brown looks hard to beat in the Belmont but, somebody has to come in second and the connections of Tomcito have not given up their quest for stardom and purse money. Recovered now from throat surgery to correct a breathing problem, Tomcito worked 7f in 1:29 4/5 on Wednesday (I would have liked to see something a little faster, but then I'm just a handicapper.) It was announced that Alan Garcia, known for his skill on closers, will be in the saddle for the Belmont. Maybe a betting opportunity for the place pool ? He has already won at 1 1/2 miles.

[WinterTriangle]

guess he may not be much of a factor agaist BB.

I was sort of looking for Tomcito against the rest of the field, not BB.

There's obviously something *in* this horse, esp. given his poor confirmation.

I am heart-broken he's not running. I guess it's not in the star for him to get past his beginnings in life. :(

[Norm]

Sorry to hear he was withdrawn today. He was the best Cinderella story of the TC season. Here's a snippet from the DRF:

Tomcito, third to Big Brown in the Florida Derby, had some congestion on Sunday morning and was declared from the race, trainer Dante Zanelli Jr. said. Zanelli said that the owner, Jet Set Racing Stable, was likely to move the horse to another New York-based trainer and Zanelli would return to his Lexington, Ky., base.

[joanied]

Tomcito will not run in the Belmont.


Also Spark Candle, his stable mate and 'rabbit' won't run.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/Now/News/NewsletterTopNews/45514.aspx

[Rackon]

Erm, Spark Candle is Casino Drive's rabbit.

[joanied]

Erm, Spark Candle is Casino Drive's rabbit.

Erm.... that's :bang: what I said....Spark Candle, his (Casino Drive) stable mate and 'rabbit' won't run.
:) :p :)