Woodside Associates - Race Of The Week

[john del riccio]

The Henry Kuck Ratings for The Spiral Stakes this saturday at TP are available at the link below. Good Luck.

John

http://www.woodsideassociates.com/r...heweek/rotw.pdf (http://www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf)

[john del riccio]

Here are my initial impressions of the field.

DUKE OF DE BUQE has never raced over an artificial surface. He does his best racing on the lead and he's been off six weeks since breaking his nw1x allowance condition carry signficiant weight. Leparoux takes the mount for the Pletcher trained NY-bred.

MACHO AGAIN's worst race came over an artificial surface at KEE. His next worse race was around two turns. Given that he appears to be more talented sprinting, a 1 1/8 mile race may just be an experiment.

CHITOZ has a win over the TP surface as a 2yo where he came from off the pace. In his recent starts on turf he has shown more ealy speed and did so as well in his last dirt start in a one turn mile at CD. Even though he is training well, this particular Pletcher runner may be distance limited.

RICH YOUNG RULER was eased in his last start as the 9-5 favorite in an opional nw1x so even though he has shown some talent, his placement into this spot by low percentage connectionsis questionable.

ADRIANO ran respectably in his lone try over an artificial surface at KEE. With the exception of his most recent race, all of his other starts have taken place on grass. His maiden win two races back was very impressive which prompted the entry in the Fountain of Youth stakes but he drew a very negative post being 12 of 12 that day. Considering he was coming off a maiden win, with no dirt races, and a poor post, his odds of 14-1 actually indicate that he took some action. Prado takes over for Castro here signalling that the connections like their chances.

RACECAR RHAPSODY makes his 3yo debut off a 14 week break having shown two strong efforts sprinting over the artificial surface at KEE. He subsequently stretched out on dirt and handled the transisition quite well. Albarado stays aboard but it is interesting to see only five workouts since his last effort in early December.

HALO'S KING is outclassed.

HALO NAJIB is undefeated over artificial surfaces having won sprinting over the KEE surface in his debut as well as winning around two turns at OTC. He ran a respectable 4th in the Fountain of Youth last out from an outside post and shows a 5f bullet over the TP surface in preparation for this spot.

CANNONBALL has had no success sprinting on dirt but has never missed the board on turf and is making his debut on an artificial surface. Having had only one workout in the last month that hardly showed any speed at all raises questions about him being able to compete here.

EL ALEMAN is still a maiden.

TURF WAR was favored in the Southwest Stakes vs. DENIS OF CORK and showed nothing after an eventful start. He does show two wins and a second in four starts over artificial surfaces but the one race he didn't hit the board was a route race around two turns. Post eleven doesn't help his cause either.

MEDJOOL's six race career has all taken place over artificial surfaces; five different ones in totoal. He is on the improve having just run a career best race while breaking his maiden. He will need continued improvment and will also have to overcome the extreme outside post position.

[Robert Fischer]

medjool - looks great, just broke maiden but has 4 or 5 strong stretch runs, can he win 5-8 wide the whole way around ?

racecar rhapsody- class, synth pedigree, will he be in the dust cloud early?

cannonball- consistent, last 2 races were fast paced turf = well prepped here, bridesmade??

halo najib- no shame in FOY, surface suits, ml odds a bit low, Kent D's 7th mount: will he "steal" great position?

[john del riccio]

CLASS:
======

DUKE OF DEBUQE is facing significantly tougher competition today but his pace & variant ratings showed signficican improvment last out as well.

MEDJOOL is also facing significantly tougher competition today and he clearly
showed improvement last out as well.



PACE:
=====

With all of the horses switching distances and surfaces, there is diffuclty
is determining whom the likely pace setters may be.


HALO NAJIB shows the best pace figure of any runner but that was on dirt as well as being four races ago. CANNONBALL shows a superior pace figure last out but that was on grass. CHITOZ also shows a 75 pace figure which was sveral months ago but that too was on dirt and only around one turn. MACHO AGAIN exists a 6f sprint where his variant rating was 74 but once again, that was on dirt. DULE OF DEBUGE showed signficiant improvement in pace last out around two turns but as has been the case thus far, it was on dirt.

Starting from the inside, DUKE OF DE BUGE has shown that he only runs on the lead, from the rail, its likely that he will be part of the pace but has not shown the level of pace talent that some of the others have. MACHO AGAIN in an even to late running sprinter that may use his tactical speed to be part of the pace but gets a negative jock switch. CHITOZ has tactical speed but came from off the pace while running well at TP previously, he is adaptable. HALO NAJIB's recent 5f drill indicates that he will likely use his tactical speed and it also showed tha he can handle the TP surface. CANNONBALL hasn't run in five weeks and shows no workouts; his two best races were over a yielding turf course.

The horses that have shown the best pace talent have all shown the ability to rate if need be. Thats about all that can be determined due to the number of unknowns here.

VARIANT:
========

Th horses that have shown the most talent are :

ADRIANO (76 on turf around two turns)
RACECAR RHAPSODY (76 around two turns on dirt, 74 sprinting over Polytrack)
HALO NAJIB (75 around one turn on dirt, 74 around two turns on dirt, 75 sprinting over Polytrack)
CANNONBALL (76 around 1 1/2 turns over a yielding turf course).


This obviously is a race where taking too short a price would not be prudent.


The one horse that appears to be coming into the race with alot of positives is ADRIANO. He broke his maiden on turf in his 2nd career start as the 7-5 favorite and won clear despite a rough trip. Off that race he was entered in a G-1 over the KEE polytrack where he beat eight horses; a respectable effort. In his first 3yo start he ran an awesome race over the turf at GP winning convincingly. His FOY effort over a dirt course was an experiment and if his trurf form can translate to the TP Polytrack, he will take some beating.


ADRIANO 5-1
HALO NAJIB 6-1
RACECAR RHAPSODY 8-1
MEDJOOL 10-1


Good Luck,
John

[keilan]

Racecar Rhapsody to win

Racecar Rhapsody/Adriano x's box

Racecar Rhapsody-Adriano /Racecar Rhapsody-Adriano/all tri

[Tee]

In short, I'm interest in seeing how Macho Again runs.

Inside post, decent tractable speed. Being by Macho Uno out of a Wild Again mare there is a chance he does get the distance.

[Robert Fischer]

adriano has looked like a million bucks at least the last three races. He couldn't factor at all in the FOY, but he had the right trip today. What a nice looking animal. Wonder if he is definetly a turf-synth only?

[Robert Fischer]

ADRIANO 5-1
HALO NAJIB 6-1
RACECAR RHAPSODY 8-1
MEDJOOL 10-1


Good Luck,
John

was that the super ?

[Tom]

Cat got your tongue? :D

[jotb]

Hello John:


Great handicapping John. I sure hope you cashed on the race.

Best regards,
Joe

[john del riccio]

Hello John:


Great handicapping John. I sure hope you cashed on the race.

Best regards,
Joe

Joe,

Yeah, Thanks, I did pretty well. I replied once, then twice, but for some reason, it didn't post, I asked Mike to delete the empty posts..... These Poly races are sometimes tough to gauge. I will NOT play a horse that has never shown ability on Poly or Turf.

In the FOY, I though Adriano was an interesting entry and post 12 made his effort look worse than it probably was. I wouldn't be sending him to Louisville in early may but I wouldn't mind giving him a shot at KEE in the Lexington if he were mine. N sens ein throwing him to the wolves in the Blue Grass, wait for an easier spot.

John

PS If you didn't see him on the track, he looked magnfisant.