NEW YORK RACE1 SUNDAY 2-09-03

[NYRAcapper]

Race looks very, very playable to me. Here's how I see em.

#1 CHEROKEE LIGHTNING
Steps up off big win at the maiden cl 25,000 level. This one is gonna be dangerous from this post and looks to be the speed of the speed to me. Beckner stays and this one will be tough. Is a candidate to bounce but the positives outweigh the negatives At the 8-1 she is listed in the ML she is a definite CONTENDER.

#2 SUNSATIONAL JULIA
Get Rojas back aboard, which may be more positive than it looks at first glance since he has guided her to her only win. Ran a decent race in last and can be excused for stopping because of the mud. Ran a very nice one two back also where she broke from the 8 hole and was right up front in a big field before yeilding. Offers monster value at 15-1 and could get it done. CONTENDER

#3 MY GIRL NESSA
Horse has shown nothing plus gets negative jockey switch only win came off a freshening at 7 f. She's not fast enough to be in this one. TOSS

#4 FRISKY KITTY
Interesting off the big maiden win. Has the second best last race final fraction in the race and while I don't think she can win I do think she could finish out the trifecta at a juicy 20-1 odds. LONGSHOT TRI KICKER

#5 LA PRO
This ones got me on edge a bit and I can't bring myself to toss her at 5-1. Chavez stays and last can be excused in the mud. Drop should help and she should be one of two closers in the race close enough to the pace to threaten. CONTENDER

#6 TALESPIN
Jockey switch to Pezua has me a bit intrigued as well as the 30-1 price with Pezua on. Trainer Carlesimo not having a bad meet . However this horse has shown me nothing on paper so I will TOSS.

#7 SWEET AS SARAH
Fits right in here and should improve in her second try at this level. Gets my Gryder off angle which is always a positive in my book as everyone knows how I feel about Aaron Gryder. Still she's a speed horse hung outside of two other speeds and I can't see her clearing. I'm TOSSING but she does have positives and wouldn't rule her out if you like her.

#8 TUDOR COURT
Key to the race, this will be the AM favorite and consider this. She has no more speed than the 1-2-or7 and she doesn't have a better late kick either. Ran a good race last out from the 12 hole but look how far she carried her speed. Does she have anything left in the tank for today. No works showing hmmmmm. Cannot toss and is a must use underneath but at 5-2 MLO and probably 9-5 by post time I will take a stand against. CONTENDER

#9 O'DESADORABLE
Closer with some tactical speed, just what the Dr. ordered for this race. Owns top last race Final fraction and there is not a dominating speed horse or presser in the race. Luzzi ain't a sprint rider but if he doesn't wait to long or sit to far off he ain't gonna have much trouble here. At 4-1 this ones a steal THE CHOICE

#10 CANDY ADVENTURE
Another interesting jockey switch. Should be closing here but consider this horse is 12-1 in the MLO and has NEVER EVEN RUN IN A SPRINT------EVER. That is truely rare and unless she has some hidden sprint speed I can't see it TOSS

#11 CLEVER CONCORDE
Has more right than anyone in the race to improve and her last win came off a long layoff (9 months to be exact) Trainer has a positive ROI off these types of layoffs and may be worth a flyer at 15-1 or better.

#12 MEADOW LOVE
This one has some speed and got her only win at first asking in a 5.5 f sprint at first asking at the SPA. Should show same type of speed off the bench but would have to fly from here to clear these and I can't see her having enough gas left off this type of layoff to hold on TOSS

Selections and my line

#9 O'DESORABLE (5-2)
#2SUNSATIONAL JULIA (7-2)
#5LA PRO (4-1)

kickers and my odds
#1 CHEROKEE LIGHTNING (8-1)
#8 TUDOR COURT (4-1)
#4 FRISKY KITTY (11-1)

Good Luck everyone and remember I am not Sufferin Downs and I suck so don't bet real money on my selections LOL

[jotb]

Hello NYRA:

The first race is TERRIBLE in terms of horses but here goes anyway.

#1 CHEROKEE LIGHTNING. Will be a pace factor for sure but this filly has a tendency to break slow and will need to rush up to grab the lead from Sunsational Julia. She has folded in the past when pressured and or when she has been unable to grab the lead. Keep in mind that Terranova purchased this filly for 160k and immediately gave up on her after her 1st start in MSW company. There must be a hole somewhere with this hole.

#2 SUNSATIONAL JULIA. This need to lead type will have the lead at the first call but can she withstand the pressure from the #1. She like the #1 has won when they were able to clear the field but this scenerio will not take place this time.

#3 MY GIRL NESSA. Hard to make a case for this one. She has shown no form her last 6 starts and trainer John Paone wins a race every 100 starts.

#4 FRISKY KITTY. One hell of a weak field she beat last time. It took her 21 starts to break the maiden ranks and probably will take another 20 starts to win again. That 66 beyer is for sure inflated but will entice some of the bettors but not this one.

#5 LA PRO. Trainer Nevin tried the hood last time but filly ran an even 4th. Could have disliked the off going last time and like the fact place horse returned to win in next out. A contender at best.

#6 TALESPIN. Trainer turns back to sprint but has shown no signs of life over the inner as of yet. This mare did face some over the summer at MTH that would destroy this field today but that's them and this is her.

#7 SWEET AS SARAH. Another filly that will have a say early on but can she handle the 2 on the inside of her. Has beat the #1 horse but the #1 was returning from the shelf and needed that race. The filly right to the outside of her easily put her away in last which does not help Sarah's chances today.

#8 TUDOR COURT. Always respect Dutrow when he puts a horse on the track and this is the logical favorite for the race. Tough post(12) last time but held game through the stretch. I believe the winner from that fray was a drop down winner that day. Expect apprentice MCKEE to press the pace waiting for the speed to collapse forging her way to the front inside the 1/8th pole. Will she be able to hang on late?

#9 0'DESADORABLE- Late runner that will appreciate the pace scenerio. Trainer Hough switches rider today, replacing leading rider Castellano to Luzzi. Luzzi has won with the filly before but that was in the slop. The race 2 back keeps her right in the thick of things today for sure. A strong contender.

#10 CANDY ADVENTURE. Tough to understand why FREGARA claimed this one for 25k with other 25k types within the NY circuit that would have made a better investment. Guarantee FREGARA will eat this horse but he must have liked the fact that she has hit the board 13 times in 27 starts and figures 2nd and 3rds will help grab some of that 25k back. The bright side is this mare has faced tougher and if she is ever going to win on the dirt again, this is the spot to do it. Soundness and fitness is apparant by her running lines but the 99k question is, would she like this distance? Investing in these types usually lead to the poor house but my feeling here is her back class will overcome the distance switch. I like the fact that FREGARA tried to put some speed into this one by breezing her 3/8th in 36.2. I'm not concerned about that last race because that post is tough to overcome and the opposition was tough. LAURENS HOT DANCE returned to win in her next start and this one was 3 lengths behind in 3rd. It's now or never for this mare and the price will be huge because of the connections.

#11 CLEVER CONCORDE. Filly returns back to the races after spending 6 months on the shelf. This is her 2nd time on the shelf in 4 starts which is not encouraging and more than likely need the race.

#12 MEADOW LOVE. Three attempts on the dirt with 1 win which was a MSW for NY breds back on 2001. Obviously this one is heading for the turf come the springtime. Trainer is capable but is the filly. I think not!

Selections 10-8-1-9

Good luck to all,