Derby Prep Race Figures

[cj]

Tracking 3yo stakes route races here as they head toward the Derby.

Count Fleet
Aqu Jan 4 8.3f muddy 84-86, Grey Comet wire to wire winner

Golden Gate Derby
GG Jan 11 8.5f muddy 100-86, Standard Setter wire to wire winner

Holy Bull
GP Jan 18 8.5f fast 96-99, Offlee Wild slightly off the pace

Santa Catalina
SA Jan 18 8.5f fast 102-102, Domestic Dispute from near back of pack

The Lecomte
FG Jan 25 8f fast 89-93, Saintly Look sits a head off the frontrunner

The WEBN
TP Feb 1 8f good 83-79, Champali always prominent wins easy

CJ

[cj]

Sham
SA Feb 7 9f fast 99-98, Man Among Men from a few lengths behind

Whirlaway
Aqu Feb 8 8.5f fast 98-93, Boston Park wire to wire winner

Miracle Wood
Lrl Feb 8 8.5f fast 101-98, Gimmeawink from midpack

Golden Gate Mile
GG Feb 9 8f fast 89-92, Ministers Wild Cat from slightly off the pace in a schooling effort

CJ

[cj]

Las Virgenes
SA Feb 9 8f fast 85-96, Composure sits off the slow pace and still gets up in a nice effort. Beyer guys gave this a 105, don't know why, it didn't deserve it.

CJ

[Speed Figure]

Cjmilkowski, I make my own pace & speed figures these are my figures from the races at GP.


Lion Tamer 110/118/105

Trust N Luck 107/107/103

These are beyer type pace and speed figures.

These are the figures i got for Composure 79/83/99

[cj]

The figures I post are for the leader of the race, not the leader. I do calculate those, but I think the race figures give a better assessment of the "pace picture" of the race.

Do you actually use the 1st call figure? I used to do that, but just didn't get anything out of it. Curious what you do with it.

I'll have my figs for the FOY and Risen Star around Friday.

CJ

[Tom]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski

The figures I post are for the leader of the race, not the leader. I do calculate those,..........
CJ

Huh?

[Speed Figure]

I'm with you tom i don't get it.:confused:

[cj]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
The figures I post are for the leader of the race, not the leader. I do calculate those, but I think the race figures give a better assessment of the "pace picture" of the race.

Do you actually use the 1st call figure? I used to do that, but just didn't get anything out of it. Curious what you do with it.

I'll have my figs for the FOY and Risen Star around Friday.

CJ

Sorry guys, I meant to say not for the winner! The pace figure is that of the leader, while obviously the speed figure is that of the winner.

CJ

[Speed Figure]

I do use the 1st figure just to see which horse or horses have the best early speed.

These are my figures for Badge Of Silver 97/103/108

[Suff]

Originally posted by speed figure
Cjmilkowski, I make my own pace & speed figures these are my figures from the races at GP.


Lion Tamer 110/118/105




I watch alot of races.... This one I happened to be there for... I knew it was special.... It had an aura about it...

Where do your numbers for Lion Tamer stand when compared to other races you've seen in the last 6 months or so? Are these your best numbers?

[Speed Figure]

For a sprint race Lion Tamer ran a good race.The 118 pace figure is fast but the 105 final figure is good and i know he could have gone faster.

Kafwain ran the best final figure for me so far but it is a sprint number.His figures from his last race are 103/108/115

[Suff]

do your figures include any adjustment for Field size? Kafwain has gone 6... 6.5...7.0 and 8.5 furlongs....... But he's never seen 9 horses... 3 - ---7 horse fields and 3----- 8 horse fields.... I would think field size has much to do with PACE? and maybe even more do with Last 1/4 times?

Also... Not to be pesty... But what numbers did you get for Kafwain when Toccet beat him in the G2Furturity? And what did you come up with Toccet from that race?.....

And what did you give Supah Blitz for his 2nd placing in the FOY?

Thanks... I do appreciatte you taking the time to share things you've worked on.

SUFF

[cj]

I won't have Fountain of Youth numbers until Friday when I get Simulcast Weekly, but I'll look up the Hollywood Futurity for you.

As for Lion Tamer, if my figures are anywhere near speed figure's 118-105, that is not a good sign for a horse wanting to stretch out to 10f. He'll need to learn to relax a whole lot more than that.

CJ

[Speed Figure]

Think about this Lion Tamer was 1 length back off a 44.29 half that was a very fast pace.

My figures for Supah Blitz are 99/102/93.

Let me find those other numbers as those are 2 year old figures.

[rrbauer]

Per the DRF

Trust N Luck got a Beyer Speed Figure of 106. Badge of Silver got a 108. Lion Tamer, who scored a runaway victory in the Hutcheson Stakes on Saturday, got a 98, and Region of Merit, who was a stylish allowance winner on Saturday at Gulfstream, got a 92.

[Speed Figure]

I don't think my Figures were to far off at all.

I gave Badge of Silver a 108 final figure his Beyer was 108.

Trust N Luck final figure 103 Beyer 106.

Lion Tamer final figure 105 Beyer 98 I think he ran alot faster than a 98! I trust my own figures.