PDA

View Full Version : Understanding that which is most signicant from past performance


1st time lasix
03-19-2008, 02:17 PM
In another thread {10 reasons why people lose} Jonneilu suggested that understanding that which is significant in pp's is one central key to winning. That may sound fundamental and elementary for experienced players .....but it gets to the core of the handicapping concept. Recognition and extrapolation compared to the odds at hand. All subject to interpetation and one's past experience. What factors today do you recognize that will allow you to correctly forecast if a horse will run true to the past form....exceed expectations.... or dissapoint by running worse than expected in today's contest. Seems like a daunting task with so many variables: Is it the likely pace scenario....is it the class level today...is it the form "cycle'....is it the surface...is it the distance...is it the training angle...is it the "juice" ...is it the post position...the recent workouts.....is it the jock tendancies.... what about a potential "bounce" candidate....a new barn etc etc. You have to find some sort of priority when there is overlap and confict among the factors when seperating contenders. I contend that is merely half of the equation. In a para mutual game with onerous take out.....one then has to compile all the probabilities and properly wager for "overlays" accordingly using the desired pool. The most likely scenario may not be worth a wager. Difficult game!

riskman
03-19-2008, 03:49 PM
The more races you handicap, the more you will notice patterns.( Record keeping is a must) The races in which you do well will be more predictable.(records again)Every win and loss is a lesson. Yes, there are times when there is no explanation. If 10% or more of your races are not explainable---have to go back to the drawing board.You already know, that the most important skill is the determination of fair odds to your contenders. THIS IS THE TICKET TO IT ALL ! The more skill or accuracy that you can estimate the chances of a horse winning, the larger your return will be.
Despite all the knowledge one has, all the hours you put in to finalize your plays, the toteboard will be be your deciding factor when you make your wager. Your wager size will be a function of your edge and average odds.(records again)
Then the gate opens---and there off--Good luck---and luck does play a part in that your perceived scenario does result in a decent trip.

robert99
03-19-2008, 08:00 PM
In another thread {10 reasons why people lose} Jonneilu suggested that understanding that which is significant in pp's is one central key to winning. That may sound fundamental and elementary for experienced players .....but it gets to the core of the handicapping concept. Recognition and extrapolation compared to the odds at hand. All subject to interpetation and one's past experience. What factors today do you recognize that will allow you to correctly forecast if a horse will run true to the past form....exceed expectations.... or dissapoint by running worse than expected in today's contest. Seems like a daunting task with so many variables: Is it the likely pace scenario....is it the class level today...is it the form "cycle'....is it the surface...is it the distance...is it the training angle...is it the "juice" ...is it the post position...the recent workouts.....is it the jock tendancies.... what about a potential "bounce" candidate....a new barn etc etc. You have to find some sort of priority when there is overlap and confict among the factors when seperating contenders. I contend that is merely half of the equation. In a para mutual game with onerous take out.....one then has to compile all the probabilities and properly wager for "overlays" accordingly using the desired pool. The most likely scenario may not be worth a wager. Difficult game!

1st time,

That was essentially what the logit thread was all about
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=44786

The weakness of logit type models is that they average out things as precise numbers when in actual races you can better estimate the range a factor is in from past form and the range that the factor has relevance to today's race, rather than use a precise value.

So is a horse fighting fit today could be based on quality and recency of form, its variance and the trainer record? You only need the answer for all factors "relative" to the other horses, not the absolute values and you can say for example that horse is around 75-85% certain of relative fitness. For pace lines you can use the same thinking that there is a say a 50-70% chance of a fast pace and A, B, C will be favoured, 30-50% chance of a medium pace and D,E favoured and 1 - 30% chance of a false pace favouring F, G. Once you think in ranges and relativity the odds line maths fits right in with that.

Difficult game! - that's why skill makes a huge difference to the likelihood of success but again you only have to be better relative to the crowd - not omniscient.

Fastracehorse
03-20-2008, 05:43 PM
In another thread {10 reasons why people lose} Jonneilu suggested that understanding that which is significant in pp's is one central key to winning. That may sound fundamental and elementary for experienced players .....but it gets to the core of the handicapping concept. Recognition and extrapolation compared to the odds at hand. All subject to interpetation and one's past experience. What factors today do you recognize that will allow you to correctly forecast if a horse will run true to the past form....exceed expectations.... or dissapoint by running worse than expected in today's contest. Seems like a daunting task with so many variables: Is it the likely pace scenario....is it the class level today...is it the form "cycle'....is it the surface...is it the distance...is it the training angle...is it the "juice" ...is it the post position...the recent workouts.....is it the jock tendancies.... what about a potential "bounce" candidate....a new barn etc etc. You have to find some sort of priority when there is overlap and confict among the factors when seperating contenders. I contend that is merely half of the equation. In a para mutual game with onerous take out.....one then has to compile all the probabilities and properly wager for "overlays" accordingly using the desired pool. The most likely scenario may not be worth a wager. Difficult game!

This is a very good thread starter.

U ask all the right questions - and propose difficulties when these questions are researched.

Each of the factors that you discuss can be potent or irrelevant; depending on the context - I think you know this. And becuse of complex contextualizing, makes this game intrigueing. Further, the overlap issue is interesting. Jay Mazur says the more factors the better - but this isn't always true.

I think U need a field with one horse showing the factors of forward progress - to make it easy - it happens. Obviously, there are so many variables to consider, and so many ways to structure tickets, that I made a gross over-simplification in the grand scheme of racing. If I were to pick one factor of the above it would be 'the barn switch' - either off of the claim or simply new barn - that would upsurp all other factors.

fffastt