tracking longshots

[tboles]

Going to try 100 plays just tracking something I have noticed.
Nothing i would recommend betting on at this time. I have no idea how this will pan out!

Most likely some long runs without a score before I hit.

Pha 3/18/08

1st- My Sis Nancy
9th- Master of Disaster
10th- Opportune Moment

[tboles]

Pha 3/18/08

1st- My Sis Nancy Ran out
9th- Master of Disaster Ran out
10th- Opportune Moment Ran out

0 for 3 Wagered $6
Return $0

[tboles]

OP 3/19/2008

2nd- Hearty Wishes
3rd- Salty Sweetheart
4th- Spotted Pearl
7th- Strong City
8th- Star Tribute

[tboles]

CT
3rd- Saintly Hijinx
5th- Houseisinthehouse
8th- Valid Velocity

DED
1st- Enso
3rd- Orieaux

PEN
3rd- Unaccounted
4th- Sylon
6th- Equal
8th- Secret Permission


TAM
3rd- Savannah's WIsh
10th- Food Fairy's Trip

TP
5th- Budgette

[PaceAdvantage]

It's always fun to put it out there in public...this should be interesting...

[juanepstein]

got a possible going off in 2 minutes

sandown-lakeside 6th- #12 mezzegie

[juanepstein]

got a possible going off in 2 minutes

sandown-lakeside 6th- #12 mezzegie

stuck on the inside and pulling behind a crawl finally got out and was flying but missed third at 10/1. flew by them all after the wire.

dropped down to 10/1 so mild longshot.

[tboles]

It's always fun to put it out there in public...this should be interesting.



Acutally PA I have been so busy lately that I have not had the time for handicapping. This weekend I took the time to get back to that. I noticed in our reports that our top 4 were hitting at a very very high rate but there were horses in the bottom tier that were coming in at very high odds.
After looking I found a connection between those in the bottom tier,
"for this day" only.

So, to "force" me to track them I thought I would make the commitment here. I have always had this phobia about horses going off at HIGH odds so just maybe this will help cure that if this pans out. It's my one weakness in my wagering!

So please for anyone looking at these just remember, these are horses listed in the bottom tier of reports and "this is only a test" :)

[nobeyerspls]

Going to try 100 plays just tracking something I have noticed.
Nothing i would recommend betting on at this time. I have no idea how this will pan out!

Most likely some long runs without a score before I hit.

Pha 3/18/08

1st- My Sis Nancy
9th- Master of Disaster
10th- Opportune Moment

It doesn't mater that these ran out. I too look for live longshots and I don't care if it takes ten or more attempts to hit one.
I am more interested in the reason for selecting them. Is there an angle that you have discovered? The picks would mean more if you stated the reason next to the name of the horse.

[tboles]

I am more interested in the reason for selecting them. Is there an angle that you have discovered? The picks would mean more if you stated the reason next to the name of the horse.

It's merely a systematic approach with some qualifying rules applied using our reports. Have seen some whopper payouts with this. Something I will continue to investigate even after this run is over, good or bad. I'm always looking for a no nonsense approach to Long Shots.

Having the stamina to endure long runouts is something I need to work on!
Having the patience to wait days for a bet is another downfall of mine.
I admire you for your patience to wait for live LS runners!

[tboles]

OP 3/19/2008

2nd- Hearty Wishes Ran out
3rd- Salty Sweetheart Ran out
4th- Spotted Pearl Ran out
7th- Strong City Ran out
8th- Star Tribute Scratched

CT
3rd- Saintly Hijinx Ran 3rd 4.40
5th- Houseisinthehouse Ran 2nd 10.80
8th- Valid Velocity Scratched

DED
1st- Enso Ran out
3rd- Orieaux Ran out

PEN
3rd- Unaccounted Ran out
4th- Sylon Scratched
6th- Equal Scratched
8th- Secret Permission Scratched


TAM
3rd- Savannah's Wish Ran 2nd 29.80
10th- Food Fairy's Trip Won 33.60

TP
5th- Budgette Ran out

15 Horses wagered with 1 Winner
Total wagered 30.00
Return $33.60

[whobet]

Yea, Tony is ahead so far

[tboles]

Here are the plays for Thursday.

BM 3/20/2008
3rd- 2 Aunt Jess
6th- 1 Dixie Banker

CT
7th- 2 Erro Primero

DED
5th- 10 Flying on Broadway
6th- 6 Tributes Halo

FG
2nd- 5 Crimson Way
4th- 7 Timeaftertime
7th- 1 Jerry the Genius
8th- 4 Pulaski County
9th- 12 More than Tricky

GP
5th- 10 Hard Lemon
6th- 7 Holy Land
7th- 8 Ruth's Mick

Hou
3rd- 5 Soft n' Loud
6th- 4 Dakota Luck
10th- 6 Spring with Caily

LRL
7th- 2 Belle's Broker
9th- 11 Court Band

PEN
3rd- 2 EverBlazing

[juanepstein]

hawksbury 8th- wps- #8 new hampshire

14/1 morningline

[tboles]

Here are some more LS selections for Thursday

BM 3/20/2008
3rd- 7 Peteski's Angel
6th- 2 Estroteric Thinker

CT
1st- 5 Makin Moonshine
6th- 3 Oakland Park
8th- 3 Dolphin's Tale

DED
7th- 6 Fortyfive N Change

FG
5th- 1 Poppa Duke
7th- 4 Hans Olavesen
8th- 6 Escrow

GP
2nd- 3 Holly Go Lively
5th- 7 Lincoln's Day
7th- 6 Exploit the Sun
8th- 1 Kim's Dixie Tune

LRL
2nd- 2 Scoot them Boots
3rd- 7 Sea Hero's Ghost

PEN
4th- 8 Gracie's Court
7th- 1 Out of Answers

[tboles]

BM 3/20/2008
3rd- 2 Aunt Jess Ran out
6th- 1 Dixie Banker Ran 3rd
CT
7th- 2 Erro Primero Ran 3rd
DED
5th- 10 Flying on Broadway Ran out
6th- 6 Tributes Halo Ran out
FG
2nd- 5 Crimson Way Ran 3rd
4th- 7 Timeaftertime Ran out
7th- 1 Jerry the Genius Ran out
8th- 4 Pulaski County Ran out
9th- 12 More than Tricky Ran out
GP
5th- 10 Hard Lemon Scratched
6th- 7 Holy Land Scratched
7th- 8 Ruth's Mick Ran out
Hou
3rd- 5 Soft n' Loud Ran 2nd
6th- 4 Dakota Luck Ran out
10th- 6 Spring with Caily Ran 3rd
LRL
7th- 2 Belle's Broker Ran out
9th- 11 Court Band Ran 2nd
PEN
3rd- 2 EverBlazing Won 22.00

BM 3/20/2008
3rd- 7 Peteski's Angel Ran out
6th- 2 Estroteric Thinker Scratched
CT
1st- 5 Makin Moonshine Ran out
6th- 3 Oakland Park Ran out
8th- 3 Dolphin's Tale Ran 3rd
DED
7th- 6 Fortyfive N Change Ran out
FG
5th- 1 Poppa Duke Scratched
7th- 4 Hans Olavesen Ran out
8th- 6 Escrow Ran out
GP
2nd- 3 Holly Go Lively Ran 2nd
5th- 7 Lincoln's Day Ran out
7th- 6 Exploit the Sun Won 10.20
8th- 1 Kim's Dixie Tune Scratched
LRL
2nd- 2 Scoot them Boots Ran out
3rd- 7 Sea Hero's Ghost Ran 3rd
PEN
4th- 8 Gracie's Court Ran out
7th- 1 Out of Answers Ran out

31 races 2 wins 32.20 won - 62 wagered
Lost 29.80

46 horses- total wagered 92.00
3 wins
total returned 65.80
Loss of 26.20

[tboles]

AQU 3/21/2008
9th- 7 ALGIERS

BEU
5th- 6 STREET CHANT
8th- 2 CHANTEL BY THE SEA

BM
4th- 6 SIAM BERTRANDO
5th- 4 ERIC`S BABY
7th- 1 SEARCHFORTHETRUTH
8th- 6 JACHONIC

CT
1st- 4 REDSKINETTE

DED
1st- 7 QUARRY QUEEN
2nd- 2 CAPOTETTA
5th- 7 TINNERS TURNUP
11th- 4 PRISSY IS AS DOES

FG
2nd- 10 NEGRA NOCHE
4th- 9 HOUSE NOTE
8th- 4 LIZ`S LUCK

FON
8th- 7 TEN GAGE - 1 PASSED

GP
6th- 6 SPICY VOW

HAW
2nd- 2 SMALL VALUE

HOU
3rd- 3 BEHRING
10th- 5 THUNDERPANTS

MNR
1st- 3 NOMO` COLLEGE FUND
8th- 6 BIGALOW
10th- 5 SIR LUKE

OP
6th- 9 PRETTYHOTNTEMPTIN
8th- 6 BABY STORM

PEN
3rd- 6 TWITCHY WITCH
4th- 8 WEATHER OR NOT
5th- 8 LIL JUNIOR
6th- 1 EPSOMLINE

SA
5th- 10 KBELLO
6th- 3 TOPPERS MOMENT
7th- 5 SWEN RAY
8th- 8 CARTER`S CASH

SUN
10th- 1 PIGETTE

TP
3rd- 1 TORCHIE
9th- 2 FALLING CREEK

TAM
3rd- 2 WICKED SWEET
5th- 4 MR. RACHIN
7th- 3 APRIL`S APPROVAL
10th- 2 MY PRIVILEGED

TUP
4th- 5 ECLIPSING

[tboles]

AQU 3/21/2008
9th- 7 ALGIERS Ran 3rd

BEU
5th- 6 STREET CHANT Won 11.40
8th- 2 CHANTEL BY THE SEA Ran out

BM
4th- 6 SIAM BERTRANDO Won 36.60
5th- 4 ERIC`S BABY Ran out
7th- 1 SEARCHFORTHETRUTH Ran out
8th- 6 JACHONIC Scratched

CT
1st- 4 REDSKINETTE Ran out

DED
1st- 7 QUARRY QUEEN Ran out
2nd- 2 CAPOTETTA Ran out
5th- 7 TINNERS TURNUP Scratched
11th- 4 PRISSY IS AS DOES Ran out

FG
2nd- 10 NEGRA NOCHE Won 20.00
4th- 9 HOUSE NOTE Ran out
8th- 4 LIZ`S LUCK Scratched

FON
8th- 7 TEN GAGE (Ran out) - 1 PASSED (Ran 3rd)

GP
6th- 6 SPICY VOW Ran out

HAW
2nd- 2 SMALL VALUE Won 10.20

HOU
3rd- 3 BEHRING Ran 3rd
10th- 5 THUNDERPANTS Ran out

MNR
1st- 3 NOMO` COLLEGE FUND Ran out
8th- 6 BIGALOW Ran 3rd
10th- 5 SIR LUKE Ran out

OP
6th- 9 PRETTYHOTNTEMPTIN Ran out
8th- 6 BABY STORM Ran out

PEN
3rd- 6 TWITCHY WITCH Ran out
4th- 8 WEATHER OR NOT Ran 2nd
5th- 8 LIL JUNIOR Ran out
6th- 1 EPSOMLINE Ran out

SA
5th- 10 KBELLO Ran out
6th- 3 TOPPERS MOMENT Ran out
7th- 5 SWEN RAY Ran out
8th- 8 CARTER`S CASH Ran out

SUN
10th- 1 PIGETTE Ran out

TP
3rd- 1 TORCHIE Ran out
9th- 2 FALLING CREEK Ran out

TAM
3rd- 2 WICKED SWEET Ran out
5th- 4 MR. RACHIN Ran out
7th- 3 APRIL`S APPROVAL Ran out
10th- 2 MY PRIVILEGED Ran out

TUP
4th- 5 ECLIPSING Ran out

39 total races...totaled wagered 78.00
Won 4 races...total returned 78.20


Total overall
85 horses wagered on
Total wins 7
170.00 total wagered
total returned 144.00
Loss 26.00

[tboles]

FG 3-22-08
8th- 4 SPARKLING JACK
9th- 2 PLEASANTLY BLESSED