Triple Crown Trail Figures

[cj]

This is what I have so far this year...race pace followed by race speed. I have listed the graded dirt and synthetic races at a mile or longer. All numbers are on the Beyer scale, and the pace call is 6f.

01/12/08 Lecomte 95 95
01/12/08 San Rafael 124 97
02/02/08 Robert Lewis 81 94
02/09/08 Risen Star 72 91
02/18/08 Southwest 112 94
02/24/08 Fountain of Youth 102 97
03/01/08 Sham 80 86
03/08/08 El Camino Real 91 87
03/08/08 Louisiana Derby 90 96
03/08/08 Gotham 111 98
03/15/08 Rebel 112 99
03/15/08 San Felipe 85 91
03/15/08 Tampa Derby 102 94
03/22/08 Lane's End 99 91
03/29/08 Florida Derby 116 106
04/05/08 Wood Memorial 122 94
04/05/08 Illinois Derby 97 106
04/05/08 Santa Anita Derby 102 95
04/12/08 Blue Grass Stakes 104 95
04/12/08 Arkansas Derby 114 94
04/12/08 Holy Bull 74 88

[michiken]

Thanks for sharing your figs. Here are some copius thoughts on the energy patterns I see:

- The energy pattern of 124 - 97 from the San Rafael appears way too fast to the 6f pace fig for 1 1/4 miles on Derby Day. Could the 'rabbit' be coming out of this race to pressure War Pass? From your figs, did you notice any monster closers?

- I like the energy pattern of the Fountain of Youth at 102 - 97. A medium fast pace and a fairly even final time (only a difference of -5). I see much less deceleration here. My gut kind of thinks that this race could produce the stalker types which could surprise in this years Derby.

[cj]

I have added the Lane's End from Saturday.

[rokitman]

Hey CJ, could ya add the Rushaway, please?

[cj]

Not graded, but done.

[rokitman]

Yeah, I noticed that you were sticking to the graded races. Thanks!

I knew the pace was a "synthetic" one and was wondering what it was as a fig and if they cracked the 90 mark for the final time. It looked to me like Husbands got caught with his pants down in that race. Appeared that Miner's Claim only got up to speed the last sixteenth.

[cj]

The synthetic races are run like turf races, especially the routes, so often my overall performance figure for a horse is higher than the same horse's speed figure. This goes for each and every sythetic track running.

For those that missed it, check this out:

Synthetic track study (http://www.pacefigures.com/synthetics)

[Bubbles]

- I like the energy pattern of the Fountain of Youth at 102 - 97. A medium fast pace and a fairly even final time (only a difference of -5). I see much less deceleration here. My gut kind of thinks that this race could produce the stalker types which could surprise in this years Derby.
I agree with the observation, and it makes me like Elysium Fields a LOT in the Florida Derby upon first look, given his trip in that race. Cool Coal Man did run well, but he had a great trip and only won by a neck over a horse that went much wider.

[Tom]

I convert the 102 97 to a Quirin style 109.5 / 105.
I need a 107/ 111 minimum (113/113 is par) performance.
If he can get that final fig up a couple of lengths, I'll be looking at him.

[cj]

I convert the 102 97 to a Quirin style 109.5 / 105.
I need a 107/ 111 minimum (113/113 is par) performance.
If he can get that final fig up a couple of lengths, I'll be looking at him.

Since none of the horses have really come close to that par yet, is this going to be a total chaos race?

[Tom]

I think so.
All these slow paced preps and synthetic surfaces don't help the traditional
parameters at all! :rolleyes:

But, it might help prices.

Usually, the very last preps are where the par numbers show up. I dunno this year.

[jonnielu]

Since none of the horses have really come close to that par yet, is this going to be a total chaos race?

So far, the ingredients for chaos is stirring in pretty well with 5 - 6 horses having a fitting style for the distance and a relative equality in ability. Forget the figs, check all stretch runs for a Pyro-like want for the wire.

War Pass will have to set a record in the Wood to get any of this crew to chase him in Kentucky.

jdl

[cj]

Florida Derby added.

[cj]

Illinois Derby, Santa Anita Derby, and Wood Memorial added.

[ryesteve]

Wood Memorial added.At least the "122" part was impressive...

[Charlie D]

A nice improvement from Sham for Colonel John there CJ

[JustRalph]

cj, are you going to leave these up until the Derby?

[cj]

Yes, I'll leave them here, and add the Triple Crown races as well.

[cj]

I added the Arkansas Derby and the Blue Grass. I'll get to the Holy Bull a little later.


01/12/08 Lecomte 95 95
01/12/08 San Rafael 124 97
02/02/08 Robert Lewis 81 94
02/09/08 Risen Star 72 91
02/18/08 Southwest 112 94
02/24/08 Fountain of Youth 102 97
03/01/08 Sham 80 86
03/08/08 El Camino Real 91 87
03/08/08 Louisiana Derby 90 96
03/08/08 Gotham 111 98
03/15/08 Rebel 112 99
03/15/08 San Felipe 85 91
03/15/08 Tampa Derby 102 94
03/22/08 Lane's End 99 91
03/29/08 Florida Derby 116 106
04/05/08 Wood Memorial 122 94
04/05/08 Illinois Derby 97 106
04/05/08 Santa Anita Derby 102 95
04/12/08 Blue Grass Stakes 104 95
04/12/08 Arkansas Derby 114 94
04/12/08 Holy Bull 74 88
04/19/08 Lexington 123 99

[PaceAdvantage]

Man that Florida Derby figure set sticks out like a sore thumb....

[cj]

Yes, it sure does. I'd be interested in any closers that ran well in the Illinois Derby, but none did, so out goes that idea.

On another note, one thing to keep in mind is that synthetic track figures, like turf, tend to be lower than dirt because of the nature of the pace. For example, you will usually see 120 and higher on dirt a few times a year, but you will never see it on turf or synthetic.

So, if you want to equate the two, I have a little formula that works pretty good. In this figure range though, adding about 5 works well enough.

[ManeMediaMogul]

When I looked at the horses who finished in the top three in the races you rated the highest, other than one horse who is off the Derby trail, there were no duplications - 25 different horses have finished in the money in those Derby preps.

Obviously, this year's edition is up for grabs.

[Golf and Horses]

On another note, one thing to keep in mind is that synthetic track figures, like turf, tend to be lower than dirt because of the nature of the pace. For example, you will usually see 120 and higher on dirt a few times a year, but you will never see it on turf or synthetic.

So, if you want to equate the two, I have a little formula that works pretty good. In this figure range though, adding about 5 works well enough.

Add 5 to the pace figure, final figure or both?

[cj]

I actually posted a conversion in another thread in the handicapping section. It would have to be both.

[Golf and Horses]

Interesting stuff, Thanks :ThmbUp:

[cj]

Withers and Derby added.

01/12/08 Lecomte 95 95
01/12/08 San Rafael 124 97
02/02/08 Robert Lewis 81 94
02/09/08 Risen Star 72 91
02/18/08 Southwest 112 94
02/24/08 Fountain Youth 102 97
03/01/08 Sham 80 86
03/08/08 El Camino Real 91 87
03/08/08 Louisiana Dby 90 96
03/08/08 Gotham 111 98
03/15/08 Rebel 112 99
03/15/08 San Felipe 85 91
03/15/08 Tampa Derby 102 94
03/22/08 Lane's End 99 91
03/29/08 Florida Derby 116 106
04/05/08 Wood Memorial 122 94
04/05/08 Illinois Derby 97 106
04/05/08 Santa Anita Derby 102 95
04/12/08 Blue Grass Stakes 104 95
04/12/08 Arkansas Derby 114 94
04/12/08 Holy Bull 74 88
04/19/08 Lexington 123 99
04/27/08 Withers 106 101
05/03/08 Ken Derby 109 106

[cj]

Added the Derby (and the Withers)

[Tom]

Comverting that to Quirin pace and speed figs, the Derby went 113-113, exactly par.

The only better prep was the Florida Drby, coming in at 116-113. Who won that one?

[cj]

I had the Withers pasted wrong initially, sorry.

[cj]

Adding the Peter Pan and Preakness:


01/12/08 Lecomte 95 95
01/12/08 San Rafael 124 97
02/02/08 Robert Lewis 81 94
02/09/08 Risen Star 72 91
02/18/08 Southwest 112 94
02/24/08 Fountain Youth 102 97
03/01/08 Sham 80 86
03/08/08 El Camino Real 91 87
03/08/08 Louisiana Dby 90 96
03/08/08 Gotham 111 98
03/15/08 Rebel 112 99
03/15/08 San Felipe 85 91
03/15/08 Tampa Derby 102 94
03/22/08 Lane's End 99 91
03/29/08 Florida Derby 116 106
04/05/08 Wood Memorial 122 94
04/05/08 Illinois Derby 97 106
04/05/08 Santa Anita D 102 95
04/12/08 Blue Grass S 104 95
04/12/08 Arkansas Derby 114 94
04/12/08 Holy Bull 74 88
04/19/08 Lexington 123 99
04/27/08 Withers 106 101
05/03/08 Ken Derby 109 106
05/10/08 Peter Pan 98 99
05/17/08 Preakness 108 98

[delayjf]

CJ,

Correct me if I'm wrong, but from an historical perspective figure wise, BB is nothing special. I recall War Emblems derby figure of 109 and I think his Preakness figure might have been even higher. And did Silver Charm run triple crown figures in the 115 range?

If that's true then it looks like we've got one Average Derby horse and all the rest are really just Grade 2 horses.

[ryesteve]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but from an historical perspective figure wise, BB is nothing special.I'd say that until he's actually tested, we don't know. I'm not going to look at these jogs and complain that the figs were low. He'd have to be winning his races by 20 lengths to earn figs that would impress us, but there's no reason for him to have to do so. So for now, all I can say is that from a historical perspecitve, he's special based on how he's been able to win these races. But I don't know if he's ever going to have the opportunity to run a fig that will be historically impressive.

[delayjf]

I hope he does go on to win the Triple Crown, I think it would be great for the sport. Personally as a handicapper, you have to shake your head a bit when you see a horse win the Triple Crown with the lowest Speed figures in the Derby and Preakness (106 - 100) in memory.

He won the preakness with a speed figure of 100 - BY FIVE LENGTHS. What does that say about the competition??

[PaceAdvantage]

It really bothers me to see these low numbers put out for the Preakness. Yeah, KD was gearing him down after mid-stretch, but it wasn't like he was standing up on the horse....

A 100 Beyer for BB means that Macho Again ran what? Around a 90? That's 9 points lower than his last....It also means Icabad Crane didn't improve off his Tesio victory, despite the Preakness being only his 5th career start....Racecar Rhapsody also ends up running 8 points lower than his last....all these horses regressed and/or did not improve?

[Rackon]

Erm, so maybe BB regressed slightly as predicted and he's still 5 lengths the better, or maybe we see what Jerry Brown's figs have to say. The Thorograph figs for the KD said it was one of the best ever. And maybe Kent doesn't have to stand up on him to slow him down? BB sure didn't want to pull up after the wire.

Just sayin'.

[jonnielu]

It really bothers me to see these low numbers put out for the Preakness. Yeah, KD was gearing him down after mid-stretch, but it wasn't like he was standing up on the horse....

A 100 Beyer for BB means that Macho Again ran what? Around a 90? That's 9 points lower than his last....It also means Icabad Crane didn't improve off his Tesio victory, despite the Preakness being only his 5th career start....Racecar Rhapsody also ends up running 8 points lower than his last....all these horses regressed and/or did not improve?

Hey.. Hey... that's enough with that sort of questioning, you've got to shave some things to get the square pegs to fit into the round holes.

jdl

[PaceAdvantage]

Hey.. Hey... that's enough with that sort of questioning, you've got to shave some things to get the square pegs to fit into the round holes.

jdlDo you honestly believe that this kind of reply is worth something? To whom?

How about a worthwhile dialogue for a change. Do you think you can post something worthwhile that doesn't criticize something just for the sake of criticism?

[rastajenk]

Man, that guy is annoying.

[PaceAdvantage]

Forget about him....let's get back to my post and let's hear from folks who are interested in a worthwhile dialogue.

[rastajenk]

It looks like everything out of the Lexington didn't do as well, Beyer-wise, so maybe it's that number that was a little misleading. The Blue Grass boys didn't fare so well in the Derby, either, so maybe it shouldn't have been expected that the Lexington was much. And Macho's Derby Trial was a big spike from his previous, and those are often followed up by a return to normalcy. Much of the rest of the field is solidly in the 80's range of the spectrum, and they probably got those figs again Saturday. I'm thinking, going down to about sixth or seventh place anyway, that most of the also-rans will get about what they usually produce.

[Charlie D]

I know horses are not machines, but there seems to be a fair few inconsistent horses around.

Horses running ok in one or two races and then running as though they've something amiss in the next one or two is bit of a worry tbh

[proximity]

:) this is yet another figure that i disagree with. perhaps joining the speed figure police would be my true calling. apologies in advance to mr beyer.

john del riccio, with your permission i will post your preakness figure. (yes, i agree 100% with this one.)

anyhow, i believe john's figures for the preakness card are still up on the "woodside preakness" thread. with these numbers and a copy of the preakness result chart you can project what you think the race went in.

[Tee]

By my funny math Macho Again would have a BSF 92-93 & Icabad Crane 91-92.


It really bothers me to see these low numbers put out for the Preakness. Yeah, KD was gearing him down after mid-stretch, but it wasn't like he was standing up on the horse....

A 100 Beyer for BB means that Macho Again ran what? Around a 90? That's 9 points lower than his last....It also means Icabad Crane didn't improve off his Tesio victory, despite the Preakness being only his 5th career start....Racecar Rhapsody also ends up running 8 points lower than his last....all these horses regressed and/or did not improve?

[PaceAdvantage]

I am going with the 1 length=2 Beyer Points at a route....


BB=100
Macho Again beaten by 5 1/4 lengths = 10.5 points giving him 89.5 and so on...

[proximity]

I am going with the 1 length=2 Beyer Points at a route....



@ 1 3/16 i believe he uses closer to a point and a half per length. still agree that it may be a bit low.

[Semipro]

I am going with the 1 length=2 Beyer Points at a route....


BB=100
Macho Again beaten by 5 1/4 lengths = 10.5 points giving him 89.5 and so on...I believe people should stop looking at the numbers so hard in this race and start seeing what they witnessed in the replay of the race.

[proximity]

It looks like everything out of the Lexington didn't do as well, Beyer-wise, so maybe it's that number that was a little misleading. The Blue Grass boys didn't fare so well in the Derby, either, so maybe it shouldn't have been expected that the Lexington was much

if the final figure in this lexington is so high then the total effort of samba rooster in the race stamps him as one of the best horses in the world..... :45.. fractions on POLYTRACK and still holding on for 2nd, beaten only 1 length in a race with a high speed figure..... but then the horse loses at lone star (usually more favorable to early speed).

[proximity]

I believe people should stop looking at the numbers so hard in this race and start seeing what they witnessed in the replay of the race.

i believe you are right semipro, but it is still interesting to talk about especially considering now that big brown technically won't be the "top figure" for the belmont.

[Charlie D]

I believe people should stop looking at the numbers so hard in this race and start seeing what they witnessed in the replay of the race.


I believe people should read this

Big Brown's performance surely gave the impression that his potential is limitless. Indeed, so did his runaway Kentucky Derby victory. But experienced race-watchers and handicappers know that these win-under-a-hammerlock victories are frequently deceptive.

[cj]

It really bothers me to see these low numbers put out for the Preakness. Yeah, KD was gearing him down after mid-stretch, but it wasn't like he was standing up on the horse....

A 100 Beyer for BB means that Macho Again ran what? Around a 90? That's 9 points lower than his last....It also means Icabad Crane didn't improve off his Tesio victory, despite the Preakness being only his 5th career start....Racecar Rhapsody also ends up running 8 points lower than his last....all these horses regressed and/or did not improve?

First, the track speed seemed very consistent throughout the day, and if anything, the last race seemed to speed up. So, to give a higher figure, you have to completely cut the race away from the rest of the day. Certainly that has been done before, but I like to see some kind of evidence to do so.

I looked hard at the other horses, as that is the only other evidence there is. You certainly can't use Big Brown. So, I started with Macho Again. I had his last at 99, earned with a dream trip against a very fast pace going 2 furlongs shorter. To me, it isn't a stretch to see him drop a few lengths while experiencing some trouble going the extra distance. Nothing indicates this horse should get better at longer distances. As you know, I combine various factors to give an overall rating, or Performance Figure (PF), for each horse, and this horse only dropped from a 96 to a 94.

Icabad Crane was given an 87 for the Tesio by Beyer, I gave him an 85. In the Preakness, I gave him a 90, so he certainly did impove. A lot of that was due to the absurdly slow pace he faced in winning the Tesio. I had him improving his PF from 83 to 92.

Racecar Rhapsody is a big closer coming off a dream setup in a polytrack race. He pretty much runs the same race every time on my figures, and he'll be very close this time.

One note, you are overestimating the beaten lengths adjustment. At the 9.5f distance it is only about 1.5 points per length.

[nobeyerspls]

It really bothers me to see these low numbers put out for the Preakness. Yeah, KD was gearing him down after mid-stretch, but it wasn't like he was standing up on the horse....

A 100 Beyer for BB means that Macho Again ran what? Around a 90? That's 9 points lower than his last....It also means Icabad Crane didn't improve off his Tesio victory, despite the Preakness being only his 5th career start....Racecar Rhapsody also ends up running 8 points lower than his last....all these horses regressed and/or did not improve?

Why does the low number matter. We all watched a horse dominate three Grade I races, overcoming a difficult post position in the first two. Could we identify him as a probable winner if they didn't assign speed figures? What if they didn't time the races? We'd see an undefeated horse destroying all challengers including that galloping hand ride in the Preakness.
The people who manage this horse do not want to "earn" figures, the want to earn money. While it is true that his competition is weak (confirmed by a filly finishing ahead of all the colts in the Derby), that does not lesson his ability. Was Secretariat less of a horse because Sham wasn't that good?
Big Brown's premature retirement at age three means that we may never know how good he is but that's the financial dynamic of the sport today. The black-type mares will be waiting in line next year and the exhorbitant stud fee will not be affected by the assignment of speed figures.

[Rackon]

Sham was a top horse, a potential TC winner any other year - he simply had the misfortune of being born in the same season as Secretariat.

[delayjf]

Why does the low number matter
From my perspective, If the KD figure of 106 and the PR figure of 100 are accurate then BB is vunerable because he's not performing at a level that would require a special horse to achieve - in other words its not unusual for grade 1 caliber 3yr olds to run figures in the 100 to 106 range.

[classhandicapper]

When I first saw the Beyer it looked a little low to me too. But crazy things can impact figures.

Perhaps the run up for the Preakness was a little shorter than it usually is?

Perhaps there was a gust of wind against them at some point?

The pace wasn't fast, but relative to the limited ability of some of the horses other than BB, it was a bit quick. So perhaps that sapped some of the others a bit (the 2 leaders were last and next to last).

I know some people are very literal with numbers, but IMO it's enough to know that this was a subpar Preakness in terms of quality and it was also slow. We are more or less debating how slow (couple of 1/5ths here or there).

On the flip side, BB ran hard for about 1/8th of a mile and opened up 5 lengths. So it's really hard to tell how fast he could have run if had to. My view if him is more or less the same as before the Preakness. I am debating the level of his potential greatness if he develops through the summer and runs in the Fall.

[PaceAdvantage]

First, the track speed seemed very consistent throughout the day, and if anything, the last race seemed to speed up. So, to give a higher figure, you have to completely cut the race away from the rest of the day. Certainly that has been done before, but I like to see some kind of evidence to do so.

I looked hard at the other horses, as that is the only other evidence there is. You certainly can't use Big Brown. So, I started with Macho Again. I had his last at 99, earned with a dream trip against a very fast pace going 2 furlongs shorter. To me, it isn't a stretch to see him drop a few lengths while experiencing some trouble going the extra distance. Nothing indicates this horse should get better at longer distances. As you know, I combine various factors to give an overall rating, or Performance Figure (PF), for each horse, and this horse only dropped from a 96 to a 94.

Icabad Crane was given an 87 for the Tesio by Beyer, I gave him an 85. In the Preakness, I gave him a 90, so he certainly did impove. A lot of that was due to the absurdly slow pace he faced in winning the Tesio. I had him improving his PF from 83 to 92.

Racecar Rhapsody is a big closer coming off a dream setup in a polytrack race. He pretty much runs the same race every time on my figures, and he'll be very close this time.

One note, you are overestimating the beaten lengths adjustment. At the 9.5f distance it is only about 1.5 points per length.Thanks for the recap. I can't argue against anything you wrote, and even came to some similar conclusions after I studied these horses a little more closely (unfortunately, AFTER I posted that reply...)

[proximity]

So, to give a higher figure, you have to completely cut the race away from the rest of the day. Certainly that has been done before, but I like to see some kind of evidence to do so.


you may disagree, but my "evidence" for doing so would be that the race was contested at a distance that is rarely run. maybe mr beyer does, but i don't feel that it's safe to assume that there is a set relationship between one route distance and other route distances when there are less than a handful of races at one of the distances at that track every year.

[proximity]

[QUOTE=cj)

You certainly can't use Big Brown. [/QUOTE]


why would this be?

[proximity]

Why does the low number matter..

i'm not sure either that the exactness of this particular number matters in the grand scheme of things. but this is a FIGURES thread, right? and if nothing else it's educational for some of us addicts to learn from the thoughts of some of the great figure makers here like cj, john del riccio, sjk, and others.....

[cj]

you may disagree, but my "evidence" for doing so would be that the race was contested at a distance that is rarely run. maybe mr beyer does, but i don't feel that it's safe to assume that there is a set relationship between one route distance and other route distances when there are less than a handful of races at one of the distances at that track every year.

It is possible, but the distance isn't that rare and the relationship between 9.5f and other routes has held up very well over the years at Pimlico. As many have mentioned, the figure for Big Brown doesn't matter much, but the others in the field will run back with that Preakness Stakes line on top drawing support.

[rastajenk]

Why does the low number matter. Becasue he still a race or more to run, so there's still some handicapping to be done. Sure, he's been dominant and you don't need numbers to realize that. But every race is its own puzzle. I don't care whether he gets a 100 or a 110 or a 120 for the purposes of historical comparisons; but what he earns in the Preakness means a great deal for the purpose of handicapping the Belmont. That's why the low number matters.

[magwell]

From my perspective, If the KD figure of 106 and the PR figure of 100 are accurate then BB is vunerable because he's not performing at a level that would require a special horse to achieve - in other words its not unusual for grade 1 caliber 3yr olds to run figures in the 100 to 106 range. Even if the numbers are right {which i think are bogus} and he reacted from the 109 to 100 he figures to go forward and come back to the 109 or better in the Belmont imo.....:cool:

[plainolebill]

Most horse players 'die broke' because they don't recognize a train until the caboose rolls by. I'm going to at least entertain the idea that BB may be vulnerable in the Belmont.

[rokitman]

Most horse players 'die broke' because they don't recognize a train until the caboose rolls by. I'm going to at least entertain the idea that BB may be vulnerable in the Belmont.
Godd punishes jockeys who grandstand by looking under their arms for competition they already know is not there. Send it in.

[nobeyerspls]

Becasue he still a race or more to run, so there's still some handicapping to be done. Sure, he's been dominant and you don't need numbers to realize that. But every race is its own puzzle. I don't care whether he gets a 100 or a 110 or a 120 for the purposes of historical comparisons; but what he earns in the Preakness means a great deal for the purpose of handicapping the Belmont. That's why the low number matters.

So, you can use the number in your handicapping or you can watch the replay of his public workout in company to determine his chances in the next race. Which one will influence you more?
I saw the race and cannot believe that the raw time or figure would matter to anybody. I expect that the Belmont will be more of a challenge and hope that Big Brown gets to experience a horse race for the first time in his career.

[rastajenk]

The numbers, for sure. Relying on horses to duplicate visually impressive performances is the quickest way to the poorhouse that I know of.

More Beyers, please. :jump:

[Pace Cap'n]

Relying on Beyer figures is another quick route.