PDA

View Full Version : 16Mar08SA *** Selections ***


SRK
03-16-2008, 02:15 PM
Race 1



A compact and rather placeless field contest today’s opener at a mile, for $25,000 3-y-o filly claimers. Hottodi (1) was not totally embarrassed while overmatched trying stakes company on the turf, in her last. She’s back on the AW, and that is a winning move for trainer William Currin. Applaud Dubai (5) finished just behind the top choice two back. She has shown a hint of zip sprinting, and has worked well since returning from her second place effort, up at Bay Meadows, as the even money favorite, at this same tag. She attracted Russell Baze in that one, but the jock switch back to Almeida doesn’t help, though. I don’t recommend playing tri’s in six horse fields, especially when the favorite figures. Another horse with a good chance to hit the board, however, is Queen Holly (2) who usually gets close, likes the AW, and should be finishing better than the rest of the come from behinders.



Race 2



A fairly mediocre group of state-bred maiden claimers try seven furlongs here. None inspire much confidence, including tepid and vulnerable morning line fave Benchmark Kid (10). He has already failed twice at this level, finishing behind Raingear (5) both times. That one is no cinch either, but figures to be prominent here. Two who might pop up are second timer Pre Edge (7) who recovered from a slow start in his debut to finish with interest in a decent time for this level. Toppler (9) has also proved he belongs with this kind, and should be a fair price on the board. I’d include both on your tickets.



Race 3



This time it’s the allowance crowd that go 7F. They look somewhat evenly matched, on paper, so I wouldn’t get too carried away with any of them, including morning line favorite Valiant Effort (2). He certainly has the “numbers” to get the job done, but the question is, can he handle the open company, after handling the Calbreds. Trail Mix came out of the same race as Valiant Effort’s last, to win yesterday, but against modest $10k claimers. Another vulnerable favorite, but would be no huge surprise either. The list of possible up setters include, Instant Action (5) who proved he belonged in this group in his last. In fact, he has finished first or second in nine of his ten lifetime starts. Informed (3), shortens up for Bob Baffert, after a brief vacation. He has been training very nicely for his return, and if the fave takes just one bad step, should be ready to pounce. He has never beaten winners, however. If Tall Texan (6) moves forward in his second start for Richard Mandella, he figures for a slice. He looks like 7 furlongs should be to his liking, and will get some pace to close into.



Race 4



Thankfully, there are only 6 now scheduled to start this midlevel sprint, because I’m having trouble piecing the few pieces of the puzzle that there are, together. Or put more confidently, there are no real standouts here. Let’s start with the M/L favorite, Seven Secrets (4). He’s never tried 6 furlongs, nor has he won on the AW. Connects are decent, but he is winless on this circuit, including four tries at this level or lower. Very iffy. Kamsack (2) will have to move forward in his second try after a 3 ½ year layoff. He takes a slight class drop, and gets a big jock switch to Talamo, so apparently his connections are expecting him to do just that. Both Wheaton Hall (7), who might find things a little easier up front today, and Make Mine Vodka (6), who had a troubled trip, exit the same race as Kamsack. Either could win this, and add to my confusion here.

SRK
03-16-2008, 04:17 PM
Race 5



Far be it from me to question Bobby Frankel, but he is the only reason I can see why Be Glorious (6) is the 5/2 morning line favorite here. Frankel is good, you could even say great, but he still loses with almost 80% of his turf starters. Favorites lose 70% of these maiden turf routes. No super horses in here, but this vulnerable favorite is fairly easy to throw stones at, starting with the fact that she ran second in the slowest turf mile of the meet in her last. A couple of the long shots look like they will fight for the lead, so Rareville (4) might be the closer with a good chance to mow them all down late. She’ll find the company here a lot softer than her last turf effort. No Golden Doc A’s or Arieges. Shy Baby (10) went very wide in her last, and was flattered by a quick early and slow late pace in her last. She’ll be hung out wide again today. Shake It Off (3) and Violet Sky (2) also exit the same February 13th heat as Shy Baby, they too had issues to deal with, and any of the three have a right to do better today.

SRK
03-16-2008, 04:59 PM
Race 6



A full field of non-winners of two lifetime line up for what should be a chaotic, pace meltdown of a finish. Most of these have had several bites of the apple, so I am looking closest at those with the least amount of blemishes on their record, and who at the same time have shown they can pass horses late. That thought process landed me on, of all horses, the M/L favorite Diamond Dave (9). He’s no lock, but Mullins, Michael Baze, blinks on, and a logical drop in class all point towards a winning effort. Gunslick (5) just missed at this level, in his last. He drew a good post, and should be able to kick it in late. This is the type of race that produces good exotic payoffs. The reason being, any number of horses can complete the exacta, trifecta and superfecta. Catch That Thief (2) should also be passing tired horses late. Warren’s Scooter (3) should be well placed throughout, and at a price. Finally, Devil Down (4) and Scottish Diamond (10) both deserve a mention underneath in this intriguing wagering opportunity.

SRK
03-16-2008, 05:49 PM
Race 7



The name of this game is “beat the favorite,” and I’m going to try to do just that again here. Renegade Ruby (12) has never routed, never raced on grass, has already failed at this level, and will be breaking from the unforgiving outside in this mile allowance test. While not a complete toss out, she will have to be much the best to get home first. Shebang (3) is a late running sprinter, who bobbled at the start of her comeback appearance last month going down the hill. She has worked well since and looks ready to fire a big shot. Quite A Stormkat (8) tried Starter Handicap types in her last, and gave them all they could handle, finishing a good looking second. That race was taken off the turf, and if it didn’t take too much out of her, she could have a say in the outcome of this, at a price. Let’s also give the Irish import Marzelline (10) a chance to hit the board in her stateside debut.

SRK
03-16-2008, 06:01 PM
SCRATCH #3 Warren's Scooter in the 6th.

SRK
03-16-2008, 06:34 PM
Race 8



A full field of 14 maidens are slated to go six furlongs, and I give at least half of them a legitimate shot to win this wide open race.

Forest Echoes (3) hasn’t done much wrong in his four lifetime starts, he just ran into better horses. He gets a rider switch to David Flores and today just might be the day, and at fair odds. No Lien Here (8) tries Joe Talamo for the recently quiet Doug O’Neill. He is another that will go postward at a decent price, and is not without a shot. Lotacat (1). the morning line favorite, will have to send from the rail, and neither has been the winning formula lately. Can’t put a line thru his name, either. Kinsale King (9) has the right to move forward in his second start. Devil Maker (7) showed speed and faded in his debut in a race taken off the downhill turf course. Could surprise for a slice.

SRK
03-16-2008, 07:26 PM
Race 9



A group of talented and evenly matched Calbreds meet in today’s feature, the $100k Crystal Water Handicap. Who ever thought we’d be paying so much to drink water? Both Cheroot (6) and Lucky J. H. (10) will be fighting for the lead, and I expect both to hang around for a long time. Old-timer Cheroot signaled that he’s still got it, with a game score wining the Daytona going down the hill here last month. He’s never failed to hit the board at this distance. Lucky J.H. is also going to be prominent throughout, but will be trying Santa Anita and a mile for the first time. Should the speed tire, then first time turfer Celtic Dreamin (2) could prove to be “class on the grass.” Add Heat (7) shortens up, and will also be picking up the pieces late. Mr. Wolverine (5) is a logical in the money type, but I think he's a little light class-wise to back on top.

SRK
03-16-2008, 08:06 PM
Race 10



Perfect Cast (6) appears to be slowly but steadily getting better, and her bullet work a week ago only confirms that. She’s faded in the stretch every time so far, however, and I won’t back her at the 8/5 odds she was offered at last time. I was present when the sire of Golden Volponi (8) pulled off one the biggest and most infamous upsets in Breeder’s Cup history. While a victory here, wouldn’t exactly be remembered in the same terms, a placing on the board would spice up your “get out” exotics. Emily Tiger (10) flashed speed before fading in her last, and shows a solid work since, often two keys to success at this class level. Stormy Taters (4) deserves one more chance. I don’t often box my bets, but this looks to be one of those times.