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View Full Version : warpass runs out huge show prices!


kyle2227
03-15-2008, 05:58 PM
Wwarpass is out i hope you all had $10 to show on every horse! Show prices pending due to an objection.

Marshall Bennett
03-15-2008, 06:05 PM
Almost looked as if he bled . :mad:

juanepstein
03-15-2008, 06:06 PM
pretty funny that lears princess was jumped too and she placed out of the money.

ny0707ny
03-15-2008, 06:08 PM
Im in total shock here. I didn't see the race but heard it only. I say lets all wait and see if he checks out ok.

Usually when a horse like this does not win, something goes wrong during the race.

I just seen the same thing with Daaher last month. I want to see once they check him out if anything is wrong.

A horse like that can't lose to these horses in this race.

kyle2227
03-15-2008, 06:10 PM
Well he got pinched a bit at the start.

ny0707ny
03-15-2008, 06:11 PM
Yeah I heard that at the start I don't think that would cost him the race though.

Tom
03-15-2008, 06:22 PM
Almost looked as if he bled . :mad:

Well, somebody did! :D
Probably hasn't stopped yet.

ny0707ny
03-15-2008, 06:27 PM
He came in dead last. Just looking at the results. I use a dial-up modem so I am slower here. A total shock. Something went wrong I am sure we will find out this week.

Norm
03-15-2008, 06:41 PM
This is from the chart :

"War Pass was restless at he gate then was bumped at the break by Make Me Zack and Gentleman James then shortly thereafter by Gentleman James, was hustled along to hold a striking position while five wide then stopped and was not pressed in the stretch."

Norm
03-15-2008, 07:19 PM
Another news tid-bit just in from AP :

Owner Robert LaPenta was disappointed, and said the colt had a fever earlier in the week. “He wasn’t himself today,” LaPenta said. “We wanted to come out of the gate and take the lead around the first turn. … War Pass had some fever this week and we thought he’d be OK. But obviously it wasn’t his day.”

PaceAdvantage
03-15-2008, 07:24 PM
Wow. Did anyone report he had a fever earlier this week?

Did the folks that bet 500,000 to show on the horse know he had a fever earlier this week?

Are you kidding me? The NFL has to report EVERY SINGLE INJURY or ILLNESS, even though Nevada is the ONLY place you can legally bet NFL football, but thoroughbred horse racing bettors are left in the dark like this?

Simply outrageous. Something needs to be done....this is bullshit.

bigmack
03-15-2008, 07:42 PM
I trust the folk that plunked down adult dollars would feel a tad sheepish about coming forward but, I agree, we can't have an assurance that those making decisions to major affairs are sending out talent that is at least healthy?

What a joke on $500K & an even bigger gag on all the lettuce in the W/P pools.

CryingForTheHorses
03-15-2008, 07:50 PM
Wow. Did anyone report he had a fever earlier this week?

Did the folks that bet 500,000 to show on the horse know he had a fever earlier this week?

Are you kidding me? The NFL has to report EVERY SINGLE INJURY or ILLNESS, even though Nevada is the ONLY place you can legally bet NFL football, but thoroughbred horse racing bettors are left in the dark like this?

Simply outrageous. Something needs to be done....this is bullshit.

Geeze a fever!!..Lots of other trainers would have not run the horse because of that..Pure greed on the connection end and not a care about the horse or the people who came to see him or wager on him.Its sad when people have so much money they lose sight of the real world.Zito has a ton of horses,What does he care if he ruins another.Very Very sad!!!!

ny0707ny
03-15-2008, 08:07 PM
That is unreal. I knew something had to be wrong with him. Injury or sickness.

The real War Pass will be back soon enough guys.

DrunkenHorseplayer
03-15-2008, 08:08 PM
Maybe the "fever" is just an excuse from the connections. I think it had more to do with the fact that not only did he get headed for the first time but he was headed from both sides and had to run between horses and in tight for a bit.

Blind Pursuit
03-15-2008, 08:23 PM
Maybe the "fever" is just an excuse from the connections.

That's the first thing I thought, too. It's a pretty common excuse after all. PA, your point is well taken, but in this case I'm pretty sure even the horse didn't know about this fever he allegedly had until the owner told him.

Norm
03-15-2008, 08:51 PM
Maybe the "fever" is just an excuse from the connections. I think it had more to do with the fact that not only did he get headed for the first time but he was headed from both sides and had to run between horses and in tight for a bit.
An interesting thought ... in the Associated Press article, it is owner LaPenta not trainer Zito who reported the fever. Zito told the press he didn't know what went wrong. My guess would be that it was a matter of who was most embarassed. If Zito sent a sick horse to post, he would never admit it. On the otherhand, LaPenta is the center of attention as the owner of the Derby favorite that just came in last in a race he should have won easily. So who was telling the press the most accurate version ? Something was wrong though and the jockey knew it and did not press the horse in the stretch.

Old Yeller
03-15-2008, 09:11 PM
That race was a Zito favor to some of his NY. buds. It wasn't even in the plan 3 weeks ago. Let the GAME begin !

46zilzal
03-15-2008, 09:27 PM
Unopposed front runners often quick when outrun early. Wondered about this one.

ny0707ny
03-15-2008, 09:32 PM
I just saw the replay since I didn't get the race live. This horse was not 100%. He had no energy and looked like he was struggling through the race. If he was sick he had his energy really low here.

Bluegrass Cat had a race before Derby where he ran a low speed figure and did terrible.

Go back to April 16th 2006. Bluegrass Cat ran an 81 speed figure before the Derby after running a 99 the race before. I drew a line through that race because he was sick. He ran in the Derby and came in 2nd to Barbaro.

It has nothing to do with the pace of the race. You can tell how the horse is running that it was not the same horse.

jonnielu
03-15-2008, 09:50 PM
That is unreal. I knew something had to be wrong with him. Injury or sickness.

The real War Pass will be back soon enough guys.

Maybe someone that was there can tell us if the any of the obvious signs were seen during warmups. How about it Dan? Did a champion go in the gate after a proper warmup?

jdl

OTM Al
03-15-2008, 09:52 PM
That would be really a black mark on the connections. Hopefully he just had a cold/minor respiratory infection ala Afleet Alex in the Rebel and comes back just as strong

Murph
03-15-2008, 09:59 PM
The NTRA shouldn't need horseplayers to direct them to these types of problems. I'm not going to need to wait to see the Wood before I decide where my Derby bet will go. I may even advise (as much as I would hate to do that) my associates NOT to bet as well.

This race is another GIANT red flag for me. Risk on this thing is going to be too high to give it serious consideration. We have enjoyed some really nice KY Derbys over the past 12 years or so. Maybe this kind of year comes along from time to time but I don't ever remember this much trouble for events leading up to the race.

cj's dad
03-15-2008, 10:15 PM
Wow. Did anyone report he had a fever earlier this week?

Did the folks that bet 500,000 to show on the horse know he had a fever earlier this week?

Are you kidding me? The NFL has to report EVERY SINGLE INJURY or ILLNESS, even though Nevada is the ONLY place you can legally bet NFL football, but thoroughbred horse racing bettors are left in the dark like this?

Simply outrageous. Something needs to be done....this is bullshit.

A 1/9 shot is not in the exacta or tri and the ex pays $60+ and the tri $400+ and there is no suspicion that this is a g--Da-m set up???

Looks like a revisit to the St Valentines day massacre @ Bowie many years ago.
I am taking a few weeks off to think about this game.

Speed Figure
03-15-2008, 10:29 PM
Roger Stein said something about that on his show at the end. He said they were trying to keep something a secret. That something was wrong with the horse. He said if your EVER GOING TO BET AGAINST THE BIG FAVORITE, TODAY IS THE DAY!!

rokitman
03-15-2008, 10:31 PM
I think the connections are distraught, disoriented and just grasping at straws at what happened, in regards to that minor fever earlier in the week. This needs to be looked into as possible fixed race. Sponging would be too obvious but every possible way to hurt a horses performance should be looked at here.

ryesteve
03-15-2008, 10:40 PM
A 1/9 shot is not in the exacta or tri and the ex pays $60+ and the tri $400+ and there is no suspicion that this is a g--Da-m set up???
If I'm going to stiff a horse to cash some tickets, doing it to the Derby favorite in a big prep probably wouldn't be the smartest spot to pull such a scam...

bobphilo
03-15-2008, 10:47 PM
Geeze a fever!!..Lots of other trainers would have not run the horse because of that..Pure greed on the connection end and not a care about the horse or the people who came to see him or wager on him.Its sad when people have so much money they lose sight of the real world.Zito has a ton of horses,What does he care if he ruins another.Very Very sad!!!!

This isn't the first time that Zito has run sick horses that should have been scratched just to please an ambitious owner. Remember Noble Causeway at Saratoga?

Bob

cj's dad
03-15-2008, 10:47 PM
If I'm going to stiff a horse to cash some tickets, doing it to the Derby favorite in a big prep probably wouldn't be the smartest spot to pull such a scam...

You are not the one stiffing a horse. There was obviously something funny going on today. The #1 and #4 blocked this guy right out of the gate and then he was forced wide. The prices are the giveaway. How the he-l does the exacta pay $64- When you can explain that, I'm listening.

jonnielu
03-15-2008, 10:52 PM
The NTRA shouldn't need horseplayers to direct them to these types of problems. I'm not going to need to wait to see the Wood before I decide where my Derby bet will go. I may even advise (as much as I would hate to do that) my associates NOT to bet as well.

This race is another GIANT red flag for me. Risk on this thing is going to be too high to give it serious consideration. We have enjoyed some really nice KY Derbys over the past 12 years or so. Maybe this kind of year comes along from time to time but I don't ever remember this much trouble for events leading up to the race.

Do you really expect to have a clear cut Derby favorite by mid-March? Would you have a clear cut Derby favorite if War Pass had lead the way with Big Truck closing to within a neck? We didn't have any idea what to expect from War Pass at two turns, but big truck did figure to be second best. Is it really so shocking to find that after all the calculating is done, it is still a horse race?

The losers here lost because they had no idea of what kind of risk they were taking. I'm amazed that anyone that has bet on a horse race before would bet on this one with all the unanswered questions that there were on War Pass going in. Another go fast horse comes up empty at the head of the stretch.... imagine that.

The Derby winner is still out there... look to those that can pour it out evenly over distance... those are the Champions.

jdl

Donnie
03-15-2008, 10:53 PM
I'm with Blind Pursuit.
Answer this:
1. Why do you bring the top 2 yr old from last year back in a 1 turn allowance race?
2. Why do you hook a race at a "smaller" track, instead of going for more money down the street?

....cause maybe you don't have the horse that the Press thinks you have....?? His fastest race was on an off track.....how many other horses throw their fastest race on a sloppy track? He looks good going against allowance horses. Hope they don't bump him in the Ky Derby with 20 horses in the rodeo!! :lol:

Fever?? My ass! The horse got beat. The better horse won today. Zito would know better than ANYONE if the horse had a fever and I believe he would have scratched the horse if he didn't feel he was 100% going in.

alhattab
03-15-2008, 11:38 PM
I initially thought the exacta was short, then I reconsidered and thought reasonable given the race was essentially a three horse race. As for the tri...

My view is Zito wanted to see what would happen if they tried to rate War Pass. The result was ugly. Move on. He's now established that War Pass is a confirmed front-runner. If he rebounds, crushes the Wood and goes to the Derby, what do the other trainers do? Hard to enter rabbits in the Derby and you don't want to be sacrificial lamb right?

I'm not suggesting I have a clue into Zito's motives. All I am saying is that when something like this happens there may be more to it than meets the eye. Like when Ferraro said she thought Obama is where he is because he is black. Do you really think she's that dumb to be so blatant without guidance from some operative?

Murph
03-15-2008, 11:54 PM
Do you really expect to have a clear cut Derby favorite by mid-March? Would you have a clear cut Derby favorite if War Pass had lead the way with Big Truck closing to within a neck? We didn't have any idea what to expect from War Pass at two turns, but big truck did figure to be second best. Is it really so shocking to find that after all the calculating is done, it is still a horse race?

The losers here lost because they had no idea of what kind of risk they were taking. I'm amazed that anyone that has bet on a horse race before would bet on this one with all the unanswered questions that there were on War Pass going in. Another go fast horse comes up empty at the head of the stretch.... imagine that.

The Derby winner is still out there... look to those that can pour it out evenly over distance... those are the Champions.

jdlI expect to have a good handle on the real contenders for the Derby by mid-March. Pyro and Big Truck aren't cutting it.

DrunkenHorseplayer
03-16-2008, 12:23 AM
A 1/9 shot is not in the exacta or tri and the ex pays $60+ and the tri $400+ and there is no suspicion that this is a g--Da-m set up???

Looks like a revisit to the St Valentines day massacre @ Bowie many years ago.
I am taking a few weeks off to think about this game.

Keep in mind that it WAS the 2nd, 3rd and 4th choices (in a 7 horse field) in that order. Obviously, a lot of sharps (some no doubt using computer programs that didn't exist back in the Bowie days) saw the value in tossing the 1/20 chalk and hammered it.

PaceAdvantage
03-16-2008, 12:44 AM
Maybe the "fever" is just an excuse from the connections. I think it had more to do with the fact that not only did he get headed for the first time but he was headed from both sides and had to run between horses and in tight for a bit.I immediately thought that this might be the case as well, but if that's true, it simply serves as another great example of just how LITTLE THEY think about us bettors, the guys who fuel this game.

If the fever IS true, then it's unconscionable that such a thing remains hidden from the wagering public. People would have every RIGHT to RUN AWAY from this game given such a fact. Again, compare it to the NFL, which basically MUST disclose every little illness and injury way before game time....and they only allow LEGAL betting in Nevada!!! LOL

If the fever is simply a manufactured excuse, then it shows how much contempt owners have for the bettors, that they wouldn't think twice of thumbing their noses at the guys who lay out 500,000 in the show pool by claiming such a thing, even though it may not be 100% true.

Unreal on every level.

This should serve as a wakeup call to all bettors out there....how much shit are we going to take?

cj
03-16-2008, 02:34 AM
I'm with Blind Pursuit.
Answer this:
1. Why do you bring the top 2 yr old from last year back in a 1 turn allowance race?
2. Why do you hook a race at a "smaller" track, instead of going for more money down the street?

....cause maybe you don't have the horse that the Press thinks you have....?? His fastest race was on an off track.....how many other horses throw their fastest race on a sloppy track? He looks good going against allowance horses. Hope they don't bump him in the Ky Derby with 20 horses in the rodeo!! :lol:

Fever?? My ass! The horse got beat. The better horse won today. Zito would know better than ANYONE if the horse had a fever and I believe he would have scratched the horse if he didn't feel he was 100% going in.

I can answer the two questions you have. First, why not a one turn allowance race? I wouldn't throw the horse in too deep off the bench. I suspect Zito would rather the field came up tougher, but nothing hurt.

For the second, the reason is because Gulfstream basically completely jacked up the 3yo prep season in Florida. You either go to Tampa, or you wait of the 1 1/8 Florida Derby, which because of timing isn't even a prep for the Wood or Blue Grass any longer.

As for the fever, it is probably a load of crap. As PA said, just more total disdain for the bettors, even if some of them are the idiots dumb enough to try to make 5% in the show pool.

Norm
03-16-2008, 02:44 AM
Here is a link to the video replay :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSHZBS7qU1E (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSHZBS7qU1E)

A curious bit of running. Pinched back at the start, he recovers fairly well and by the midpoint of the clubhouse turn he is 4th and in good position. Straightened out on the backstretch he advances to 3rd within 1 ˝ lengths of the lead, looking good. At the point where they measure the half-mile time, he begins to falter, falling back to 4th and barely holding that position. Mid-way on the far turn he makes a mini-rally as the leaders tire and he is ever-so-briefly a length or so off the lead. At that point Big Truck sweeps by the three of them and you begin to realize he is not going all that fast, he had been struggling to pass the tiring leaders. In the few yards between the quarter pole and the straightaway, he has drifted back to last.

It looked like he ran a good half-mile then something happened. He found a small burst of energy on the far turn but that exhausted him and he was done in. It was not the way a healthy horse runs. We've seen him run before, there was something wrong here.

DeanT
03-16-2008, 03:12 AM
We've seen him run before, there was something wrong here.
I agree. Something was off with that horse today. It is unfair to judge him off that performance, imo. He's too good a horse.

DeanT
03-16-2008, 03:18 AM
Wow. Did anyone report he had a fever earlier this week?

Did the folks that bet 500,000 to show on the horse know he had a fever earlier this week?

Are you kidding me? The NFL has to report EVERY SINGLE INJURY or ILLNESS, even though Nevada is the ONLY place you can legally bet NFL football, but thoroughbred horse racing bettors are left in the dark like this?

Simply outrageous. Something needs to be done....this is bullshit.

This happens all too often. The customers get the "we are a nuisance" to the participants garbage whenever we bring it up. I think as a condition of entry, the trainer must give a report on the horse - one phrase would do. "Scoped sick last time and he seems ok this time, altho he might not be 100%"; "All systems go, he is sharp", "Off for 40 days to relieve some fill in the leg, seems sound". "Spiked a temperature Monday, but seems ok".

It aint rocket science. The stock market would not have investors if they did not report news. Racing should too.

JustRalph
03-16-2008, 03:26 AM
Dean is right. You could come up with abreviations that would suit most situations..........hell.......how hard could that be to include in the form?

Speed Figure
03-16-2008, 04:24 AM
War Pass looked just like War Emblem today, NO EASY LEAD NO WIN. He had been in front at every call of his 5 wins.

cj
03-16-2008, 04:30 AM
War Emblem won the Preakness without an easy lead.

DanG
03-16-2008, 06:12 AM
Maybe someone that was there can tell us if the any of the obvious signs were seen during warmups. How about it Dan? Did a champion go in the gate after a proper warmup?

jdl
I wasn’t there Jonnielu, I’ve made the critical homeowner mistake of taking on a renovation…that is now consuming my life! :eek:

From the live video feed my brother commented he looked “listless” in the paddock. I can’t honestly say I profited from it, because I didn’t have the confidence Donnie, PA and others had in beating him.

The one thing we all knew today was the thoroughbred excuse list was being Googled and the 1st hit must have been “fever”. As was said in this thread…if true…SHAME on the connections for running and it not being reported.

Red boarding…

Certainly more than a few gaps in training for a champion 2yo. Missed time right out of the gate this year changing their strategy. Davidowitz has a quote that I’ll try from memory that seems to always ring true this time of year. “The Derby winner usually doesn’t have a straw in its path health wise. While everything doesn’t have to go to the exact minute, any significant training interruption usually spells issues.”

Either way…bumped, fever etc…This was a disturbing performance. He was essentially eased and that’s never a good sign for a serious 3yo.

john del riccio
03-16-2008, 07:27 AM
I wasn’t there Jonnielu, I’ve made the critical homeowner mistake of taking on a renovation…that is now consuming my life! :eek:

From the live video feed my brother commented he looked “listless” in the paddock. I can’t honestly say I profited from it, because I didn’t have the confidence Donnie, PA and others had in beating him.

The one thing we all knew today was the thoroughbred excuse list was being Googled and the 1st hit must have been “fever”. As was said in this thread…if true…SHAME on the connections for running and it not being reported.

Red boarding…

Certainly more than a few gaps in training for a champion 2yo. Missed time right out of the gate this year changing their strategy. Davidowitz has a quote that I’ll try from memory that seems to always ring true this time of year. “The Derby winner usually doesn’t have a straw in its path health wise. While everything doesn’t have to go to the exact minute, any significant training interruption usually spells issues.”

Either way…bumped, fever etc…This was a disturbing performance. He was essentially eased and that’s never a good sign for a serious 3yo.

Dan,

If the whole "fever" thing is true and Zito sent him out there anyway, he would have to be the biggest moron on the planet. As for his last race, the "paid workout". It was far from his best (the slop race) but it was also significantly (pacewise) infererior to his Champagne win and also not as good
finishing up. I'm not redboarding because I didn't bet the race. I was simply viewing this race with a critical eye and wanted to see if they tried to rate him or if he could overcome a little adversity while eating some dirt. I got what I asked for right at the start and for whatever reason, he wasn't up to the challenge on this day.

The flip-side to WAR PASS yeterday was GEORGIE BOY, I also didn't bet the SA feature but viewed it again with a critical eye and I absolutely loved watching this horse run. He was very, very professional. I have the utmost respect for Kathy Walsh as I beleive she is an old school horse-woman that can teach alot of the guys out there a thing or two about training a young horse. He broke alright, used a little speed to get position, listened to Baze's command (a substitiute rider no less), ate dirt from the 3/4 poler to the 1/4 pole, banged his way to a clear run once they straightened out, and accelerated nicelly to get the victory. He didn't switch leads til after the wire which I am certain Walsh will be working on fixing before the SA Derby.
(I just realize I sounded like THeFatMan......)

My one request would be that she run this guy ON DIRT before the Derby because it ain't the same gig as the cushioned track.

John

Donnie
03-16-2008, 07:28 AM
Dan-

Funny thing. Your brother and I must have the same eye. I took a 1/2 hour break from hanging doors in our remodel yesterday to be sure I caught the entire pre-race video. I did not see a "world-beater" champ in the saddling area. He was not the "Curlin" I witnessed going thru Preps last year. This was the first race of his I caught and I thought to myself he didn't look anything special. I didn't see the "fire". Even on video you should spot something that catches your eye.

Last race fin/purse values in Post Pos order.....

1. 4 $20K
2. 6 $20K
3. 1 $60K (this was the LOWEST purse WP ran for in his LIFE!! His maiden race paid more!!?? You find a race for less money than his maiden?? And this is a return to greatness?? Ignore the fact it drew a 5 horse field.)
4. 1 $41K
5. 4 $200K
6. 2 $200K (lost by 1/2 ...close enough to call a win?)
7. 2 $200K (lost by a neck...close enough to call a win?)

So you have the 2 yr old champ coming back to a winner's share of about $36K....you mean to tell me there are no lower level Stakes anywhere around they could have shot for? They weren't looking for a prep race in it's truest sense of the word "prep". They were looking for a dodge....and they found it. At this point your horse had better get in deep and be getting roughed up a bit. Beating 5,6, and 8 horse fields with a front runner is not exactly prepping the horse for the Kentucky Calvary Charge!

Using the above as a starting point, why wouldn't you look elsewhere for a GREAT betting opportunity???

I do love the conspiracy theorists that jumped out immediately. (the fever thing is kind of a bother if he had one and they ran him. I agree the public should know this.) 6 horse race, the 2nd and 3rd choices win, pays $65, and people are screaming FOUL!! I was tickled to get that much! Yes I had the winner, the exacta and the tri. And this is no redboard (for those who love to scream that word!). I posted over on HTR, 5 minutes before the race went off, exactly how I saw the race set up. It unfolded like a well scripted movie. And KM had posted early in the day:

If there is one chink in the armor for War Pass maybe it is = Nick Zito. I like Nick, he is a humble and thoughtful man but he has burned a lot of money with heavy favorites in major Stakes in the last few years. That's a fact. Remember the Ky Derby of 2005? Our trainer stats show him 10 for 76 (13%) with Stakes and ROI -45% last 365days. But remember that War Pass has two of those wins, so tailor those stats even further downward. Most of the losers were low odds and favs.

BIG49010
03-16-2008, 07:39 AM
When was the last time there has been a million dollar show pool? Somebody also lost their ass on a big show bet on Lear's Princess? Tough day for the jumpers!

cj
03-16-2008, 08:02 AM
I actually hope they don't run Georgie Boy on dirt before the Derby. I'd rather he win the SA Derby again and go off at 4 to 1 when I throw him out. I wouldn't bet a turf closer moving to the dirt, and I'm sure not betting a synthetic horse closer moving to the dirt either.

If he runs on dirt, he'll prove to be the genuine article and be a short price or he will be exposed as a synthetic horse and everyone will know. There is no value either way.

john del riccio
03-16-2008, 08:11 AM
I actually hope they don't run Georgie Boy on dirt before the Derby. I'd rather he win the SA Derby again and go off at 4 to 1 when I throw him out. I wouldn't bet a turf closer moving to the dirt, and I'm sure not betting a synthetic horse closer moving to the dirt either.

If he runs on dirt, he'll prove to be the genuine article and be a short price or he will be exposed as a synthetic horse and everyone will know. There is no value either way.

Obviously I want him to run on dirt to not be forced to "guess" whether he'll handle it which is all anyone can do until they prove it. I am with you in that I won't be backing any fake stuff phenoms on derby day. Aside from cashing a bet, it would be good to see run on dirt and show he could handle it well. That would be good for everyone and the way this years Derby appears to be setting up, the favorite may be 6-1.....

John

cj
03-16-2008, 08:21 AM
I would like to think I'm making an extremely educated guess based on everything I have learned about dirt and synthetic tracks. :)

john del riccio
03-16-2008, 08:37 AM
Undertstood CJ, but ther are always exceptions and I guess on on eof racings biggest days, I'd like only the extra 1/8 mile to be the primary question, not whther we are running on springs, rubber, fiberglass or whatever else the surface doctors come up with.


With all that said GEORGIE BOY showed a new dimension to me yetserday & I truly hope he handles dirt because he ran very well.

Good Luck,
John

Pace Cap'n
03-16-2008, 08:43 AM
Just curious--maybe Mcschell can help...

Your horse has a temperature on Mon. or Tue., it clears up by Thur. or Fri.--would it be OK to run him on Sat.? Assuming nothing serious, of course.

ryesteve
03-16-2008, 09:04 AM
You are not the one stiffing a horse. There was obviously something funny going on today. The #1 and #4 blocked this guy right out of the gate and then he was forced wide. The prices are the giveaway. How the he-l does the exacta pay $64- When you can explain that, I'm listening.
They were the 2nd and 3rd choice in a relatively short field.

And now you're suggesting a pretty far-reaching conspiracy. That's even less credible than one person stiffing one horse.

Pace Cap'n
03-16-2008, 09:11 AM
Just noticed, except for WP, the field ran in the exact order of their odds.

jonnielu
03-16-2008, 09:23 AM
I expect to have a good handle on the real contenders for the Derby by mid-March. Pyro and Big Truck aren't cutting it.

Hey Murph,

I realize that most of my posts are taken as being a bit smart-assed, but I'm just trying to promote some thought when I say, "why not?"

The Derby trail offers tremendous potential for learning many things that are very real when it comes to horse race analysis, because every year it teaches that you must lift your eyes from the racing form to consider some things that just aren't there.

Last year, the crop could be cut to 4 contenders off of PP's in February, and 3 of them were in the gate at CD on Derby Day. That race always cuts the triple crown contenders down to one, and maybe a couple of contenders for the next two races.

This year, the February list was 23 horses long, I don't know if that makes it a bad crop, or a very competitive crop because there are still 5 - 6 on it. And I suggest that we thank goodness as bettors that we could see some limitations on War Pass before Derby day. Now, he will have to convincingly show in the Wood that he can get the 1-1/4, and if he can not come up with a Secretariat style win there, we can take him off the list and not lose a dime on him in May.

So, today as bettors... we are sitting pretty because the most qualified on class/speed has to show us double what we had seen up to Friday last, while we still have several opportunities to measure the other half dozen on their ability match for the distinct requirements of the Kentucky Derby.

Let us pray that the great multitude will continue to lock in on "good form only" in mid-March, while we further examine these others in the interest of finding that "good Belmont horse" by the end of April that will likely arrive on Derby day at 6-1.

And remember, if we do it well, we get to say "he's been on my list since February".

jdl

jonnielu
03-16-2008, 09:32 AM
I actually hope they don't run Georgie Boy on dirt before the Derby. I'd rather he win the SA Derby again and go off at 4 to 1 when I throw him out. I wouldn't bet a turf closer moving to the dirt, and I'm sure not betting a synthetic horse closer moving to the dirt either.

If he runs on dirt, he'll prove to be the genuine article and be a short price or he will be exposed as a synthetic horse and everyone will know. There is no value either way.

Synthetic is supposed to be a more tiring surface, same with turf. With that in mind, it would seem that a synthetic closer would be benefited by dirt, wouldn't it?

jdl

cj
03-16-2008, 09:43 AM
Synthetic is supposed to be a more tiring surface, same with turf. With that in mind, it would seem that a synthetic closer would be benefited by dirt, wouldn't it?

jdl

I think you answered your own question. Turf closers certainly aren't benefited by dirt, and neither are synthetic closers in my opinion.

jonnielu
03-16-2008, 09:51 AM
I think you answered your own question. Turf closers certainly aren't benefited by dirt, and neither are synthetic closers in my opinion.

Are you gonna run for office in the future? Let me try it this way:

If synthetic is a more tiring surface, wouldn't a synthetic closer be supposed as a stronger late runner against a dirt runner on dirt? Or, why does the turf closer not perform well on dirt?

jdl

classhandicapper
03-16-2008, 09:58 AM
Until we know exactly what, if anything, was wrong with him going into the race, whether he got hurt at the start, or whether he was exposed by a rougher trip than he's used to, it's hard to speculate much.

Personally, I didn't like the campaign that Zito mapped out for him. I'm a very big believer in "intangibles". This horse has been winning loose on the lead in every start. The Derby is typically a 20 horse field, roughly run, and contains at least a couple of quality speeds. I think to prepare a horse properly for that kind of race, it needs some seasoning and experience with rough conditions. You don't want your horse racing inside or between horses for the first time, to get bumped for the first time, to be forced to race behind horses for the first time etc... in the Derby. So I thought picking very easy spots (especially the first one) was not helping this horse much at all. If this was a very seasoned horse, I might feel differently. Perhaps the choice of races was signaling that something was amiss.

To me, this was a big disappointent. I intended on making a huge bet against him in the Derby. Not only was I concerned about his lack of seasoning, he also looked more like a superior speedy miler to me than the next Seattle Slew. However, I was also hoping he would prove me wrong and prove to be a special horse.

It doesn't look like either will happen now.

Donnie
03-16-2008, 10:06 AM
Class-
you put it much more directly than I did.

I do need to ask one question though, because this has me wondering.....

To me, this was a big disappointent. I intended on making a huge bet against him in the Derby. Not only was I concerned about his lack of seasoning, he also looked more like a superior speedy miler to me than the next Seattle Slew. However, I was also hoping he would prove me wrong and prove to be a special horse.

I wonder how many other horseplayers feel this way. To me, this inner struggle will only help defeat your confirmations.

classhandicapper
03-16-2008, 10:16 AM
I do need to ask one question though, because this has me wondering.....



I wonder how many other horseplayers feel this way. To me, this inner struggle will only help defeat your confirmations.


Donnie,

I am much more of a fan of the sport than a gambler looking to profit. I don't bet very large sums or lots of races. It would add stress to my life. I don't need that anymore. That's why I quit my lucrative job to do something else. ;)

I love handicapping, enjoy looking at my books at the end of the year and seeing a "+", and absolutely love the sport.

So for me, losing a couple of hundred dollars on the Derby would not be as significant as the pleasure of seeing another Seattle Slew. ;)

jonnielu
03-16-2008, 10:18 AM
Just noticed, except for WP, the field ran in the exact order of their odds.

Wow, that's weird, if you look at the Ability-X ratings for those with some experience at longer distances, they were close to that order too. Very strange too is that the low early speed horses keep winning at longer distances. Somebody throw me an Andy Beyer book, so I can figure out what is supposed to be happening instead.

12th - Tampa
Tampa Bay Derby - 8.5f
# POST ErlSpd / ML
64 4 100 20
99 1 95 20
50 3 92 0.5
121 2 87 20
81 6 87 4.5
86 5 87 12
96 7 86 5


6 - 81 6 87 4.5

7 - 96 7 86 5

5 - 86 5 87 12

4 - 64 4 100 20

1 - 99 1 95 20

2 - 121 2 87 20

3 - 50 3 92 0.5

cj's dad
03-16-2008, 10:55 AM
They were the 2nd and 3rd choice in a relatively short field.

And now you're suggesting a pretty far-reaching conspiracy. That's even less credible than one person stiffing one horse.

We could argue on and on. I,simply put, believe there was somethintg not quite kosher in this race.

cj
03-16-2008, 11:00 AM
Are you gonna run for office in the future? Let me try it this way:

If synthetic is a more tiring surface, wouldn't a synthetic closer be supposed as a stronger late runner against a dirt runner on dirt? Or, why does the turf closer not perform well on dirt?

jdl

I can't give you exact reasons. Turf and synthetic courses are friendly to horses that run in a more even manner. Dirt courses are not. Why? I don't know and it doesn't matter really.

On dirt, off pace types are at a disadvantage most times. On other surfaces, they have an advantage. It really is as simple as that. So, you have to be careful accepting form on one surface the same as form on another.

rrbauer
03-16-2008, 11:13 AM
Bottom line:

War Pass rhymes with Gaasss!

Grits
03-16-2008, 11:19 AM
I can't give you exact reasons. Turf and synthetic courses are friendly to horses that run in a more even manner. Dirt courses are not. Why? I don't know and it doesn't matter really.

On dirt, off pace types are at a disadvantage most times. On other surfaces, they have an advantage. It really is as simple as that. So, you have to be careful accepting form on one surface the same as form on another.

CJ, a couple of questions, please.

Are your pace figures at your website as applicable and as successful on dirt, as they are on turf/synthetic surfaces? And do you approach these surfaces, differently when creating your figures?

Thank you in advance.

jonnielu
03-16-2008, 11:29 AM
I can't give you exact reasons. Turf and synthetic courses are friendly to horses that run in a more even manner. Dirt courses are not. Why? I don't know and it doesn't matter really.

On dirt, off pace types are at a disadvantage most times. On other surfaces, they have an advantage. It really is as simple as that. So, you have to be careful accepting form on one surface the same as form on another.

A fascinating summation of an interesting subject.

jdl

Tom
03-16-2008, 11:37 AM
With all the yapping they do on TVG, did any of those bright boys mention the fever, or his appearance? I seem to remember seeng that WP was singled on many of thier pic tics. I only watched a bit just before the race, but did any of these "experts" have any insights? :rolleyes:

I know Ken Massa put up some speed bumps to WP's fan club van early in the day, and Donnie stepped on top of WP getting his bets down on the winning exacta early on as well.

BoldEye
03-16-2008, 11:49 AM
This happens all too often. The customers get the "we are a nuisance" to the participants garbage whenever we bring it up. I think as a condition of entry, the trainer must give a report on the horse - one phrase would do. "Scoped sick last time and he seems ok this time, altho he might not be 100%"; "All systems go, he is sharp", "Off for 40 days to relieve some fill in the leg, seems sound". "Spiked a temperature Monday, but seems ok".

It aint rocket science. The stock market would not have investors if they did not report news. Racing should too.

Seems if that was required, it would open the door for imaginary illnesses of all sorts (for the connections' benefit) in an attempt to manipulate today's price. Leaves the bettor in a possibly more precarious position and would result in simply more meaningless information. When I read what a given trainer or owner is quoted as saying about his horse's condition for today's race, I rarely take it to heart. They are usually glowing remarks, often to be disproven in the ensuing race. If I get off of a winner because of some connection's comment, and don't rely on my numbers and form anaysis, I'd feel sick, not the horse...

cj
03-16-2008, 11:55 AM
CJ, a couple of questions, please.

Are your pace figures at your website as applicable and as successful on dirt, as they are on turf/synthetic surfaces? And do you approach these surfaces, differently when creating your figures?

Thank you in advance.

I would say they are equally successful because I treat the surfaces (and distances) much differently.

Now, without a doubt, I get a higher win percentage on dirt than the other two. Mostly this is because dirt races just aren't as closely contested many times. But ROI wise, a slight nod goes to turf/poly.

Grits
03-16-2008, 12:17 PM
I would say they are equally successful because I treat the surfaces (and distances) much differently.

Now, without a doubt, I get a higher win percentage on dirt than the other two. Mostly this is because dirt races just aren't as closely contested many times. But ROI wise, a slight nod goes to turf/poly.

Again, thank you.

jonnielu
03-16-2008, 12:20 PM
Seems if that was required, it would open the door for imaginary illnesses of all sorts (for the connections' benefit) in an attempt to manipulate today's price. Leaves the bettor in a possibly more precarious position and would result in simply more meaningless information. When I read what a given trainer or owner is quoted as saying about his horse's condition for today's race, I rarely take it to heart. They are usually glowing remarks, often to be disproven in the ensuing race. If I get off of a winner because of some connection's comment, and don't rely on my numbers and form anaysis, I'd feel sick, not the horse...

There is also a very simple formula for the bettor to apply.

A thorough warmup = good condition and intentions today. Horses that do not feel good today express that as well as they express that they do feel good.

You will find too few exceptions to ignore these indications.

jdl

DeanT
03-16-2008, 12:47 PM
Seems if that was required, it would open the door for imaginary illnesses of all sorts (for the connections' benefit) in an attempt to manipulate today's price. Leaves the bettor in a possibly more precarious position and would result in simply more meaningless information. When I read what a given trainer or owner is quoted as saying about his horse's condition for today's race, I rarely take it to heart. They are usually glowing remarks, often to be disproven in the ensuing race. If I get off of a winner because of some connection's comment, and don't rely on my numbers and form anaysis, I'd feel sick, not the horse...

I think you would find that if trainers gave bogus info they would get called up on it. In Hong Kong you are called up and threatened to be booted out with such things. Check the trainer reports there (some signed off by a licensed vet). There they treat the bettor for what he is: The lifeblood of the business.

This can be done if taken seriously and we want to show some respect for the $15B that slugs into the pools in NA each year, imo.

Here is a snip from Hong Kong:



After the race, LEADER was examined by the Veterinary Officer. He said an endoscopic examination showed a substantial amount of blood in the horse's trachea. Before being allowed to race again, LEADER will be subjected to an official veterinary examination. DIAMOND FLYER and RAMPANT LION were sent for an official veterinary inspection. A veterinary inspection of DIAMOND FLYER and RAMPANT LION after the race did not show any significant findings. SIMPLY JOY and MULTI-WIN SPIRIT were sent for sampling.

And here is a list of horses that need explanations, i.e. "he is ready to go", before racing again: http://www.hkjc.com/english/racing/ove_record.asp

asH
03-16-2008, 01:03 PM
occoms razor - states that, if there are a number of explanations for an observed phenomena, the simplest explanation is most probable.

all to often, a speed horse is pinched back, speed horse runs out

War Pass, who has held a speed advantage in all of his previous races, was without that advantage.

Norm
03-16-2008, 01:15 PM
So for me, losing a couple of hundred dollars on the Derby would not be as significant as the pleasure of seeing another Seattle Slew. ;)
I raise a glass of my best scotch and salute you for that point of view. For me, serious betting is something that happens on any Wednesday afternoon at Aqueduct but not on the first Saturday in May at Churchill. The Kentucky Derby is about color and tradition; the long history of this great sport. Oh, I'll have a-couple-a-bucks down to have something to cheer for, but Derby Day is mostly about spectacle. I, too, was hoping for another Seattle Slew. With the world's attention focused on our sport on Derby Day, what we really need is the emergence of a super-star to attract public attention to help the sport grow. A reincarnation of Citation would do wonders for the sport. I am always hoping for a triple crown winner, our sport needs one. It's been too long for the good of the sport to not have one. Maybe there is one still out there for this year.

Speed Figure
03-16-2008, 02:24 PM
War Emblem won the Preakness without an easy lead.

Ok, he was 2nd by a head at the 1st and 2nd call. Feel better!:D

BoldEye
03-16-2008, 02:27 PM
I think you would find that if trainers gave bogus info they would get called up on it. In Hong Kong you are called up and threatened to be booted out with such things. Check the trainer reports there (some signed off by a licensed vet). There they treat the bettor for what he is: The lifeblood of the business.

This can be done if taken seriously and we want to show some respect for the $15B that slugs into the pools in NA each year, imo.

Here is a snip from Hong Kong:

I heartily agree that the bettor needs to be given better treatment, but the issue of requiring the reporting of every incidence of fever "earlier in the week" as in the War Pass example, begins to create problems imo. We have our Vet's List which is similar to the Hong Kong OVE, and both require the belief on the part of the bettor that the somewhat significant medical condition was taken care of or the horse wouldn't be running today. Caveat emptor. We've all seen "vanned off" horses come back to win their next race. If we had to dial in reports of fevers earlier in the week, real or "imagined", I think we'd be making our job a lot tougher. I don't believe a horse would make the OVE list every time his temperature spiked. It's somewhat a matter of where do you draw the line...

Pace Cap'n
03-16-2008, 02:31 PM
With all the yapping they do on TVG, did any of those bright boys mention the fever, or his appearance? I seem to remember seeng that WP was singled on many of thier pic tics. I only watched a bit just before the race, but did any of these "experts" have any insights? :rolleyes:

I know Ken Massa put up some speed bumps to WP's fan club van early in the day, and Donnie stepped on top of WP getting his bets down on the winning exacta early on as well.

No mention of a fever. They raved about his appearance--about how nicely he had filled out since the Breeders' Cup, his shiny coat, etc. And from what I saw he did look good indeed.

onefast99
03-16-2008, 02:39 PM
Geeze a fever!!..Lots of other trainers would have not run the horse because of that..Pure greed on the connection end and not a care about the horse or the people who came to see him or wager on him.Its sad when people have so much money they lose sight of the real world.Zito has a ton of horses,What does he care if he ruins another.Very Very sad!!!!
I saw him in the paddock and during the post parade he didnt look good at all I know it was hot but he just looked a bit off in the back when on the track. I cancelled all my bets with him and just watched the race, you knew he wasnt right from the post parade to the gate I guess the track vet was too busy looking elsewhere that horse should of never run. Lapenta and Zito love the limelight they deserve one another.

onefast99
03-16-2008, 02:41 PM
I heartily agree that the bettor needs to be given better treatment, but the issue of requiring the reporting of every incidence of fever "earlier in the week" as in the War Pass example, begins to create problems imo. We have our Vet's List which is similar to the Hong Kong OVE, and both require the belief on the part of the bettor that the somewhat significant medical condition was taken care of or the horse wouldn't be running today. Caveat emptor. We've all seen "vanned off" horses come back to win their next race. If we had to dial in reports of fevers earlier in the week, real or "imagined", I think we'd be making our job a lot tougher. I don't believe a horse would make the OVE list every time his temperature spiked. It's somewhat a matter of where do you draw the line...
Very rarely does a vanned off horse come back to win. Very rarely!

Grits
03-16-2008, 02:58 PM
Lapenta and Zito love the limelight they deserve one another.

Funny that you'd say this, most especially about Zito, when 99.9% of the big races he has a horse in, he will do the exact same thing he did yesterday--and that is--move off alone by himself--away from the owner, the fans, and anyone else that would hinder his watching of his horse's run.

LaPenta spoke with the press, before the race and after the race. Nick Zito did not speak with press after the race, he was on his way to attend to his horse.

I think your shot is cheap.

asH
03-16-2008, 03:19 PM
just speculating...but not to far off the trail

I would ask Zito if his race intentions were to rate War Pass from the pack. C. Velasquez didnt appear to want the front until the stretch. Consider the Allowance race ...what was War Pass supposed to gain from that race?? The fever story is a good cover since War Pass didnt run well under new race tactics.

Pell Mell
03-16-2008, 03:36 PM
Kind of reminds me of what happened to Hard Spun when they tried to lay him off the pace. Why lay behind the speed when you are the speed?:bang:

Pace Cap'n
03-16-2008, 03:44 PM
I saw him in the paddock and during the post parade he didnt look good at all I know it was hot but he just looked a bit off in the back when on the track. I cancelled all my bets with him and just watched the race, you knew he wasnt right from the post parade to the gate I guess the track vet was too busy looking elsewhere that horse should of never run. Lapenta and Zito love the limelight they deserve one another.

Did you see him in person?

The reason I ask is this snip from a post in another thread.

I can personally tell you from someone who looks at horses physically each race, I was in the paddock in Tampa and War Pass looked sensational.

ny0707ny
03-16-2008, 04:04 PM
I wish I could have seen him before the race. I saw Daaher before his last race and he looked annoyed. Nobody mentioned it though online.

I have read many reports from fans that War Pass did not look good. I have to side with them because it was also reported that he was restless in the gate. I don't ever remember him being that way before any race. This is before the race where pace does not come into play yet.

I did the replay of the race and he didn't look the same. So far I have to side with the crowd that says he didn't good.

rokitman
03-16-2008, 04:22 PM
Oh, brother. People are going to to come out of the woodwork now and say they knew before the race that he didn't look right. Apparently, these visual experts do not make bets of any significance. The horse was 1/20.

asH
03-16-2008, 04:39 PM
cha-ching & violins:)

ny0707ny
03-16-2008, 04:45 PM
Who would think he would lose? He has a perfect record and the field he was facing was not exactly Derby quality horses.

At the track the pressure of the crowd is so strong that to go against them is almost impossible. Not to mention the fact that the horse has a huge following already.

I don't think most people can see any visual signs in a horse. How many people actually watch the horses before the race anyway? Most people don't. They just go by the PP and nothing else.

onefast99
03-16-2008, 05:45 PM
Funny that you'd say this, most especially about Zito, when 99.9% of the big races he has a horse in, he will do the exact same thing he did yesterday--and that is--move off alone by himself--away from the owner, the fans, and anyone else that would hinder his watching of his horse's run.

LaPenta spoke with the press, before the race and after the race. Nick Zito did not speak with press after the race, he was on his way to attend to his horse.

I think your shot is cheap.
Everyones entitled to their own opinion, it was not a cheap shot by any means, Lapenta said the horse had a fever and he didnt know how it may have affected his running in this race, Zito said the same exact thing. If you watch races you will see lapenta talk to the reporters he has a knack for talking, nothing wrong with that at all but tie it all together and yes the horse looked a bit off and thankfully I got to the windows and cancelled the tickets. I think you lost your shirt but thats just an assumption on my part.:lol:

onefast99
03-16-2008, 05:48 PM
Did you see him in person?

The reason I ask is this snip from a post in another thread.
Yes I was 10 feet from him in the paddock. He went to the track and looked tight not loose like most of the others. It was a hot day and all the horses were sweating but not foaming. I just felt that it wasnt a good bet so based on what I saw I cancelled my bets. Thats it nothing more nothing less.

Jeff P
03-16-2008, 06:24 PM
Maybe War Pass had a fever for a few days. Maybe the "he had a fever" excuse was just mindless rhetoric. Because I don't know the horse's connections personally I doubt I'll ever know the truth.

But I think most players are overlooking something else here... something that should never be overlooked - because it's really basic - something right out of Handicapping 101 - one of those things we as players need to keep in mind at all times if we are to have any chance of being able to win consistently.

Every horse has a running style.

One of those run styles is the "need the lead" or "E" horse. In layman's terms: A need the lead horse needs the lead right from the start in order to win races. A need the lead horse has a very hard time winning a race by rating and trying to pass other horses in the later stages of a race.

One of my biggest pet peeves as a bettor is watching a rider (and trainers who instruct a rider to do this) make the "bonehead" mistake of taking a true need the lead horse back off the pace in the hopes that the horse will give a winning effort today by passing other horses at some later point in the race. After watching and betting tens of thousands of races over the last several decades I can honestly say that in about 98 percent of all cases this tactic doesn't work.

It's so simple that it almost hurts. A true need the lead horse needs the lead in order to win. When a need the lead horse doesn't get the lead he has no shot. Period.

In my opinion, that's exactly what we saw yesterday.

-jp

.

Grits
03-16-2008, 06:33 PM
Everyones entitled to their own opinion, it was not a cheap shot by any means, Lapenta said the horse had a fever and he didnt know how it may have affected his running in this race, Zito said the same exact thing. If you watch races you will see lapenta talk to the reporters he has a knack for talking, nothing wrong with that at all but tie it all together and yes the horse looked a bit off and thankfully I got to the windows and cancelled the tickets. I think you lost your shirt but thats just an assumption on my part.:lol:

Don't hold a good deal of stock in assumptions.

At less than even money, I don't bother to raise up out of my seat and cross the room. Actually, to be quite honest, I don't know a great number of folks that do.

BoldEye
03-16-2008, 06:41 PM
Very rarely does a vanned off horse come back to win. Very rarely!

You're right, onefast. More to the point, though, is if you were told War Pass had a temperature spike earlier in the week, but looked fine in your pre-race evaluation, would you not have bet him? The reason you passed on him yesterday was because he didn't look right in your eyes. If all the numbers line up and the horse's pre-race appearance looks good, I doubt if a required report on a temperature spiking earlier in the week would trump everything else...

CryingForTheHorses
03-16-2008, 07:01 PM
Funny that you'd say this, most especially about Zito, when 99.9% of the big races he has a horse in, he will do the exact same thing he did yesterday--and that is--move off alone by himself--away from the owner, the fans, and anyone else that would hinder his watching of his horse's run.

LaPenta spoke with the press, before the race and after the race. Nick Zito did not speak with press after the race, he was on his way to attend to his horse.

I think your shot is cheap.

He was leaving to get away from the press!!!..Im sure he was embarrassed with the fine job of training..When you lose your common sense in this game,That will defeat all your angles...IF this story is true about his fever,This horse may be cooked for the rest of his racing life.Fevers are very dangerous even after they seemed to have disappeared...Drugs can hide the fever but doesnt get rid of the long standing problem!

onefast99
03-16-2008, 07:26 PM
You're right, onefast. More to the point, though, is if you were told War Pass had a temperature spike earlier in the week, but looked fine in your pre-race evaluation, would you not have bet him? The reason you passed on him yesterday was because he didn't look right in your eyes. If all the numbers line up and the horse's pre-race appearance looks good, I doubt if a required report on a temperature spiking earlier in the week would trump everything else...
Agree, I have watched a lot of horses come onto the track and look rough some have won and some have done nothing. This is the first time I have ever seen a horse with the talent he has to win the derby go from the paddock to the track and not look razor sharp. Some bring up the arguement that he was taken out of the race as soon as the gates opened, I think he was done before the race even began. By the way in the BC Curlin looked unreal coming out of the paddock.

onefast99
03-16-2008, 07:27 PM
Don't hold a good deal of stock in assumptions.

At less than even money, I don't bother to raise up out of my seat and cross the room. Actually, to be quite honest, I don't know a great number of folks that do.
Yep your right thats why the favorites are the most bet on horses in a race. I would bet that most people you talked to prior to the race didnt think War pass would lose. In fact go look at the show pool and see how much was bet on this horse just so someone could walk away making 5% on their money. The good thing is there are plenty more races for the followers of war Pass to bet on this horse. Also the next time the odds will be a bit better and you will probably bet on this horse.

jonnielu
03-16-2008, 10:55 PM
Who would think he would lose? He has a perfect record and the field he was facing was not exactly Derby quality horses.

At the track the pressure of the crowd is so strong that to go against them is almost impossible. Not to mention the fact that the horse has a huge following already.

I don't think most people can see any visual signs in a horse. How many people actually watch the horses before the race anyway? Most people don't. They just go by the PP and nothing else.

And here is a great example of the need to look at a couple of other things. War Pass had taken every hurdle up to the two turn distance. This one sits up a little higher then those he has already cleared.

There is nothing in the past performances that would suggest that War Pass would win here, no where do the PP's show that War Pass is a real threat to win at a 2 turn distance. The wise bettor should insist on some more evidence. This had race had watch written all over it for anyone that has enough experience to know that a 3YO this time of year is comparable to a 19 year old kid.

Just about anybody can look at a horse and tell if he feels good or not. And, it is a generality that at least suggests that the horse will likely run to his ability. Physicality is not a method of comparison, this one looks good, but, I think this one looks better. No, it is a green light, red light technique. If War Pass were sick yesterday, anyone looking could have seen it.

Watch for more then average warmups, take notice that when you see one, that horse will run well. If you do that, every now and then you will see a magnificent warmup, it will have an aura around it that any idiot looking can notice. Look at the PP's for that horse, if they are truly dismal, send it in with both hands. I kid you not, go get a hot dog if you want, but don't blame me because you think you don't have the skill, because you do. It is just common sense.

I took my daughter to Tampa on Jan. 25th to show her the ropes of physicality. After, just a bit of tutoring she had found what she judged to be a fine physical specimen, the #8 in the 8th. So, the old man here looked this horse over in the post parade and got busy explaining that while this was a tremendous example of fine physical conditioning, and a magnificent specimen to be sure, the first time starter had a rating below 150. We should only get excited if the first timer is over 150 and I really like 200 myself, although if they were going to race on looks, that was the winner. And, besides, everybody knows that the #8 never wins the 8th race anyway.

I was still explaining the fine points of all of this while the #8 came tearing down the stretch to win by 4 and pay about $26.??

No problem, I say to the inquisitive young lady, there is another race right after this one. I think that was the race where the #10 broke through the gate and I proceeded to explain how seriously negative this is. And it really saddened me because this animal was in my trifecta. I did allow that horses have been known to win after such an incident, but, it was usually bad news. I was again fully esconced in explaining all of this in great detail even as the #10 came thundering down the stretch to win for $40something.

At this point, I was really lamenting letting her drive us from Ocala, because all the way down I-75 I was telling her that it looked like the best opportunity of the day was likely the third race. We arrived too late to get any betting done for that one, yeah, it paid $20something.

She didn't win much money that day, but we learned many things about horse racing. We learned that there are many things that one should pay attention to, and a few that one need not pay attention to.

jdl

PaceAdvantage
03-17-2008, 04:02 AM
just speculating...but not to far off the trail

I would ask Zito if his race intentions were to rate War Pass from the pack. C. Velasquez didnt appear to want the front until the stretch.I think you might be onto something here....If CV really, really wanted the front with WP, he had every opportunity to go between those two horses entering the first turn, but he chose not to....in fact, he took back, maybe out of necessity, but also maybe out of design.

Perhaps the TBD was the race where Zito and company decided to see if WP could rally from off the pace....it wouldn't be the first time such an experiment was conducted in the sport of horse racing.

onefast99
03-17-2008, 07:32 AM
And here is a great example of the need to look at a couple of other things. War Pass had taken every hurdle up to the two turn distance. This one sits up a little higher then those he has already cleared.

There is nothing in the past performances that would suggest that War Pass would win here, no where do the PP's show that War Pass is a real threat to win at a 2 turn distance. The wise bettor should insist on some more evidence. This had race had watch written all over it for anyone that has enough experience to know that a 3YO this time of year is comparable to a 19 year old kid.

Just about anybody can look at a horse and tell if he feels good or not. And, it is a generality that at least suggests that the horse will likely run to his ability. Physicality is not a method of comparison, this one looks good, but, I think this one looks better. No, it is a green light, red light technique. If War Pass were sick yesterday, anyone looking could have seen it.

Watch for more then average warmups, take notice that when you see one, that horse will run well. If you do that, every now and then you will see a magnificent warmup, it will have an aura around it that any idiot looking can notice. Look at the PP's for that horse, if they are truly dismal, send it in with both hands. I kid you not, go get a hot dog if you want, but don't blame me because you think you don't have the skill, because you do. It is just common sense.

I took my daughter to Tampa on Jan. 25th to show her the ropes of physicality. After, just a bit of tutoring she had found what she judged to be a fine physical specimen, the #8 in the 8th. So, the old man here looked this horse over in the post parade and got busy explaining that while this was a tremendous example of fine physical conditioning, and a magnificent specimen to be sure, the first time starter had a rating below 150. We should only get excited if the first timer is over 150 and I really like 200 myself, although if they were going to race on looks, that was the winner. And, besides, everybody knows that the #8 never wins the 8th race anyway.

I was still explaining the fine points of all of this while the #8 came tearing down the stretch to win by 4 and pay about $26.??

No problem, I say to the inquisitive young lady, there is another race right after this one. I think that was the race where the #10 broke through the gate and I proceeded to explain how seriously negative this is. And it really saddened me because this animal was in my trifecta. I did allow that horses have been known to win after such an incident, but, it was usually bad news. I was again fully esconced in explaining all of this in great detail even as the #10 came thundering down the stretch to win for $40something.

At this point, I was really lamenting letting her drive us from Ocala, because all the way down I-75 I was telling her that it looked like the best opportunity of the day was likely the third race. We arrived too late to get any betting done for that one, yeah, it paid $20something.

She didn't win much money that day, but we learned many things about horse racing. We learned that there are many things that one should pay attention to, and a few that one need not pay attention to.

jdl
Finally someone who writes about the horses themselves instead of what the toteboard says. There is always a horse that just seems to stand out in every race during the post parade whether it is the favorite or the longshot,sometimes they win or sometimes they lose but the look on the horse is "I'm ready to run" that is a part of handicapping that no sheet number or beyer will tell you. Thanks for the post!

cj
03-17-2008, 07:58 AM
And here is a great example of the need to look at a couple of other things. War Pass had taken every hurdle up to the two turn distance. ...
jdl

You mean, of course, other than the fact that he had already won at two turns at that exact distance?

To suggest this horse didn't deserve to be a very heavy favorite in that field is a big stretch. He clearly was not himself which is something you can't see perusing the printed PPs. I just don't see any way it was the two turns that foiled him.

Grits
03-17-2008, 09:57 AM
Yep your right thats why the favorites are the most bet on horses in a race.
As I said, forget chalk. You can go to the windows and hammer a 1/9 shot. Knock yourself out. You can also change your mind when you deem that he's "off" and cancel your bets. I'll try and look for value elsewhere in the 2nd or 3rd choice.

I would bet that most people you talked to prior to the race didnt think War pass would lose.
There ya go again Fast, betting. And once again, you're incorrect. I didn't bet a dime on War Pass, and I didn't talk to anyone, unless you consider the dog--someone. I watched the race, here, at home on TVG. I listened to Simon Bray interview LaPenta, and followed the post parade as much as the camera allowed.
I will say most of the people that I spend time with are those that know, without a doubt--its a horse race, and anything can, and does, happen. Chalk gets beaten everyday, though whales are hoping that doesn't happen. Each race is different and nothing is a lock. There is no such thing in racing as a mortal lock. Believing so rips a lot of tickets.

The good thing is there are plenty more races for the followers of war Pass to bet on this horse. Also the next time the odds will be a bit better and you will probably bet on this horse.
Again, you are assuming. Different race, different entries may not produce a bet next out either.

My point in this remains, regarding your comment about Nick Zito. The man has been around for a long time. He has Derby winners behind him, and countless graded stakes winners. Not to mention his finest coup--when he quietly took a small, slip of a horse up to Saratoga to train each day over the deep going that's the Oklahoma. Then shipped his fresh, well conditioned, ready to run colt back downstate. Where he, Birdstone, left Smarty Jones at the damn 1/8th pole winning the Belmont. (Had to be one of the finest training moves I've ever witnessed.)

I don't feel that I have the absolute right to always know what a horse trainer's intent is. In this game, as we are aware, there is trial and error. One doesn't know if a frontrunner can be rated, one doesn't know regarding surface changes, etc, etc. The variables are endless.

And too, I can give benefit of the doubt to them when speaking to the public, particularly, when stunned moments earlier by a poor performance. How well would you do with a microphone shoved at you?

I'm not saying this, solely for Zito, I'm saying this for any trainer. Horses have bad days, bad runs. Its up to the trainers to figure out, if indeed, there is a problem. And proceed, accordingly. Zito, thus far, has been pretty good at it.

asH
03-17-2008, 10:23 AM
I think you might be onto something here....If CV really, really wanted the front with WP, he had every opportunity to go between those two horses entering the first turn, but he chose not to....in fact, he took back, maybe out of necessity, but also maybe out of design.

Perhaps the TBD was the race where Zito and company decided to see if WP could rally from off the pace....it wouldn't be the first time such an experiment was conducted in the sport of horse racing.

WP's first race back was a puzzle to me, but when seen in the context of relative pace- Fountain of Youth run the same day (won by Cool Coal Man, second Elysium Fields)
24.03, 47.62, 1:11.52, 1:36.32, 1:50.07 , perhaps his fractions 23.94, 46.72, 1:11.90, 1:36.38 gave the connections feelings of 'super horse'

actions speak louder than words, but first comments in situations like these are interesting

http://www.bloodhorse.com/articleindex/article.asp?id=44103


"You saw what happened (at the break)," Zito said. "But he got moving and I thought he was in a good position going down the back, but when (Cornelio Velasquez) asked him, nothing happened. I don't know what happened. I just don't know."

Of War Pass, Velasquez said, "He just didn’t go today like he always has. At the half-mile, he wanted to go to the lead but he just couldn’t go. Today he just didn’t try like he has in the past. I don’t know. He just stayed back and couldn’t take the lead. He did not run today; he’s a nice horse, but I don't think he liked the track."

no mention of fever, just shock and awe.
what do they do now?

for bridgejumpers- the next race WP must run well to regain his seat, ck the workouts

onefast99
03-17-2008, 10:30 AM
As I said, forget chalk. You can go to the windows and hammer a 1/9 shot. Knock yourself out. You can also change your mind when you deem that he's "off" and cancel your bets. I'll try and look for value elsewhere in the 2nd or 3rd choice.


There ya go again Fast, betting. And once again, you're incorrect. I didn't bet a dime on War Pass, and I didn't talk to anyone, unless you consider the dog--someone. I watched the race, here, at home on TVG. I listened to Simon Bray interview LaPenta, and followed the post parade as much as the camera allowed.
I will say most of the people that I spend time with are those that know, without a doubt--its a horse race, and anything can, and does, happen. Chalk gets beaten everyday, though whales are hoping that doesn't happen. Each race is different and nothing is a lock. There is no such thing in racing as a mortal lock. Believing so rips a lot of tickets.


Again, you are assuming. Different race, different entries may not produce a bet next out either.

My point in this remains, regarding your comment about Nick Zito. The man has been around for a long time. He has Derby winners behind him, and countless graded stakes winners. Not to mention his finest coup--when he quietly took a small, slip of a horse up to Saratoga to train each day over the deep going that's the Oklahoma. Then shipped his fresh, well conditioned, ready to run colt back downstate. Where he, Birdstone, left Smarty Jones at the damn 1/8th pole winning the Belmont. (Had to be one of the finest training moves I've ever witnessed.)

I don't feel that I have the absolute right to always know what a horse trainer's intent is. In this game, as we are aware, there is trial and error. One doesn't know if a frontrunner can be rated, one doesn't know regarding surface changes, etc, etc. The variables are endless.

And too, I can give benefit of the doubt to them when speaking to the public, particularly, when stunned moments earlier by a poor performance. How well would you do with a microphone shoved at you?

I'm not saying this, solely for Zito, I'm saying this for any trainer. Horses have bad days, bad runs. Its up to the trainers to figure out, if indeed, there is a problem. And proceed, accordingly. Zito, thus far, has been pretty good at it.
Zito has been good at what? Your adding so much gas to this fire its now out of control. Birdsong? Ok he did a great job there, how does that affect War Pass entering the TB derby? Betting? People bet on 1-9 shots all day long I guess thats why they go to 1-9 right? As far as speaking to the public goes that is his job to tell people what may have happened, that is part of racing always has been and always will be. As far as the next time out if this horse is 100% he will be bet and thats for sure. You dont go 5-6 if you dont belong.

Donnie
03-17-2008, 10:44 AM
Ash--
when I read that story, I kinda freaked....this part rocked me.....

From Cornelio Velasquez:
"...He did not run today; he’s a nice horse...."
I have dogs at home. They're nice too. I was expecting the jock to call him a great horse. Those 4 words spoke volumes to me.

asH
03-17-2008, 10:58 AM
War Pass checks out OK; Zito mystified

By MIKE WELSCH HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. – Trainer Nick Zito still had no explanation Sunday for the performance of War Pass...

“All the preliminary tests we've done are good," Zito said. "He scoped clean after the race, his airways are great, and he had no infection...


http://www.drf.com/news/article/93020.html

Grits
03-17-2008, 12:24 PM
Further reading at Horseracing Insider: provided by EquiD.

http://www.horseraceinsider.com/blog.php/Racing-to-the-Kentucky-Derby/comments/03162008-foreboding-omens-in-tampa/#comments

asH
03-17-2008, 02:04 PM
Ash--
when I read that story, I kinda freaked....this part rocked me.....


I have dogs at home. They're nice too. I was expecting the jock to call him a great horse. Those 4 words spoke volumes to me.

At this 'level' I find jocks,trainers & owners usually in agreement about a horse. After going undefeated and winning the BCJ, his nice would be a lot less than the connections thinking about the horse.

Velázquez’s comments suggest he felt WP should have won too....interesting, what if WP is just a nice horse??

ny0707ny
03-17-2008, 02:47 PM
War Pass - Seattle Slew comparison. LaPenta believes also same as me that this horse is special. If anyone can't see it, you have to learn how to spot the great ones.
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44120

If he is retired I can't follow horse racing anymore. I will have to take years off from it at the min. Too many great horses I liked are just going down to early or retiring at 3 years old. I think he can come back, but I am retiring if he does not at least for a long time.

alysheba88
03-17-2008, 03:08 PM
War Pass - Seattle Slew comparison. LaPenta believes also same as me that this horse is special. If anyone can't see it, you have to learn how to spot the great ones.
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44120

If he is retired I can't follow horse racing anymore. I will have to take years off from it at the min. Too many great horses I liked are just going down to early or retiring at 3 years old. I think he can come back, but I am retiring if he does not at least for a long time.

Why would you stop playing because of one horse? You are the star of the game. The player. Not the horse, not the jockey, not the trainer. Understand being a fan of certain horses but to stop playing?

onefast99
03-17-2008, 03:36 PM
[QUOTE=alysheba88]Why would you stop playing because of one horse? You are the star of the game. The player. Not the horse, not the jockey, not the trainer. Understand being a fan of certain horses but to stop playing?[/QUOTE It must be St patricks day the green beer is flowing. I cant see someone not playing the ponies because of a loss and certainly i could care less what Lapenta has to say he buys them not trains them and CV can say what he wants its meaningless, trainers that listen to jockeys about what a horse needs are not real good trainers.:eek:

ny0707ny
03-17-2008, 03:52 PM
Oh, I don't play them. I just follow it as a sport like baseball and other sports. I just got tired of all the great ones going down over the years and the horses not racing at 4 years old. It is not just War Pass.

All retired early:
Afleet Alex
Smarty Jones
Street Sense
Hard Spun
Lion Heart

Achilles of Troy - injured before Derby good horse I spotted at 2.
Daaher- injured
Premium Tap - races overseas only now
Barbaro- dead

alysheba88
03-17-2008, 04:04 PM
Oh, I don't play them. I just follow it as a sport like baseball and other sports. I just got tired of all the great ones going down over the years and the horses not racing at 4 years old. It is not just War Pass.

All retired early:
Afleet Alex
Smarty Jones
Street Sense
Hard Spun
Lion Heart

Achilles of Troy - injured before Derby good horse I spotted at 2.
Daaher- injured
Premium Tap - races overseas only now
Barbaro- dead

So you dont bet at all?

onefast99
03-17-2008, 04:11 PM
Oh, I don't play them. I just follow it as a sport like baseball and other sports. I just got tired of all the great ones going down over the years and the horses not racing at 4 years old. It is not just War Pass.

All retired early:
Afleet Alex
Smarty Jones
Street Sense
Hard Spun
Lion Heart

Achilles of Troy - injured before Derby good horse I spotted at 2.
Daaher- injured
Premium Tap - races overseas only now
Barbaro- dead
You do bring out a good point for those who just watch the races and dont bet on them a lot of horses have been retired early many have gone on to good careers as stallions.

ny0707ny
03-17-2008, 04:57 PM
I did in past on the Derby just a little. Not anymore though. I really have no interest in the betting part of it. More like buying a lottery ticket once in a great while. Last year I did put $50 on Hard Spun to win. Street Sense decided to run the race of his life though.

I was considering $50 place oh him and figuered he can't lose. :)

I really like soccer and from what I have seen the MLS is getting bigger. More teams are being added. So I have that sport to follow. It should be really big one day I still predict. I said that since the 1980s though! It took almost 30 years but it's getting there. :D

onefast99
03-17-2008, 05:38 PM
I did in past on the Derby just a little. Not anymore though. I really have no interest in the betting part of it. More like buying a lottery ticket once in a great while. Last year I did put $50 on Hard Spun to win. Street Sense decided to run the race of his life though.

I was considering $50 place oh him and figuered he can't lose. :)

I really like soccer and from what I have seen the MLS is getting bigger. More teams are being added. So I have that sport to follow. It should be really big one day I still predict. I said that since the 1980s though! It took almost 30 years but it's getting there. :D
maybe when Pele comes back it will get some recognition!!!

ny0707ny
03-17-2008, 05:57 PM
maybe when Pele comes back it will get some recognition!!!

I like Jozy Altidore. I think he can get some excitment going on. He is really great on the field. Of course I am a Red Bull fan. :jump:

jonnielu
03-17-2008, 09:10 PM
You mean, of course, other than the fact that he had already won at two turns at that exact distance?

To suggest this horse didn't deserve to be a very heavy favorite in that field is a big stretch. He clearly was not himself which is something you can't see perusing the printed PPs. I just don't see any way it was the two turns that foiled him.

Does he deserve to be a heavy favorite in the Wood? Will you be in line with your $20?

cnollfan
03-17-2008, 11:54 PM
It aint rocket science. The stock market would not have investors if they did not report news. Racing should too.

Five days ago Bear Stearns' CEO was on TV telling us all the company had ample liquidity. The stock was $61.58 then. Today it's $4.81. I don't see much difference, other than $7 billion gone instead of $500,000.

Murph
03-18-2008, 06:01 AM
Ok, he was 2nd by a head at the 1st and 2nd call. Feel better!:DReminds me of what ash typed - occoms razor seems to fit the War Emblem scenario as well.

cj
03-18-2008, 06:27 AM
Does he deserve to be a heavy favorite in the Wood? Will you be in line with your $20?

I point out he won going two turns and you respond with this?

I have no idea who will show up in the Wood, but he certainly has question marks now. My $20...rofl.

Murph
03-18-2008, 06:43 AM
Hey Murph,

I realize that most of my posts are taken as being a bit smart-assed, but I'm just trying to promote some thought when I say, "why not?"

The Derby trail offers tremendous potential for learning many things that are very real when it comes to horse race analysis, because every year it teaches that you must lift your eyes from the racing form to consider some things that just aren't there.

Last year, the crop could be cut to 4 contenders off of PP's in February, and 3 of them were in the gate at CD on Derby Day. That race always cuts the triple crown contenders down to one, and maybe a couple of contenders for the next two races.

This year, the February list was 23 horses long, I don't know if that makes it a bad crop, or a very competitive crop because there are still 5 - 6 on it. And I suggest that we thank goodness as bettors that we could see some limitations on War Pass before Derby day. Now, he will have to convincingly show in the Wood that he can get the 1-1/4, and if he can not come up with a Secretariat style win there, we can take him off the list and not lose a dime on him in May.

So, today as bettors... we are sitting pretty because the most qualified on class/speed has to show us double what we had seen up to Friday last, while we still have several opportunities to measure the other half dozen on their ability match for the distinct requirements of the Kentucky Derby.

Let us pray that the great multitude will continue to lock in on "good form only" in mid-March, while we further examine these others in the interest of finding that "good Belmont horse" by the end of April that will likely arrive on Derby day at 6-1.

And remember, if we do it well, we get to say "he's been on my list since February".

jdlI had to think about this for a few mins before I could reply. (maybe that is what's aggravating about your posts :) )

Together with some other advice it has been suggested this may be the best Derby to wager on in some time instead of one to avoid. Maybe I don't get to have an opinion for this Derby and I'll just throw $40 or $50 into the betting winds and see what kind of tumbleweeds roll into town. I suppose that ticket could be my biggest score ever. I'd be sorry to miss that train (or that big truck).

Murph

onefast99
03-18-2008, 09:27 AM
Five days ago Bear Stearns' CEO was on TV telling us all the company had ample liquidity. The stock was $61.58 then. Today it's $4.81. I don't see much difference, other than $7 billion gone instead of $500,000.
Its the good ole boys club, the feds bailing out the wallstreeters in fear the Hamptons RE market may tank. Real bad for the economy and especially the dollar. But back to the horses...

asH
03-18-2008, 04:31 PM
Zito understands Aqu is speed favoring especially on Wood Saturday, watch WP's workouts... Zito should be pressin' him a bit for 5-6f, just to be sure WP is sharper and gets his position. Its kinda late in the game to change WP's runnin' style...do the connections really believe he can rate??

46zilzal
03-18-2008, 04:34 PM
Its kinda late in the game to change WP's runnin' style...do the connections really believe he can rate??
This one would have to do an about face to change energy style, BUT having said that, Zito is one of the few who has done it to other colts. It is however too late in the game to do that too well with this one.....More to know after the Wood but it appears a variation of Bellamy Road.

asH
03-18-2008, 05:49 PM
WP's first race back didnt tell much, the race was ok, the 6th race that day(Halo Holly, Overandbeauty) produced one of the of the better pace distributions of all 3 year olds including the Fountain. WP flashed a Z speed pattern which could mean he may need blinkers if they want to continue the experiment, the second half of his race was to slow to really tell me anything more. I believe trainers believe they can train 3year old champs the same as when they were 2. Last year I felt Nafzger babied Street Sense while other horses were developing pass him.

GlenninOhio
03-18-2008, 05:56 PM
This one would have to do an about face to change energy style, BUT having said that, Zito is one of the few who has done it to other colts. It is however too late in the game to do that too well with this one.....More to know after the Wood but it appears a variation of Bellamy Road.

Zito also had High Fly that year who went the FOY-Fla. Derby route.

Bellamy Road/High Fly ran 7/10 in the Derby.

At the second call, they were running 1/2.

Grits
03-18-2008, 07:39 PM
Zito also had High Fly that year who went the FOY-Fla. Derby route.

Bellamy Road/High Fly ran 7/10 in the Derby.

At the second call, they were running 1/2.

Wasn't it in 2005 that Zito had a record number of entries with 5 going?

Bellamy Road for Steinbrenner, High Fly for Charlotte Webber, Noble Causeway (I cannot recall the owner), Sun King for Tracy Farmer and Andromeda's Hero for Bob LaPenta.

That's unreal. All trainer's should be so blessed. I remember the press, that year, on the backstretch Derby Week followed his every move and hung on every word he uttered.

jonnielu
03-18-2008, 07:42 PM
I point out he won going two turns and you respond with this?

I have no idea who will show up in the Wood, but he certainly has question marks now. My $20...rofl.

Sorry, I thought you might notice my slop don't count post. So, it's like it didn't even happen. No horse deserves to be 1-9 unless it is racing it's own saddle.

jdl

alysheba88
03-18-2008, 08:17 PM
Wasn't it in 2005 that Zito had a record number of entries with 5 going?

Bellamy Road for Steinbrenner, High Fly for Charlotte Webber, Noble Causeway (I cannot recall the owner), Sun King for Tracy Farmer and Andromeda's Hero for Bob LaPenta.

That's unreal. All trainer's should be so blessed. I remember the press, that year, on the backstretch Derby Week followed his every move and hung on every word he uttered.

I could be wrong here, but I believe Sun King was only one he had at two. Again could be wrong. I remember High Fly and Bellamy Road being transferred to him at 3. Not sure about the others. Irony is Sun King was the one who outlasted them all

Grits
03-18-2008, 08:37 PM
Alysheba88, I loved Sun King, and yes, he far outlasted the others. One tough fella, he was.

rastajenk
03-19-2008, 08:18 AM
But he was never really very good. Burned lotsa money, though.