Dosage and Firsters

[Chris Longshot]

Quick question:

Was looking up on the query site, analyzing some firsters for tonight, came across a horse with a sire with a low dosage 2.13, if i'm interpreting correctly, a dosage bred more for stamina, however I checked up the dam, who has a high dosage for speed 8.21. I know they say a mixture of stamina and speed is ideal, just wanted to know how much emphasis should be put on a sire's dosage and how much should be put on the dam dosage. Is one more important than the other? I know the dam side tells more about the class of the horse, the race is a MSW at 5 1/2 furlongs. Workouts were slow, more stamina buliding works than speed, last one at 6f. Just trying to find out if this horse has hidden speed on the dam side or is a slow horse out for the exercise, preparing for a future stretch out, thanks guys!

[Chris Longshot]

the horse in question just won at mnr at 24-1, he answered my question lol

[Tom]

Did you have him?
Hope so.....

[pandy]

Quick question:

Was looking up on the query site, analyzing some firsters for tonight, came across a horse with a sire with a low dosage 2.13, if i'm interpreting correctly, a dosage bred more for stamina, however I checked up the dam, who has a high dosage for speed 8.21. I know they say a mixture of stamina and speed is ideal, just wanted to know how much emphasis should be put on a sire's dosage and how much should be put on the dam dosage. Is one more important than the other? I know the dam side tells more about the class of the horse, the race is a MSW at 5 1/2 furlongs. Workouts were slow, more stamina buliding works than speed, last one at 6f. Just trying to find out if this horse has hidden speed on the dam side or is a slow horse out for the exercise, preparing for a future stretch out, thanks guys!

From my observations, firsters with Dosage 3.00 or over will win more often in sprints than 3.00 or under, and vice versa. I'm not sure about sire/dam, but I would tend to prefer a horse that has a sire with a suitable dosage for the distance. But of course there are many horses that win first time out that are bred to run long.

[Chris Longshot]

Did you have him?
Hope so.....

Yeah I did use him Tom, just wished I would have included him under my mountaineer selections thread, so a few others would have played him but can't post 5 selections a race, though sometimes I wish I could lol.

[Chris Longshot]

From my observations, firsters with Dosage 3.00 or over will win more often in sprints than 3.00 or under, and vice versa. I'm not sure about sire/dam, but I would tend to prefer a horse that has a sire with a suitable dosage for the distance. But of course there are many horses that win first time out that are bred to run long.


thanks for the reply pandy, I do know that the lower the dosage, the more stamina and the higher the dosage the more speed but specifically wondering, if there is a horse with a low dosage on the sire's end but has a dam with a high dosage for speed, is a valuable hidden angle, since a lot of people tend only to look at the sire's credentials. The horse that won at 24-1 was by a hot but low % trainer, with a lousy % with firsters also with a sire that doesn't win first out, took them gate to wire tonight on a track I felt was not favorable to speed/front runners, only clue this horse had speed was through the dams side, the high dosage tip me off, that was my question, thanks again pandy.

[russowen77]

Imo, a better indication is looking at his DP.
It is the number of major sires in his background that add certain speed elements. 5 numbers. From left to right is max speed to max stamina. The greater the total in his first two the greater the chance of him being precocius. Dam side considered as well as sire line. It really shows breeder intent with a much cleared picture imo.

[Chris Longshot]

Imo, a better indication is looking at his DP.
It is the number of major sires in his background that add certain speed elements. 5 numbers. From left to right is max speed to max stamina. The greater the total in his first two the greater the chance of him being precocius. Dam side considered as well as sire line. It really shows breeder intent with a much cleared picture imo.


was wondering what the DP meant, I guess Dosage Profile, thanks russ, good information. Just one more question since you seem to know, the horse in question tonights DP was 2-1-5-0-0 on the sire's side, which is lower and 7-4-3-0-0 on the dam side, would the 11 total on the dam side tip us off to the horse being live?? Is that considered high or average what's the median? if there is one.

[pandy]

thanks for the reply pandy, I do know that the lower the dosage, the more stamina and the higher the dosage the more speed but specifically wondering, if there is a horse with a low dosage on the sire's end but has a dam with a high dosage for speed, is a valuable hidden angle, since a lot of people tend only to look at the sire's credentials. The horse that won at 24-1 was by a hot but low % trainer, with a lousy % with firsters also with a sire that doesn't win first out, took them gate to wire tonight on a track I felt was not favorable to speed/front runners, only clue this horse had speed was through the dams side, the high dosage tip me off, that was my question, thanks again pandy.

I bet a lot of longshot firsters and it's amazing how many win that have 1). trainers who do poorly with firsters, 2). slow or only a few works, 3). route breeding but win in sprints, 4). no speed but win anyway from off the pace. The thing is, if a horse is a runner, it's a runner and it will win regardless of the trainer, jockey, breeding, works, etc.

[1st time lasix]

Firsters that win have several different profiles.... but generally you are better off finding one with a series of works that include two running 12 seconds per furlong {3F at 48 or 4F around 1:00}. I prefer one or both of these works buried back in time a bit. It suggests to me that the trainer/owner now recognize the horse has some speed and the remaing works might be longer to build some stamina. "Win early" breeding from your own experience or from data helps identify some live plays. An Indian Charlie, Cherakee Run, Distorted Humor, Elusive Quality etc. I have very little luck with offspring from Tiznow, Futsachi Pegasus or Skip Trial. Wondering what we get from Empire Maker? I find that a young horse coming from a Pletcher or Asmussion high profile barn are generally overbet. They sure get their fair share but people seem to bet the slow ones too. Wagering on inexperienced runners is much more speculative.... but can produce a nice bonanza when you get it right. I think I read somewhere that "cold" firsters above 12-1 are usually not talented....many live longshots run between 3-1 and 10-1 in my experience. But what do i know....it can be a humbling game!

[pandy]

Firsters that win have several different profiles.... but generally you are better off finding one with a series of works that include two running 12 seconds per furlong {3F at 48 or 4F around 1:00}. I prefer one or both of these works buried back in time a bit. It suggests to me that the trainer/owner now recognize the horse has some speed and the remaing works might be longer to build some stamina. "Win early" breeding from your own experience or from data helps identify some live plays. An Indian Charlie, Cherakee Run, Distorted Humor, Elusive Quality etc. I have very little luck with offspring from Tiznow, Futsachi Pegasus or Skip Trial. Wondering what we get from Empire Maker? I find that a young horse coming from a Pletcher or Asmussion high profile barn are generally overbet. They sure get their fair share but people seem to bet the slow ones too. Wagering on inexperienced runners is much more speculative.... but can produce a nice bonanza when you get it right. I think I read somewhere that "cold" firsters above 12-1 are usually not talented....many live longshots run between 3-1 and 10-1 in my experience. But what do i know....it can be a humbling game!

My most profitable bets on firsters are usually over 12-1 odds. In the past year I've hit firsters that paid $154, $88, $72, $68, and many between $30 and $40. I've seen many well bred firsters win and pay over $40, even some that were well connected. I used to believe that live firsters get bet, but believe me, tons of longshots win at first asking at huge prices.

[cmoore]

First time starters races are my favorite type. Six furlongs or less is what I focus on. There are plenty of longshots that hit over the long haul that the public simply throws out. Here's a link of the top sprint sires at 6F or less over the last 3 years. http://www.breedingwinners.com/reports/TopSprintSiresDirt.PDF