Will it ever come back?

[cj]

For two years now, I've been following the experts concerning the stock market. Buy when its down, keep buying...yada, yada, yada.

I am only 35 and I know (hope, at least) I have a long time, but is there any hope for the near future? I'm sick of watching my portfolio drop EVERY stinkin' month. Am I doing right by continued buying? Guess I'm just looking for some optimism from some regular people, not those on TV with their own interests at heart!

CJ

[Tom]

Until corporate greed and studidity are putin check, we are in trouble. This whole concept of a world-wide economy is just crap - tranlated it means make it over there with cheapo labor then bring it back and sell it high. The problem with this is that eventually, no one here will have jobs and will not able to buy it here. America will certainly become a third world country if we are relegated to having only service industries. And that is where we are headed. We need a strong manufacturing base s to sustain growth. GM, Ford, Kodak, Xerox, etc, are now multi-national, which means they are no longer American. I say, make it there, sell it there-don't bring it home to sell. You get a Mexican to work for $2 an housr...great. Sell him the car. NAFTA will destroy us. Terrorist can never hurt us that badly- our business leader can, and will. Our society is structured vertically, but big business operates horizontally. Our business leader are coveting China as an untapped market....China is an evil empire that murders its own citizens. It is not fit to be allowed on the world stage-we should be denying China everything- zero trade with China, until their own people finally grow some and rise up and liberate themselves. We are rewarding an evil dictator with Big Macs.
After the Iraqi war is over, I say, all the oild there and in Kuwati is OURS to use and sell as we see fit...and we should really charge coward nations like France and Germany through the nose for their failure to support us.

[freeneasy]

up the yin yang

[BillW]

CJ,

This may be a flawed way of looking at it, but if it doesn't comeback and flourish in your lifetime ... you'll have a lot more to worry about than being broke for retirement. i.e. I believe your question can be translated to: Will the American economy/way of life prosper or fail? Short term, probably once we show consistent signs of getting terrorism exterminated and Iraq/Korea under control, things will pick up. Hang in there.

Bill

[JustRalph]

Keep buying CJ. I ran with profits a few years back before it tanked. It was worth it. There are some great deals out there, and I am short on cash right now. I wish I could buy right now. you will be glad in ten or 20 years. :cool:

You should only have a few more years before you punch out Huh? That will be nice. You earned it.

[andicap]

I was thinking about this as I was shoveling snow this morning.
I was considering the differences between the market and horse racing and how we bet differently.

We all invested heavily in the market at its peak because we believed in it. That is, the psychological risk was low. We had "confidence" in that fundamental fairness, and logicality of the stock market. Good companies make money. Bad companies lose money. Hey, this game isn't hard if you know what you're doing.
It was easy making a bet of thousands of dollars on these companies because as Americans we believe in egalitarianism -- everyone can win if they are smart enough.
That was before we realized the game was fixed, the accounting rules were flawed and the system was anything but fair and logical.
So people ran from the game in droves and are afraid to come back because they still don't have confidence that the game is truly fair.

Think of it now in comparison to horse racing. Most people hate the game becasue they think it is fixed. They like casinos because even though the odds are stacked against them, the game is fair in that everyone has a equal chance and the game is not fixed.

Why did I think nothing of dumping $5,000 in a company that is now almost bankrupt, but my hands shake when I bet $100 on a horse? Sure, you never know how one bet will turn out but if you think of investing as 500 sessions of $100 bets rather than dumping $5,000 in the market, you know from your records what is likely to happen.
Yet in the back of my mind, I still wonder how can you make money from a bunch of dumb animals in which the research (i.e., the past performances) is considered so flawed. That is, result charts are often wrong, speed figures and pace figs are pretty much estimates. Does anyone take all the info in the DRF/BRIS literally. We all know its off by a bit, but figure it's probably off by a bit for everyone and it's the best there is, so don't think about it too much.

Now that we know Wall Street plays by the same rules as racing -- the research is not accurate, the analysts are crooked (beholden to their investment bank colleagues rther than shareholders) and the companies are fixing the game -- you end up with as much confidence in investing as in racing.

And that's why people aren't betting as much in the market.
Until public confidence in the market returns to its former levels, stocks will consider to trade within this narrow, volatile range.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by andicap
Now that we know Wall Street plays by the same rules as racing -- the research is not accurate , the analysts are crooked (beholden to their investment bank colleagues rther than shareholders) and the companies are fixing the game -- you end up with as much confidence in investing as in racing.



Great post Andicap. The bottom line right now (based on the original question) is that there are some good stocks out there that are bargain basement priced right now. If you are fortunate enough to be able to buy.....you should be doing it, but use your head.

The research data in Horse Racing no longer needs to be inaccurate. They need to make changes, use the technology that's available now. I would like to see those changes.

[linrom1]

Investing and horseracing are contrairian games. You won't make money over an extended period of time betting with the public. However, unlike the stock market, horseracing is not a ponzzi scheme, you get odds.

Despite the recent stock market declines, over 50% of the public is still invested in the market and most still continue to plow money in through their 401ks. The market needs new money to go up, so this game iimplies that you 'll continue to get less then even money until equilibrium is reached, when your return is eventually nothing, and you lose all.

So my advice is to wait until the ponzzi scheme implodes, and you find yourself on the bottom of the inverted pyramid instead of top.

[Tom]

I think racing is much more honest than the business world.
Never have I met more bald faced liars and assorted scum bags than in business situations. Nice suits and fancy cars can't cover over the stench.
My philosophy is buy! If the economy picks up I can pay for it. If the economy fails, I want to be maxed out on everything-possesion is 9/10ths of the law.

[PaceAdvantage]

Terrorism, war, no positive outlooks from industry leaders, employment picture showing a slim glimmer of hope, but can you really trust those numbers (they tend to be 'revised' a month later), wholesale inventories up, sales down....etc...etc...

I see nothing positive coming within the next 6-12 months. The S&P500 was at 911 on September 11, 2002. It's now around 830. I think we're going to retest (again) those October lows and probably go further down resulting in a huge capitulation that will finally signal the end of the bear market, when everyone finally throws in the towel and there is indeed 'blood in the streets'.....

Yes, it will come back...but probably not for at least 5-10 years.


Just my humble opinion....


==PA

[Derek2U]

as a wall st guy i kinda agree w/ U PA ... almost EVERY market
sector is worried & now w/ all this FED intervention ... lucky my
bonus came in as i hoped because i largely had it pre-spent

[andicap]

What happens if there's a quick war with Iraq like what happened the last time? Won't the market celebrate?

[Tom]

It will if are smart this time and:
1. Kill Saddam
2. Take the oil

Another outside chance if if one of our bombs accidently falls out over France-I'll throw a helluva party!