Woodside Associates - Race Of The Week

[john del riccio]

The Henry Kuck Ratings for The Rebel Stakes this saturday at OP are available at the link below. Good Luck.

John

http://www.woodsideassociates.com/r...heweek/rotw.pdf (http://www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf)

[JPinMaryland]

You know from a marketing stand pt. I would think your sheets would be more marketable if you were able to post the name of the race, the running order, the fractions, etc. of eachrace. It is really very hard to look at your sheet and try to remember for ex: who anak nakal was running against or what the fractions were. I often do different comparisons rather than strict numbers, e.g. horse vs horse, or surfaces or fractions or trip notes or whatever.

I don't know if large scale appeal is part of your plan, but I think the above would help it so. Personally I like reading your analysis and much of it seems right on.

[john del riccio]

My initial thoughts for the REBEL....

ISABULL hasn't run as well as the majority of the field has, wasn't bet when he tried better locally and will likely be facing a swifter pace than he is accustomed to. His last two works were solid and he did have an eventful star last out but will need to move up to compete.

SIERRA SUNSET ran very well in the Southwest after setting a very swift pace over the SA cushion track previously. He shows a sharp 5f drill and Emigh retains the mount. His inability to pass horses may come into play if he is challenged early and the pace is swift.

STONEBIRD has taken to the OP surface but makes a major step up in class while having run inferiror figures when compared to this group. He shows only one workout in over a month, albeit a 6f bullert. Lukas taking a shot ?

SACRED JOURNEY earned the best pace rating in a two turn "dirt" race of any 3yo last out over the OP surface. He appears to be unratebale (comment) and its almost certain that his latest 6f drill was intended to attempt to get him to relax but whther he will on raceday is anyones guess.

GOLDEN YANK has been off over 3 months and sports an impressive record at lesser circuits for low profile connections and doesn't get either of the jocks that won on him to ride.

HE"S EZE appears to want one turn as his best race (by about 5 lengths) was at 7f and extraploating his Lecomte figure to the 1/8 pole validates that. He didn't move forward last and wasn't bet either. He does show acrisp 6f drill since then but he may be out of his element here.

KINGS SILVER SON made up alot of ground breaking his maiden at FG in January as a newly turned 3yo. He hasn't raced again and shows only three works since then which is very puzzling.

Betting support has not been in short supply in his six race career as he's been favored in his last four races. Bridgmohan stays up and Asmussen has been on a roll of sorts but this is a major step up.

ANAK NAKAL was as flat as a pancake in the Fountain of Youth Stakes where I thought he would run well since Zito didn't give him a prep and he had given a prep to THE COAL MAN. It is obvious now that the FOY was his prep. With that said, I would have liked to have seen more run from him that day and the switch to Bravo doesn't upgrade his chances in my opinion. His final race as 2yo at CD was quite good so I need to give him the benfit of the doubt since he has only thrown in one sub-par effort since then.

Z FORTUNE has run almsot two identical races in a row (based on The Henry Kuck Ratings) and was certainly flattered by both PYRO and VISIONNARE coming back to win their next starts. Gomez stays aboard and his 6f workout on 3/3 at FG may tell a little more than first meets the eye. It was the bullet for the day but guess who else worked a bullet the same day ? The "other" Assmussen trainee that hasn't run since January, KINGS SILVER SON. Was Z FORTUNE just toying with KINGS SILVER SON while never being asked, or was it the other way around ? At least we now know why Assmussen is running KINGS SILVER SON here.

John

[john del riccio]

STONEBIRD & KINGS SILVER SON are attempting to tackle much stiffer competition they they ever have in the past. KINGS SILVER SON isn't on the improve. STONEBIRD is improving but will need dramatic improvment again to compete here.

The pace scenario here looks to setup between & SACRED JOURNEY (78 pace) & SIERRA SUNSET (76 pace). However, there are some concerns. Neither one has won a two turn dirt race. SIERRA SUNSET won on the SA cushion track and did finish 2nd at OP. SACRED JOURNEY makes his 2nd start around two turns. The pace advantage these colts enjoy over the field favors SIERRA SUNSET.



The overall talent around two turns boils down to three contenders. ANAK NAKAL (77 variant), Z FORTUNE (76 variant), and SIERRA SUNSET (76 variant). Each of these horse have raced against strong competition with SIERRA SUNSET racing agianst the best competiton (70 class rating at HOL).

It appears that SIERRA SUNSET has an edge pace and an ever so slight edge in class over the other two. His inside post, race over the track, and sharp drill since that effort makes him the horse to beat. Z FORTUNE had a wide trip last out and he draws outside again today and will hopefully get a better trip. ANAK NAKAL was flat last out and it is always a good idea to give a consistent & talented horse the benefit of the doubt following a subpar effort. However, just one mediocre drill since that race and the rider switch to Bravo is reason enough to give pause.



SIERRA SUNSET 5-2
Z FORTUNE 7-2
ANAK NAPAL 6-1
Good Luck,

John