ThoroughbredZones Kentucky Derby Top 12

[Stevie Belmont]

Well we have done this the past two years here and we will make it number 3...The debut of the top 12 contenders as wee see it in March

The ThoroughbredZone Derby 12


Week of March 8th



Something new this year, we have listed in order, Breeding, Original Purchase Price, Month of Birth and Running style E-Early Speed, S-Stalker, R-Rally



1)WarPass -Cherokee Run - Vue - By Mr. Prospector, Purchase Price $180,000, April (E) -In the first ThoroughbredZone Derby 12 of the year its War Pass in the top spot. The undefeated Nick Zito trained colt and winner of the Champagne GI and BC Juvenile GI has done nothing wrong yet. His brilliant speed has continued to be his biggest asset as he has won all of his races by open lengths in front running style. If he can continue to improve as a 3 year old, he will continue to be the horse to beat. He does have the nagging question as to his ability to get a 1 ¼. His dam sire side is one of the most prolific lines in North American racing history and is packed with stamina. That is the one thing he does have going for him. We would like to see him rate a little if possible, but looked relaxed in his allowance win at Gulfstream Park in his last, and that's a positive if he going to get the distance. Zito is also a two-time Derby winning trainer. Tampa Bay Derby is next up in what looks to be another walkover. He will try to get to the Derby undefeated.




2)Pyro- Pulpit - Wild Vision - By Wild Again, Homebred, February (S/R) -Pyro has done everything right so far as a 3 year old. Winner of the Risen Star GIII and Louisiana Derby GII has made a claim to the top 3 year old in the country. Showed a bit of a new dimension by being closer to the pace in the Louisiana Derby then in his other races and that is a good thing. So far, he has progressed nicely as a 3 year old. As a February foal also has an age advantage, as he is a little further along then others at this point. Will need to show he can get to War Pass down the road as he has beaten by him 3 times. As the distances continue to get longer, he looks like he will close the gap. Must prove he is fast enough. And another plus is the fact he broke his maiden in his first race at Churchill Downs. He has certainly looked good in his last two wins, but its adios to the Fairgrounds. Blue Grass Stakes last and final race before the trip to The Kentucky Derby.




3)El Gato Malo- El Corredor - One Bad Cat - By Mountain Cat, Purchase Price $95,000 February (E/S)El Gato Malo is a versatile speedy California horse who has never run poorly as of yet. Also broke a track record The San Rafael GIII at a mile over the new speed favoring Santa Anita surface. He ran a game second to Colonel John in the Sham GIII. West Point Stable has been on a hot streak lately and it looks like that roll will continue. In his four career races, he has shown three dimensions in his running style, as he has shown the ability to go the front, stalk and rally. He has yet to try a dirt track, so that is something that could be an issue, another February foal who is further ahead in the maturation process at this point then others. A concern is his breeding. Getting the distance might be an issue as the distances increase. For those wondering what his name means, it translates to The Bad Cat in English.




4) Colonel John -Tiznow - Sweet Damsel - By Turkoman March, Homebred, (S/R) Winstar is back again with another Derby threat in Colonel John. He was game in victory in his last over El Gato Malo in the Sham GIII. A son of Tiznow who himself was a bit of a late bloomer; so far Colonel John is doing quite well. He should do well in the distance department. He has a stalk/rally type running style. He is another horse who has yet to encounter a dirt track. At this point one does not know how much of a factor this will be for the synthetic surfaces horses. No real reason to think he will not run well on it, but the fact remains he has not yet.




5) Denis of Cork-Harlan's Holiday - Unbridled Girl - By Unbridled, Purchase Price $120,000, February (R)The highly regarded and undefeated Denis of Cork debuts at number 5. He has demonstrated a strong late kick in all three of his win so far. He was able to come some 18 lengths out in winning the Southwest Stakes GIII, which is not the easiest of tasks at Oaklawn Park. He continued to draw off after getting to the leader. The lightly raced colt will need to show he can improve off his last efforts. He could regress, or he could improve. Has the benefit of being a February foal and has solid distance credentials. He might have the most upside of any horse yet with only three career starts. Original plans were to go The Rebel GII, but that has been nixed. He is being pointed to either The Wood Memorial or Illinois Derby. He is another who is a winner over the Churchill Downs strip, broke his maiden there at first asking. As the distances get longer will that explosive late kick be as effective. We think it can be.




6)Cool Coal Man-Mineshaft - Coral Sea - By Rubiano, Purchase Price $200,000, May (S/R/E)Cool Coal Man the Fountain Of Youth GII winner is the second of 3 Nick Zitos trained horses in the ThoroughbredZone top 12. He is a late May foal and he is one of the furthest behind in the maturation process at this point, but as he gets closer to his birth day in May he could be coming into his own. He is also a winner over the Churchill Downs strip. Has raced 7 times, and that is a lot compared to others in the top 12 and is also a winner at a mile and an eighth at Gulfstream, but he will need to continue to improve, Of course the question with him as others will be is he fast enough, getting a mile and a quarter looks to be with in his grasp. He is a stalker type runner who can even run on the lead if need be. There are not too many trainers better and getting horses ready to run their best the first Saturday in May then Nick Zito




7)Fierce Wind-Dixie Union - Post Parade - By A.P. Indy, Purchase Price $90,000 (S/R)The third Nick Zito trainee in the top 12 is Fierce Win. He has won three straight including a gutsy win in the Sam Davis fending off Big Truck and Smooth Air. He has shown the ability to win running on the lead in his last three races. The Sam Davis was his best win to date, but will have to show he can improve off the race. A winner at a mile and eighth and has solid breeding for going a mile and a quarter. He will have to show he is faster as he did drift a bit in the Sam Davis. Still early and he gets the benefit of the doubt at this point and looks to be horse on the move forward.




8)Visionaire- Grand Slam - Scarlet Tango - By French Deputy, Purchase Price $300,000, February (R)The Gotham winner came from way back to nail Texas Wildcatter at the wire in a long sustained drive. He was the only horse doing any real running there late. He also ran an admirable third in the Risen Star behind Pyro and Z Fortune. Trained by Michael Matz of Barbaro fame has another Derby candidate in Visionaire.His breeding sort of indicates that a 1 ¼ might not be his forte, but has so far done well winning at a mile and the mile and sixteenth Gotham with long rallies. He will have to stretch his rallying style to a mile and an eighth and a mile and a quarter for him to be a legitimate threat. The way he was going looked like he should be okay. As is the biggest question as with most is if he is fast enough. He is on the right track with Matz guiding the ship.




9) Elysium Fields- El Prado - Dreams - By Silver Hawk, Purchase Price $275,000 (S/R) Barclay Tagg pops up with the Fountain of Youth runner up Elysium Fields. He ran quiet well as he almost got to Cool Coal Man in the Fountain of Youth GII. He was able run closer to the pace then he has shown in his previous races where he rallied from further back to get into contention. Since the addition of blinkers, he has been closer to the leaders in his races. Bred more for grass then dirt, but has not any issues with the dirt. This one is on the improve with a trainer who knows how to get the most out of his young horses. It looks like Tagg could have a Derby candidate here in Elysium Fields if this one continues to move forward. And if things do not work out, he will be sure to try the weeds down the road. Florida Derby next.




10)Big Brown -Boundary - Mien - By Nureyev, Purchase Price $60,000, (E)The hottest horse on the trail so far is this guy, Big Brown. He has smashed his competition in his two starts of his career although they were widely spaced apart. His last was a blockbuster effort at Gulfstream Park where he earned a big speed figure winning by 12 3/4 lengths winning easily as he never really was asked for much.IEAH Stables thought very highly of this colt and forked over almost 2 million dollars for him after his maiden win. He is bred for grass, and that was the plan, but the big win on dirt has made him a hot prospect for the Kentucky Derby. Dick Dutrow is his trainer, but has had limited success with younger horses, however he might have a real runner here if can keep him together. He has been plagued by quarter cracks, thus only two lifetime starts. His feet could become and issue again as quarter cracks can be a chronic issue. If he overcomes this, and moves forward, he could make some big noise down the road. Connections will take a crack at the Florida Derby next.




11) Z Fortune –Siphon - Fortunate Faith - By Fortunate Prospect, Purchase Price $80,000, March (S/R) The New York bred Z Fortune debuts in the 11 spot in the ThoroughbredZones Top 12. He was the winner of Lecomte GIII and runner up to his stable mate Pyro in the Risen Star GII. Pyro who blasted his way home in that race passed him. He did finish ahead of Visionaire who is our number 8 horse. He has not seen action since. Its apparent Steve Assmussen does not want to run the two against each other until the Derby if they both make it. Z Fortune the son of the great Siphon and a graded Stakes winning dam has some quality breeding that suggests he will like it going longer. We will need to see some more from him as to weather or not he is up to the task. He does have some things we like. The breeding and the class are two of them. He is expected to contest The Rebel GII at Oaklawn this Saturday.




12) Smooth Air -Smooth Jazz - Air France- By French Deputy, (S/E) Rounding the first Derby Top 12 is the speedy Smooth Jazz. He could be viewed as a bit of a stretch here, but it is early and this group will pan itself out, as we get closer to the big day. He has run solid every time he has been out there. Smooth Jazz beat the highly regarded Hey Byrn in his debut at Calder and won the 7 furlong Hutcheson GII over a sloppy Gulfstream Park strip in a pretty good time. He then ran third in his latest race to Fierce Wind in the Sam Davis. Trainer Benny Stutts, Jr is optimistic about his colt. He will aim him to the March 29th Florida Derby GII which would be the real acid test as to weather this one will like the distance as that remains his biggest concern right now.








Others That Could Be Heard From



Georgie Boy the Del Mar Futurity GI winner and San Vincente GII winner, San Felipe this Saturday, , Tale of Ekati had a bad break in the Louisiana Derby and could very well rebound, bred wonderfully, Tomicito kicked butt in Peru against older. Florida Derby is the target. Speedy Bob Black Jack will try to stretch his speed out in the San Felipe Saturday, Yankee Bravo was making some ground up in his first try on dirt in the Louisiana Derby GII, Giant Moon disappointed in the Gotham, will need to step it up, Texas Wildcatter just missed staying on to win Gotham, will need to show he is a stayer, Court Vision a distant third in the Fountain of Youth GII, will need to kick it up, Go Go Shoot if they opt to stretch this one out has raw speed, Bayshore possible next



Here Is How My Top Derby Picks Have Done Over The Past 10 Years


2007 Hard Spun 2nd
2006 Barbaro 1st
2005 Afleet Alex 3rd
2004 Smarty Jones 1st
2003 Empire Maker 2nd
2002 Buddha Scratched Morning Of Derby
2001 Point Given 5th
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 1st
1999 Cat Thief 3rd
1998 Real Quiet 1st

[Stevie Belmont]

Updated For Week Of March 17th...


1) (2) Pyro- Pulpit - Wild Vision - By Wild Again, Homebred, February (S/R) - Pyrotakes over the number 1 spot on our Derby 12. He snags the top spot after our 1st week as War Pass threw a big dud in the Tampa Bay Derby. Therefore, Pyro is the new leader of the pack. He has done everything right so far as a 3 year old. Winner of the Risen Star GII and Louisiana Derby GII has made a claim to the top 3 year old in the country. Showed a bit of a new dimension by being closer to the pace in the Louisiana Derby then in his other races and that is a good thing. So far, he has progressed nicely as a 3 year old. As a February foal also has an age advantage, as he is a little further along then others at this point. As the distances continue to get longer, he looks like he will not have an issue with it. Must prove he is fast enough. In addition, another plus is the fact he broke his maiden in his first race at Churchill Downs. He has certainly looked good in his last two wins, but it is adios to the Fairgrounds. Blue Grass Stakes last and final race before the trip to The Kentucky Derby.
2 (5) Denis of Cork - Harlan's Holiday - Unbridled Girl - By Unbridled, Purchase Price $120,000, February (R) Denis Of Cork did not even race this week, but moves up to number 2. Sierra Sun and Liberty Bull winners of the Rebel GII and The Winstar Derby this past weekend, both of whom he defeated in the Southwest Stakes. Their wins move his stock up, proving so far that Denis of Cork has defeated two quality horses. In particular, the way Sierra Sunset won the Rebel; he looked solid in doing so. He has demonstrated a strong late kick in all three of his win so far. He was able to come some 18 lengths out in winning the Southwest Stakes GIII, which is not the easiest of tasks at Oaklawn Park. He continued to draw off after getting to the leader. The lightly raced colt will need to show he can improve off his last efforts. He could regress, or he could improve. Has the benefit of being a February foal and has solid distance credentials. He might have the most upside of any horse yet with only three career starts. Original plans were to go The Rebel GII, but that has been nixed. He is being pointed to the Wood Memorial. He is another who is a winner over the Churchill Downs strip, broke his maiden there at first asking. As the distances get longer will that explosive late kick be as effective. We think it can be.

3) (-) Georgie Boy- Tribal Rule – Ippodamia By Peterhof, Homebred, The California bredGeorgie Boygallops all the way to the number 3 spot after not being on the original Derby 12. His first try at 2 turns was a smashing success. The GI Del Mar Futurity winner proved he is a bit more then a long striding sprinter. He was impressive Saturday in winning the San Felipe GII. The final time was in 1:42.35 on the synthetic surface. He was able to swing wide, catch Gayego, and go by him with his big ground-covering stride. He looked quiet strong as he past the wire in what is so far one of the most impressive prep wins I have seen to date. Gayego looked strong, but Georgie Boy just gobbled up the ground with his big stride and went by him. The most promising part of the win was the way he galloped out. On top of all this, Georgie Boy failed to change leads at any point. His breeding is not as flashy as some of the others, but he looked sharp in victory and going longer looks to be well with in his realm. The Santa Anita Derby or The Arkansas Derby are possible for his final start. A trip over a dirt surface would be a plus.



4) (3) El Gato Malo - El Corredor - One Bad Cat - By Mountain Cat, Purchase Price $95,000 February (E/S) El Gato Malo is a versatile speedy California horse who has never run poorly as of yet. Also broke a track record The San Rafael GIII at a mile over the new speed favoring Santa Anita surface. He ran a game second to Colonel John in the Sham GIII. West Point Stable has been on a hot streak lately and it looks like that roll will continue. In his four career races, he has shown three dimensions in his running style, as he has shown the ability to go the front, stalk and rally. He has yet to try a dirt track, so that is something that could be an issue, another February foal who is further ahead in the maturation process at this point then others. A concern is his breeding. Getting the distance might be an issue as the distances increase. For those wondering what his name means, it translates to bad cat in English.

5(4) Colonel John -Tiznow - Sweet Damsel - By Turkoman March, Homebred, (S/R) Winstar is back again with another Derby threat in Colonel John. He was game in victory in his last over El Gato Malo in the Sham GIII. A son of Tiznow who himself was a bit of a late bloomer; so far Colonel John is doing quite well. He should do well in the distance department. He has a stalk/rally type running style. He is another horse who has yet to encounter a dirt track. At this point one does not know how much of a factor this will be for the synthetic surfaces horses. No real reason to think he will not run well on it, but the fact remains he has not yet.

6)(6) Cool Coal Man - Mineshaft - Coral Sea - By Rubiano, Purchase Price $200,000, May (S/R/E) Cool Coal Man the Fountain Of Youth GII winner is the second of 3 Nick Zitos trained horses in the ThoroughbredZone top 12. He is a late May foal and he is one of the furthest behind in the maturation process at this point, but as he gets closer to his birth day in May he could be coming into his own. He is also a winner over the Churchill Downs strip. Has raced 7 times, and that is a lot compared to others in the top 12 and is also a winner at a mile and an eighth at Gulfstream, but he will need to continue to improve, Of course the question with him as others will be is he fast enough, getting a mile and a quarter looks to be with in his grasp. He is a stalker type runner who can even run on the lead if need be. There are not too many trainers better and getting horses ready to run their best the first Saturday in May then Nick Zito

7)(7) Fierce Wind - Dixie Union - Post Parade - By A.P. Indy, Purchase Price $90,000 (S/R) The third Nick Zito trainee in the top 12 is Fierce Win. He has won three straight including a gutsy win in the Sam Davis fending off Big Truck and Smooth Air. He has shown the ability to win running on the lead in his last three races. The Sam Davis was his best win to date, but will have to show he can improve off the race. A winner at a mile and eighth and has solid breeding for going a mile and a quarter. He will have to show he is faster as he did drift a bit in the Sam Davis. Still early and he gets the benefit of the doubt at this point and looks to be horse on the move forward.

8)(-) Big Truck- Hook And Ladder – Just A Ginny By Go For Gin, (S) Big Truck pulled off the big upset outlasting the game Atoned in the Tampa Bay Derby GIII on Saturday, although the bigger story of that race was the dreadful effort put fourth by War Pass. Big Truck has put back-to-back efforts together at Tampa Bay Downs, finishing second to Fierce Wind in The Sam Davis. Big Truck is the second of two Barclay Tagg horses to be in the Derby 12, the other being Elysium Fields. Big Trucks win was a game effort refusing to let Atoned get the win. He covered the 1 1/16 in 1:44.25 over a fast strip. Big Truck will look to stretch out in his upcoming race. How far he will be willing to go is not known at this point. His sire Hook and Ladder was a fine sprinter, but his dam sire Go for Gin was a Kentucky Derby winner. Horse has made a move in the right direction.

9) (8) Visionaire - Grand Slam - Scarlet Tango - By French Deputy, Purchase Price $300,000, February (R) The Gotham winner came from way back to nail Texas Wildcatter at the wire in a long sustained drive. He was the only horse doing any real running there late. He also ran an admirable third in the Risen Star behind Pyro and Z Fortune. Trained by Michael Matz of Barbaro fame has another Derby candidate in Visionaire. His breeding sort of indicates that a 1 ¼ might not be his forte, but has so far done well winning at a mile and the mile and sixteenth Gotham with long rallies. He will have to stretch his rallying style to a mile and an eighth and a mile and a quarter for him to be a legitimate threat. The way he was going looked like he should be okay. As is the biggest question as with most is if he is fast enough. He is on the right track with Matz guiding the ship.

10)(9) Elysium Fields - El Prado - Dreams - By Silver Hawk, Purchase Price $275,000 (S/R) Barclay Tagg pops up with the Fountain of Youth runner up Elysium Fields. He ran quiet well as he almost got to Cool Coal Man in the Fountain of Youth GII. He was able run closer to the pace then he has shown in his previous races where he rallied from further back to get into contention. Since the addition of blinkers, he has been closer to the leaders in his races. Bred more for grass then dirt, but has not any issues with the dirt. This one is on the improve with a trainer who knows how to get the most out of his young horses. It looks like Tagg could have a Derby candidate here in Elysium Fields if this one continues to move forward. And if things do not work out, he will be sure to try the weeds down the road. Florida Derby next.

11) (-) Sierra Sunset – Bertrando – Toot Sweet By Pirates Bounty, Purchase Price $40,000, February (S) Another new face on our list is this guy, Sierra Sunset. Denis of Cork in the Southwest Stakes back in February passed Sierra Sunset, however Denis of Cork skipped the Rebel and Sierra Sunset was the big benefactor of that move. Sierra Sunset settled nicely early and drove well clear in winning the GII Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on Saturday March 15th. The final time for the 1 1/16 race was 1:44.88. Sierra Sunset has already run 11 times making him the most experienced runners so far of this years Derby hopefuls on out list. He is another California bred and has developed nicely over the late winter and spring so far. How good is he is something we will have to find out yet? Denis of Cork is our number 2 horse and he finished behind him in the Southwest Stakes. Sierra Sunset seems to be getting better. Sierra Sunset will aim for the Arkansas Derby as his final prep before the Kentucky Derby.

12) Big Brown - Boundary - Mien - By Nureyev, Purchase Price $60,000, (E) The hottest horse on the trail so far is this guy, Big Brown. He has smashed his competition in his two starts of his career although they were widely spaced apart. His last was a blockbuster effort at Gulfstream Park where he earned a big speed figure winning by 12 3/4 lengths winning easily as he never really was asked for much. IEAH Stables thought very highly of this colt and forked over almost 2 million dollars for him after his maiden win. He is bred for grass, and that was the plan, but the big win on dirt has made him a hot prospect for the Kentucky Derby. Dick Dutrow is his trainer, but has had limited success with younger horses, however he might have a real runner here if can keep him together. He has been plagued by quarter cracks, thus only two lifetime starts. His feet could become and issue again as quarter cracks can be a chronic issue. If he overcomes this, and moves forward, he could make some big noise down the road. Connections will take a crack at the Florida Derby next.

13) (-) Atoned- Repent – Amidst By Icecapade- (S) Dogwood Stables We wanted to get Atoned into the top 12 somehow, so we added one spot this week, Atoned debuts at number 13 and could be higher, and in time could very move up even more if he can progress over the next few weeks. He came off the bench to run a big race in the Tampa Bay Derby GIII finishing second to Big Truck. Atoned who had not raced since finishing second in the Remsen in November to Court Vision. The break had no ill effects as he ran a strong race. His grandsire Icecapade is by the legendary Nearctic who is bythe legendary Nearco. Atoned has regal blood for sure. The question might be how well will he run next time after such a big effort off the layoff? We think giving the proper time off and the foundation he has as a two year old he should be able to move forward off this effort.



Off The Derby 12

War Pass goes from the top dog not in the Derby 12. Hewas dismal Saturday in the Tampa Derby finishing a disappointing last, must rebound in Wood big time to be considered a factor, He’s gone for now, but might not be forgotten if he can bounce back, and he very well could, Smooth Air-Others with big efforts knock him out, Z Fortune did not run as well as some thought in the Southwest.

Others That Could Be Heard From

Gayego ran a solid second to Georgie Boy in the San Felipe, Tale of Ekati had a bad break in the Louisiana Derby and could very well rebound, bred wonderfully, Tomicito kicked butt in Peru against older. Florida Derby is the target. Speedy Bob Black Jack Ran decent in the San Felipe, Yankee Bravo was making some ground up in his first try on dirt in the Louisiana Derby GII, Giant Moon disappointed in the Gotham, will need to step it up, Liberty Bull Took the Winstar Derby at Sunland Park, finished behind Denis of Cork in Southwest, Texas Wildcatter just missed staying on to win Gotham, will need to show he is a stayer, Court Vision a distant third in the Fountain of Youth GII, will need to kick it up, War Pass Has to bounce back with a big effort in the Wood Memorial, Z Fortune-Will have to bounce back after poor Rebel effort, Go Go Shoot if they opt to stretch this one out has raw speed, Bayshore possible next

[Stevie Belmont]

he ThoroughbredZone Derby Top 12

Week of March 23rd

Something new this year, we have listed in order, Breeding, Original Purchase Price, Month of Birth and Running style E-Early Speed, S-Stalker, R-Rally


Sierra Sunset off due a fractured ankle..A little blurb as who, what, when and why the dud tossed at Tampa by War Pass.

1) (2) Pyro- Pulpit - Wild Vision - By Wild Again, Homebred, February (S/R) - Pyrotakes over the number 1 spot on our Derby 12. He snags the top spot after our 1st week as War Pass threw a big dud in the Tampa Bay Derby. Therefore, Pyro is the new leader of the pack. He has done everything right so far as a 3 year old. Winner of the Risen Star GII and Louisiana Derby GII has made a claim to the top 3 year old in the country. Showed a bit of a new dimension by being closer to the pace in the Louisiana Derby then in his other races and that is a good thing. So far, he has progressed nicely as a 3 year old. As a February foal also has an age advantage, as he is a little further along then others at this point. As the distances continue to get longer, he looks like he will not have an issue with it. Must prove he is fast enough. In addition, another plus is the fact he broke his maiden in his first race at Churchill Downs. He has certainly looked good in his last two wins, but it is adios to the Fairgrounds. Blue Grass Stakes last and final race before the trip to The Kentucky Derby.

2 (5) Denis of Cork - Harlan's Holiday - Unbridled Girl - By Unbridled, Purchase Price $120,000, February (R) Denis Of Cork did not even race this week, but moves up to number 2. Sierra Sun and Liberty Bull winners of the Rebel GII and The Winstar Derby this past weekend, both of whom he defeated in the Southwest Stakes. Their wins move his stock up, proving so far that Denis of Cork has defeated two quality horses. In particular, the way Sierra Sunset won the Rebel; he looked solid in doing so. He has demonstrated a strong late kick in all three of his win so far. He was able to come some 18 lengths out in winning the Southwest Stakes GIII, which is not the easiest of tasks at Oaklawn Park. He continued to draw off after getting to the leader. The lightly raced colt will need to show he can improve off his last efforts. He could regress, or he could improve. Has the benefit of being a February foal and has solid distance credentials. He might have the most upside of any horse yet with only three career starts. Original plans were to go The Rebel GII, but that has been nixed. He is being pointed to the Wood Memorial. He is another who is a winner over the Churchill Downs strip, broke his maiden there at first asking. As the distances get longer will that explosive late kick be as effective. We think it can be.

3) (-) Georgie Boy- Tribal Rule – Ippodamia By Peterhof, Hombred, The California bredGeorgie Boygallops all the way to the number 3 spot after not being on the original Derby 12. His first try at 2 turns was a smashing success. The GI Del Mar Futurity winner proved he is a bit more then a long striding sprinter. He was impressive Saturday in winning the San Felipe GII. The final time was in 1:42.35 on the synthetic surface. He was able to swing wide, catch Gayego, and go by him with his big ground-covering stride. He looked quiet strong as he past the wire in what is so far one of the most impressive prep wins I have seen to date. Gayego looked strong, but Georgie Boy just gobbled up the ground with his big stride and went by him. The most promising part of the win was the way he galloped out. On top of all this, Georgie Boy failed to change leads at any point. His breeding is not as flashy as some of the others, but he looked sharp in victory and going longer looks to be well with in his realm. The Santa Anita Derby or The Arkansas Derby are possible for his final start. A trip over a dirt surface would be a plus.

4) (3) El Gato Malo - El Corredor - One Bad Cat - By Mountain Cat, Purchase Price $95,000 February (E/S) El Gato Malo is a versatile speedy California horse who has never run poorly as of yet. Also broke a track record The San Rafael GIII at a mile over the new speed favoring Santa Anita surface. He ran a game second to Colonel John in the Sham GIII. West Point Stable has been on a hot streak lately and it looks like that roll will continue. In his four career races, he has shown three dimensions in his running style, as he has shown the ability to go the front, stalk and rally. He has yet to try a dirt track, so that is something that could be an issue, another February foal who is further ahead in the maturation process at this point then others. A concern is his breeding. Getting the distance might be an issue as the distances increase. For those wondering what his name means, it translates to bad cat in English.

5(4) Colonel John -Tiznow - Sweet Damsel - By Turkoman March, Homebred, (S/R) Winstar is back again with another Derby threat in Colonel John. He was game in victory in his last over El Gato Malo in the Sham GIII. A son of Tiznow who himself was a bit of a late bloomer; so far Colonel John is doing quite well. He should do well in the distance department. He has a stalk/rally type running style. He is another horse who has yet to encounter a dirt track. At this point one does not know how much of a factor this will be for the synthetic surfaces horses. No real reason to think he will not run well on it, but the fact remains he has not yet.

6)(6) Cool Coal Man - Mineshaft - Coral Sea - By Rubiano, Purchase Price $200,000, May (S/R/E) Cool Coal Man the Fountain Of Youth GII winner is the second of 3 Nick Zitos trained horses in the ThoroughbredZone top 12. He is a late May foal and he is one of the furthest behind in the maturation process at this point, but as he gets closer to his birth day in May he could be coming into his own. He is also a winner over the Churchill Downs strip. Has raced 7 times, and that is a lot compared to others in the top 12 and is also a winner at a mile and an eighth at Gulfstream, but he will need to continue to improve, Of course the question with him as others will be is he fast enough, getting a mile and a quarter looks to be with in his grasp. He is a stalker type runner who can even run on the lead if need be. There are not too many trainers better and getting horses ready to run their best the first Saturday in May then Nick Zito

7)(7) Fierce Wind - Dixie Union - Post Parade - By A.P. Indy, Purchase Price $90,000 (S/R) The third Nick Zito trainee in the top 12 is Fierce Win. He has won three straight including a gutsy win in the Sam Davis fending off Big Truck and Smooth Air. He has shown the ability to win running on the lead in his last three races. The Sam Davis was his best win to date, but will have to show he can improve off the race. A winner at a mile and eighth and has solid breeding for going a mile and a quarter. He will have to show he is faster as he did drift a bit in the Sam Davis. Still early and he gets the benefit of the doubt at this point and looks to be horse on the move forward.

8)(-) Big Truck- Hook And Ladder – Just A Ginny By Go For Gin, (S) Big Truck pulled off the big upset outlasting the game Atoned in the Tampa Bay Derby GIII on Saturday, although the bigger story of that race was the dreadful effort put fourth by War Pass. Big Truck has put back-to-back efforts together at Tampa Bay Downs, finishing second to Fierce Wind in The Sam Davis. Big Truck is the second of two Barclay Tagg horses to be in the Derby 12, the other being Elysium Fields. Big Trucks win was a game effort refusing to let Atoned get the win. He covered the 1 1/16 in 1:44.25 over a fast strip. Big Truck will look to stretch out in his upcoming race. How far he will be willing to go is not known at this point. His sire Hook and Ladder was a fine sprinter, but his dam sire Go for Gin was a Kentucky Derby winner. Horse has made a move in the right direction.

9) (8) Visionaire - Grand Slam - Scarlet Tango - By French Deputy, Purchase Price $300,000, February (R) The Gotham winner came from way back to nail Texas Wildcatter at the wire in a long sustained drive. He was the only horse doing any real running there late. He also ran an admirable third in the Risen Star behind Pyro and Z Fortune. Trained by Michael Matz of Barbaro fame has another Derby candidate in Visionaire. His breeding sort of indicates that a 1 ¼ might not be his forte, but has so far done well winning at a mile and the mile and sixteenth Gotham with long rallies. He will have to stretch his rallying style to a mile and an eighth and a mile and a quarter for him to be a legitimate threat. The way he was going looked like he should be okay. As is the biggest question as with most is if he is fast enough. He is on the right track with Matz guiding the ship.

10)(9) Elysium Fields - El Prado - Dreams - By Silver Hawk, Purchase Price $275,000 (S/R) Barclay Tagg pops up with the Fountain of Youth runner up Elysium Fields. He ran quiet well as he almost got to Cool Coal Man in the Fountain of Youth GII. He was able run closer to the pace then he has shown in his previous races where he rallied from further back to get into contention. Since the addition of blinkers, he has been closer to the leaders in his races. Bred more for grass then dirt, but has not any issues with the dirt. This one is on the improve with a trainer who knows how to get the most out of his young horses. It looks like Tagg could have a Derby candidate here in Elysium Fields if this one continues to move forward. And if things do not work out, he will be sure to try the weeds down the road. Florida Derby next.

11) 12) Big Brown - Boundary - Mien - By Nureyev, Purchase Price $60,000, (E) The hottest horse on the trail so far is this guy, Big Brown. He has smashed his competition in his two starts of his career although they were widely spaced apart. His last was a blockbuster effort at Gulfstream Park where he earned a big speed figure winning by 12 3/4 lengths winning easily as he never really was asked for much. IEAH Stables thought very highly of this colt and forked over almost 2 million dollars for him after his maiden win. He is bred for grass, and that was the plan, but the big win on dirt has made him a hot prospect for the Kentucky Derby. Dick Dutrow is his trainer, but has had limited success with younger horses, however he might have a real runner here if can keep him together. He has been plagued by quarter cracks, thus only two lifetime starts. His feet could become and issue again as quarter cracks can be a chronic issue. If he overcomes this, and moves forward, he could make some big noise down the road. Connections will take a crack at the Florida Derby next.

12) (13) Atoned- Repent – Amidst By Icecapade- (S) Dogwood Stables We wanted to get Atoned into the top 12 somehow, so we added one spot this week, Atoned debuts at number 13 and could be higher, and in time could very move up even more if he can progress over the next few weeks. He came off the bench to run a big race in the Tampa Bay Derby GIII finishing second to Big Truck. Atoned who had not raced since finishing second in the Remsen in November to Court Vision. The break had no ill effects as he ran a strong race. His grandsire Icecapade is by the legendary Nearctic who is bythe legendary Nearco. Atoned has regal blood for sure. The question might be how well will he run next time after such a big effort off the layoff? We think giving the proper time off and the foundation he has as a two year old he should be able to move forward off this effort.



Will The Real War Pass Show Up?

As we know, War Pass ran bad in the Tampa Bay Derby. Many have written off this horse, but I think he deserves another opportunity to turn it around. Many horses have run bad races, only to return with a splendid effort. No real answers as to why he ran so poorly at Tampa. One would have to think getting pinched at the beginning of the race was a the biggest attributing factor, but it did not seem that he was banged all that hard. What is apparent it took him right out of his game for the first time in his short race career. He became the hunter, instead of the hunted. He tried to keep up but toiled finishing last in a field of 7.

War Emblem had a similar fate in the Belmont Stakes when stumbling out of the gate. He chased into contention before flatting out. He race was lossed at the start. There was speculation early in the week he had a fever, but connections adamantly said the horse was 100% for race and they would have not put him in there if he were not. The only real way to know was to be in the barn. I would find it hard to believe myself. Anyway, War Pass will try to turn it around in the Wood Memorial.

We can chalk up the poor effort to one of two things. He was not 100% for whatever reason. Some might even want to blame the track, but im not certain how it could make him run that poorly. And the other reason is plain and simple as what happened to War Emblem in the Belmont Stakes. He could not get to the lead, thus his chances all but eliminated. After the pinch, he was never able to settle either. He was faced with a situation he had never been in before. The situation led to the bad effort. It would be unwise for a horse who was atop many polls at the top Derby prospect to be totally forgotten as if a has been. I would give him another chance, all be it a tad more reluctant after the poor effort. He could bounce right back, but the doubts do linger.



Others That Could Be Heard From

Adriano winner of the Lane’s End at Turfway sticks his nose in the Derby mix. Interesting horse, but never ran a decent race on dirt. Gayego ran a solid second to Georgie Boy in the San Felipe, Tale of Ekati had a bad break in the Louisiana Derby and could very well rebound, bred wonderfully, Tomicito kicked butt in Peru against older. Florida Derby is the target.Tomicito continues to work very fast at Palm Meadows, encouraging everyone around him. We will see if he for real or a fraud. The way he is working is quite promising. Speedy Bob Black Jack Ran decent in the San Felipe, , Yankee Bravo was making some ground up in his first try on dirt in the Louisiana Derby GII, Giant Moon disappointed in the Gotham, will need to step it up, Liberty Bull Took the Winstar Derby at Sunland Park, finished behinf Denis of Cork in Southwest, Texas Wildcatter just missed staying on to win Gotham, will need to show he is a stayer, Court Vision a distant third in the Fountain of Youth GII, will need to kick it up,War Pass Has to bounce back with a big effort in the Wood Memorial, Z Fortune-Will have to bounce back after poor Rebel effort, Go Go Shoot if they opt to stretch this one out has raw speed, Bayshore possible next

[Stevie Belmont]

The ThoroughbredZone Derby Top 12

Week of March 30 th

Something new this year, we have listed in order, Breeding, Original Purchase Price, Month of Birth and Running style E-Early Speed, S-Stalker, R-Rally

Big Brown takes over the number one Spot. War Pass get back on at number 8 and Smooth Air is back at number 12. Fierce Wind and Elysium Fields drop off.

1) 11) Big Brown - Boundary - Mien - By Nureyev, Purchase Price $60,000, (E) Big Brown jumps right up from number 11 to number 1. He equaled the largest jump in the ThoroughbredZones derby 12 by Curlin last year who went from 12 to 2 after his blockbuster Arkansas Derby. He became the first horse to win from post number 12 at the new Gulfstream Park. The much-hyped Big Brown lived up to expectations as he buried the Florida Derby field. He was fast out of the gate and was in the lead before you blinked. He is a large long striding horse. He moves fast on his own. He was galloping and yet ripping quick fractions. It was by far the best group he had seen and he handled it with ease. Kent just let him go past the finish line gallop out. He went way past the 1 ¼ strongly. That was the most impressive part about it. There is no doubt now that the hype and confidence the Dutrow crew was yapping about is real. The victory will make him the probable favorite in the Derby. Of course, that is if he makes it. The foot issue to me is still very scary and real. Bad feet are bad news. Dutrow had $550 shoes on him yesterday. It makes me wonder how bad the feet are, and when and if a quarter crack could happen again. The win was a dominant, strong effort. The best one I have seen yet. And I do think the horse can rate. He would go into the Derby off only 3 career starts and the seasoning part could come into play, unless he is that good. Curlin was lightly races and ran well last year. And another example was Bellamy Road who ran poorly after a handful of starts. Based on talent he looked good. Big horse, big stride. The feet are the concern. And another thing one would worry about is if he can move forward. I feel he will move forward. . He did not kill himself yesterday. He is still green and a bit goofy. He is still figuring it out. The Derby is looking exciting for the first time.


2) (1) Pyro- Pulpit - Wild Vision - By Wild Again, Homebred, February (S/R) - Pyrotakes over the number 1 spot on our Derby 12. Well he lead for one week, buy Pyro gets dropped a notch after Big Browns blowout win in the Florida Derby. He has done everything right so far as a 3 year old. Winner of the Risen Star GII and Louisiana Derby GII has made a claim to the top 3 year old in the country. Showed a bit of a new dimension by being closer to the pace in the Louisiana Derby then in his other races and that is a good thing. So far, he has progressed nicely as a 3 year old. As a February foal also has an age advantage, as he is a little further along then others at this point. As the distances continue to get longer, he looks like he will not have an issue with it. Must prove he is fast enough. In addition, another plus is the fact he broke his maiden in his first race at Churchill Downs. He has certainly looked good in his last two wins, but it is adios to the Fairgrounds. Blue Grass Stakes last and final race before the trip to The Kentucky Derby.

3 (2) Denis of Cork - Harlan's Holiday - Unbridled Girl - By Unbridled, Purchase Price $120,000, February (R) Denis Of Cork did not even race this week, but moves up to number 2. Sierra Sun and Liberty Bull winners of the Rebel GII and The Winstar Derby this past weekend, both of whom he defeated in the Southwest Stakes. Their wins move his stock up, proving so far that Denis of Cork has defeated two quality horses. In particular, the way Sierra Sunset won the Rebel; he looked solid in doing so. He has demonstrated a strong late kick in all three of his win so far. He was able to come some 18 lengths out in winning the Southwest Stakes GIII, which is not the easiest of tasks at Oaklawn Park. He continued to draw off after getting to the leader. The lightly raced colt will need to show he can improve off his last efforts. He could regress, or he could improve. Has the benefit of being a February foal and has solid distance credentials. He might have the most upside of any horse yet with only three career starts. Original plans were to go The Rebel GII, but that has been nixed. He is being pointed to the Wood Memorial. He is another who is a winner over the Churchill Downs strip, broke his maiden there at first asking. As the distances get longer will that explosive late kick be as effective. We think it can be.

4) 3) Georgie Boy- Tribal Rule – Ippodamia By Peterhof, Hombred, The California bredGeorgie Boygallops all the way to the number 3 spot after not being on the original Derby 12. His first try at 2 turns was a smashing success. The GI Del Mar Futurity winner proved he is a bit more then a long striding sprinter. He was impressive Saturday in winning the San Felipe GII. The final time was in 1:42.35 on the synthetic surface. He was able to swing wide, catch Gayego, and go by him with his big ground-covering stride. He looked quiet strong as he past the wire in what is so far one of the most impressive prep wins I have seen to date. Gayego looked strong, but Georgie Boy just gobbled up the ground with his big stride and went by him. The most promising part of the win was the way he galloped out. On top of all this, Georgie Boy failed to change leads at any point. His breeding is not as flashy as some of the others, but he looked sharp in victory and going longer looks to be well with in his realm. The Santa Anita Derby next



5) El Gato Malo - El Corredor - One Bad Cat - By Mountain Cat, Purchase Price $95,000 February (E/S) El Gato Malo is a versatile speedy California horse who has never run poorly as of yet. Also broke a track record The San Rafael GIII at a mile over the new speed favoring Santa Anita surface. He ran a game second to Colonel John in the Sham GIII. West Point Stable has been on a hot streak lately and it looks like that roll will continue. In his four career races, he has shown three dimensions in his running style, as he has shown the ability to go the front, stalk and rally. He has yet to try a dirt track, so that is something that could be an issue, another February foal who is further ahead in the maturation process at this point then others. A concern is his breeding. Getting the distance might be an issue as the distances increase. For those wondering what his name means, it translates to bad cat in English.

6) (5) Colonel John -Tiznow - Sweet Damsel - By Turkoman March, Homebred, (S/R) Winstar is back again with another Derby threat in Colonel John. He was game in victory in his last over El Gato Malo in the Sham GIII. A son of Tiznow who himself was a bit of a late bloomer; so far Colonel John is doing quite well. He should do well in the distance department. He has a stalk/rally type running style. He is another horse who has yet to encounter a dirt track. At this point one does not know how much of a factor this will be for the synthetic surfaces horses. No real reason to think he will not run well on it, but the fact remains he has not yet.

7) (6)Cool Coal Man - Mineshaft - Coral Sea - By Rubiano, Purchase Price $200,000, May (S/R/E) Cool Coal Man the Fountain Of Youth GII winner is the second of 3 Nick Zitos trained horses in the ThoroughbredZone top 12. He is a late May foal and he is one of the furthest behind in the maturation process at this point, but as he gets closer to his birth day in May he could be coming into his own. He is also a winner over the Churchill Downs strip. Has raced 7 times, and that is a lot compared to others in the top 12 and is also a winner at a mile and an eighth at Gulfstream, but he will need to continue to improve, Of course the question with him as others will be is he fast enough, getting a mile and a quarter looks to be with in his grasp. He is a stalker type runner who can even run on the lead if need be. There are not too many trainers better and getting horses ready to run their best the first Saturday in May then Nick Zito

8 (-)War Pass-Cherokee Run - Vue - By Mr. Prospector, Purchase Price $180,000, April (E) –Hes back on the ThoroughbredZones Derby 12.The two year old champ has worked well in will lead the Wood Memorial field this Saturday. Poor efforts by others gave War Pass the chance to get back. Will still need to run a strong race on Saturday to make me think he has bounced back. The track should be fast and ready and hopefully War Pass is ready as well. We might just see the old War Pass. And I almost forget. Can he get the distance? Still plenty to prove, but except for one bad race, he has done nothing but win.

9)(8) Big Truck- Hook And Ladder – Just A Ginny By Go For Gin, (S) Big Truck pulled off the big upset outlasting the game Atoned in the Tampa Bay Derby GIII on Saturday, although the bigger story of that race was the dreadful effort put fourth by War Pass. Big Truck has put back-to-back efforts together at Tampa Bay Downs, finishing second to Fierce Wind in The Sam Davis. Big Truck is the second of two Barclay Tagg horses to be in the Derby 12, the other being Elysium Fields. Big Trucks win was a game effort refusing to let Atoned get the win. He covered the 1 1/16 in 1:44.25 over a fast strip. Big Truck will look to stretch out in his upcoming race. How far he will be willing to go is not known at this point. His sire Hook and Ladder was a fine sprinter, but his dam sire Go for Gin was a Kentucky Derby winner. Horse has made a move in the right direction.

10) (9) Visionaire - Grand Slam - Scarlet Tango - By French Deputy, Purchase Price $300,000, February (R) The Gotham winner came from way back to nail Texas Wildcatter at the wire in a long sustained drive. He was the only horse doing any real running there late. He also ran an admirable third in the Risen Star behind Pyro and Z Fortune. Trained by Michael Matz of Barbaro fame has another Derby candidate in Visionaire. His breeding sort of indicates that a 1 ¼ might not be his forte, but has so far done well winning at a mile and the mile and sixteenth Gotham with long rallies. He will have to stretch his rallying style to a mile and an eighth and a mile and a quarter for him to be a legitimate threat. The way he was going looked like he should be okay. As is the biggest question as with most is if he is fast enough. He is on the right track with Matz guiding the ship.

11) (12) Atoned- Repent – Amidst By Icecapade- (S) Dogwood Stables We wanted to get Atoned into the top 12 somehow, so we added one spot this week, Atoned debuts at number 13 and could be higher, and in time could very move up even more if he can progress over the next few weeks. He came off the bench to run a big race in the Tampa Bay Derby GIII finishing second to Big Truck. Atoned who had not raced since finishing second in the Remsen in November to Court Vision. The break had no ill effects as he ran a strong race. His grandsire Icecapade is by the legendary Nearctic who is bythe legendary Nearco. Atoned has regal blood for sure. The question might be how well will he run next time after such a big effort off the layoff? We think giving the proper time off and the foundation he has as a two year old he should be able to move forward off this effort.

12 (-) Smooth Air- Smooth Jazz - Air France- By French Deputy, (S/E)He debuted in our first ThoroughbredZone Derby 12 at number 12 after winning the Hutcheson GII. And after running second to Big Brown yesterday pops back up at number 12. He was the only other horse in the picture when Big Brown hit the wire. He was no match for him, but kept up the best he could as the others toiled. Tomicito could have made if he ran big. He was third, but way back. .Trainer Benny Stutts, Jr is optimistic about his colt. The one thing we know for sure is that Smooth Air stamped his ticket to Kentucky with the second place finish. And there is little doubt that Benny Stutts will run there.







Others That Could Be Heard From

Adriano winner of the Lane’s End at Turfway sticks his nose in the Derby mix. Interesting horse, but never ran a decent race on dirt. Gayego ran a solid second to Georgie Boy in the San Felipe, Tale of Ekati had a bad break in the Louisiana Derby and could very well rebound, bred wonderfully, older. Florida Derby is the around him. We will see if he for real or a fraud. Speedy Bob Black Jack Ran decent in the San , Yankee Bravo was making some ground up in his first try on dirt in the Louisiana Derby GII, Giant Moon disappointed in the Gotham, will need to step it up, Liberty Bull Took the Winstar Derby at Sunland Park, finished behinf Denis of Cork in Southwest, Texas Wildcatter just missed staying on to win Gotham, will need to show he is a stayer, Court Vision a distant third in the Fountain of Youth GII, will need to kick it up,War Pass Has to bounce back with a big effort in the Wood Memorial, Z Fortune-Will have to bounce back after poor Rebel effort, Go Go Shoot if they opt to stretch this one out has raw speed, Bayshore possible next



Off The ThoroughbredZones Derby 12



Fierce Wind chased Big Brown to no avail dropping back and Elysium Fields effort was weak as well.

[Stevie Belmont]

ThoroughbredZones Derby 12 Week of April 7th


Something new this year, we have listed in order, Breeding, Original Purchase Price, Month of Birth and Running style E-Early Speed, S-Stalker, R-Rally

New movers…Colonel John jumps to number 2…Pyro drops to number 3….Cool Coal Man up to number 4… Recapturetheglory debuts at number 5 off the Illinois Derby win….New Tale Of Ekati shows up at number 8 after the Wood win…New Bob Black Jack debuts at number 10 ..War Pass to 11… New Coast Guard at number 12

Next Week Complete Update On All Contenders



1) 1) Big Brown - Boundary - Mien - By Nureyev, Purchase Price $60,000, (E/S) Big Brown stays strong as the number 1 horse. He equaled the largest jump in the ThoroughbredZones derby 12 by Curlin last year who went from 12 to 2 after his blockbuster Arkansas Derby. He became the first horse to win from post number 12 at the new Gulfstream Park. The much-hyped Big Brown lived up to expectations as he buried the Florida Derby field. He was fast out of the gate and was in the lead before you blinked. He is a large long striding horse. He moves fast on his own. He was galloping and yet ripping quick fractions. It was by far the best group he had seen and he handled it with ease. Kent just let him go past the finish line gallop out. He went way past the 1 ¼ strongly. That was the most impressive part about it. There is no doubt now that the hype and confidence the Dutrow crew was yapping about is real. The victory will make him the probable favorite in the Derby. Of course, that is if he makes it. The foot issue to me is still very scary and real. Bad feet are bad news. Dutrow had $550 shoes on him yesterday. It makes me wonder how bad the feet are, and when and if a quarter crack could happen again. The win was a dominant, strong effort. The best one I have seen yet. And I do think the horse can rate. He would go into the Derby off only 3 career starts and the seasoning part could come into play, unless he is that good. Curlin was lightly races and ran well last year. And another example was Bellamy Road who ran poorly after a handful of starts. Based on talent he looked good. Big horse, big stride. The feet are the concern. And another thing one would worry about is if he can move forward. I feel he will move forward. . He did not kill himself yesterday. He is still green and a bit goofy. He is still figuring it out. The Derby is looking exciting for the first time.



2) (6) Colonel John -Tiznow - Sweet Damsel - By Turkoman March, Homebred, (S/R) Colonel John moves into the number 2 spot this week after his big win. In a season that has had a couple of break through efforts, Colonel John stamped himself as a horse that could make a big impact at Louisville on May 3rd. He ran a strong race in the Santa Anita Derby. He encountered a little bit of traffic turning for home and swung wide to get to and pass a stubborn Coast Guard and Bob Black Jack. Colonel John powered through the stretch and galloped well past the mile and a quarter mark in what was a solid effort. So far Big Brown and Colonel John have shown they will have no issue going the distance. He has yet to run a dirt track, but there is nothing to indicate he would not like it, but it’s still something to consider. Colonel John finished strong has shown he can either stalk or rally. This could be Winstars best chance in recent years to win the roses. Kentucky Derby next.




3) (2) Pyro- Pulpit - Wild Vision - By Wild Again, Homebred, February (S/R) - Pyro drops down to number 3. He has done everything right so far as a 3 year old. Winner of the Risen Star GII and Louisiana Derby GII has made a claim to the top 3 year old in the country. Showed a bit of a new dimension by being closer to the pace in the Louisiana Derby then in his other races and that is a good thing. So far, he has progressed nicely as a 3 year old. As a February foal also has an age advantage, as he is a little further along then others at this point. As the distances continue to get longer, he looks like he will not have an issue with it. Must prove he is fast enough. In addition, another plus is the fact he broke his maiden in his first race at Churchill Downs. He has certainly looked good in his last two wins, but it is adios to the Fairgrounds. Blue Grass Stakes last and final race before the trip to The Kentucky Derby.


4) (7) Cool Coal Man - Mineshaft - Coral Sea - By Rubiano, Purchase Price $200,000, May (S/R/E) The Cool Coal Man moves up after a horse he beat won the Illinoius Derby Recapturetheglory. Cool Coal Man the Fountain Of Youth GII winner is the second of 3 Nick Zitos trained horses in the ThoroughbredZone top 12. He is a late May foal and he is one of the furthest behind in the maturation process at this point, but as he gets closer to his birth day in May he could be coming into his own. He is also a winner over the Churchill Downs strip. Has raced 7 times, and that is a lot compared to others in the top 12 and is also a winner at a mile and an eighth at Gulfstream, but he will need to continue to improve, Of course the question with him as others will be is he fast enough, getting a mile and a quarter looks to be with in his grasp. He is a stalker type runner who can even run on the lead if need be. Bluegrass Next




5) (-) Recapturetheglory- Cherokee Run – Cold Awakening – Dehere, Purchase Price $215,000, Feb (E) Recapturetheglory debuts in the number 5 spot on ThoroughbredZones Derby 12. He stamped himself a ticket to the Kentucky Derby after his game front running win the Illinois Derby. Recapturetheglory if anything made himself a certain pace factor in this years Derby. His race was actually not that bad. It looked liked he would be hooked at the top of the stretch and passed by Golden Spikes, but that was not to be the case. He dug down and opened up winning easy. This is the time of the year you want to see horses heading to the Derby run big races, and this was a good win on the front end at a 1 1/8. He will no doubly be pointed to Kentucky after the win.



6) (9) Big Truck- Hook And Ladder – Just A Ginny By Go For Gin, (S) Big Truck goes up to number 6 . Big Truck pulled off the big upset outlasting the game Atoned in the Tampa Bay Derby GIII on Saturday, although the bigger story of that race was the dreadful effort put fourth by War Pass. Big Truck has put back-to-back efforts together at Tampa Bay Downs, finishing second to Fierce Wind in The Sam Davis. Big Truck is the second of two Barclay Tagg horses to be in the Derby 12, the other being Elysium Fields. Big Trucks win was a game effort refusing to let Atoned get the win. He covered the 1 1/16 in 1:44.25 over a fast strip. Big Truck will look to stretch out in his upcoming race. How far he will be willing to go is not known at this point. His sire Hook and Ladder was a fine sprinter, but his dam sire Go for Gin was a Kentucky Derby winner. Horse has made a move in the right direction. Atoned ran poorly in the Illinois Derby a horse he beat out in the Tampa Bay Derby. Others ran poorly so he moves forward.




7) (10) Visionaire - Grand Slam - Scarlet Tango - By French Deputy, Purchase Price $300,000, February (R) Visionaire moves up to number 7 this week. The Gotham winner came from way back to nail Texas Wildcatter at the wire in a long sustained drive. He was the only horse doing any real running there late. He also ran an admirable third in the Risen Star behind Pyro and Z Fortune. Trained by Michael Matz of Barbaro fame has another Derby candidate in Visionaire. His breeding sort of indicates that a 1 ¼ might not be his forte, but has so far done well winning at a mile and the mile and sixteenth Gotham with long rallies. He will have to stretch his rallying style to a mile and an eighth and a mile and a quarter for him to be a legitimate threat. The way he was going looked like he should be okay. As is the biggest question as with most is if he is fast enough. He is on the right track with Matz guiding the ship. Big weekend for this horse.


8) (-)Tale Of Ekati- Tale of the Cat – Silence Beauty- Sunday Silence, March (S/R) We had mentioned how much we liked the breeding on Tale Of Ekati in earlier rankings and the class came to the top in the Wood Memorial. He sat a solid trip in the Wood Memorial and powered by the stubborn War Pass in the final strides of the Wood Memorial. Tale Of Ekati who is out of the Sunday Silence mare Silence Beauty showed, as the distances get longer he will enjoy it. Tale of Etaki however did not break any stopwatches with the win. War Pass began so slow a bit and Tale Of Ekati gutted out the win. Nonetheless he was running and won the race and it’s on to Kentucky. We had indicated his last two races we could throw out due to excuses. Tagg kept him fit and ready to go. This horse will still have to move forward to be a factor in the Derby. And we think he will, but not sure if will be enough. We can see this one as a Belmont Stakes horse for sure. Kentucky Derby next.




9 (12) Smooth Air- Smooth Jazz - Air France- By French Deputy, (S/E) He is up to number 9 this week. He was the only other horse in the picture when Big Brown hit the wire. He was no match for him, but kept up the best he could as the others toiled. Tomicito could have made if he ran big. He was third, but way back. . Trainer Benny Stutts Jr is optimistic about his colt. The one thing we know for sure is that Smooth Air stamped his ticket to Kentucky with the second place finish. And there is little doubt that Benny Stutts will run there.




10) (-)Bob Black Jack- Stormy Jack – Molly’s Prospector – Native Prospector, Purchase Price $ 5,000 (E) The Speedy Bob Black Jack debuts at number 10 after his game second place finish in the Santa Anita Derby. Purchased for the bargain basement price of $5,000 he has earned that several times over. New world record holder at 6 furlongs over the jacked up Santa Anita track. He showed he might be more then a one trick sprinter. He ran a game second place getting passed in the final strides by Colonel John. The effort was enough to get him to Kentucky. He is another that has some solid speed and if anything will be a solid pace factor. Getting a 1 ¼ might be a bit of a stretch. One thing we do know is Colonel John went past him strongly. Bob Black Jack ran a very good race, another who has yet to tip toe in the dirt. A move forward from this one makes his entrance into the Derby interesting.



11 (8)War Pass-Cherokee Run - Vue - By Mr. Prospector, Purchase Price $180,000, April (E) – Drops 3 spots to number 11 this week. Ran a game second in the Wood Memorial before giving it up in the final yards. Distance concerns reared it head in the Wood. A mile and quarter looks to be to far at this point. However the race proved he is not dead just yet. Winning the derby at this point looks a bit much, but his speed is his main asset. Zito could launch a two-pronged attack with Cool Coal Man and War Pass, both of who are owned by Robert Lapenta. We are not sure if they would run War Pass with the intention of thinking they could actually win, or set it up for Cool Coal Man. Either way his entrance makes the race that more interesting.




12)(-) Coast Guard- Stormy Atlantic – Vassar – Royal Academy, Purchase Price $300,000 April (E) Coast Guard Debuts at number 12, one of the more highly priced horses on the trail this year. Led almost the entire way in the Santa Anita Derby in a strong effort. Only beaten by 2 lengths or so. Graded Earnings look to be an issue with this horse, not sure if he has enough, but based on what I saw on the track he is at least worthy of a mention here. He dug in stubbornly late and was only past by Bob Black Jack and Colonel John.He ripped off solid clicks in the effort and still had something left late. And he is another one with zero dirt experience on the resume. We do not know if will get in, but he ran a solid race. A lot better then some of the others that are no longer on the list.



Off the ThoroughbredZones Derby 12

Denis of Cork needed to prove that late kick of his would be as solid going longer and he did not show much if anything. That was a concern early on, and at this point we decided to take him off.Atoned ran a flat Illinois Derby as well, still bred very well El Galo Malo ran an empty Santa Anita Derby. This is the time of the year where flat efforts are not good.

[Stevie Belmont]

These are two horses, not that I overlooked them, but should probably have been mentioned in previous Derby lists as horses to at least watch.

Cowboy Cal-Bluegrass Stakes



Cowboy Cal will run in the Bluegrass Stakes tomorrow at Keeneland in his first crack on a non-turf course. He will run on the Poly surface at Keeneland. Cowboy Cal has been very consistent and strong on turf. He was the winner of the Tropical Park Derby GIII at Calder at a 1 1/8 in a strong effort. He was also the Laurel Futurity winner at back in November. Sounds like a horse we heard of before.



There is no doubt Cowboy Cal has been impressive on the grass, winning by open lengths several times and also defeating large fields in the process. He has shown he has speed on the grass as well, running on the lead or right off it in his races. If he can transfer the form and class he has shown over to the poly track from the turf he stands a very good chance of running a big race tomorrow. A win tomorrow would not be a total shocker if he runs his race. And that would of course make him a Kentucky Derby candidate.



The breeding on this one is solid top and bottom. On top is Giants Causeway out of a Seeking The Gold mare. He has already won at a 1 1/8 and that’s a positive. Pletcher and the crew will give him a shot in the Bluegrass and hope, or expect a big try. And if it all goes well, a hop, skip and a jump to Louisville will be order.





Gayego-Arkansas Derby



Gayego runs in the Arkansas Derby tomorrow as well. The Cali invader was passed in the final yards in the San Felipe GII at a 1 1/16th to the fast closing Georgie Boy. Tomorrow he will stretch out to a 1 1/8th. We are not sure if this guy wants to go that far, but Lobo is willing to find out. And this will also be his first crack at a dirt surface.



He is out of Gilded Time who held the Monmouth Park track record at 6 panels since 1992, until Idiot Proof came along and smashed it in 2007. So speed is one asset Gayego has. Interesting to see how he will adapt to the new surface. We don’t think that should be too much of an issue. However the final furlong might be the bigger question mark. And he will be toting 122 pounds for the first time, 7 pounds more then in the San Felipe GII.





Tomorrow could give us an idea of who will emerge as legitimate Derby threats. Pyro on the other hand stamped his ticket to Kentucky a while ago, so a win for him is not a must. Of course they hope he at least runs a good race, and if he is good enough he can without a top effort tomorrow regarless. From the betting perspective I’m willing to try to take a stand against him. We will know more after tomorrow is over. Hopefully anyway.

[Investorater]

Many thanks,for your appraisal,analysis,and insights.....Most appreciated.

[Stevie Belmont]

Both ran big. Cowboy Cal runs a game 2nd to Monba...Ticket punched to Kentucky. Gayego debuked the distance question and won. His ticket punched to Kentucky. Monba as well heads to Louisville.


These are two horses, not that I overlooked them, but should probably have been mentioned in previous Derby lists as horses to at least watch.

Cowboy Cal-Bluegrass Stakes



Cowboy Cal will run in the Bluegrass Stakes tomorrow at Keeneland in his first crack on a non-turf course. He will run on the Poly surface at Keeneland. Cowboy Cal has been very consistent and strong on turf. He was the winner of the Tropical Park Derby GIII at Calder at a 1 1/8 in a strong effort. He was also the Laurel Futurity winner at back in November. Sounds like a horse we heard of before.



There is no doubt Cowboy Cal has been impressive on the grass, winning by open lengths several times and also defeating large fields in the process. He has shown he has speed on the grass as well, running on the lead or right off it in his races. If he can transfer the form and class he has shown over to the poly track from the turf he stands a very good chance of running a big race tomorrow. A win tomorrow would not be a total shocker if he runs his race. And that would of course make him a Kentucky Derby candidate.



The breeding on this one is solid top and bottom. On top is Giants Causeway out of a Seeking The Gold mare. He has already won at a 1 1/8 and that’s a positive. Pletcher and the crew will give him a shot in the Bluegrass and hope, or expect a big try. And if it all goes well, a hop, skip and a jump to Louisville will be order.





Gayego-Arkansas Derby



Gayego runs in the Arkansas Derby tomorrow as well. The Cali invader was passed in the final yards in the San Felipe GII at a 1 1/16th to the fast closing Georgie Boy. Tomorrow he will stretch out to a 1 1/8th. We are not sure if this guy wants to go that far, but Lobo is willing to find out. And this will also be his first crack at a dirt surface.



He is out of Gilded Time who held the Monmouth Park track record at 6 panels since 1992, until Idiot Proof came along and smashed it in 2007. So speed is one asset Gayego has. Interesting to see how he will adapt to the new surface. We don’t think that should be too much of an issue. However the final furlong might be the bigger question mark. And he will be toting 122 pounds for the first time, 7 pounds more then in the San Felipe GII.





Tomorrow could give us an idea of who will emerge as legitimate Derby threats. Pyro on the other hand stamped his ticket to Kentucky a while ago, so a win for him is not a must. Of course they hope he at least runs a good race, and if he is good enough he can without a top effort tomorrow regarless. From the betting perspective I’m willing to try to take a stand against him. We will know more after tomorrow is over. Hopefully anyway.

[Stevie Belmont]

ThoroughbredZones Derby 12



Week Of April 13





1) 1) Big Brown - Boundary - Mien - By Nureyev, Purchase Price $60,000, (E/S) - Big Brown remains number 1 in the ThoroughbredZone Derby 12. His first work since the Florida derby was this past Saturday where he breezed 5 furlongs in 1:00.53. All went well with the work according to reports. He is scheduled for two more works before heading to Churchill Downs on April 28. We still feel at this point he has had the most impressive Derby prep win of them all in the Florida Derby where he broke from post position 12, gained command quickly and drew clear to win in 1:48 and change. Hey Byrn was soundly defeated by Big Brown in the Florida Derby, who came back to win the Holy Bull Saturday at Gulfstream Park. There are still the lingering questions about his feet. And that will remain a concern right up until post time of the Kentucky Derby. The work was a promising sign that he is doing well. He will enter the Derby with only three career starts and has had a tendency to drift a bit in the stretch. Indicating he is still learning how to do it. In his work on Saturday he did not do this, so that is a plus. He still has room to move forward since he is lightly raced. Some horses might have already run their best race. I do not feel this one has yet. He still has obstacles to overcome. Winning the Derby is not a cakewalk.





2)(2) Colonel John -Tiznow - Sweet Damsel - By Turkoman March, Homebred, (S/R) - Colonel John remains in his number 2 spot after his Santa Anita Derby victory. He was wide and galloped strongly to pass the stubborn and speedy Bob Black Jack. He also galloped out past the 1 ¼ marker with relative ease. Getting the distance looks like it will not be an issue. He is also battle tested. He has won four of his six starts. He also had to work to get by Bob Black Jack and did just that. A similar situation is more then likely in the Kentucky Derby where there will be traffic and ground to make up. Colonel John has the seasoning edge over Big Brown. We do not know if he has the talent edge. In addition, to make matters more confusing is the fact that he still has never run on a dirt surface. Gayego had no problem in his first crack over it winning the Arkansas Derby. We think Colonel John will not dislike the dirt. It is still an unknown commodity for him. A fit and ready Colonel John, and if he takes to the dirt would have to considered a big factor on May 3rd.







3)(9) Gayego – Gilded Time – Devils Lake- Lost Code, Purchase Price $32,000(E/S) Gayego showed he is not a one trick poly pony as he won the Arkansas Derby over a stubborn foe in Z Fortune, who himself ran a very strong race. Gayego came east and won. Gayego sat off snappy splits and made his move turning for home and stayed on to win the Arkansas Derby GII in 1:49.63. It was a gutsy determined win for the colt out of sprint specialist Gilded Time. One of the biggest questions we had about him going into this event was if he could get the distance. He did in the Arkansas Derby. He did benefit from a real good trip along the inside. And that helped his cause in winning. The same trip might not be the case in the Derby. He also showed he does have to be on the lead. He relaxed a couple lengths off the pace before making a move. The question I have is still the same as had before the race. Will he want any part of a 1 ¼? His breeding does not suggest it. Z Fortune passed him in the gallop out. Gayego looked a little tired after the race. Therefore, we have to wonder how much this race took out of him. He did pass the dirt test. That is not really a question anymore. We will soon find out in the Kentucky Derby about the distance concern.





4)8) Tale Of Ekati- Tale of the Cat – Silence Beauty- Sunday Silence, March (S/R) Tale of Ekati jumps up to the number three spot after the poor effort by Pyro. The big thing going for Tale of Ekati is his bottom breeding. Another who we think will have no issues going the 1 ¼. Tale of Ekati won the Wood Memorial with a long sustained drive to pass a tiring War Pass. War Pass set solid fractions before tiring a bit late and Tale of Ekati benefited the most. Tale of Ekati inherited the number 3 spot with Pyro running so poorly in the Bluegrass. We like the breeding. The biggest question with him is this…is he fast enough. The final time of the Wood was not blockbuster. The early fractions were quick, but the final furlong was not as great. Barclay Tagg knows the horse has class and will train him up to the Derby. His style probably fits with the anticipated pace scenario that could very well develop. We will just have to see if he is fast enough to win it all. We think he is going to be a good fit in the Belmont Stakes.





5)(-) Monba – Wavering Monarch – Hamba – Easy Goer, March, Purchase Price $200,000 (S/R) Monba finally gave Todd Pletcher a Kentucky Derby candidate after his win in Saturdays Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. He stalked the pace setter the stubborn Cowboy Cal and beat him to the wire. The final time for the Bluegrass Stakes was 1:49.71 over the perplexing poly surface. What do we make of Monbas win? It is hard to say. He broke his maiden at Keeneland. Pletcher had him ready to run a big race in the Bluegrass and did. He jumped right into the Derby. Monba was a sharp winner over the Churchill Downs strip at a mile in 1:35.2 a solid time in a 12-horse field. Breeding suggests distance will not be too much of an issue. His grandsire on the bottom is the late great Easy Goer breeding wise, and connection wise he is A Okay. Another question is will he move forward off it or will it take too much out of him. Todd Pletcher probably knows for sure. The real question as is with all the horses, is he fast enough? He looks to be one of the horses that has a real good running style for the Derby





6)(7) Cowboy Cal- Giants Causeway – Texas Tammy – Seeking the Gold, February Homebred, (E/S) Cowboy Cal transferred his solid turf form over the poly with no problem. Cowboy Cal gives Todd Pletcher another horse that will qualify for the Kentucky Derby in 3 weeks. Cowboy Cal was coming off a 2-month layoff and might not have been as sharp for this and he still ran a very big race. His sire is the hot Giants Causeway who ran tremendous race in the Breeder’s Cup classic over the Churchill Downs strip, just barley beaten by Tiznow. Cowboy Cal set the pace in the Bluegrass and looked like he might actually win the race in mid stretch but was outlasted by Monba. We had mentioned in other places that we thought he would run strong here and he did. Now he will try another new surface for the first time. We feel he has a lot of upside at this point. His next start will be his second off the layoff and his last could very well tighten him up for the Derby. There is also the possibility he might regress. He will have to prove can handle the dirt. He has been very consistent and has run very well on the turf and poly. The only race he ran poorly in was his debut on dirt. We would be willing to cross it out, and chalk up as a loss plain and simple. It’s still in the back of their heads. Granddad on the bottom is Seeking The Gold . He looks good in the distance department.



7)(-) Z Fortune – Siphon – Fortunate Faith – Fortunate Prospect, March, Purchase Price $80,000 (S) Z Fortune makes a returns to the Derby 12 after his strong second to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby. Z Fortune’s trip was not as kind as Gayego’s. He was five wide going into the first turn and he lost ground. He was able to get back into contention and made a strong run after Gayego to get 2nd place money. He also galloped out passed Gayego when the race was over. Seeing him gallop past Gayego was a promising sign. It looks like he will handle the distance. We said he would have to rebound off his poor Rebel effort. He will try to become the second New York Bred in history to win the Kentucky Derby. One might have to question if he is good enough at this point. He enters the Derby off a strong showing in his final prep. It is always better to head into a race like that off a strong effort then a flat effort.





8)(3) Pyro- Pulpit - Wild Vision - By Wild Again, Homebred, February (S/R) Pyro’s poor effort in the Bluegrass knocks him down to number 8 in this weeks Derby 12. We had no choice to move him down after some of the other good races run by others. There are two schools of thought on his bad effort in the Bluegrass. School 1 says he did not care for the poly surface one bit. In fact, he disliked it so much he would not respond over it. That is a valid excuse. He might not have liked it and ran bad. If that is true, he should get a pass and a much-improved try in the Derby is expected. Enough to win that is another topic for another day. The other school of thought is he might have just gone south after his tough 2-year-old campaign and two big efforts in Louisiana. Sometimes these younger horses can only string so many good races together in a row before they lose their form. Has he lost a few steps? I think we can attribute the poor effort more to the poly surface then his ability. Assmussen knows that Pyro was in the Derby no matter what happened in the Bluegrass. We would have liked to seen a strong effort in the Bluegrass anyway. I was unable to gauge his effort. We think he will bounce back in the Derby. Enough to win? He has won at a 1 1/16 twice. He never factored in the 1 1/8 Bluegrass. So going a 1 ¼ has to be a wonder. He also defeated Z Humor in the Risen Start who bounced back with a big Arkansas effort. Ah the questions about this one.





9)(5) Recapturetheglory- Cherokee Run – Cold Awakening – Dehere, Purchase Price $215,000, Feb (E)Recapturetheglory drops down after this weekends preps. The winner of the Illinois derby in front running style showed some determination when it looked like Golden Spikes would hook him and go by. It did not happen. Recapturetheglory dug down and turned him and the rest back. He received a good speed figure for the race as well. The fact remains he looks like a one-dimensional front-runner who needs the lead. The Kentucky Derby looks like it will have a solid pace. He will not have it easy there. The other question is class. He does not have the resume of some of the others and has beaten lesser. I liked the Illinois Derby. He ran well there. He also showed that is a game horse. The Kentucky Derby will be a completely new world with plenty of speed and class horses. Will he step up? It is a lot to ask, but anytime a horse has speed, they cannot be totally ignored. Breeding says no.





10)(11) War Pass-Cherokee Run - Vue - By Mr. Prospector, Purchase Price $180,000, April (E) War Pass. Did we forget him? No, we did not. The fast War Pass has in fact dropped, but the two-year-old champion has real speed. He ran a big Wood memorial before tiring late in that race. The biggest question he had before even the Tampa Bay Derby was will have the ability to get a 1 ¼? Moreover, that dogging question resurfaced in the Wood Memorial. He was unable to stay on and win at 1 1/8 so asking him to get the extra distance becomes an even bigger concern. The pace in the Derby promises to be a swift one. Those are the things against him. Leave no doubt he is a fast horse and is well seasoned. The Derby will be his fourth start of year and he could be cycling towards his best race yet. Therefore, an improvement in the Derby is possible. Pace and distance are things he will need to overcome.





11)(9) Smooth Air- Smooth Jazz - Air France- By French Deputy, (S/E) Benny Stutts Jr has waited a long time to get to the Derby. Smooth Air will get him there. Stutts has confidence in his 3-year-old. Back to number 11 this week. He was the only other horse in the picture when Big Brown hit the wire. Smooth Air has speed and is yet another horse that could very well run on the front end. He ran second to Big Brown in the Florida Derby. He was no match. However, ran a lot better then any other horse in that race. If this can find away to relax off the pace a bit, that would be the best approach for this horse. We do not know. The distance could be an issue as well. Trainer Benny Stutts waited and waited. Here he is in the Derby.





12)(-) Hey Byrn – Put It Back – Restraining Order – Skip Trial, Purchase Price $160,000 (S/E) Hey Byrn debuts at number 12 on ThoroughbredZones Derby 12. He finally lived up to expectations after running big earlier in the year. He put himself into the Derby picture with the victory. The graded money was what he needed and he got it with the Holy Bull win. Hey Byrn was soundly beaten in the Florida Derby by Big Brown. He also finished behind Smooth Air. What does that tells us about Big Brown? Hey Byrn will have to come back in 3 weeks and improve by a reasonable amount to be considered a factor. Hey Byrn is by the fast Put it Back. The win was at a 1 3/16 the Preakness distance. He will have to make up a tremendous of amount of ground on Big Brown if he runs another big race. Right now Big Brown is our number 1. We think that is asking a lot. We will know for sure in 3 weeks.





Off the Derby 12..



Cool Coal Man, A horse that might have not liked the poly, but we have are doubts he is fast enough, Big Truck-earnings and a poor Bluegrass knocks him off, he might have not cared for the poly either, Visionaire was way back and made a move in the Bluegrass but was never in contention, Coast Guard- He does not have the graded earnings so he cant make it anyway, Bob Black Jack is another who will be short on graded earnings and has been taken off..

[Stevie Belmont]

He also defeated Z Humor in the Risen Start who bounced back with a big Arkansas effort. Ah the questions about this one.


Pyro defeated Z Fortune, not Z Humor

[Stevie Belmont]

Bob Black Jack ran second in the Santa Anita Derby gaining more the enough graded money to compete in the Kentucky Derby. He could get back on our final list.

[Stevie Belmont]

Final ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby Top 12





4/21/08


We have made a few minor changes. Bob Black Jack and Court Vision have been added to the list. Hey Bryn and War Pass are off. We made a few other minor tweaks. The list largely remains the same. All the major preps have been run. Making any more changes at this point is a little redundant. The top 12 here all look like they will be in the Derby. Next week will take a closer look at the Kentucky Derby and give our opinion and comments on how the Kentucky Derby in the ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby preview. We will go over how the race might set up and who looks to have the best chance to win the roses.


1)(1) Big Brown - Boundary - Mien - By Nureyev, Purchase Price $60,000, (E/S) - Big Brown remains number 1 in the ThoroughbredZone Derby 12. Big Brown worked again this past Saturday April 19th at Palm Meadows. Everything went smooth and he did it easy. He is scheduled for one more works before heading to Churchill Downs on April 28. We still feel at this point he has had the most impressive Derby prep win of them all in the Florida Derby where he broke from post position 12, gained command quickly and drew clear to win in 1:48 and change. Hey Byrn was soundly defeated by Big Brown in the Florida Derby, who came back to win the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. So far the feet issues remains a non-issue. He will wear special shoes on his front feet. He will enter the Derby with only three career starts and has had a tendency to drift a bit in the stretch. Indicating he is still learning how to do it. Big Brown might be the most talented horse of this crop. He is physically imposing and has a big stride. The Derby will be his 4th lifetime start. History is not on his side, but history is not a guarantee of future results He still has room to move forward since he is lightly raced. Some horses might have already run their best race. I do not feel this one has yet. He still has obstacles to overcome. If he were able to win the Kentucky Derby, it would be a huge accomplishment considering his lack of racing experience.



2)(2) Colonel John -Tiznow - Sweet Damsel - By Turkoman March, Homebred, (S/R) - Colonel John remains in his number 2 spot after his Santa Anita Derby victory. He was wide and galloped strongly to pass the stubborn and speedy Bob Black Jack. He also galloped out past the 1 ¼ marker with relative ease. Getting the distance looks like it will not be an issue. He is also battle tested. He has won four of his six starts. He also had to work to get by Bob Black Jack and did just that. A similar situation is more then likely in the Kentucky Derby where there will be traffic and ground to make up. Colonel John has the seasoning edge over Big Brown. We do not know if he has the talent edge. In addition, to make matters more confusing is the fact that he still has never run on a dirt surface. Gayego had no problem in his first crack over it winning the Arkansas Derby. We think Colonel John will not dislike the dirt. It is still an unknown commodity for him. A fit and ready Colonel John, and if he takes to the dirt would have to considered a big factor on May 3rd.



3)(3) Gayego – Gilded Time – Devils Lake- Lost Code, Purchase Price $32,000(E/S) Gayego showed he is not a one trick poly pony as he won the Arkansas Derby over a stubborn foe in Z Fortune, who himself ran a very strong race. Gayego came east and won. Gayego sat off snappy splits and made his move turning for home and stayed on to win the Arkansas Derby GII in 1:49.63. It was a gutsy determined win for the colt out of sprint specialist Gilded Time. One of the biggest questions we had about him going into this event was if he could get the distance. He did in the Arkansas Derby. He did benefit from a real good trip along the inside. And that helped his cause in winning. The same trip might not be the case in the Derby. He also showed he does have to be on the lead. He relaxed a couple lengths off the pace before making a move. The question I have is still the same as had before the race. Will he want any part of a 1 ¼? His breeding does not suggest it. Z Fortune passed him in the gallop out. Gayego looked a little tired after the race. Therefore, we have to wonder how much this race took out of him. He did pass the dirt test. That is not really a question anymore. We will soon find out in the Kentucky Derby about the distance concern.



4) Tale Of Ekati- Tale of the Cat – Silence Beauty- Sunday Silence, March (S/R) Tale of Ekati jumps up to the number three spot after the poor effort by Pyro. The big thing going for Tale of Ekati is his bottom breeding. Another who we think will have no issues going the 1 ¼. Tale of Ekati won the Wood Memorial with a long sustained drive to pass a tiring War Pass. War Pass set solid fractions before tiring a bit late and Tale of Ekati benefited the most. Tale of Ekati inherited the number 3 spot with Pyro running so poorly in the Bluegrass. We like the breeding. The biggest question with him is this…is he fast enough. The final time of the Wood was not blockbuster. The early fractions were quick, but the final furlong was not as great. Barclay Tagg knows the horse has class and will train him up to the Derby. His style probably fits with the anticipated pace scenario that could very well develop. We will just have to see if he is fast enough to win it all. We think he is going to be a good fit in the Belmont Stakes.



5)(5) Monba – Wavering Monarch – Hamba – Easy Goer, March, Purchase Price $200,000 (S/R) Monba finally gave Todd Pletcher a Kentucky Derby candidate after his win in Saturdays Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. He stalked the pace setter the stubborn Cowboy Cal and beat him to the wire. The final time for the Bluegrass Stakes was 1:49.71 over the perplexing poly surface. What do we make of Monbas win? It is hard to say. He broke his maiden at Keeneland. Pletcher had him ready to run a big race in the Bluegrass and did. He jumped right into the Derby. Monba was a sharp winner over the Churchill Downs strip at a mile in 1:35.2 a solid time in a 12-horse field. Breeding suggests distance will not be too much of an issue. His grandsire on the bottom is the late great Easy Goer breeding wise, and connection wise he is A Okay. Another question is will he move forward off it or will it take too much out of him. Todd Pletcher probably knows for sure. The real question as is with all the horses, is he fast enough? He looks to be one of the horses that has a real good running style for the Derby



6)(6) Cowboy Cal- Giants Causeway – Texas Tammy – Seeking the Gold, February Homebred, (E/S) Cowboy Cal transferred his solid turf form over the poly with no problem. Cowboy Cal gives Todd Pletcher another horse that will qualify for the Kentucky Derby in 3 weeks. Cowboy Cal was coming off a 2-month layoff and might not have been as sharp for this and he still ran a very big race. His sire is the hot Giants Causeway who ran tremendous race in the Breeder’s Cup classic over the Churchill Downs strip, just barley beaten by Tiznow. Cowboy Cal set the pace in the Bluegrass and looked like he might actually win the race in mid stretch but was outlasted by Monba. We had mentioned in other places that we thought he would run strong here and he did. Now he will try another new surface for the first time. We feel he has a lot of upside at this point. His next start will be his second off the layoff and his last could very well tighten him up for the Derby. There is also the possibility he might regress. He will have to prove can handle the dirt. He has been very consistent and has run very well on the turf and poly. The only race he ran poorly in was his debut on dirt. We would be willing to cross it out, and chalk up as a loss plain and simple. It’s still in the back of their heads. Granddad on the bottom is Seeking The Gold . He looks good in the distance department.



7)(7) Z Fortune – Siphon – Fortunate Faith – Fortunate Prospect, March, Purchase Price $80,000 (S) Z Fortune makes a returns to the Derby 12 after his strong second to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby. Z Fortune’s trip was not as kind as Gayego’s. He was five wide going into the first turn and he lost ground. He was able to get back into contention and made a strong run after Gayego to get 2nd place money. He also galloped out passed Gayego when the race was over. Seeing him gallop past Gayego was a promising sign. It looks like he will handle the distance. We said he would have to rebound off his poor Rebel effort. He will try to become the second New York Bred in history to win the Kentucky Derby. One might have to question if he is good enough at this point. He enters the Derby off a strong showing in his final prep. It is always better to head into a race like that off a strong effort then a flat effort.



(6)(6) Pyro- Pulpit - Wild Vision - By Wild Again, Homebred, February (S/R) Pyro’s poor effort in the Bluegrass knocks him down to number 8 in this weeks Derby 12. We had no choice to move him down after some of the other good races run by others. There are two schools of thought on his bad effort in the Bluegrass. School 1 says he did not care for the poly surface one bit. In fact, he disliked it so much he would not respond over it. That is a valid excuse. He might not have liked it and ran bad. If that is true, he should get a pass and a much-improved try in the Derby is expected. Enough to win that is another topic for another day. The other school of thought is he might have just gone south after his tough 2-year-old campaign and two big efforts in Louisiana. Sometimes these younger horses can only string so many good races together in a row before they lose their form. Has he lost a few steps? I think we can attribute the poor effort more to the poly surface then his ability. Assmussen knows that Pyro was in the Derby no matter what happened in the Bluegrass. We would have liked to seen a strong effort in the Bluegrass anyway. I was unable to gauge his effort. We think he will bounce back in the Derby. Enough to win? He has won at a 1 1/16 twice. He never factored in the 1 1/8 Bluegrass. So going a 1 ¼ has to be a wonder. He also defeated Z Humor in the Risen Start who bounced back with a big Arkansas effort. Ah the questions about this one.



9)(9) Recapturetheglory- Cherokee Run – Cold Awakening – Dehere, Purchase Price $215,000, Feb (E)Recapturetheglory drops down after this weekends preps. The winner of the Illinois derby in front running style showed some determination when it looked like Golden Spikes would hook him and go by. It did not happen. Recapturetheglory dug down and turned him and the rest back. He received a good speed figure for the race as well. The fact remains he looks like a one-dimensional front-runner who needs the lead. The Kentucky Derby looks like it will have a solid pace. He will not have it easy there. The other question is class. He does not have the resume of some of the others and has beaten lesser. I liked the Illinois Derby. He ran well there. He also showed that is a game horse. The Kentucky Derby will be a completely new world with plenty of speed and class horses. Will he step up? It is a lot to ask, but anytime a horse has speed, they cannot be totally ignored. Breeding says no.





10)(11) Smooth Air- Smooth Jazz - Air France- By French Deputy, (S/E) Smooth Air moves up to number 10 this week. Benny Stutts Jr has waited a long time to get to the Derby. Smooth Air will get him there. Stutts has confidence in his 3-year-old. He was the only other horse in the picture when Big Brown hit the wire. Smooth Air has speed and is yet another horse that could very well run on the front end. He ran second to Big Brown in the Florida Derby. He was no match. However, ran a lot better then any other horse in that race. If he can find away to relax off the pace a bit, that would be the best approach for this horse. We do not know. The distance could be an issue as well. Trainer Benny Stutts waited and waited. Here he is in the Derby.



(11)(-) Bob Black Jack – Stormy Jack – Molly’s Prospector – Native Prospector, Purchase Price $4,500 (E) The speedball Bob Black Jack returns to the ThoroughbredZone Derby 12. The $4,500 purchase turned out to be a real steal. He has of a world record and a track record over the new Santa Anita synthetic surface. Has yet to run on a dirt surface, but there is no doubt that he is a fast horse out of the gate. Bob Black Jack could very well figure to be a huge pace factor as he is one of the main speeds now that War Pass is out. Bob Black Jack has modest breeding. He is out of Stormy Jack. Bob Black Jack certainly has the speed to get a call for sure, but the big question is if this horse wants anything to do with a 1 ¼. He ran a determined second in the Santa Anita Derby to the highly regarded Colonel John. If you like speed, Bob Black Jack is your horse. We feel he will be on the pace and if anything he will try to take them all the way. It won’t be easy as the final furlong will probably be his demise. There are a few other horses that have some speed, so a speed duel is another issue facing this one.



(12)(-) Court Vision- Gulch – Weekend Storm- Storm Bird, Purchase price $ 800,000 (S/R) Court Vision finally makes an appearance on out ThorougbredZone Derby 12. Court Vision recording an impressive work out at Churchill Downs that many said was a very sharp looking drill. The son of Gulch ran third in the Wood memorial behind Tale of Ekati and War Pass. Court Vision could be coming into his own at the right time. If the work is an indicator of his forward development, he might have something to say. The down side is this, is he fast enough. The Remsen winner over Atoned was not a real fast race, but that was as a two year old. The Wood Memorial time was in a word, what could we say…slow. Final time in 1:52.35. He was able to pass Giant Moon to get the show spot. We think he need to take it to another level to be the Kentucky Derby winner. He is in the hands of the master Bill Mott who has be known to have them ready for big races. He is in good hands. The question is if this one is fast enough to win it.


Off the ThoroughbredZone Derby 12-

Hey Byrn looks to below in the speed and class department. War Pass has been eliminated from Kentucky Derby contention after the discovery of a broken bone in his ankle.

Notable mentions

Other possible entries are two Larry Jones trained fillys. Eight Belles and Proud Spell will be cross entered in the Oaks and Derby. The entry of either or both would knock others out who are on the earnings bubble. Rick Porter will decide after seeing where he they draw in the post position.

[Kousa]

Would love to see Eight Belles do something. Thanks for this, very informative!