Shortest field, longest odds

[Tape Reader]

Hi All,

A long time ago I heard of a system called "The longest price in the shortest field." Today, at Aqueduct, the 3 horse was the longest price in the smallest field of the day, and won paying $26.80. Have any of you Guys/Gals ever tested this idea? Is there any logic to it?
Thank you all in advance.

[Overlay]

I don't know that I've heard of that specific system, but I'd say that a smaller field would make it less likely that a horse would run into traffic problems. There would also be fewer horses to beat. And the smaller field would make it easier (it seems to me) for the public to settle on a single horse as an overbet favorite, making the longest shot on the board under those circumstances (whatever its relative merits) more likely to be an overlay, and to win more often than its odds would suggest. (Just my personal take.)

[MAGICHORSEMAN]

I have seen the longest shots win in the shortest fields many times in the last 30 years. I have seen it happen from Saratoga to Gulfstream to Santa Anita. It is pretty amazing and worth talking about.

[hdcper]

This is from my 2008 database for Jan 1st through Mar10th. Longest price horse will be found in Odds Rank 5 row of data.








UDM Definition: FieldSize
Divisor: # UDM Def Divisor: 999
Surface Req: *ANY Surface*
Distance Req: *ANY Distance*

Field Size: MinVal= 5 MaxVal= 5
Running Style: ALL


Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Filters Applied:

Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\JcapperDatabases\AADATABASE2008\pL_profile.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 2053.40 2050.80 1938.00
Bet -2620.00 -2620.00 -2620.00
Gain -566.60 -569.20 -682.00

Wins 263 523 695
Plays 1310 1310 1310
PCT .2008 .3992 .5305

ROI 0.7837 0.7827 0.7397
Avg Mut 7.81 3.92 2.79


By: Odds Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -35.90 536.00 0.9330 126 268 .4701 2.3418
2 -172.00 520.00 0.6692 52 260 .2000 0.9962
3 -82.40 524.00 0.8427 44 262 .1679 0.8365
4 -146.30 518.00 0.7176 27 259 .1042 0.5193
5 -130.00 522.00 0.7510 14 261 .0536 0.2672
6 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
7 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
8 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
9 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
10 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
11 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
12 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
13 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
14 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
16 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
17 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
18 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000


By: 21 TheOdds

>=Min <Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.50 -4.40 46.00 0.9043 16 23 .6957
0.50 1.00 -19.70 176.00 0.8881 46 88 .5227
1.00 1.50 -31.30 210.00 0.8510 42 105 .4000
1.50 2.00 -33.70 214.00 0.8425 34 107 .3178
2.00 2.50 -48.80 184.00 0.7348 22 92 .2391
2.50 3.00 -110.60 180.00 0.3856 10 90 .1111
3.00 3.50 -27.80 178.00 0.8438 18 89 .2022
3.50 4.00 -1.70 180.00 0.9906 19 90 .2111
4.00 4.50 -32.00 126.00 0.7460 9 63 .1429
4.50 5.00 42.00 72.00 1.5833 10 36 .2778
5.00 5.50 -30.20 92.00 0.6717 5 46 .1087
5.50 6.00 -15.00 68.00 0.7794 4 34 .1176
6.00 6.50 -13.60 86.00 0.8419 5 43 .1163
6.50 7.00 11.40 50.00 1.2280 4 25 .1600
7.00 7.50 9.80 56.00 1.1750 4 28 .1429
7.50 8.00 -34.80 52.00 0.3308 1 26 .0385
8.00 8.50 -18.00 36.00 0.5000 1 18 .0556
8.50 9.00 3.00 36.00 1.0833 2 18 .1111
9.00 9999.00 -211.20 578.00 0.6346 11 289 .0381



Ending BankRoll: $99.95
Starting BankRoll: $500.00
High BankRoll: $516.80
Low BankRoll: $99.95
Bet Percentage: 0.0100
Max Bet: 500.00

[hdcper]

UDM Definition: FieldSize
Divisor: # UDM Def Divisor: 999
Surface Req: *ANY Surface*
Distance Req: *ANY Distance*

Field Size: MinVal= 6 MaxVal= 6
Running Style: ALL


Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Filters Applied:

Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\JcapperDatabases\AADATABASE2008\pL_profile.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 5831.60 6038.40 6320.10
Bet -8002.00 -8002.00 -8002.00
Gain -2170.40 -1963.60 -1681.90

Wins 673 1341 1987
Plays 4001 4001 4001
PCT .1682 .3352 .4966

ROI 0.7288 0.7546 0.7898
Avg Mut 8.67 4.50 3.18


By: Odds Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -167.20 1396.00 0.8802 286 698 .4097 2.4359
2 -259.70 1310.00 0.8018 154 655 .2351 1.3978
3 -396.30 1324.00 0.7007 98 662 .1480 0.8801
4 -373.20 1326.00 0.7186 68 663 .1026 0.6097
5 -433.20 1318.00 0.6713 42 659 .0637 0.3789
6 -540.80 1328.00 0.5928 25 664 .0377 0.2238
7 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
8 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
9 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
10 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
11 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
12 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
13 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
14 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
16 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
17 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
18 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000


By: 21 TheOdds

>=Min <Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.50 -9.50 62.00 0.8468 20 31 .6452
0.50 1.00 -43.90 364.00 0.8794 93 182 .5110
1.00 1.50 -26.40 470.00 0.9438 101 235 .4298
1.50 2.00 -112.00 580.00 0.8069 87 290 .3000
2.00 2.50 -21.90 514.00 0.9574 77 257 .2996
2.50 3.00 -66.10 498.00 0.8673 59 249 .2369
3.00 3.50 -179.70 460.00 0.6093 34 230 .1478
3.50 4.00 -121.50 430.00 0.7174 33 215 .1535
4.00 4.50 -107.80 376.00 0.7133 26 188 .1383
4.50 5.00 -73.60 278.00 0.7353 18 139 .1295
5.00 5.50 -69.00 218.00 0.6835 12 109 .1101
5.50 6.00 -57.20 244.00 0.7656 14 122 .1148
6.00 6.50 -97.80 256.00 0.6180 11 128 .0859
6.50 7.00 1.00 230.00 1.0043 15 115 .1304
7.00 7.50 -60.80 176.00 0.6545 7 88 .0795
7.50 8.00 -31.00 170.00 0.8176 8 85 .0941
8.00 8.50 -3.60 132.00 0.9727 7 66 .1061
8.50 9.00 59.40 144.00 1.4125 11 72 .1528
9.00 9999.00 -1149.00 2400.00 0.5213 40 1200 .0333



Ending BankRoll: $99.45
Starting BankRoll: $500.00
High BankRoll: $530.20
Low BankRoll: $99.45
Bet Percentage: 0.0100
Max Bet: 500.00

[hdcper]

UDM Definition: FieldSize
Divisor: # UDM Def Divisor: 999
Surface Req: *ANY Surface*
Distance Req: *ANY Distance*

Field Size: MinVal= 7 MaxVal= 7
Running Style: ALL


Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Filters Applied:

Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\JcapperDatabases\AADATABASE2008\pL_profile.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 10746.90 10779.50 11215.10
Bet -14334.00 -14334.00 -14334.00
Gain -3587.10 -3554.50 -3118.90

Wins 1038 2059 3072
Plays 7167 7167 7167
PCT .1448 .2873 .4286

ROI 0.7497 0.7520 0.7824
Avg Mut 10.35 5.24 3.65


By: Odds Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -428.30 2170.00 0.8026 379 1085 .3493 2.4118
2 -501.00 1992.00 0.7485 204 996 .2048 1.4142
3 -105.10 2040.00 0.9485 188 1020 .1843 1.2726
4 -408.70 2018.00 0.7975 112 1009 .1110 0.7664
5 -449.00 2042.00 0.7801 85 1021 .0833 0.5748
6 -616.20 2034.00 0.6971 46 1017 .0452 0.3123
7 -1078.80 2038.00 0.4707 24 1019 .0236 0.1626
8 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
9 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
10 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
11 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
12 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
13 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
14 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
16 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
17 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
18 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000


By: 21 TheOdds

>=Min <Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.50 -11.30 78.00 0.8551 25 39 .6410
0.50 1.00 -110.50 424.00 0.7394 91 212 .4292
1.00 1.50 -72.70 646.00 0.8875 131 323 .4056
1.50 2.00 -173.50 724.00 0.7604 101 362 .2790
2.00 2.50 -191.10 816.00 0.7658 98 408 .2402
2.50 3.00 -125.90 880.00 0.8569 102 440 .2318
3.00 3.50 -186.30 746.00 0.7503 68 373 .1823
3.50 4.00 -145.20 768.00 0.8109 67 384 .1745
4.00 4.50 -71.20 532.00 0.8662 45 266 .1692
4.50 5.00 -10.60 480.00 0.9779 41 240 .1708
5.00 5.50 -108.60 480.00 0.7738 30 240 .1250
5.50 6.00 -55.60 418.00 0.8670 27 209 .1292
6.00 6.50 -56.80 410.00 0.8615 25 205 .1220
6.50 7.00 47.80 336.00 1.1423 25 168 .1488
7.00 7.50 -106.00 336.00 0.6845 14 168 .0833
7.50 8.00 14.20 300.00 1.0473 18 150 .1200
8.00 8.50 -18.40 240.00 0.9233 12 120 .1000
8.50 9.00 36.00 256.00 1.1406 15 128 .1172
9.00 9999.00 -2241.40 5464.00 0.5898 103 2732 .0377



Ending BankRoll: $99.85
Starting BankRoll: $500.00
High BankRoll: $756.25
Low BankRoll: $99.85
Bet Percentage: 0.0100
Max Bet: 500.00

[hdcper]

UDM Definition: FieldSize
Divisor: # UDM Def Divisor: 999
Surface Req: *ANY Surface*
Distance Req: *ANY Distance*

Field Size: MinVal= 8 MaxVal= 8
Running Style: ALL


Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Filters Applied:

Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\JcapperDatabases\AADATABASE2008\pL_profile.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 13396.50 13120.40 13155.60
Bet -17022.00 -17022.00 -17022.00
Gain -3625.50 -3901.60 -3866.40

Wins 1073 2132 3195
Plays 8511 8511 8511
PCT .1261 .2505 .3754

ROI 0.7870 0.7708 0.7729
Avg Mut 12.49 6.15 4.12


By: Odds Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -585.80 2228.00 0.7371 352 1114 .3160 2.5063
2 -293.20 2116.00 0.8614 231 1058 .2183 1.7318
3 -538.60 2110.00 0.7447 150 1055 .1422 1.1278
4 -391.40 2102.00 0.8138 128 1051 .1218 0.9660
5 -453.80 2118.00 0.7857 89 1059 .0840 0.6666
6 -225.00 2110.00 0.8934 67 1055 .0635 0.5037
7 -760.60 2122.00 0.6416 30 1061 .0283 0.2243
8 -377.10 2116.00 0.8218 26 1058 .0246 0.1949
9 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
10 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
11 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
12 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
13 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
14 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
16 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
17 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
18 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000


By: 21 TheOdds

>=Min <Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.50 5.10 40.00 1.1275 17 20 .8500
0.50 1.00 -47.20 386.00 0.8777 98 193 .5078
1.00 1.50 -174.10 604.00 0.7118 98 302 .3245
1.50 2.00 -161.20 686.00 0.7650 97 343 .2828
2.00 2.50 -167.40 770.00 0.7826 94 385 .2442
2.50 3.00 -186.20 842.00 0.7789 89 421 .2114
3.00 3.50 -150.00 812.00 0.8153 79 406 .1946
3.50 4.00 -120.20 730.00 0.8353 65 365 .1781
4.00 4.50 -112.60 712.00 0.8419 58 356 .1629
4.50 5.00 -37.20 616.00 0.9396 51 308 .1656
5.00 5.50 -139.40 598.00 0.7669 38 299 .1271
5.50 6.00 -10.20 490.00 0.9792 36 245 .1469
6.00 6.50 1.20 416.00 1.0029 29 208 .1394
6.50 7.00 -132.60 394.00 0.6635 17 197 .0863
7.00 7.50 -35.80 378.00 0.9053 21 189 .1111
7.50 8.00 -177.40 370.00 0.5205 11 185 .0595
8.00 8.50 -71.80 328.00 0.7811 14 164 .0854
8.50 9.00 -96.40 310.00 0.6890 11 155 .0710
9.00 9999.00 -1812.10 7540.00 0.7597 150 3770 .0398



Ending BankRoll: $99.60
Starting BankRoll: $500.00
High BankRoll: $675.00
Low BankRoll: $99.60
Bet Percentage: 0.0100
Max Bet: 500.00

[hdcper]

UDM Definition: FieldSize
Divisor: # UDM Def Divisor: 999
Surface Req: *ANY Surface*
Distance Req: *ANY Distance*

Field Size: MinVal= 9 MaxVal= 9
Running Style: ALL


Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Filters Applied:

Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\JcapperDatabases\AADATABASE2008\pL_profile.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 11287.70 10823.80 10877.40
Bet -14002.00 -14002.00 -14002.00
Gain -2714.30 -3178.20 -3124.60

Wins 786 1563 2337
Plays 7001 7001 7001
PCT .1123 .2233 .3338

ROI 0.8061 0.7730 0.7768
Avg Mut 14.36 6.93 4.65


By: Odds Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -345.50 1634.00 0.7886 258 817 .3158 2.8128
2 -411.80 1550.00 0.7343 143 775 .1845 1.6435
3 -194.50 1530.00 0.8729 119 765 .1556 1.3856
4 -325.60 1540.00 0.7886 84 770 .1091 0.9717
5 -186.60 1542.00 0.8790 65 771 .0843 0.7509
6 -422.20 1560.00 0.7294 44 780 .0564 0.5025
7 55.40 1544.00 1.0359 42 772 .0544 0.4846
8 -338.90 1558.00 0.7825 22 779 .0282 0.2515
9 -544.60 1544.00 0.6473 9 772 .0117 0.1038
10 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
11 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
12 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
13 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
14 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
16 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
17 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
18 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000


By: 21 TheOdds

>=Min <Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.50 3.40 16.00 1.2125 7 8 .8750
0.50 1.00 -63.80 216.00 0.7046 43 108 .3981
1.00 1.50 -54.20 416.00 0.8697 82 208 .3942
1.50 2.00 -76.60 442.00 0.8267 68 221 .3077
2.00 2.50 -130.30 596.00 0.7814 73 298 .2450
2.50 3.00 -138.90 646.00 0.7850 69 323 .2136
3.00 3.50 -196.40 590.00 0.6671 47 295 .1593
3.50 4.00 -138.40 508.00 0.7276 39 254 .1535
4.00 4.50 -111.00 484.00 0.7707 36 242 .1488
4.50 5.00 -37.60 468.00 0.9197 38 234 .1624
5.00 5.50 -65.00 376.00 0.8271 25 188 .1330
5.50 6.00 22.60 380.00 1.0595 30 190 .1579
6.00 6.50 -115.80 390.00 0.7031 19 195 .0974
6.50 7.00 -98.60 330.00 0.7012 15 165 .0909
7.00 7.50 -9.20 290.00 0.9683 17 145 .1172
7.50 8.00 -37.40 246.00 0.8480 12 123 .0976
8.00 8.50 -48.00 268.00 0.8209 12 134 .0896
8.50 9.00 -55.20 248.00 0.7774 10 124 .0806
9.00 9999.00 -1363.90 7092.00 0.8077 144 3546 .0406



Ending BankRoll: $99.85
Starting BankRoll: $500.00
High BankRoll: $495.00
Low BankRoll: $99.85
Bet Percentage: 0.0100
Max Bet: 500.00

[hdcper]

UDM Definition: FieldSize
Divisor: # UDM Def Divisor: 999
Surface Req: *ANY Surface*
Distance Req: *ANY Distance*

Field Size: MinVal= 10 MaxVal= 10
Running Style: ALL


Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Filters Applied:

Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: C:\JcapperDatabases\AADATABASE2008\pL_profile.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 11012.00 10756.60 10972.90
Bet -14656.00 -14656.00 -14656.00
Gain -3644.00 -3899.40 -3683.10

Wins 737 1467 2201
Plays 7328 7328 7328
PCT .1006 .2002 .3004

ROI 0.7514 0.7339 0.7487
Avg Mut 14.94 7.33 4.99


By: Odds Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -213.70 1540.00 0.8612 247 770 .3208 3.1895
2 -270.90 1444.00 0.8124 142 722 .1967 1.9556
3 -341.40 1452.00 0.7649 99 726 .1364 1.3559
4 -136.00 1450.00 0.9062 86 725 .1186 1.1794
5 -409.20 1462.00 0.7201 55 731 .0752 0.7481
6 -534.80 1478.00 0.6382 36 739 .0487 0.4844
7 -340.80 1464.00 0.7672 31 732 .0423 0.4211
8 -38.60 1444.00 0.9733 26 722 .0360 0.3581
9 -807.20 1466.00 0.4494 8 733 .0109 0.1085
10 -551.40 1456.00 0.6213 7 728 .0096 0.0956
11 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
12 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
13 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
14 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
16 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
17 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
18 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000


By: 21 TheOdds

>=Min <Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.50 2.20 6.00 1.3667 3 3 1.0000
0.50 1.00 -7.30 162.00 0.9549 45 81 .5556
1.00 1.50 -31.30 270.00 0.8841 54 135 .4000
1.50 2.00 -104.70 432.00 0.7576 60 216 .2778
2.00 2.50 -76.50 524.00 0.8540 70 262 .2672
2.50 3.00 23.30 602.00 1.0387 84 301 .2791
3.00 3.50 -193.20 552.00 0.6500 43 276 .1558
3.50 4.00 -114.70 500.00 0.7706 41 250 .1640
4.00 4.50 -95.60 468.00 0.7957 36 234 .1538
4.50 5.00 -44.00 442.00 0.9005 35 221 .1584
5.00 5.50 -71.40 382.00 0.8131 25 191 .1309
5.50 6.00 -154.00 368.00 0.5815 16 184 .0870
6.00 6.50 -18.00 366.00 0.9508 24 183 .1311
6.50 7.00 -60.80 340.00 0.8212 18 170 .1059
7.00 7.50 -24.60 320.00 0.9231 18 160 .1125
7.50 8.00 -86.60 278.00 0.6885 11 139 .0791
8.00 8.50 -96.80 262.00 0.6305 9 131 .0687
8.50 9.00 -79.40 294.00 0.7299 11 147 .0748
9.00 9999.00 -2410.60 8088.00 0.7020 134 4044 .0331



Ending BankRoll: $99.90
Starting BankRoll: $500.00
High BankRoll: $506.60
Low BankRoll: $99.90
Bet Percentage: 0.0100
Max Bet: 500.00

[asH]

nothing mysterious about the race; Aqu track was fast today, meaning horses on the lead had an advantage, jocks didnt read the track trend until the 6th race (Yes Its The Truth) traveled a 1:10 and change , look back at your PP's and you will see the longest plays today, run best on the lead, and on a track favoring speed. Second race was the kicker, Bel Vaggio should have been on the lead...but nooo they let the fav go unchallenged, very suprised at Luzzi, especially after the first race...but these jocks at Aqu dont think, and are not aware of much...watch this kid Morales seems he reads the track exceptionally well.

[DanG]

nothing mysterious about the race; Aqu track was fast today, meaning horses on the lead had an advantage, jocks didnt read the track trend until the 6th race (Yes Its The Truth) traveled a 1:10 and change , look back at your PP's and you will see the longest plays today, run best on the lead, and on a track favoring speed. Second race was the kicker, Bel Vaggio should have been on the lead...but nooo they let the fav go unchallenged, very suprised at Luzzi, especially after the first race...but these jocks at Aqu dont think, and are not aware of much...watch this kid Morales seems he reads the track exceptionally well.
I think “hdcper” very generously answered “Tape Readers” original question so I can’t resist following up on this statement.

Curious Ash…

By what measure was #3 Bel Viaggio “supposed” to be on the lead vs. #5 Glowing Image? :confused:

# 5 was clearly faster early in every conceivable way including positional tendencies.

[asH]

I believed Espinoza would rate off the pace giving Luzzi a first out speed advantage. This is Bel Vaggio's 2nd race since blinkers and would have liked to have seen how Bruce Levines horse would have faired against Glowing Image. I'm aware of Glowing Image's quickness (pp's suggested he may have been pure speed horse), as you can see from the workouts Contessa has been working to curb his speed...I believe you cant rate a pure speed horse and felt Glowing Image would have been at a disadvantage rating...but his times today proves Contessa has done a good job.

[asH]

23.19, 46.54, 58.10, 70.29

[njcurveball]

nothing mysterious about the race; Aqu track was fast today, meaning horses on the lead had an advantage, jocks didnt read the track trend until the 6th race

Must have been one heck of a card game in the jocks room for them to miss this!

I don't even follow the track, but from the many "brow beatings" here I have learned that it favors SPEED, SPEED, and more SPEED.

Do you think the jocks forget this each night when they go to sleep? :bang:

I have to say that most rider colonies need a race or two, so if this one needs six races people here are right and it is the worst in america. :ThmbDown:

[bettheoverlay]

There really should be a new racetrack job called "Jockey Tactical Race Advisor" to give jockeys the lowdown on whats going on. Much like pro golfers walk around with psychologists. Some of you guys have so much expertise in race riding tactics, you'd be perfect.

Hcaper - anecdotal evidence is so exciting, raw data is such a bummer.

[asH]

its called handicapping:)

[asH]

as Ive previously noted, Morales reads the track exceptionally well

[Norm]

# 5 was clearly faster early in every conceivable way including positional tendencies.
Glowing Image was one of the two easiest hits of the day. I was amazed at the generous price considering the circumstances, superior early speed coupled with a sharp class drop. I would have expected 2-5 (and a passed race) and was happy to take 2-1.

[jballscalls]

13 to 1 in a 6 horse field in today's 3rd at AQ. beat a 2/5 darley horse

[jhilden]

At the AQUi, for all races at every distance, horses that had the fastest first fraction last race won 26.8%, had a $Net of $1.93, and average mutual of 5/2.

[Robert Fischer]

This is where batch wagering artists are the real CROOKS:mad:. iN 10 horse fields they get small bets on the horses that go off as 8th choice!!!



:lol::lol::lol: