The in betweens

[46zilzal]

Vertical betting always allows you to isolate on a race, top to bottom, that you have a better handle on than stringing together several races where one might not have that same depth of knowledge.

The tough part is when to keep the struggling pace setter or the "from the clouds" closer in the exotic. Vertical race wagering is easier over all in that regard.

[Cangamble]

Vertical betting always allows you to isolate on a race, top to bottom, that you have a better handle on than stringing together several races where one might not have that same depth of knowledge.

The tough part is when to keep the struggling pace setter or the "from the clouds" closer in the exotic. Vertical race wagering is easier over all in that regard.
Horizontal betting allows you not to get churned to death and parlays for pick 3's, daily doubles, and win 4's usually pay out as overlays. And many find it easier to pick winners than find place and show horses to put under a winner.

[Greyfox]

For me horizontal betting is easier. Although I play a lot of exactas, my better returns usually come from Pick 3, Pick 4 plays. I also hit them more frequently than tri plays.

[GaryG]

For me horizontal betting is easier. Although I play a lot of exactas, my better returns usually come from Pick 3, Pick 4 plays. I also hit them more frequently than tri plays.Sure works for me....I rarely play other than exactas, the P3 and P4.

[The Bit]

I'm on the horizontal side also. Pick 3's and especially 4's usually payout overlayed amounts. I also think of myself as one who is better IDing potential winners and those that have no shot than I am someone who can figure out who is going to run 3rd in the tris.

That being said, the .10 super has been a pleasant surprise to me. By far my best ROI. I'm more willing to hit the all button or really spread in the bottom two slots with the .10 denomination.

[nobeyerspls]

For me horizontal betting is easier. Although I play a lot of exactas, my better returns usually come from Pick 3, Pick 4 plays. I also hit them more frequently than tri plays.

I was debating this topic with a guy at the track who says that the "real pros" laugh at people who bet pick 3's instead of hammering away with straight bets. He refused to concede the value of leverage with horizontal bets. Two minutes after he walked away the first in a sequence of pick 3's came in. The odds were 5/2, 6/5, and 5-1 and the payout was $138.
I don't want a trifecta with a 6/5 on top but I don't mind them in a horizontal bet.

[Fastracehorse]

I was debating this topic with a guy at the track who says that the "real pros" laugh at people who bet pick 3's instead of hammering away with straight bets. He refused to concede the value of leverage with horizontal bets. Two minutes after he walked away the first in a sequence of pick 3's came in. The odds were 5/2, 6/5, and 5-1 and the payout was $138.
I don't want a trifecta with a 6/5 on top but I don't mind them in a horizontal bet.

I think it's good to know how to get value that is realtively easy.

Not that it is often easy.

A 1:9 in a horiz bet can still lead to nice value if a 10-1 comes in - and there are alot of playable 10-1's.

2 faves coming 1st and 2nd to a 10-1 3rd can lead to very nice value in a tri..

It's a great idea to identify high probability plays, or high-return plays, and determine the risk-value from there.

fffastt

[Robert Fischer]

trying an example

Today gulfstream 3/12 = races 4/5/6 odds 1.70 1.80 7.00 payout $1=$91.90

pretend ticket structure 2 x 2 x 3 = $12 cost

probability% (hit rate) pretend using "fair odds" (.37) *(.68)*(.64) = .161

Value = $2Price*Prob%
=15.32*.161
$0.47

edge factor = Value*prob%
= .47*.161
$0.08


Summary = $0.47 is very good value. If you could bet this an infinite number of times with a constant probability% of 16.1%, you should make 47% profit for every dollar. Applying the edge factor for players with moderate to small bankrolls, the "edge" is $0.08. A player with a moderate to small bankroll would have to weigh such a play. Losing or catching the fav or 2nd choice in leg3 would hurt that player more.
In hindsight was a good bet for those with a large bankroll.

[Robert Fischer]

Summary = $0.47 is very good value. If you could bet this an infinite number of times with a constant probability% of 16.1%, you should make 47% profit for every dollar.

should read: "If you could bet this an infinite number of times with a constant probability% of 16.1%,AND AN AVERAGE PAYOUT OF $91.90, you should make 47% profit for every dollar."

the problem is knowing the average payout from the information. Impossible to get better than the 7-1 shot in the 3rd leg, but possible to get that 7-1 and beat both 1,2leg favs, or get all 3 favs etc...

[Fastracehorse]

should read: "If you could bet this an infinite number of times with a constant probability% of 16.1%,AND AN AVERAGE PAYOUT OF $91.90, you should make 47% profit for every dollar."

the problem is knowing the average payout from the information. Impossible to get better than the 7-1 shot in the 3rd leg, but possible to get that 7-1 and beat both 1,2leg favs, or get all 3 favs etc...

It's more likely the 7-1 doesn't come in.

Taking this into consideration your edge z much smaller.

It's almost like U have to have, or handicappers in general, a high % 7-1 play in Ure horizontalso so U can ensure that edge - which means alot less action.

What do U think Robert??

fffastt

[Robert Fischer]

It's more likely the 7-1 doesn't come in.

Taking this into consideration your edge z much smaller.

It's almost like U have to have, or handicappers in general, a high % 7-1 play in Ure horizontalso so U can ensure that edge - which means alot less action.

What do U think Robert??

fffastt

I agree.

The edge-factor is something I made up to help the player with a smaller bankroll avoid ruin. "Value" is really your edge over an infinite amount of plays , but the smaller your bankroll is = the less you can afford to play small Hit Rates.

for that pick 3 all i did was pretend that the odds where "fair"
LEG 3 covered 3 horses:
7-1 = 12.5%
2.7-1= 27%
3.2-1 = 24%
added them up and used the 64% for the amount of hit rate covered in leg3.

In a real world example and I think what you are saying is that if a real handicapper liked the 7-1 a lot (and disliked the 2.7-1 shot) .... to the point that he felt the 7-1 shot was the best choice it would be a better play. Allowing for only 12.5% that the 7-1 would "save" the wager does mean less action.

[Fastracehorse]

I agree.

The edge-factor is something I made up to help the player with a smaller bankroll avoid ruin. "Value" is really your edge over an infinite amount of plays , but the smaller your bankroll is = the less you can afford to play small Hit Rates.

for that pick 3 all i did was pretend that the odds where "fair"
LEG 3 covered 3 horses:
7-1 = 12.5%
2.7-1= 27%
3.2-1 = 24%
added them up and used the 64% for the amount of hit rate covered in leg3.

In a real world example and I think what you are saying is that if a real handicapper liked the 7-1 a lot (and disliked the 2.7-1 shot) .... to the point that he felt the 7-1 shot was the best choice it would be a better play. Allowing for only 12.5% that the 7-1 would "save" the wager does mean less action.

Because it helps understand the realities of the game.

Fiscal science can be boaring - but it really helps us to gain sound monetary judgement.

Taking the action out of the game z a hard rule to engage. Half the fun for cerebral handicappers z the challenge. However, its more v a challenge to not always 'run with them'.

fffastt

[asH]

trying an example

Today gulfstream 3/12 = races 4/5/6 odds 1.70 1.80 7.00 payout $1=$91.90

pretend ticket structure 2 x 2 x 3 = $12 cost

probability% (hit rate) pretend using "fair odds" (.37) *(.68)*(.64) = .161

Value = $2Price*Prob%
=15.32*.161
$0.47

edge factor = Value*prob%
= .47*.161
$0.08


Summary = $0.47 is very good value. If you could bet this an infinite number of times with a constant probability% of 16.1%, you should make 47% profit for every dollar. Applying the edge factor for players with moderate to small bankrolls, the "edge" is $0.08. A player with a moderate to small bankroll would have to weigh such a play. Losing or catching the fav or 2nd choice in leg3 would hurt that player more.
In hindsight was a good bet for those with a large bankroll.

in your example the structure appears to be a 1X2X3 , what are the odds of the second horse in the first leg?
great example

[trigger]

I don't think using implied parlay payoffs to determine whether a pick 3/4 payoff is a good bet is valid.
There should be a substantial premium paid for picking 3/4 in a row with no choice to bail out or reduce your bet after 1 or 2(or 3) consecutive wins.

[Cangamble]

I don't think using implied parlay payoffs to determine whether a pick 3/4 payoff is a good bet is valid.
There should be a substantial premium paid for picking 3/4 in a row with no choice to bail out or reduce your bet after 1 or 2(or 3) consecutive wins.
You can bail in the last leg by betting on the horses you don't have.

[rrbauer]

Your "price" horse in the last leg is always the best result. Betting "into" a price horse rather "from" a price horse gives you multiple shots at it: One, via the horizontal bet that you've made; and, two, via the straight win bet if your horizontal bet goes south before you get there.

OTOH if the "price" occurs in an early leg and you only bet it thru the horizontal bet then you've put that good thing in jeopardy by making it subject to the risk that a downstream contender will not win and take you out of the play. It is for this reason that a straight win bet is preferable to a multiple-race horizontal bet for a "price" horse in the leadoff leg. While some mix of straight/horizontal play to try and capture value in multiple pools will work, failing to cash in on the straight-bet opportunity will have you learning a lesson that you should be teaching!

[Robert Fischer]

in your example the structure appears to be a 1X2X3 , what are the odds of the second horse in the first leg?
great example
2nd horse in first leg would be 2.4-1 or 29.4% "fair odds" hit rate


Yes
good catch
and you point out an error I made as well
I initially used 1x2x3 structure. Switched to 2x2x3- but never adjusted the Prob% for hit rates! I basically gave half of the $2price credit.:eek: OOPs

It makes a huge difference. Here are both ticket structures:



3/12 races 4/5/6 win odds 1.70 1.80 7.00 payout $1 = $91.90

1x2x3
probability% (hit rate) pretend using "fair odds" (.37) *(.68)*(.64) = .161

Value = $2Price*Prob%
=30.63*.161
value =$4.93 :ThmbUp:

edge factor = Value*prob%
= 4.93*.161
edge factor = $0.79:ThmbUp:
-------

2x2x3
probability% (hit rate) pretend using "fair odds" (.66) *(.68)*(.64) = .29

Value = $2Price*Prob%
=15.32*.29
value =$4.44 :ThmbUp:

edge factor = Value*prob%
= 4.44*.29
edge factor = $1.28:ThmbUp:


a few notes
-------------
#1. -always check your math lol

*These numbers are inflated due to the payout being a "best case" hindsight scenario. $2PRICE is the factor that is inflated. Will attempt to solve a more accurate problem next.
anyone = http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant_pdf.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=GP&date=2008-03-12&race=0


The value in the 2x2x3 structure is slightly worse, but the "edge factor" is greater. The moderate to small bankroll player can sacrifice a small bit of "Value" for the safety of greater hit rates. If >.20 edge factor is a good play, then both of these look like great plays (in hindsight). The 2x2x3 appears to be a good deal "safer" without losing a ton of value.

[Cangamble]

Your "price" horse in the last leg is always the best result. Betting "into" a price horse rather "from" a price horse gives you multiple shots at it: One, via the horizontal bet that you've made; and, two, via the straight win bet if your horizontal bet goes south before you get there.

OTOH if the "price" occurs in an early leg and you only bet it thru the horizontal bet then you've put that good thing in jeopardy by making it subject to the risk that a downstream contender will not win and take you out of the play. It is for this reason that a straight win bet is preferable to a multiple-race horizontal bet for a "price" horse in the leadoff leg. While some mix of straight/horizontal play to try and capture value in multiple pools will work, failing to cash in on the straight-bet opportunity will have you learning a lesson that you should be teaching!
I find that the first leg is huge when it comes to overlays if you beat the first few favorites.
I don't have numbers to back me up, but I tend to see that when the first leg is one by a fave or second choice, the payoffs are generally smaller even if you have a longshot in the second or third leg of a Pick 3 for example.

[Robert Fischer]

first to try to simplify the problem.
-----------------------------------
pretend that in race 5 (leg2) there is little to no payout difference between Stratostar(1.80) and Chestermite(2.10).

pretend that in race 6 there is little to no payout difference between Quiet Harbor(2.7) and Aluchua(3.2) but of course is a difference for the 7-1shot.


first using the 1x2x3 structure and lettering the choices a b c

1ax2abx3ab = $45 (estimate)
1ax2abx3c = $90 (hindsight/estimate)

so it doesn't matter about the 1st 2 legs , we simplified it to the third leg.
LEG 3 covered 3 horses:
A 2.7-1= 27%
B 3.2-1 = 24%
C 7-1 = 12.5%

Finding the AVG payout for a hit
AB$45...0.51%...0.803149606...36.14173228
C$90...0.125%...0.196850394...17.71653543
ESTIMATED AVG PAYOUT = $53.85

now we insert the "avg" payout instead of the hindsight best-case payout:

3/12 races 4/5/6 AVG EST PAY $1 = $53.85

1x2x3
probability% (hit rate) pretend using "fair odds" (.37) *(.68)*(.64) = .161

Value = $2Price*Prob%
=17.95*.161
value =$2.89 :ThmbUp:

edge factor = Value*prob%
= 2.94*.161
edge factor = $0.47:ThmbUp:

---------------------------


avg estimate pay for 2x2x3 :eek:


1ax2abx3ab = $45 (estimate) .37*.68*.51 = 13%
1bx2abx3ab= $55 (estimate) .29*.68*.51= 10%
1ax2abx3c = $90 (hindsight/estimate) .37*.68*.125= 3%
1bx2abx3c = $105 (estimate) .29*.68*.125 = 2%

Leg 1
A 1.7 -1 = .37%
B 2.4-1 = .29%

LEG 3 covered 3 horses:
A 2.7-1= 27%
B 3.2-1 = 24%
C 7-1 = 12.5%

$...........%..........= %/(0.28)............=$*corresponding%
45....... 0.13..... 0.464285714....... 20.89285714
55........ 0.1....... 0.357142857....... 19.64285714
90........ 0.03..... 0.107142857....... 9.642857143
105....... 0.02...... 0.071428571....... 7.5
....sum%0.28

ESTIMATED AVG PAYOUT = $57.67

2x2x3
probability% (hit rate) pretend using "fair odds" (.66) *(.68)*(.64) = .29

Value = $2Price*Prob%
=9.61*.29
value =$2.79 :ThmbUp:

edge factor = Value*prob%
= 2.79*.29
edge factor = $0.81:ThmbUp:



WOW lol

Again playing the 2x2x3 is a "safer" play for players with moderate to small bankrolls. If $0.20 "edgefactor" is a good play, then both structures are playable for this example. Hopefully the estimated payouts for the different outcomes were in the ballpark.
i'm going on a math boycott for at least 12 hours.

[Robert Fischer]

Finding the AVG payout for a hit
AB$45...0.51%...0.803149606...36.14173228
C$90...0.125%...0.196850394...17.71653543
ESTIMATED AVG PAYOUT = $53.85


should say:

45 0.128 0.805031447 36.22641509
90 0.031 0.194968553 17.54716981
ESTIMATED AVG PAYOUT = $53.77

close enough!:bang: :lol:

[DanG]

Vertical betting always allows you to isolate on a race, top to bottom, that you have a better handle on than stringing together several races where one might not have that same depth of knowledge.

Fair point 46 and I think the theory applies to all exotic wagering, not just vertical vs. horizontal.

Just because you have a great opinion in the last race doesn’t mean you automatically try and hook up the late DD, Pick-X, Tri and Super.

Example: You’re playing pick-4’s at Saratoga and you have zero feel for turf sprints. Well; you will find yourself spreading wildly in those heats and your edge in the strong legs is all but gone.

The good super players not only have deep pockets, but they are often every bit as creative in the bottom slots as they are in their key. I know a couple good ones (I am NOT among them unfortunately) and one man in particular who structures his bets from the bottom up and he has dominated Keeneland since they went Artf.

Your records will tell you what you’re strong and weak in and if the 2yo maidens continually blow you out, seek out someone who excels in them and form a partnership. Of course avoiding them all together is also an option, but if your focused on just one circuit, that can take the discipline of a Buddhist monk.

[jonnielu]

Vertical betting always allows you to isolate on a race, top to bottom, that you have a better handle on than stringing together several races where one might not have that same depth of knowledge.

The tough part is when to keep the struggling pace setter or the "from the clouds" closer in the exotic. Vertical race wagering is easier over all in that regard.

The dynamics of the exacta and Pk-X, as compared to the dynamics of the tri and super, are quite different. It is difficult to look at any race through two separate pairs of glasses. The wise super bettor would include both the pace setter and the closer in a super, or tri.

The pacesetter, or that horse capable of same, will be the target for that closer that did not show you his early speed ability last out.

jdl

[Fastracehorse]

Your "price" horse in the last leg is always the best result. Betting "into" a price horse rather "from" a price horse gives you multiple shots at it: One, via the horizontal bet that you've made; and, two, via the straight win bet if your horizontal bet goes south before you get there.

OTOH if the "price" occurs in an early leg and you only bet it thru the horizontal bet then you've put that good thing in jeopardy by making it subject to the risk that a downstream contender will not win and take you out of the play. It is for this reason that a straight win bet is preferable to a multiple-race horizontal bet for a "price" horse in the leadoff leg. While some mix of straight/horizontal play to try and capture value in multiple pools will work, failing to cash in on the straight-bet opportunity will have you learning a lesson that you should be teaching!

Great post!

An insightful mannerism in your discourse.

fffastt