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xfile
03-11-2008, 04:31 PM
2008 Top 15 Kentucky Derby Contenders - Update

The Top 15 Contenders Ranked. Followed by the rest of the contenders listed alphabetically below.

#1 PYRO - Won the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby with a steady advance at the Fair Grounds on March 8 going 1 1/16 miles. He sat patiently in the second flight despite a slow pace up front. Had to wait for running room down the lane but he took over inside the eighth pole and drew off by 3 lengths. He pretty much reached the front on his own then got a few taps from Bridghmohan as he opened up.

Won the Grade 3 Risen Star on February 9 at the Fairgrounds. He was very impressive in victory as he was dead last as they turned for home and then weaved in and out of horses like they were standing still. Pyro came home the last 1/4 mile in a fierce 223! "Unbelievable," jockey Shaun Bridghmohan said, watching the replay of the stretch run afterward. "I never even hit him." It was more impressive seeing that he made such a great late move coming off a slow pace.

Pyro was training with stablemete CURLIN which might just be a genius decision by trainer Steve Asmussen. He had a nice 2yo season finishing 2nd in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile and in the Grade 1 Champagne both to WAR PASS.

This PULPIT colt has never finished off the board in 6 career starts (6-3-2-1). He obviously has a very strong, and explosive, late move and has the ability to lay 2nd flight off of a fast pace. His late pace ratings are the strongest of any 3yo on this list.

With A.P. INDY on the top (Pulpit's sire) and WILD AGAIN (damsire) on the bottom, it appears that Pyro will have no problem getting the classic distance of the Kentucky Derby. Both sides show a strong influence for stamina. Even though he is yet to race past 8.5 furlongs, all indications are there that he will stretch out fine.

VIDEO: Louisiana Derby Post Race Review
VIDEO: Another View - Louisiana Derby (G2)
VIDEO: Louisiana Derby (G2)
VIDEO: Risen Star Stakes (G3)
VIDEO: Jill Byrne Analysis
VIDEO: Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1)
NEXT START - Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) on April 12 at Keeneland
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#2 EL GATO MALO - Showed his usual relaxed running style as he sat behind the slow pace (:234, :500, 1:142, 1:382) in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes on March 1 at Santa Anita going 9 furlongs. Because "THE CAT" had to find room late, COLONEL JOHN got the jump on him for the stretch run. He was running down that rival late and even though he finished 2nd he did look like he was going best.

A very big race is expected next for this very talented colt. He is pointed for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 5 and sports some of the best late pace ratings of all on this list.

He won the Grade 3 San Rafael on January 12 going 8f at Santa Anita (a track record performance). 'Gato took over a quater of the way down the lane and was ridden out impressively to a 6 1/4 lengths win as he put away a nice horse named INDIAN SUN who is at the bottom of this list.

Had been sharp in the am leading up to the Sham. On February 15 "The Cat" worked 6f in a nice 1:114 over the Santa Anita main track.On February 9 he worked 5 furlongs in :583 breezing at Hollywood Park. The West coast clockers rarely give the "breezing" notation so this work was exceptional.

EL GATO MALO, which is Spanish for "The Bad Cat" is the gelded son of EL CORREDOR, won his first 3 career starts. Of those three wins for El Gato Malo include the aforementioned Grade 3 San Rafael and the 1 mile $75k Gold Rush at Golden Gate on December 15.

He has not been asked to run his best yet which means there's no telling how good he really can be. Very, no make that "extremely" promising.

VIDEO: Sham Stakes (G3)
VIDEO: San Rafael (G3)
VIDEO: Gold Rush ($75k) Win (Golden Gate)
VIDEO: Maiden Win (Hollywood Park)
NEXT START - Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 5 at Santa Anita
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#3 WAR PASS - Made a victorious 3yo debut in a non-condition $60k allowance as he won easily and effortlessly going 8f at Gulfstream on February 24 (Fountain of Youth card). The heavily favored 1-9 shot broke right on top at the start and was hard held by Cornelio Velasquez. Even though CV looked like a statue on him, WAR PASS ran the 2nd quarter mile in a swift :223 and came home the final quarter in :242 while still never being asked to run. The champ remains a perfect 5 for 5 on top.

Had been smokin' in the a.m. in prep for his 3yo debut including a 4 furlong move in a blistering :464 over the deep training track at Palm Meadows on February 2.

Won the 1 1/16 miles Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile which is no longer a jinxed race. Also won the Grade 1 Champagne at a mile in New York. Both of these races as well as his other 3 starts were won in gate-to-wire fashion. He is yet to be headed by any horse, at any call, for his entire career so far!

This CHEROKEE RUN colt remains undefeated after 5 lifetime starts and is trained by the very capable Nick Zito. Since Cberokee Run was the 1994 Sprint Champion, some question has been made to War Pass's pedigree to get a classic distance. Looking deep into his bloodlines we see stamina influence from his dam's side and his great-grand sire Blushing Groom had classic distance offsrping in RUNAWAY GROOM (War Pass's grandsire) who won 1982 Travers Stakes (G1), BLUSHING JOHN who the 1989 Hollywood Gold Cup Handicap (G1) and NASHWAN who won the 1989 Ever Ready Epsom Derby (England-Group 1)

VIDEO: Allowance Race at Gulfstream
VIDEO: Breeders Cup Juvenile (G1)
VIDEO: Champagne (G1)
VIDEO: Maiden Win (Saratoga)
NEXT START - Tampa Bay Derby (G3) March 15.
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#4 COOL COAL MAN - This colt has shown the ability to stalk the pace no matter how fast or slow it is dictated by the early leaders. That run style should prove to be a big asset in a race like the Kentucky Derby where a clean trip means a lot.

"CCM" Burst on to the scene with a game victory in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth by a 1/2 length. He sat second flight in the race and was just 2 lengths back at the 2nd call. Took over on the stretch turn and fended off a gritty ELYSIUM FIELDS down the lane. He improved his final time for 1 1/8 miles by 5 lengths over his 3yo debut at Gulfstream (also a win) in a 2nd level allowance event on January 26.

Has 2 wins as a 2yo before coming up rank in the Jockey Club Stakes. Nick Zito has this son of MINESHAFT (who was a Horse of the Year in 2003 and a $2.2 million earner) Mineshaft is by awesome sire 1992 Horse of the Year A.P. Indy and CCM represents his first crop.

Very interestingly, CCM's dam has a lot to like as well. Coral Sea is a Rubiano mare who has four winners from five foals to race, and is out of the NORTHERN DANCER mare South Sea Dancer, a full sister to Champion and big time sire STORM BIRD. To say Cool Coal Man is bred for a classic distance is an understatement!

He's most definitely on his best game right now and there is the question whether or not he has peaked to early or just beat a bunch that needed the race in the Fountain of Youth. If he's really that good it won't matter. Owned by Robert Lapenta who also has WAR PASS.

VIDEO: Jill Byrne Analysis
VIDEO: Fountain of Youth (G2)
VIDEO: Allowance Race at Gulfstream
VIDEO: Allowance Race at Churchill Downs (Nov 3)
NEXT START - Florida Derby (G1) on March 15 at Gulfstream
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#5 DENIS OF CORK - The buzz about this colt still continues. Denis worked 5f in 1:010 on March 9 at Fair Grounds. That work was rated 4th best out of 54 for that morning/distance. And Denis worked 5f in 1:013 breezing on March 2nd at Fair Grounds and this was the 10th best out of 60 to work that morning. It appears as though the Southwest Stakes did not take anything out of him and is good to go for the Rebel.

Remains undefeated after 3 career starts including a big win in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes going 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn Park on February 18. He did benefit in that race by being the best closer while catching the benefit of a fast pace up front.

This colt broke his maiden at Churchill Downs last year so there's no question that he likes the track. He's by sire HARLAN'S HOLIDAY and out of the UNBRIDLED mare UNBRIDLED GIRL. Harlan's Holiday was a multiple G1 winner of $3.6-million and is now a hot sire. HH has an impressive race resume: At 3 he won the Florida Derby (G1-$1,000,000 by 3 1/2 lengths), the Blue Grass Stakes (G1-$750,000 by 4 1/2 lengths) and at at 4 he won the Donn Handicap (G1-$500,000 by 2 1/2 lengths) and finished 2nd in the Dubai World Cup (G1)

Denis of Cork is named for a priest from County Cork who is a friend of the owners, William and Suzanne Warren.
VIDEO: Jill Byrne Analysis
VIDEO: Southwest Stakes (G3)
VIDEO: Allowance Win (Fair Grounds)
VIDEO: Maiden Win (Churchill Downs)
NEXT START - Rebel Stakes (G2) on March 15 at Oaklawn.
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#6 COLONEL JOHN - Showed his versatility while pressing a slow pace (:234, :500, 1:142, 1:382) in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes on March 1 at Santa Anita going 9 furlongs. His positioning made a big difference as he got the jump on EL GATO MALO at the top of the stretch and hung on for the win by just a 1/2 length. Winstar Farms and Eoin Harty have to be pleased with the win even though he was getting run down by EL GATO MALO late. This was his first start as a 3 year old and should be able to move forward off of this effort as he is pointed for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 5.

Showed a nice work tab leading up to the Sham Stakes including a 7f bullet on February 19 and a 5f drill in :583 (bullet best of 60 that morning for 5f) at Hollywood Park on February 7.

Got up for 2nd in the Grade 1 $750,000 Cash Call Futurity going 1 1/16 miles over the all-weather surface at Hollywood Park on December 22. Won the $100,000 Real Quiet Stakes at the same distance and track in November.

This son of TIZNOW has an awesome late kick and is bred top and bottom (TURKOMAN - damsire) to run a classic distance. Tiznow earned $6.4 million and won all of his most notable victories at a classic distance (1 1/4 miles).

VIDEO: Jill Byrne Analysis
VIDEO: Sham Stakes (G3)
VIDEO: Cash Call Futurity (G1)
VIDEO: Real Quite Stakes ($100k)
VIDEO: Maiden Win
NEXT START - Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 5 at Santa Anita

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You can view the whole list here:
http://www.fullcardreports.com/CAP/2008-Kentucky-Derby-Contenders.htm

46zilzal
03-11-2008, 04:38 PM
This early, all these reviews remind me of evaluating prospective college football players on their high school records.

Until they get into league with protagonists of the same, or near same quality, it is guess work who takes the next step.

zoobird
03-11-2008, 04:42 PM
Denis of Cork now being pointed for Wood or Illinois instead of Rebel.

xfile
03-11-2008, 07:24 PM
Yes, they have it updated again:

#5 DENIS OF CORK - The buzz about this colt still continues. It was just announced that he will skip the Rebel Stakes (G2) on Saturday March 15. He will make just one more start before the Kentucky Derby and trainer David Carroll said he would target either the Illinois Derby (G2) or Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) on April 5.


Denis worked 5f in 1:010 on March 9 at Fair Grounds. That work was rated 4th best out of 54 for that morning/distance. And Denis worked 5f in 1:013 breezing on March 2nd at Fair Grounds and this was the 10th best out of 60 to work that morning. It appears as though the Southwest Stakes did not take anything out of him.


Remains undefeated after 3 career starts including a big win in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes going 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn Park on February 18. He did benefit in that race by being the best closer while catching the benefit of a fast pace up front.


This colt broke his maiden at Churchill Downs last year so there's no question that he likes the track. He's by sire HARLAN'S HOLIDAY and out of the UNBRIDLED mare UNBRIDLED GIRL. Harlan's Holiday was a multiple G1 winner of $3.6-million and is now a hot sire. HH has an impressive race resume: At 3 he won the Florida Derby (G1-$1,000,000 by 3 1/2 lengths), the Blue Grass Stakes (G1-$750,000 by 4 1/2 lengths) and at at 4 he won the Donn Handicap (G1-$500,000 by 2 1/2 lengths) and finished 2nd in the Dubai World Cup (G1)


Denis of Cork is named for a priest from County Cork who is a friend of the owners, William and Suzanne Warren.

http://www.fullcardreports.com/images22/redflag.gif VIDEO: Jill Byrne Analysis (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/videos/604)
http://www.fullcardreports.com/images22/redflag.gif VIDEO: Southwest Stakes (G3) (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/videos/579)
http://www.fullcardreports.com/images22/redflag.gif VIDEO: Allowance Win (Fair Grounds) (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/videos/603)
http://www.fullcardreports.com/images22/redflag.gif VIDEO: Maiden Win (Churchill Downs) (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/videos/608)
NEXT START - Illinois Derby (G2) or Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) on April 5.

eastie
03-11-2008, 11:49 PM
The Fierce Wind blows. he looks like he wants it more than the rest. This reminds me of the Thunder Gulch year when money no longer became an object...;)

slewis
03-12-2008, 12:33 AM
The Fierce Wind blows. he looks like he wants it more than the rest. This reminds me of the Thunder Gulch year when money no longer became an object...;)

100 yds more and Big Truck passes him in the SAM Davis plus Truck had a tougher trip.

xfile
03-12-2008, 07:34 AM
:cool:
#9 YANKEE BRAVO - This colt seems way underrated. Of all the horses on this top 15 list (plus the 21 horses on the sub list) he has the 3rd best late pace ratings behind PYRO, COLONEL JOHN and BLACKBERRY ROAD. Yankee Bravo won his lone start in Europe and won 2 of 3 here. His only loss is a 3rd place effort behind PYRO. If you read the next paragraph it speaks loudly that YG could be a super dark horse (meant in the slang for aspirant getting little respect).


Got up for 3rd from dead last in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. Impressively, this son of YANKEE GENTLEMAN ran a faster final 2 1/2 furlongs than PYRO. YG came home in :293 to PYRO'S :302. Alex Solis, his regular rider, made the trip for this one. This being only his 4th start there is a lot of room for improvement. This colt looks very promising at this point.



Previously he was undefeated after 3 starts including the $150k California Derby going 1 1/16 miles at Golden Gate back on January 27.



http://www.fullcardreports.com/images22/redflag.gif VIDEO: Louisiana Derby (G2) (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/videos/711)
http://www.fullcardreports.com/images22/redflag.gif VIDEO: California Derby ($150k) (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/videos/428)
NEXT START - Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 5 at Santa Anita

eastie
03-13-2008, 10:42 AM
100 yds more and Big Truck passes him in the SAM Davis plus Truck had a tougher trip.

In other words.."they had their chance". they all had plenty of opportunity to win, but he wanted it more