Favorite Stats Question

[vacationofwealth]

I am new to the forum and really have enjoyed what I have read so far. I used to play a lot of horses with Pinnacle and now not so much as having that 7% rebate really helped the bottom line. And it also helped in not having to pay taxes on tris and the amount of money saved my not being in the pool keeping the prices big. I have yet to find a site to compare and unfortunately live in the US , so any advice on a good shop to play would be appreciated.

My main question is this, does anyone have hard stats on favortie percentages in coming in first , then percentage on how often the post time favorite comes in second, and then the percentage the favorites comes in third? I know the standard favorite percentage is roughly 35%, is it safe to say then half that to say the favorite comes in 2nd roughly 18% of the time and then 9% of the time will come in third?

Harness and thoroughbred numbers would be appreciated. Thanks again.

[DrunkenHorseplayer]

Consider Premier Turf Club; one drawback is that you can't bet every big-name track. BTW, if you're a winning player you can bet your bottom dollar that Pinny was sending your money into the pools.

[DanG]

My main question is this, does anyone have hard stats on favortie percentages in coming in first , then percentage on how often the post time favorite comes in second, and then the percentage the favorites comes in third? I know the standard favorite percentage is roughly 35%, is it safe to say then half that to say the favorite comes in 2nd roughly 18% of the time and then 9% of the time will come in third?

Last two years sorted by rank of tote odds:

(BTW: As was posted by the “Foster Brooks” of horseracing. [DrunkenHorsePlayer] PTC is the way to go. Just check this board under advertisers.)

rTOTE COUNT WINS W% WP% ROI AVG$ FLD
1 116091 40098 35% 55% $0.82 $4.74 8.2
2 109340 22870 21% 42% $0.81 $7.75 8.2
3 109537 16352 15% 32% $0.80 $10.66 8.2
4 109470 11404 10% 24% $0.77 $14.71 8.2
5 108637 8281 8% 18% $0.78 $20.41 8.2
6 102976 5176 5% 13% $0.71 $28.40 8.4
7 87403 3174 4% 10% $0.71 $38.97 8.8
8 65907 1732 3% 7% $0.69 $52.77 9.4
9 44988 921 2% 5% $0.70 $68.61 10.1
10 28129 344 1.2% 4% $0.54 $88.30 10.7
11 12015 122 1.0% 3% $0.54 $106.10 11.7
12 5920 47 0.8% 2% $0.52 $132.03 12.3
13 984 5 0.5% 2% $0.32 $125.90 13.6
14 394 2 0.5% 1% $0.29 $112.90 14.0

[vacationofwealth]

So if I am reading that correctly the post time favorite wins 35% of the races. Comes in exactly second 20% of the time. But what percentage does the favorite actually come in the third position. Is 10% a good guestimate. I will look into this paradise turf, what sort of rebate threshold are there with that site as it doesnt say much on website. I know its catered to each player but what can an avg player on that site expect in rebates. Thanks.

[rokitman]

paradise turf?

You drunk too?

[DanG]

So if I am reading that correctly the post time favorite wins 35% of the races. Comes in exactly second 20% of the time. But what percentage does the favorite actually come in the third position. Is 10% a good guestimate.
In that sample “14%”.




W: 35%
WP: 55%
WPS: 69%

[Cangamble]

In that sample “14%”.





W: 35%
WP: 55%
WPS: 69%

Dan, in your sample do you know what the average winning price was for all winners, and the average show price for all horses hitting the board were?
I'm just asking because I wanted to know how much breakage costs the player.

[DanG]

Dan, in your sample do you know what the average winning price was for all winners, and the average show price for all horses hitting the board were?
I'm just asking because I wanted to know how much breakage costs the player.
Slightly different sample size: Eliminated fld <6 to insure show betting was allowed. (Tote favorites only)



W: $4.82, 34%
P : $3.21, 54%
S : $2.64, 68%
If anyone can really make chalk show work for them…bless you my son. :)

[Cangamble]

Slightly different sample size: Eliminated fld <6 to insure show betting was allowed. (Tote favorites only)




W: $4.82, 34%
P : $3.21, 54%
S : $2.64, 68%
If anyone can really make chalk show work for them…bless you my son. :)
You misunderstood. I meant the average payoffs for all horses, favorites and longshots and middle priced horses included.
I'm thinking it is around $13 for win.

[DanG]

You misunderstood. I meant the average payoffs for all horses, favorites and longshots and middle priced horses included.
I'm thinking it is around $13 for win.
I’ll get back to this later; I’m in the middle of receiving a home depot order!

Sorry about the misunderstanding CG.

[vacationofwealth]

Thanks for the info on that. Am I blind or is that not on the original information you posted. Nonetheless I am glad to hear that that is 14%. I was expecting a lesser percentage. Thanks again.

[vacationofwealth]

Sorry I mean Premier Turf club, Too many trips to Phoenix I guess. And yes I am enjoying a nice woodchuck cider as I type!

[cnollfan]

Slightly different sample size: Eliminated fld <6 to insure show betting was allowed. (Tote favorites only)


W: $4.82, 34%
P : $3.21, 54%
S : $2.64, 68%
If anyone can really make chalk show work for them…bless you my son. :)

If I am reading this right, favorites to win ROI is - 18% while favorites to place improves to - 13% and favorites to show are better yet at - 10%.

[Cangamble]

If I am reading this right, favorites to win ROI is - 18% while favorites to place improves to - 13% and favorites to show are better yet at - 10%.
Not if you take breakage into consideration.

[ryesteve]

Not if you take breakage into consideration.
Breakage is already figured into the payouts... what else would you need to do to take it into consideration?

[Cangamble]

Breakage is already figured into the payouts... what else would you need to do to take it into consideration?
You are right. I was overthinking.
Show betting could even show better results though if it wasn't for rounding down breakage to the dime in Canada and to 20 cent intervals in the US.
http://www.trackthieves.com/Breakage.html

A horse that pays 2.40 to show in the US most probably should average paying 2.50 assuming that 2.41 is as likely as 2.59.
So there is a hidden takeout in this instance of another 20%

[raybo]

Slightly different sample size: Eliminated fld <6 to insure show betting was allowed. (Tote favorites only)





W: $4.82, 34%
P : $3.21, 54%
S : $2.64, 68%
If anyone can really make chalk show work for them…bless you my son. :)


I assume that there is no other factor, a factor that is available with or without cost from a publicly available source without any decision making process required, that produces a higher win%.